June 3rd 2018, 2am PST www.tooclosetocall.

ca
Based on the latest polls by Abacus(26), Ipsos(26), Innovative(28), Pollara(28), Angus-Reid(28), HK(29), Forum(30), Research Co.(30), Ekos(30) and Mainstreet(31)
OLP PC NDP Green
% 19.9 36.2 37.2 5.0
seats 5 68 50 1
chances of winning* 0.0% 70.5% 27.6% 0.0%
chances of a majority 0.0% 55.0% 17.1% 0.0% Probability to win the riding

OLP PC NDP Green OLP PC NDP Green

Ajax 29.9% 35.4% 31.4% 3.3% 18.68% 56.13% 25.19% 0.00%
Algoma—Manitoulin 5.8% 27.6% 63.3% 3.3% 0.00% 0.03% 99.97% 0.00%
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill 25.6% 44.9% 25.6% 3.9% 1.24% 97.30% 1.46% 0.00%
Barrie—Innisfil 19.4% 43.7% 30.8% 6.0% 0.06% 91.78% 8.16% 0.00%
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte 18.7% 44.7% 29.5% 7.1% 0.09% 94.79% 5.12% 0.00%
Bay of Quinte 17.2% 44.8% 32.6% 5.4% 0.04% 90.04% 9.92% 0.00%
Beaches—East York 21.3% 20.0% 53.0% 5.8% 0.00% 0.01% 99.99% 0.00%
Brampton Centre 20.2% 31.2% 42.3% 6.3% 0.15% 9.87% 89.98% 0.00%
Brampton East 14.8% 18.4% 64.7% 2.2% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Brampton North 21.3% 30.1% 44.9% 3.7% 0.18% 5.20% 94.62% 0.00%
Brampton South 25.5% 33.4% 37.5% 3.6% 3.85% 30.24% 65.91% 0.00%
Brampton West 26.4% 29.1% 41.7% 2.7% 3.15% 7.38% 89.47% 0.00%
Brantford—Brant 16.6% 38.0% 41.0% 4.4% 0.01% 37.99% 62.00% 0.00%
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound 9.0% 52.3% 29.8% 8.9% 0.00% 99.00% 1.00% 0.00%
Burlington 23.5% 42.9% 29.1% 4.5% 0.77% 92.61% 6.62% 0.00%
Cambridge 21.7% 38.8% 33.5% 6.0% 0.10% 52.14% 47.76% 0.00%
Carleton 13.6% 54.5% 25.9% 6.0% 0.00% 99.92% 0.08% 0.00%
Chatham-Kent—Leamington 4.8% 41.5% 48.3% 5.4% 0.00% 24.95% 75.05% 0.00%
Davenport 25.3% 13.7% 55.5% 5.5% 0.03% 0.00% 99.97% 0.00%
Don Valley East 34.9% 32.5% 28.7% 3.9% 51.71% 33.41% 14.88% 0.00%
Don Valley North 29.6% 39.9% 26.6% 3.8% 10.48% 84.59% 4.93% 0.00%
Don Valley West 32.6% 40.3% 23.4% 3.6% 18.47% 80.08% 1.45% 0.00%
Dufferin—Caledon 14.8% 43.2% 25.5% 16.4% 0.01% 97.83% 2.15% 0.01%
Durham 16.2% 38.2% 41.4% 4.2% 0.01% 36.29% 63.70% 0.00%
Eglinton—Lawrence 31.3% 41.5% 23.6% 3.5% 12.86% 85.88% 1.26% 0.00%
Elgin—Middlesex—London 1.0% 51.8% 42.0% 5.2% 0.00% 83.16% 16.84% 0.00%
Essex 0.9% 24.8% 70.8% 3.5% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Etobicoke Centre 28.0% 40.9% 28.0% 3.1% 5.50% 88.41% 6.09% 0.00%
Etobicoke—Lakeshore 26.3% 41.2% 28.0% 4.5% 3.12% 90.97% 5.91% 0.00%
Etobicoke North 22.3% 39.7% 35.5% 2.4% 0.49% 68.07% 31.44% 0.00%
Flamborough—Glanbrook 16.2% 41.2% 37.6% 5.0% 0.02% 65.86% 34.12% 0.00%
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell 29.7% 38.1% 28.4% 3.7% 15.19% 73.98% 10.83% 0.00%
Guelph 10.2% 28.0% 29.9% 31.9% 0.03% 22.21% 31.90% 45.86%
Haldimand—Norfolk 5.7% 55.8% 33.5% 5.1% 0.00% 98.76% 1.24% 0.00%
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock 17.1% 44.9% 33.5% 4.5% 0.01% 89.58% 10.41% 0.00%
Hamilton Centre 4.6% 16.5% 69.5% 9.5% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek 12.6% 22.1% 61.1% 4.2% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Hamilton Mountain 10.7% 21.3% 63.4% 4.6% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas 23.2% 31.3% 40.0% 5.5% 1.52% 16.12% 82.36% 0.00%
Hastings—Lennox and Addington 9.8% 45.8% 38.2% 6.2% 0.00% 77.72% 22.28% 0.00%
Humber River—Black Creek 22.6% 19.3% 56.1% 1.9% 0.00% 0.01% 99.99% 0.00%
Huron—Bruce 12.2% 44.6% 39.4% 3.8% 0.00% 70.32% 29.68% 0.00%
Kanata—Carleton 18.8% 46.8% 27.1% 7.2% 0.01% 98.54% 1.45% 0.00%
Kenora—Rainy River 4.9% 42.8% 49.2% 3.1% 0.00% 28.08% 71.92% 0.00%
Kiiwetinoong 0.0% 21.9% 74.2% 3.9% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Kingston and the Islands 18.8% 27.2% 45.9% 8.1% 0.16% 2.52% 97.32% 0.00%
King—Vaughan 29.8% 39.6% 27.2% 3.4% 12.36% 81.59% 6.05% 0.00%
Kitchener Centre 22.9% 31.7% 38.6% 6.7% 1.51% 22.41% 76.08% 0.00%
Kitchener—Conestoga 20.1% 41.3% 31.9% 6.7% 0.16% 85.09% 14.75% 0.00%
Kitchener South—Hespeler 20.2% 38.3% 34.9% 6.6% 0.36% 63.42% 36.22% 0.00%
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex 1.3% 50.9% 42.9% 4.9% 0.00% 78.31% 21.69% 0.00%
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston 6.3% 52.8% 33.4% 7.4% 0.00% 97.70% 2.30% 0.00%
Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes
1.5% 61.2% 32.1% 5.2% 0.00% 99.79% 0.21% 0.00%
London—Fanshawe 1.3% 27.8% 66.5% 4.3% 0.00% 0.04% 99.96% 0.00%
London North Centre 10.0% 35.1% 49.2% 5.7% 0.00% 7.27% 92.73% 0.00%
London West 4.6% 34.7% 56.4% 4.3% 0.00% 1.74% 98.26% 0.00%
Markham—Stouffville 27.6% 41.0% 27.3% 4.1% 5.19% 89.58% 5.23% 0.00%
Markham—Thornhill 29.6% 42.1% 25.6% 2.7% 7.65% 89.70% 2.65% 0.00%
Markham—Unionville 20.8% 48.8% 26.3% 4.1% 0.04% 99.19% 0.77% 0.00%
Milton 23.3% 43.6% 29.1% 3.9% 0.65% 94.30% 5.05% 0.00%
Mississauga Centre 30.3% 33.9% 32.4% 3.5% 22.01% 44.33% 33.66% 0.00%
Mississauga East—Cooksville 29.1% 35.6% 31.1% 4.2% 16.48% 58.18% 25.34% 0.00%
Mississauga—Erin Mills 28.6% 37.2% 31.4% 2.8% 11.38% 66.84% 21.78% 0.00%
Mississauga—Lakeshore 28.9% 40.8% 26.7% 3.6% 8.37% 86.83% 4.80% 0.00%
Mississauga—Malton 29.5% 31.5% 35.7% 3.3% 16.45% 25.23% 58.32% 0.00%
Mississauga—Streetsville 29.5% 36.6% 29.5% 4.4% 16.67% 67.04% 16.29% 0.00%
Mushkegowuk—James Bay 11.5% 17.7% 69.3% 1.5% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Nepean 21.3% 45.5% 27.4% 5.8% 0.08% 97.82% 2.10% 0.00%
Newmarket—Aurora 24.7% 43.7% 27.1% 4.5% 1.23% 95.50% 3.27% 0.00%
Niagara Centre 3.0% 30.3% 62.4% 4.3% 0.00% 0.02% 99.98% 0.00%
Niagara Falls 1.0% 35.4% 60.1% 3.5% 0.00% 0.74% 99.26% 0.00%
Niagara West 7.8% 52.2% 33.9% 6.2% 0.00% 97.02% 2.98% 0.00%
Nickel Belt 3.1% 21.8% 71.4% 3.7% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Nipissing 8.9% 47.6% 39.5% 4.1% 0.00% 79.76% 20.24% 0.00%
Northumberland—Peterborough South 20.7% 41.9% 32.8% 4.6% 0.23% 83.99% 15.78% 0.00%
Oakville 27.6% 44.5% 23.7% 4.1% 3.17% 95.94% 0.89% 0.00%
Oakville North—Burlington 25.6% 43.5% 27.2% 3.8% 2.03% 94.87% 3.10% 0.00%
Orléans 32.0% 38.9% 25.1% 4.1% 21.97% 74.43% 3.60% 0.00%
Oshawa 3.8% 35.2% 57.0% 4.0% 0.00% 1.18% 98.82% 0.00%
Ottawa Centre 31.7% 23.0% 36.4% 8.8% 30.17% 3.29% 66.54% 0.00%
Ottawa South 29.8% 37.4% 28.0% 4.8% 16.15% 72.69% 11.16% 0.00%
Ottawa—Vanier 35.5% 27.5% 31.1% 5.9% 60.66% 11.72% 27.62% 0.00%
Ottawa West—Nepean 25.8% 38.3% 29.2% 6.7% 5.46% 80.91% 13.63% 0.00%
Oxford 7.5% 51.0% 36.4% 5.1% 0.00% 93.01% 6.99% 0.00%
Parkdale—High Park 21.8% 18.2% 54.4% 5.6% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Parry Sound—Muskoka 8.1% 45.3% 27.2% 19.4% 0.00% 97.61% 2.39% 0.00%
Perth—Wellington 19.5% 44.4% 30.9% 5.2% 0.06% 93.09% 6.85% 0.00%
Peterborough—Kawartha 23.9% 38.0% 33.3% 4.7% 2.56% 68.47% 28.97% 0.00%
Pickering—Uxbridge 26.5% 39.2% 29.6% 4.7% 5.55% 82.66% 11.79% 0.00%
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke 1.5% 65.8% 29.2% 3.5% 0.00% 99.99% 0.01% 0.00%
Richmond Hill 27.3% 42.6% 26.4% 3.6% 3.76% 93.34% 2.90% 0.00%
Sarnia—Lambton 1.0% 44.3% 50.0% 4.7% 0.00% 28.71% 71.29% 0.00%
Sault Ste. Marie 19.9% 40.9% 36.5% 2.7% 0.29% 67.30% 32.41% 0.00%
Scarborough—Agincourt 27.8% 41.9% 27.4% 3.0% 4.39% 91.67% 3.94% 0.00%
Scarborough Centre 28.5% 30.2% 37.8% 3.5% 11.41% 16.05% 72.54% 0.00%
Scarborough—Guildwood 28.6% 35.5% 32.6% 3.2% 12.80% 56.14% 31.06% 0.00%
Scarborough North 21.2% 37.4% 39.6% 1.9% 0.24% 41.08% 58.68% 0.00%
Scarborough—Rouge Park 26.9% 31.7% 38.7% 2.6% 6.21% 18.97% 74.82% 0.00%
Scarborough Southwest 28.4% 28.2% 38.8% 4.6% 10.16% 8.19% 81.65% 0.00%
Simcoe—Grey 12.2% 51.6% 28.2% 8.0% 0.00% 99.47% 0.53% 0.00%
Simcoe North 16.3% 43.1% 32.3% 8.3% 0.01% 88.19% 11.80% 0.00%
Spadina—Fort York 27.4% 24.5% 42.1% 6.0% 4.69% 1.59% 93.72% 0.00%
St. Catharines 21.7% 34.7% 39.3% 4.3% 0.63% 31.20% 68.17% 0.00%
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry 1.6% 58.8% 36.5% 3.1% 0.00% 98.62% 1.38% 0.00%
Sudbury 20.6% 29.4% 46.3% 3.8% 0.17% 4.39% 95.44% 0.00%
Thornhill 25.1% 49.6% 22.7% 2.7% 0.21% 99.59% 0.20% 0.00%
Thunder Bay—Atikokan 30.0% 25.9% 40.1% 4.0% 13.45% 4.48% 82.07% 0.00%
Thunder Bay—Superior North 33.1% 19.9% 42.7% 4.3% 17.14% 0.47% 82.39% 0.00%
Timiskaming—Cochrane 4.5% 27.6% 65.8% 2.1% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Timmins 1.7% 41.2% 55.0% 2.1% 0.00% 9.73% 90.27% 0.00%
Toronto Centre 37.3% 20.0% 37.1% 5.6% 49.96% 0.43% 49.61% 0.00%
Toronto—Danforth 20.5% 15.5% 58.4% 5.6% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Toronto—St. Paul's 35.0% 32.0% 27.2% 5.8% 56.43% 32.60% 10.97% 0.00%
University—Rosedale 27.3% 25.5% 39.5% 7.7% 7.51% 3.79% 88.70% 0.00%
Vaughan—Woodbridge 35.0% 35.0% 27.3% 2.7% 45.64% 45.40% 8.96% 0.00%
Waterloo 15.7% 31.7% 47.4% 5.1% 0.00% 5.33% 94.67% 0.00%
Wellington—Halton Hills 15.3% 51.0% 26.1% 7.6% 0.00% 99.62% 0.38% 0.00%
Whitby 17.1% 45.1% 33.3% 4.5% 0.03% 90.64% 9.33% 0.00%
Willowdale 29.7% 39.1% 26.8% 4.3% 12.77% 81.85% 5.38% 0.00%
Windsor—Tecumseh 0.9% 19.1% 74.3% 5.6% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Windsor West 19.3% 19.5% 57.8% 3.4% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
York Centre 23.5% 39.8% 33.1% 3.6% 1.31% 76.79% 21.90% 0.00%
York South—Weston 26.8% 17.8% 52.6% 2.8% 0.28% 0.01% 99.71% 0.00%
York—Simcoe 19.6% 39.9% 33.9% 6.6% 0.17% 74.53% 25.30% 0.00%

*Winning=winning the most seats, excluding ties