EXAMEN FINAL

PRESENTADO POR:

ESCALANTE GONZALEZ RAZIEL CÓD. 101313819

GARCIA VELEZ MARI LUZ CÓD. 101311119
MOVILLA PAREJO LAURA CÓD. 101310111

GRUPO: AD

DANIEL ROMERO RODRIGUEZ

UNIVERSIDAD AUTÓNOMA DEL CARIBE

GESTIÓN CADENA DE SUMINISTRO

FACULTAD DE INGENIERIA

BARRANQUILLA

2017 - 01
Problem 1.

Flextrol, Inc., and electronics systems integrator, is planning to design a key

component for their next- generation product with Solectrics. Flextrol will integrate
the component with some software and then sell it to consumers. Given the short
life cycles of such products and the long lead times quoted by Solectrics, Flextrol
only has one opportunity to place an order with Solectrics prior to the beginning of
its selling season. Flextrol’s demand during the season is normally distributed with
a mean of 1000 and a standard deviation of 500.

Solectrics’ production cost for the component is $50 per unit and it plans to sell the
component for $71 per unit to Flextrol. Flextrol incurs essentially no cost
associated with the software integration and handling of each unit. Flextrol sells
these units to consumers for $120 each. Flextrol can sell unsold inventory at the
end of the season in a secondary electronics market for $52 each. The existing
contract specifies that once Flextrol places the order, no changes are allowed to it.
Also, Solectrics does not accept any returns of unsold inventory, so Flextrol must
dispose of excess inventory in the secondary market.

a. What is the probability that Flextrol’s demand will be within 25 percent of its
forecast (Expected value)?

b. What is the probability that Flextrol’s demand will be more than 40 percent
greater than its forecast?

c. Under this contract, how many units should Flextrol order to maximize its
expected profit? Now assuming that Flextrol is going to order 1250 units (Q=1250),
answer the following questions:

d. What are Flextrol’s expected sales?

e. How many units of inventory can Flextrol expect to sell in the secondary
electronics market?

f. What is Flextrol’s expected profit?

g. What is Solectrics’ expected profit?

h. Imagine that Flextrol is able to predict the demand without a forecast error. What
would be the maximum profit under this ideal scenario? (Hint: a perfect forecast
means that there are no expected lost sales nor expected leftover inventory.

2
a. What is the probability that Flextrol’s demand will be within 25 percent of
its forecast (Expected value)?

Flextrol
Demanda 1000
σ 500
Precio venta $120 c/u
Vs $52 c/u
C $71 c/u

Si la demanda es de 1000 y se espera que se encuentre un 25% dentro de su

pronóstico, se procede a calcular la probabilidad a continuación:

𝐃𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐚 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥 = 𝐃 𝐱 𝟐𝟓%

𝐷𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎 𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑙 = 1000 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑑 𝑥 25%

𝐷𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎 𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑙 = 250 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑𝑒𝑠

Conociendo la demanda real se calcula el valor de Z:

𝑫𝒆𝒎𝒂𝒏𝒅𝒂 𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒍 = 𝑫𝒆𝒎𝒂𝒏𝒅𝒂 𝒎𝒆𝒅𝒊𝒂 + 𝛔(𝐙)

𝑫𝒆𝒎𝒂𝒏𝒅𝒂 𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒍 − 𝑫𝒆𝒎𝒂𝒏𝒅𝒂 𝒎𝒆𝒅𝒊𝒂

𝒁=
𝛔
𝟐𝟓𝟎 − 𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎
𝒁=
𝟓𝟎𝟎
𝒁 = −𝟏. 𝟓

Ubicamos este Z en la tabla de distribución Normal:

P (-1,5) = 0,0668

La probabilidad de que la demanda real sea un 25% dentro de su pronóstico es de

0,0668≈ 6,68%

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b. What is the probability that Flextrol’s demand will be more than 40 percent
greater than its forecast?

𝐃𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐚 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥 = 𝐃 𝐱 𝟒𝟎%

𝐷𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎 𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑙 = 1000 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑑 𝑥 40% +1000

𝐷𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎 𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑙 = 1400 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑𝑒𝑠

Conociendo la demanda real se calcula el valor de Z:

𝑫𝒆𝒎𝒂𝒏𝒅𝒂 𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒍 = 𝑫𝒆𝒎𝒂𝒏𝒅𝒂 𝒎𝒆𝒅𝒊𝒂 + 𝛔(𝐙)

𝑫𝒆𝒎𝒂𝒏𝒅𝒂 𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒍 − 𝑫𝒆𝒎𝒂𝒏𝒅𝒂 𝒎𝒆𝒅𝒊𝒂

𝒁=
𝛔
1400 − 1000
𝒁=
500
𝒁 = 0,8

Ubicamos este Z en la tabla de distribución Normal:

P (0,8) = 0,7881

La probabilidad de que la demanda real sea un 40% mayor que el pronóstico es

de 0,7881≈ 78,81%

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c. Under this contract, how many units should Flextrol order to maximize its
expected profit?

Flextrol
Demanda 1000
σ 500
Precio venta $120 c/u
Vs $52 c/u
C $71 c/u

Para calcular la cantidad óptima a pedir para maximizar las ganancias se procede
a calcular el costo de faltantes y excedentes:

Costo de faltantes:

𝐂𝐅 = 𝐏𝐕 − 𝐂 + 𝐁

CF = $120 − $71

CF = $49

Costo de excedentes:

𝑪𝐄 = 𝐂 − 𝐕𝐒

CE = $71 − $52

CE = $19

Nivel de servicio a ofrecer:

𝐂𝐅
𝑷(𝑫 ≤ 𝑸) =
𝑪𝑭 + 𝑪𝑬

$49
𝑃(𝐷 ≤ 𝑄) = = 0,7205
$49 + 19

Ubicamos la probabilidad en la tabla de distribución Normal:

Z0, 7205 = 0,59

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Se procede a calcular la cantidad óptima a pedir:

𝐐 = 𝐗 + 𝐙𝛂(𝛔)

𝑄 = 1000 + 0,59(500)

𝑄 = 1295 unidades

Now assuming that Flextrol is going to order 1250 units (Q=1250), answer the
following questions:

d. What are Flextrol’s expected sales?

Flextrol
Demanda 1000
σ 500
Precio venta $120 c/u
VS $52 c/u
C $71 c/u
Q 1250 und
z 0,7205

Para calcular las ventas perdidas esperadas debemos calcular primero las ventas
perdidas esperadas:

𝐕𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐬 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐝𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐬 𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐚𝐬 = 𝛔 ∗ 𝐋(𝐳)

L(z) = L(0,7205) = 0,1381

Ventas perdidas esperadas = 500(0,1381)

Ventas perdidas esperadas = 69,05 und

Calculamos las ventas esperadas:

𝐕𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐬 𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐚𝐬 = 𝐝𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐚 𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐚𝐬 − 𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐬 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐝𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐬 𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐚𝐬

Ventas esperadas = 1250 − 69,05

Ventas esperadas = 1250 − 69,05

Ventas esperadas = 1180,95 unidades

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e. How many units of inventory can Flextrol expect to sell in the secondary
electronics market?

Se calcula los excedentes esperados:

𝐄𝐱𝐜𝐞𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐨𝐬 = 𝐐 − 𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐬 𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐚𝐬

𝐄𝐱𝐜𝐞𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐨𝐬 = 1250 − 1180,95

𝐄𝐱𝐜𝐞𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐨𝐬 = 1228,06 unidades

f. What is Flextrol’s expected profit?

𝐆𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐚 𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐚
= [(PV − C)venta esp. −(C − VS)Excedente esp. −B
∗ Ventas perdidas esp.

𝐆𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐚 𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐚
= [($120 − $71) ∗ 1180,95 − ($71 − $52) ∗ 1228,06 − 0 ∗ 69,05

𝐆𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐚 𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐚 = $34,533.41

g. What is Solectrics’ expected profit?

Soletrics’s
C $50 c/u

𝐆𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐚 𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐚 = [(PV − C) ∗ D

𝐆𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐚 𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐚 = [($71 − $50) ∗ 1000

𝐆𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐚 𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐚 = $21,000

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h. Imagine that Flextrol is able to predict the demand without a forecast error.
What would be the maximum profit under this ideal scenario? (Hint: a perfect
forecast means that there are no expected lost sales nor expected leftover
inventory.

8
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