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Energy Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000
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EnergyProcedia
Procedia139 (2017) 000–000
00 (2017) 624–630
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International Conference On Materials And Energy 2015, ICOME 15, 19-22 May 2015, Tetouan,
Morocco, and the International Conference On Materials And Energy 2016, ICOME 16, 17-20 May
2016, La Rochelle, France
The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling
Seismic vulnerability classification of roads
Assessing the feasibility aof using the heat demand-outdoor
Sonia Adafer *, Mahmoud Bensaibia
temperature function for a long-term district heat demand forecast
(a)
Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Travaux Publics –ENSTP
National School of Built and Ground Works Engineering Algiers, Algeria
I. Andrića,b,c*, A. Pina , P. Ferrão , J. Fournier ., B. Lacarrièrec, O. Le Correc
a a b
1, Rue Garidi BP 32, Vieux Kouba , 16051 , Alger Algérie
a
IN+ Center for Innovation, Technology and Policy Research - Instituto Superior Técnico, Av. Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal
b
Abstract Veolia Recherche & Innovation, 291 Avenue Dreyfous Daniel, 78520 Limay, France
c
Département Systèmes Énergétiques et Environnement - IMT Atlantique, 4 rue Alfred Kastler, 44300 Nantes, France
Experience from past earthquakes all over the world showed that the road network could undergo heavy damages. To prevent
these damages, vulnerability studies must be carried out.
The purpose of this study is to develop a seismic vulnerability assessment method for roads. The methodology is based on
Abstract
determination of a numerical indicator called Vulnerability Index (VI). To achieve this, the main parameters that influence the
seismic behaviour of roads are identified on the basis of the worldwide seismic feedback experience and data from past Algerian
District heating
earthquakes. networks the
Furthermore, are Analytical
commonlyHierarchyaddressedProcess
in the literature
(AHP) is as onetoofquantify
used the mosttheeffective
identifiedsolutions
parameters for and
decreasing
define anthe
greenhouse
analytical gas emissions
expression of thefrom
‘VI’.theA building sector.ofThese
classification systemsvulnerability
the seismic require high of
investments which
road sections is are returnedaccording
proposed, through theto heat
the
obtained Vulnerability
sales. Due Index (VI)
to the changed value.
climate conditions and building renovation policies, heat demand in the future could decrease,
To exhibit the
prolonging theefficiency
investmentof the developed
return period. method, several road sections are studied and the obtained results are in good adequacy
with
The in-situ observations.
main scope Moreover,
of this paper in order
is to assess to assess of
the feasibility theusing
seismic
the vulnerability
heat demand –ofoutdoor
an urban city road function
temperature network,for theheat
developed
demand
model is combined
forecast. The district to of
a GIS (Geographical
Alvalade, located in Information System) to
Lisbon (Portugal), wasperform
used asseveral
a caseearthquake
study. Thescenarios
district isand the results
consisted of
of 665
Tipaza city that
buildings are presented.
vary in both construction period and typology. Three weather scenarios (low, medium, high) and three district
renovation scenarios were developed (shallow, intermediate, deep). To estimate the error, obtained heat demand values were
compared with results from a dynamic heat demand model, previously developed and validated by the authors.
©The
2017 The Authors.
results showed thatPublished by Elsevier
when only weatherLtd.change is considered, the margin of error could be acceptable for some applications
Peer-review
(the error inunder
annualresponsibility
demand was of lower
the scientific
than 20% committee of ICOME
for all weather 2015 and
scenarios ICOME 2016.
considered). However, after introducing renovation
scenarios, the error value increased up to 59.5% (depending on the weather and renovation scenarios combination considered).
Keywords:
The valueEarthquake;
of slope roads; vulnerability
coefficient increasedindexon(VI); Analytical
average Hierarchy
within Process
the range of(AHP);seismic
3.8% up to 8% scenarios;classification
per decade, that corresponds to the
decrease in the number of heating hours of 22-139h during the heating season (depending on the combination of weather and
renovation scenarios considered). On the other hand, function intercept increased for 7.8-12.7% per decade (depending on the
1.coupled
Introduction
scenarios). The values suggested could be used to modify the function parameters for the scenarios considered, and
improve the accuracy of heat demand estimations.
Among lifelines, road network plays an important role in the daily life. It assures services such as transportation
© 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and
Cooling.
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +213-055-286-5764; fax:+213-023-901-738.
Keywords: Heat demand; Forecast; Climate change
E-mail address:s.bouafia@enstp.edu.dz
and socio-economic exchanges. Moreover, during major disasters such as earthquakes, it allows emergency
response, repair operations and recovery activities. Nevertheless, the road network may as well as other structures
suffer heavy damages due to seismic event. As a result, these damages induce delay in the rescue operations and
extensive socio-economic losses.
In order to reduce road seismic vulnerability, several studies have been carried out [1,2,3,4,5]. Methods for
performing seismic scenario have been developed taking into consideration road networks [6,7,8,9,10,11].
Among vulnerability assessment methods, the vulnerability index method is used for different lifelines [12]. It
consists in determining a value resulting from an analytical expression that contains several parameters. These
parameters are either qualitative or quantitative which differentially affect the system vulnerability. Furthermore, the
expression of the VI generally contains weighting coefficients. These weights may be calculated by applying
MCDM (Multi Criterion Decision Making) methods. These could take into account many parameters with different
nature and unequal importance [13].
Among the MCDM methods, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is commonly used. It was developed by Saaty
[14] and was used in different fields. Recently, many researchers have applied this method to assess seismic
vulnerability of tunnels [15], bridges [16], buildings [17], buildings construction site [18], lifelines [19] and urban
areas [20].
In this study, the vulnerability index method is applied to assess the seismic vulnerability of roads. Based on
feedback from past earthquakes over the world [21,22,23,24,25,26], and Algerian observations from AinTemouchent
and Zemmouri earthquakes [27,28], most important parameters that have an influence on seismic behavior of road
network are identified. Moreover, to take into consideration their relative importance, the AHP method is used to
derive weighting coefficient for each identified parameter.
Nomenclature
The developed methodology is based on the use of; firstly the vulnerability index method to identify the main
parameters affecting the seismic behavior of road structures and then the AHP method which allows determining the
weights of every identified parameter. The methodology consists in four basic steps. The description of each step is
given hereafter.
Roads vulnerability depends on their geometric and structural characteristics as well as geotechnical and seismic
proprieties of the location site. Factors that affect the seismic behaviour of the road are defined on the basis of
seismic experience of past earthquakes all over the world and in Algeria, thus, two types of parameters are identified:
Structural and Hazard ones. These parameters are divided into items. In turn, the identified items are divided into
factors and factors are subdivided in categories, as given in Table 1 (Appendix. A).
626 Sonia Adafer et al. / Energy Procedia 139 (2017) 624–630
Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000 3
Using the AHP method, a hierarchical structure is built in order to model the problem. The hierarchical structure
is established through the defined parameters and their characteristics. Then, pairwise comparisons are performed
and the validated weighting coefficients are determined for each parameter, item and factor (Table1).
Based on the results of the previous stages, the analytical expression of the vulnerability index (VI) is developed
as follows:
2 3 or 4 2 or 3
VI = ∑ W i ∑ W ij ∑ W ijk . C ijkl (1)
i =1 j =1 k =1
With:
Wi the weighting coefficient of structural or hazard parameter,
Wij the weighting coefficient of item,
Wijk the weighting coefficient of factor, where Wijk=1 if i=2
And Cijkl the score of category, where l = 2 or 3 or 4 or 5.
According to the value obtained for the vulnerability index, three vulnerability ranges VR1, VR2 and VR3 are
proposed (Table 2):
The VR1 range associated to the green colour classifies the road section as safe; it suffers a little or no damages. No
requirement to any repairs is necessary.
The VR2 range associated to the orange colour classifies the road section as moderately resistant; it suffers moderate
Sonia Adafer et al. / Energy Procedia 139 (2017) 624–630 627
4 Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000
3. Developed program
A program under Matlab software is developed in order to compute the vulnerability index. This program is
called RSVI ‘Road Seismic Vulnerability Index’. The flow chart of this program is given in Fig. 1.
4. Application
To show the efficiency and validate the developed model, using the RSVI program, several road sections have
been studied. Furthermore, this model can be used to achieve seismic scenarios in order to predict the behaviour of
roads under seismic event.
Several road sections have been treated using the developed model of VI. Two case studies are presented in this
section.
• Case study 1: It is about a road in AinTemouchent a town located in West of Algiers (about 360 km). It is a
section of the national road (RN35) located in Ain Temouchent at the kilometer marker 19+500. This road
section crosses a soft soil and includes a high embankment (H=7m).
On 22 December 1999, the North of Algeria was struck by a shallow earthquake, namely Ain Temouchent
earthquake [29]. Its Mercalli Modified Intensity was VII and caused considerable damages to Ain Temouchent
and its suburb [27].
Using the RSVI program, the obtained vulnerability index (VI) is equal 13.58. This value is included in range
VR1; hence the road section is classified green. The results of this study are in a good adequacy with in-situ
observations. In fact, this road section did not suffer any damages after the quake [27].
• Case study 2: The studied road is situated nearby the town of Boumerdes in East Algiers (about 70 km). It is
related to a section of the national road (RN68) located in the suburb of Boumerdes. This road section crosses a
liquefiable silts and sand and includes a low embankment (H=4m).
On 21 May 2003 Boumerdes earthquake struck Zemmouri region in the north of Algeria (MMI=X). It damaged
many structures, bridges and roads through the town and the region nearby [30].
628 Sonia Adafer et al. / Energy Procedia 139 (2017) 624–630
Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000 5
Using the RSVI program, the obtained vulnerability index (VI) is equal 28.99. This value is included in range
VR2; hence the road section is classified orange. The seismic vulnerability of this section road is mainly due to
the liquefaction phenomenon in the area. The result of this study is in a good adequacy with in-situ observations.
In fact, this road section needed recovery operations after the quake [28].
The road network of Tipaza city has been chosen to be investigated. This town is located in the North of Algeria.
It experienced some moderate to strong earthquakes and is well-known for its active faults [31] .
In order to assess the seismic vulnerability of the main road network of Tipaza, several earthquake scenarios were
performed. The road network about 9518 meters was decomposed into 73 road sections according to their features.
Then, using the RSVI program, a VI was obtained for each road section. Using a GIS, a vulnerability map of the
road network was carried out for every seismic scenario. Hereafter, the results of two performed seismic scenarios
are presented.
• Seismic scenario 1: It corresponds to a seismic intensity MMI=VIII. As it can be noticed in Fig.2 (a), the 73 road
sections are classified in VR1 (green class). Accordingly, the whole of the road network has a low seismic
vulnerability. These results are in a good adequacy with in-situ observations after Chenoua Earthquake of 1989,
the road network of the city had undergone no damages [32].
• Seismic scenario 2: It is for a seismic intensity MMI=IX. As it can be seen in Fig.2 (b), all the road sections are
classified in VR2 (orange class). Accordingly, the whole of the road network has a moderate seismic
vulnerability. This is due to the features of the road network: location on hard soil, no high embankments, no
landslides, no liquefaction phenomenon and the latest retrofitting in 2009 was compliant with the standards.
5. Conclusion
From this study, it can be drawn that a seismic vulnerability classification for roads is developed on the basis of a
defined Vulnerability Index (VI). Its efficiency is established in several studies. This method allows defining the
prioritization of the retrofitting operations during an earthquake to safeguard the functionality of the road network.
The developed model is also used to perform seismic scenario that is very useful to highlight which seismic event
could seriously damage a given road. Moreover, the outcomes of this pre-earthquake assessment enable to propose
recommendations or actions to improve weak features of studied roads in order to ensure their performance against
future earthquakes. Additionally, this tool is very useful for emergency management and urban planning.
Fig. 2. Vulnerability Map of the road network: (a) Seismic scenario 1; (b) Seismic scenario 2.
Sonia Adafer et al. / Energy Procedia 139 (2017) 624–630 629
6 Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000
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