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Chapter 7 7.1

An alternative to reporting a single If after observing X1 = x1,…, Xn = xn, we

value for the parameter being estimated compute the observed sample mean x, then

Statistical Intervals is to calculate and report an entire Basic Properties of a 95% confidence interval for µ can be

Based on a interval of plausible values – a Confidence Intervals expressed as

confidence interval (CI). A confidence σ σ

Single Sample level is a measure of the degree of x − 1.96 ⋅

n

, x + 1.96 ⋅

n

reliability of the interval.

Other Levels of Confidence Other Levels of Confidence Sample Size

Let X1,…, Xn denote the sample on which

z curve A 100(1 − α )% confidence interval for The general formula for the sample size the CI for the parameter θ is to be based.

shaded area = α / 2 the mean µ of a normal population Suppose a random variable satisfying the

n necessary to ensure an interval width

1−α when the value of α is known is given w is following properties can be found:

by 1. The variable depends functionally on

− zα / 2 0 zα / 2 2

σ σ σ both X1,…,Xn and θ .

x − zα / 2 ⋅ , x + zα / 2 ⋅ n = 2zα / 2 ⋅

P ( − zα / 2 ≤ Z ≤ zα / 2 ) = 1 − α n n w

2. The probability distribution of the

variable does not depend on θ or any

other unknown parameters.

Let h( X1,..., X n ;θ ) denote this random 7.2 If n is sufficiently large, the standardized

Now suppose that the inequalities can be

variable. In general, the form of h is variable

manipulated to isolate θ : X −µ

usually suggested by examining the

distribution of an appropriate estimator

Large-Sample Z=

S/ n

P (l ( X1,..., X n )) < θ < u ( X1,..., X n ))

θˆ. For any α between 0 and 1, constants Confidence Intervals has approximately a standard normal

distribution. This implies that

a and b can be found to satisfy lower confidence

limit

upper confidence

limit for a Population Mean x ± zα / 2 ⋅

s

n

P (a < h( X1,..., X n ;θ ) < b) = 1 − α

For a 100(1 − α )% CI.

and Proportion is a large-sample confidence interval

P (l ( X1,..., X n )) < θ < u ( X1,..., X n )) for µ with level 100(1 − α )%.

Proportion p with level 100(1 − α )% for µ Normal Distribution

7.3

Upper Confidence Bound:

Lower(–) and upper(+) limits: s The population of interest is normal, so that

µ < x + zα ⋅

n

Intervals Based on a X1,…, Xn constitutes a random sample from

zα2 / 2 ˆ ˆ zα2 / 2

pq Lower Confidence Bound: Normal Population a normal distribution with both

pˆ + zα / 2 + 2 µ and σ unknown.

2n n 4n s

= µ > x − zα ⋅ Distribution

( 2

1 + zα / 2 ) /n n

t Distribution Properties of t Distributions Properties of t Distributions

Let tv denote the density function curve t Critical Value

When X is the mean of a random sample 3. As v increases, the spread of the

of size n from a normal distribution with for v df. corresponding tv curve decreases.

mean µ , the rv Let tα ,v = the number on the measurement

1. Each tv curve is bell-shaped and 4. As v → ∞, the sequence of tv

X −µ axis for which the area under the t curve

T= centered at 0.

S/ n curves approaches the standard with v df to the right of

2. Each tv curve is spread out more normal curve (the z curve is called a tα ,v is α ; tα ,v is called a t critical value.

has a probability distribution called a t t curve with df = ∞.

distribution with n – 1 degrees of freedom than the standard normal (z) curve.

(df).

Let x and s be the sample mean and

tv curve standard deviation computed from the

shaded area = α results of a random sample from a

normal population with mean µ .The

100(1 − α )% confidence interval is

0

s s

tα ,v x − tα / 2, n−1 ⋅ , x + tα / 2 , n −1 ⋅

n n

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