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exceeds 3.3 (10). Geological studies report a no- have deleterious consequences for reef ecosys- density. However, erosion could be promoted
table gap in the fossil record of calcified organisms, tems. First, the most direct response is a decreased by the activities of grazing animals such as
including reef-building corals (14) and calcare- linear extension rate and skeletal density of coral parrotfish, which prefer to remove carbonates
ous algae (15), during the early Triassic when colonies. The massive coral Porites on the Great from lower-density substrates. Increasingly
[CO2]atm increased dramatically and reached levels Barrier Reef has shown reductions in linear ex- brittle coral skeletons are also at greater risk
at least five times as high as today’s (16). Phylo- tension rate of 1.02% year−1 and in skeletal den- of storm damage (21); thus, if rates of erosion
genetic studies suggest that corals as a group sity of 0.36% year−1 during the past 16 years (20). outstrip calcification, then the structural com-
survived the Permian-Triassic extinction event (14) This is equivalent to a reduction of 1.29% year−1 plexity of coral reefs will diminish, reducing
but may have done so through forms lacking cal- or a 20.6% drop in growth rate (the product of habitat quality and diversity. A loss of struc-
cified skeletons (17, 18). Although Scleractinian linear extension rate and skeletal density) over the tural complexity will also affect the ability of
(modern) corals arose in the mid-Triassic and lived 16-year period. While at present it is not possible reefs to absorb wave energy and thereby impairs
under much higher [CO2]atm, there is no evidence to confidently attribute the observed decrease in coastal protection.
that they lived in waters with low-carbonate growth and calcification to ocean acidification, it Third, corals may maintain both skeletal growth
mineral saturation. Knoll et al. succinctly state that is consistent with changes reported in oceanic pH and density under reduced carbonate saturation
“it is the rapid, unbuffered increase in [CO2]atm and carbonate-ion concentrations. by investing greater energy in calcification. A
and not its absolute values that causes impor- Second, corals may maintain their physical likely side effect of this strategy is the diversion
tant associated changes such as reduced [CO32− ], extension or growth rate by reducing skeletal of resources from other essential processes, such
pH, and carbonate as reproduction, as
saturation of sea wa- Table 1. Rates of change in atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2 ]atm, ppm/100 years) and global temperature seen in chronic stress
ter” (19). The rate of (°C/100 years) calculated for the past 420,000 yr B.P. using the Vostok Ice Core data (5) and compared to changes (21), which could ul-
[CO2]atm change is over the last century and those projected by IPCC for low-emission (B1) and high-emission (A2) scenarios (8). Rates timately reduce the
were calculated for each successive pair of points in the Vostok Ice Core record by dividing the difference between two
critical given that larval output from
sequential values (ppm or °C) by the time interval between them. Rates were then standardized to the change seen
modern genotypes reefs and impair the
over 100 years. Ratios of each rate relative to the mean rate seen over the past 420,000 years are also calculated.
and phenotypes of potential for recolo-
corals do not appear [CO2]atm Ratio (relative to Temperature Ratio (relative to nization following
to have the capacity Period (ppm century−1) past 420,000 years) (°C century−1) past 420,000 years) disturbances.
to adapt fast enough
to sudden environ- Past 420,000 years (99% 0.07 + 0.223 1 0.01 + 0.017 1 Resilience and
confidence interval; n = 282) Tipping Points
mental change.
Reef-building Past 136 years (1870–2006) 73.53 1050 0.7 70
Maintaining ecologi-
corals may exhibit IPCC B1 scenario: 550 ppm 170 2429 1.8 180
cal resilience is the
at 2100
several responses central plank of any
to reduced calcifi- IPCC A2 scenario: 800 ppm 420 6000 3.4 420
strategy aiming to
at 2100
cation, all of which preserve coral reef
Fig. 3. Ecological feedback processes on a coral reef showing pathways of first factor has a negative (decreasing) influence on the box indicated. Green
disturbance caused by climate change. Impact points associated with ocean arrows denote positive (increasing) relationships. Over time, the levels of
acidification (e.g., reduced reef rugosity, coralline algae) are indicated by the factors in hexagonal boxes will increase, whereas those in rectangular boxes
blue arrows, and impact points from global warming (e.g., bleached and will decline. Boxes with dashed lines are amenable to local management
dead corals) by the red arrows. Boxes joined by red arrows denote that the intervention.
200 mmol kg−1 (aragonite saturation < 3.3) and sea coral reefs as we know them today would be ex- through their impact on coastal protection, fish-
temperatures above +2°C relative to today’s val- tremely rare at higher [CO2]atm. eries, and tourism. These consequences become
ues (Scenario CRS-C, Fig. 1). These changes will We recognize that physiological acclimation or successively worse as [CO2]atm increases, and un-
reduce coral reef ecosystems to crumbling frame- evolutionary mechanisms could delay the arrival of manageable for [CO2]atm above 500 ppm.
works with few calcareous corals (Fig. 5C). The some scenarios. However, evidence that corals and Although reefs with large communities of coral
continuously changing climate, which may not their symbionts can adapt rapidly to coral bleach- reef-related organisms persist under CRS-A and
stabilize for hundreds of years, is also likely to ing is equivocal or nonexistent. Reef-building CRS-B, they become nonfunctional under CRS-C,
impede migration and successful proliferation of corals have relatively long generation times and as will the reef services that currently underpin
alleles from tolerant populations owing to con- low genetic diversity, making for slow rates of human welfare. Climate change is likely to fun-
tinuously shifting adaptive pressure. Under these adaptation. Changes in species composition are damentally alter the attractiveness of coral reefs to
conditions, reefs will become rapidly eroding also possible but will have limited impact, as even tourists (compare Fig. 5, A and C), which is an
rubble banks such as those seen in some inshore the most thermally tolerant corals will only sustain important consideration for the many low-income
regions of the Great Barrier Reef, where dense temperature increases of 2° to 3°C above their coastal countries and developing small island states
populations of corals have vanished over the long-term solar maxima for short periods (24, 31). lying within coral reef regions. Under-resourced
past 50 to 100 years. Rapid changes in sea level However, such changes come at a loss of bio- and developing countries have the lowest capacity
(+23 to 51 cm by 2100, scenario A2) (8), diversity and the removal of important redundan- to respond to climate change, but many have
coupled with slow or nonexistent reef growth, cies from these complex ecosystems. Some studies tourism as their sole income earner and thus are at
may also lead to “drowned” reefs (36) in which have shown that corals may promote one variety risk economically if their coral reefs deteriorate
corals and the reefs they build fail to keep up of dinoflagellate symbiont over another in the (40). For instance, tourism is a major foreign ex-
with rising sea levels. relatively small number of symbioses that have change earner in the Caribbean basin and in some
The types of synergistic impacts on coral and significant proportions of multiple dinoflagellate countries accounts for up to half of the gross do-
reef-dependent organisms defined for Scenario types (38). These phenotypic changes extend the mestic product (40). Coral reefs in the United
CRS-B (Fig. 5B) will be magnified substantially plasticity of a symbiosis (e.g., by 1° to 2°C) (21) States and Australia may supply smaller compo-
for CRS-C (Fig. 5C), with probably half, and pos- but are unlikely to lead to novel, long-lived as- nents of the total economy, but still generate con-
sibly more, of coral-associated fauna becoming rare sociations that would result in higher thermal siderable income (many billions of U.S. $ per year)
or extinct given their dependence on living corals tolerances (39). The potential for acclimation even from reef visitors that are increasingly responsive
and reef rugosity (37). Macroalgae may dominate to current levels of ocean acidification is also low to the quality of reefs (41).
in some areas and phytoplankton blooms may be- given that, in the many studies done to date, coral Reef rugosity is an important element for the
come more frequent in others, as water quality de- calcification has consistently been shown to de- productivity of all reef-based fisheries, whether sub-
clines owing to the collateral impact of climate crease with decreasing pH and does not recover as sistence, industrial, or to supply the aquarium trade.
change on associated coastal areas, drying catch- long as conditions of higher acidity persist (13). The density of reef fish (32) is likely to decrease as
ments and causing episodic heavy rainfall that a result of increasing postsettlement mortality aris-
transports nutrients and sediments into coastal areas. Socioeconomic Impacts of Coral Reef Decline ing from a lack of hiding places and appropriate
Whether or not one defines the transition from The scenarios presented here are likely to have se- food for newly settled juveniles (42). Regardless of
CRS-B to CRS-C and [CO2]atm of 450 to 500 ppm rious consequences for subsistence-dependent so- future climate-change influences, the total landing
as the tipping point for coral reefs, it is clear that cieties, as well as on wider regional economies of coral reef fisheries is already 64% higher than