Farmer suicides rise in India as warm climate

damages crops, shows study

AP
Published : Aug 1, 2017, 12:12 pm IST

Updated : Aug 1, 2017, 12:13 pm IST

The study suggests India will see more such tragedies as climate change brings hotter temperatures that damage crops and exacerbate
drought.

Experts said the study's findings should raise alarms, especially with India's average temperatures expected to rise another
3 degrees C. (Photo: AFP)

New Delhi: When Rani's husband died by drinking pesticide, he left the family in debt. But even if they could pay off the loans, Rani
said their farming days are over.

"There are no rains," said the 44-year-old woman from drought-stricken Tamil Nadu, one of hundreds of farmers protesting in the capital
for more government support. "Even for drinking, we get water only once in 10 days."

A study suggests India will see more such tragedies as climate change brings hotter temperatures that damage crops and exacerbate
drought. For every 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming above 20 degrees C (68 degrees F) during the growing season
in India, there are 67 more suicides on average, according to the findings published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy
of Sciences, or PNAS.
The message "is that farming is an inherently risky occupation, with annual incomes often held hostage to the weather, and it's getting
riskier in the era of climate change," said Vikram Patel, an Indian psychiatrist and mental health expert with Harvard Medical School in
Boston, who was not involved in the study.

Experts said the study's findings should raise alarms, especially with India's average temperatures expected to rise another 3 degrees C
(5.4 degrees F) by 2050. That will bring more erratic weather events, more drought and stronger storms.

"Anything that will affect occupational stability is going to affect farmers' mental health," Patel said.

Farming has always been considered a high-risk profession, and a single damaged harvest can drive some to desperation. With
agriculture supporting more than half of India's 1.3 billion people, farmers have long been seen as the heart and soul of the country. But
they've also seen their economic clout diminish over the last three decades. Once accounting for a third of India's gross domestic product,
they now contribute only 15 percent of India's $2.26 billion economy.

There are many factors that can contribute to suicide, including poor crop yields, financial devastation or debt, access to easy methods of
self-harm, or a lack of community support. In India, many farmers drink toxic pesticides as a way out of backbreaking debt, with the
government in some cases guaranteeing monetary aid to their surviving families. That provides a perverse incentive for suicide,
"rewarding people who end their lives by paying family compensation, but only if they die," Patel said.

"We may not be able to stop the world from warming, but that doesn't mean we can't do something to address suicide," including
providing more financial stability and paying more attention to mental health, he said.

The study released Monday should make those efforts even more urgent, experts said.

"It provides evidence for a causal pathway - from unfavorable weather to poor crop yields to rural misery to increased suicide," said Dr.
Howard Frumkin, a University of Washington environmental health professor who was not involved in the study. "With climate change
bringing increasingly chaotic weather in many places, this causal pathway is likely to intensify."

India's farms are already hit regularly by strong storms, extreme drought, heat waves and other extreme weather events. Some still rely
on rainfall rather than irrigation to water their crops. Scientists have shown that extreme weather events are already increasing as the
planet warms.

For the study, researcher Tamma Carleton looked at suicide data from India's National Crime Records Bureau between 1967 and 2013,
along with data on agricultural crop yields and on temperature change.

"I estimate that warming temperature trends over the last three decades have already been responsible for over 59,000 suicides
throughout India," writes Carleton, who studies agriculture and resource economics at the University of California, Berkeley. In other
words, warmer temperatures were a factor accounting for a 6.8 percent increase in suicides, the study says.

She noted limitations in the study, including an inability to differentiate between urban and rural suicides because the crime records
bureau only began classifying farmer suicides in 1995. Other experts also noted that the actual number of suicides may be higher than the
crime database counted, but said these concerns were unlikely to undermine the study's core findings.

India's farmers, often complaining about being ignored, hold frequent protests to demand better crop prices, more loan waivers and even
water delivery systems to guarantee irrigation during dry spells. Sometimes, they stage sit-ins or dump truckloads of vegetables onto
highways to disrupt traffic.

For the past month, hundreds of farmers - some carrying human skulls they say are from farmers who committed suicide in the drought-
stricken southern state of Tamil Nadu - have been staging what they say will be a 100-day protest in a central New Delhi square to
"prevent the suicide of farmers who feed the nation."

The government recently introduced legislation to subsidize crop insurance aimed at reducing some of the financial risk faced by farmers
who take out loans to buy seeds and agrochemicals. But experts note there is almost no discussion about mental health as it relates to
India's farming community.

Agriculture Minister Radha Mohan Singh told lawmakers Thursday there were 11,458 farmer suicides in 2016 - the lowest number in
two decades. It was also a year of mild temperatures and normal monsoon rains.
He acknowledged that the number of farmer suicides had gone up by about 9 percent in each of the previous two years, both of which
were marred by drought. The crime bureau found that 58 percent of the 12,602 farmer suicides in 2015 were driven by bankruptcy,
indebtedness and other farming-related issues. Most of the victims were marginal cultivators or small-farm holders with less than 2
hectares (5 acres) of land.

"Suicides occur due to extreme economic despair," said M.S. Swaminathan, a geneticist whose work on high-yield rice and wheat crops
helped drive India's Green Revolution in the 1960s. His research in the late 1980s found that a 1 degree C (1.8 degree F) temperature rise
reduced a crop's duration by about one week, causing losses in the overall weight of harvest. His foundation works to find farming
solutions not only to rising heat, but also to drought or salinity from coastal sea rise. Given these growing risks, he said, government
policy has a large role to play.

"Suitable crop insurance and a prompt compensation of losses due to climate-related factors will help to avoid a sense of hopelessness
that leads to suicide," Swaminathan said.

Tags: farmer suicides, climate change, crop damage

Location: India, Delhi, New Delhi

Crop Changes
Climate change may actually benefit some plants by lengthening growing seasons and increasing carbon dioxide. Yet
other effects of a warmer world, such as more pests, droughts, and flooding, will be less benign. How will the world adapt?
Using an aggressive climate model known as HadGEM2, researchers at the International Food Policy Research Institute
project that by 2050, suitable croplands for four top commodities—corn, potatoes, rice, and wheat—will shift, in some
cases pushing farmers to plant new crops.

Some farmlands may benefit from warming, but others won’t, says IFPRI’s Ricky Robertson. Climate alone doesn’t dictate
yields; political shifts, global demand, and agricultural practices will influence how farms fare in the future. The winners,
researchers say, will be farmers who modernize their methods and diversify their fields.
Change in potential average yields for corn, potatoes, rice, and wheat in 2050

North America No place grows more corn than the midwestern United States. Despite a 20 percent drop in production, the region will remain a global
supplier.
 South America Many crops will suffer in Brazil. Under the HadGEM2 model, corn farmers will see crops decline by nearly 16 percent.

Northern European potato farmers will see longer growing seasons. Fields farther south will become increasingly dry.

West Africa’s rich soil and abundant water may support more rice. Parts of East Africa are believed to have great potential to expand production.

Changes in Asia, with its large population and land area, will affect the most people. India and China will experience major losses of arable land.

Indonesia’s rice production will be largely spared by climate change, but corn will decline as much as 20 percent.

New parts of Australia will become arable, but droughts will require efficient farming if growing wheat is to continue.

Global production change

Millions of tons

Climate change is likely to be most forgiving of wheat, but not enough to offset losses from other major crops.

The State Of Agriculture In India

Agriculture, along with fisheries and forestry, is one of the largest contributors to the Indian Gross
Domestic Product (GDP). The GDP of agriculture and allied sectors in India was recorded at $244.74
Bn in FY ‘16.

1. At 157.35 Mn hectares, India holds the second-largest agricultural land in the world.
2. There has been an increased focus on investments in agricultural infrastructures such as irrigation
facilities, warehousing, and cold storage.
3. New schemes such as Paramparagat Krishi Vikas Yojana, Pradhanmantri Gram Sinchai Yojana, and
Sansad Adarsh Gram Yojana have been introduced to improve farmers’ fortunes and other facilities
which could boost agriculture in India.

Agriculture In India: Challenges

A drop in landholdings (average 1.4 hectares), small and fragmented land holdings, a decreasing
agricultural land versus a growing population, decreasing groundwater levels, poor quality of seeds, lack
of mechanisation, low yield per unit crop and a dependence on middlemen are some of the challenges for
the growth of agriculture in India.
Agri-Voltaic System : Potential Green Energy Technology For
Manipur
October 8, 2017
124

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Yumnam Jekender Singh & RK Tiwari

There is power production of 58303.35 MW from renewable energy sources in the country. The solar energy
production is 13114.85 MW in the country. The nation has a target of 100 gigawatt solar energy production by
2022. For this target (100 GW), there will be need of Rs 5 trillion. In most part of the country, the solar radiations
are 5.6 kWh/ m2/day. Manipur has longitude of 93054’19.7’’ and latitude of 24048’8’’. In Imphal (Manipur) at an
altitude of 762 m above mean sea level, temperature ranges 15.9-32.1 0C and annual irradiance varies 2.16-7.63
kWh/m2/day. The clear sunny days are 129, average rainfall is 1581mm and average clear sunshine hour are
1345.7.

Agri-voltaic is the improved technology in which the installing solar panels and undertaking farming at one time on
the same land. This serves two major purposes of electricity generation and crop cultivation. The income from
selling of Photo-volatic generated electricity from one acre land area would be about Rs 7.6 lakh per year. The
power can be used for irrigation pumps and additional power can be given to power grid. In one acre (4047 m2)
cultivated land which consists of 63 x 63 m size field, 36 solar panels with silicon polycrystalline cells are arranged
in a row along 63 m with zero inclination (horizontal) with a total of 1944 solar panels covering one acre of land.
There are 18 rows lying adjacent to the other along 63 m lengthwise. Each rows contains a set of 3 solar panels.
The solar panels may be placed 5 m above the ground level. The solar panels may be placed in different
configurations with 7.6 m and 11.4 m pitch values and if suitable based on topography solar these can also be
arranged like chess board pattern with air gaps between the set of solar panels. These may reduce solar radiations
on crops by 25-30%, 20-25% and 60-80%, respectively corresponding to 7.6, 11.4 m pitch and chess board
pattern. Thus the reduction in the noon time may be favourable for crop growth resulting better yield. The farmers
will be able to use land for dual purpose, namely to continue the cultivation normally on the ground surface and
also use same farming land for power generation. Thus 4.5 acre cultivable will be sufficient for production of 1 MW
power which will be additional asset for normal crop production. The partial use of power will serve the irrigation
requirement by installing solar water pumping system of 1000 Watt capacity for drawing and pumping 40,000 litres
of water per day from hydraulic head of 10 m. This will be sufficient to irrigate 2 acres of land with regular crops. A
solar pumping system (1000 W) can ensure Rs 45000 as compared to diesel operated pump over a year. The
special NEH region subsidy will be boon for Start Up entreprenurs for adoption of Agrivolatic technology of dual
purpose in Manipur. The PV module will cost 54% of total system cost and civil work including mounting of
structures will be 16% of agrovoltaic system. Thus total system cost excluding land cost will be Rs 6.5 crore for 1
MW requiring 4.5 acre land.

But for one acre agricultural land, capital investment of Rs 1.0 crore will be required to install agri-voltaic system of
100 kW for dual purpose which provide electricity to the tune of Rs 7.6 lakh and payback period for system will be
13.15 years against the total life of 25 years. In last 11.85 years out of 25 years system life, accrued benefits will
be Rs 90 lakh in addition to the benefit from crops grown in one acre area from one acre land.
Abstract
Agriculture is the backbone of Indian economy which in turn relies on the monsoon season. Rising global temperature is not only causing
climate change but also contributing to the irregular rainfall patterns. Uneven rainfall patterns, increased temperature, elevated CO2 content
in the atmosphere are important climatic parameters which affects the crop production. Research studies indicate that weathering
parameters influence strongly (67%) compared to other factors like soil and nutrient management (33%) during the cropping season. The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected that the global mean surface temperature will likely rise and may result into
uneven climatic changes. This rising temperature may affect crop yield at large scale. It has been reported over 20th century that rising
temperature plays an important role towards global warming as compared to precipitation. Researchers have confirmed that crop yield falls
by 3% to 5% for every 1°F increase in the temperature. In India, crop production may be divided into two seasons: Kharif (influenced by
south-west monsoon) and rabi (mostly influenced by north-east monsoon). Present study shows that the crop production is dependent on
temperature. Temperature vs. crop production shows a funnel shape for all the seasons. For the lower temperature both the properties are
almost linearly correlated. In rabi, at the beginning production show a negative trend with temperature which slowly converts to the positive
trend. In kharif that negative trend is not visible. At higher temperatures production increases for both the seasons but with large scattering.
The findings may be helpful to study the effect of climate change on the crop production.

Keywords
Global warming; Climate change; Indian agriculture; Crop yield

Introduction
Mankind is in need of an equitable standard of living like adequate food, water, energy, safe shelter and a healthy environment for present as
well as future generations. But casual acts of human race, such as emission of greenhouse gases by burning fossil fuels and deforestation
has increased the earth’s average surface temperature, which is defined as global warming. It is proved that the warming on the earth’s
surface over last 50 years is mostly due to the anthropogenic activities [1]. Further, it is predicted that the global mean surface temperature
will likely be in the range of 0.3-0.7°C for the period 2016-2035 [2]. This rise in temperature may cause various changes such as sea level
rise, melting of snow sheets and change in rainfall pattern. Hence, global warming can be considered as the major affecting parameter in
changing the earth’s climate.
Warming of the climate system is observed all over the world. Recent climate changes have shown its impact on natural as well as human
systems. Any significant change in climate may affect agriculture at larger scale. Various factors such as increase in temperature change in
rainfall pattern, increase of CO2 content in atmosphere, frequency and intensity of extreme weather events may have significant impact in
agriculture sector. It is predicted that increase in temperature will show overall negative effects on agriculture in the world [3]. Generally
agricultural productivity in developing countries is expected to decline by 9-21% because of global warming [4]. In case of India, almost 70%
of the population depends on agriculture for their livelihood. 23% of India’s Gross National Product (GNP) representing agriculture sector
alone, which plays a major role in the country’s development and shall continue to hold an important place in the national economy [5]. 2.4%
decrement in wheat yield was reported in China due to rising temperature over the past two decades [6]. Increasing global mean surface
temperature is very likely to lead changes in precipitation [7]. It is globally accepted that precipitation is a leading factor affecting especially
rain fed crop yield [8]. Too much precipitation can cause disease infestation in crops, while too little can be detrimental to crop yields;
especially dry periods occur during critical development stages [7]. Carbon dioxide is one of the significant parameter for plant growth. IPCC
projected that atmospheric concentration of CO2 will increase from 368 μmol/mol to 540-970 μmol/mol in 2100 [3]. Research studies
observed that a small increase in temperature (2-40°C) had larger effect than elevated CO2 on grain quality [9,10]. Rising trend of global
warming is considered to be more striking than precipitation over the 20th century [7].
Global Scenario
Climate change could be one of the affecting parameter all over the world. It is predicted by IPCC that many of the observed changes due to
climate change are unprecedented [11]. Global sea level rise is projected to be between 0.17-0.41 m in the year 2050 [12]. It is observed that
the rate of rising sea level has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia, till the mid-19th century [13]. IPCC reported
that changes in precipitation will be non-uniform and its extreme events over most of the mid-latitude and wet tropical regions will become
more intense and frequent [14]. Recent finding of increasing trends in extreme precipitation leads to imply greater risks of flooding at regional
scale [15]. Since 1850, last three decades has been consecutively warmer than any other decade on the Earth’s surface. Heat wave
frequency has increased since the middle of the 20th century in large part of Asia [2]. Moreover concentration of CO2 and other greenhouse
gases leads to increase the temperature. IPCC report states that the amount and rate of warming expected for the 21st century depends on
the total amount of greenhouse gases that mankind emit [16]. These observed changes are responsible for varying the climate at different
parts of the Earth and sometimes it may result into extreme weather events.
In 2005, hurricane Katrina strike U.S., which is considered to be one of the most powerful storms in last 100 years. It struck the Gulf Coast
region and reports estimated that the greatest farm production loss takes place due to this disaster. Prior to Katrina, in the same year, mid-
west portions had experienced significant crop losses due to prolonged drought [17]. Such climatic events affect the ecosystem worldwide.
Climate change may increase or decrease the crop yield depending on the latitude of the area and irrigation application. Increasing
temperature and varying precipitation may decrease the crop productivity in future [18]. Temperature could be an impactful parameter which
affects crop yield all over the world. Hence, studies related to effects of temperature on crop yield may help agriculture sector in a better way
to plan and enhance the economy in the future.
Indian Scenario
Like other countries, India has also started experiencing extreme weather events which lead to change the climate. As mentioned earlier,
global warming is one of the major affecting parameter to change the climate. In India, it is observed that the annual mean temperature has
increased at the rate of 0.42°C [19]. Indian agriculture system is based upon south-west and north-east monsoon. Almost 80% of the total
precipitation comes from south-west monsoon in India. Any fluctuations and uncertainties in long range rainfall pattern may affect the
agriculture sector and also lead to increase the frequency of droughts and floods at regional scale [20]. A significant increasing trend in
rainfall was reported along the west coast, north Andhra Pradesh and North West India [21,22], and while significant decreasing trend was
observed over parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and adjoining area, Kerala and northeast India [23]. North western region of India gets
affected by western disturbances at small scale as such disturbances have impact only on rabi production [24] only for not more than 20-30
days.
Not only monsoon, but temperature has also shown its effect on agriculture. Extreme maximum and minimum temperature showed an
increasing trend in the southern part whereas decreasing trend in the northern part of India [20]. Research studies show that with the
increase in temperature, crop productivity is likely to decrease in future [18]. Hence, there is a need to study the dependency of temperature
on crop productivity, stability, yield and quality to uplift the country’s economy.
Effect of increasing temperature on Indian agriculture
Research studies shows that rise in global surface temperature would affect Indian agriculture. Several climatic factors which affect
agriculture productivity are heat waves, high temperature [25,26], heavy and prolonged precipitation [27-29] and excess cold. These factors
have positive as well as negative effects on crop production. Almost every year India faces several weather events due to changes in
such climatic parameters in various regions which reduces crop yield. Varied nature of such weather events tends to affect the crop growth
cycle and plant physiological processes [30]. In India, about 17% of the years during 1901-2010 were reported as drought years, which result
into severe impacts on agriculture, water resources, food security, economy and social life in the country [31]. The variation in temperature
and precipitation above threshold value may affect photosynthesis and transpiration process in crops [32]. Excess rainfall and flood may
leads to physical damage of the crops [27]. Studies predicted that changing trends in temperature and precipitation will continue to have
significant impact on agriculture [7]. A small rise in temperature (1-2°C), especially in the seasonally dry tropical regions [1] would decrease
crop yield [33].
Indian agriculture is divided into two main seasons: Kharif and Rabi based on the monsoon. It is reported that overall temperature rise is
likely to be much higher during winter (rabi) rather than in rainy season (kharif) [34]. Moreover, it is predicted that the mean temperature in
India will rise by 0.4-2.0°C in Kharif and 1.1-4.5°C in Rabi by 2070 [5]. Decline in agricultural productivity leads to increase food prices at
state as well as at country level [35]. Hence, temperature could be one of the significant affecting factor which results into greater instability in
agriculture of India.

Materials and Methods

The data sets for the annual mean temperature of India over the period 1990-2013 was taken from India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Development in the agriculture and allied sectors of India are of interest to a wide spectrum of people across the world. The Directorate of
Economics and Statistics of the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation, Government of India publishes “Agricultural Statistics at a
Glance 2014” that presents comprehensive information on this sector [36]. All the data sets of food grain production including rabi and kharif
were taken from this report. The report contains production data from 1990-91 to 2012-13. In India, kharif crops are sown at the beginning of
south-west monsoon (i.e., June to September) and harvested during autumn season (i.e., September to October). Such crops are highly
dependent on the timings as well as amount of rainfall. Millets (Bajra, Jowar), Cotton, Soya bean, Sugarcane, Turmeric, Rice, Maize, Moong
(Pulses), Groundnut, Red Chilies are several major Kharif crops in India. Rabi crops are sown after north-east monsoon (i.e. October to
February) and harvested during spring season (i.e. February to April). The farmers in India are mainly dependent on this monsoon for
growing the crops. Such crops need cool climate during growth period but warm climate during the germination of seed and maturation.
Wheat, Barley, Gram, Linseed, Mustard, Masoor, Peas are several major Rabi crops in India.

Result and Discussion

Trend of temperature in India
The average annual temperature shows an increasing trend over India (Figure 1). Hence the effect of warming is clearly visible from 1990 to
2013. Extreme high temperature (25.2°C) was noticed in the year 1996. High temperature may help some of the crops to grow faster,
whereas some of them may get negatively affected [34]. Research confirms that every rise of 1°C temperature throughout the growing
period, even after considering carbon fertilization will decline 4-5 million tons of wheat production in India [34]. Rice yield will decline by 10%
for each 1°C increase in minimum temperature during the growing season [37]. Hence an uneven pattern of temperature may affect crop
yield as well as economy of the country.
Figure 1: Annual mean surface temperature trend over India from 1990-2013.
Production of overall food grains in India
India is agriculture dependent country which produces varieties of food grains. The lines in the plots are drawn in such a way that almost all
the points get cover within the structure. Hence, funnel like structure demonstrate the dependence of temperature on overall crop production
in India (Figure 2).
Figure 2: Variation of overall crop production with temperature.
Initially in low temperature range, tail portion show that crop production decreases with increase in temperature. After then, linear trend is
observed which show that crop production increases with temperature. As temperature raises further, proportion of scattering increases.
Thus, prediction at high temperature becomes difficult. This uneven pattern of temperature may affect crop yield in the country. Research
study estimated that by 2020, food grain requirement would be almost 30-50% more than the current demand [38]. Hence, temperature could
be one of the significant parameter which helps to visualize the crop response.
Effect of temperature rise on Kharif crops in India
The dependency of temperature on kharif crops shows funnel like structure in Figure 3, which is as similar as in Figure 2. At initial stage, tail
portion is not observed which signifies that kharif production may not get affected at low temperature. After that, at high temperature,
scattering in the data points was observed. Hence, this makes the prediction difficult at high temperature range. The production for the year
1991-1992, 1995-1996, 2002-2003 and 2008-2009 has not been placed within the funnel like structure as during these years, several
weather events took place in India.
Figure 3: Variation of kharif production with temperature.
During the year 1991-1992, production fell by 5.3% compared to the previous year due to unpredictable behavior of south-west monsoon.
Several depressions arose during the year 1995 which caused heavy to very heavy rainfall over Bihar plateau and Gangetic West Bengal.
Such situation leads to flood and damage to crops was also reported [39]. The year 2002 was declared as one of the severe drought in India
[30]. Due to this drought, production especially kharif crops got badly affected at large extent [40]. Overall deficit of 23% rainfall during the
south west monsoon, in the year 2009-2010, adversely affected kharif production [34]. Hence due to such weather events, kharif production
gets affected in India.
Effect of temperature rise on rice production in India
Rice is one of the major kharif crops in India. During north-east monsoon, almost two-third of total rice production takes place [41]. Several
other studies reported that increase in temperature beyond critical limits may contribute to reduce rice yield in future [42,43]. Thus variation in
north–east monsoon and rise in temperature may have impact on rice production.
Rice production also show funnel like structure in Figure 4, which is same as shown in Figure 3. As mentioned earlier in Effect of
temperature rise on Kharif crops in India, tail portion is not observed which signifies that rice production does not get affected at low
temperature. It may also be possible that if we observe below this temperature range then we may get the tail portion. Same as kharif,
increase in production takes place along with temperature rise but with high scatter. The reason for deviation in data points is already
discussed in Effect of temperature rise on Kharif crops in India.
Figure 4: Variation of rice production with temperature.
Effect of temperature rise on Rabi production in India
Rabi production show funnel-like structure in Figure 5, which is similar as shown in Figure 3. Tail portion is observed which shows that rabi
production gets affected at low temperature, which is same as Figure 2. After that rise in temperature shows linear relation with rabi
production. Further rise in temperature shows high scattering. Same as for all, prediction becomes difficult at high temperature range. The
production in the year 1995-1996 and 2006-2007 are not compiling within the funnel like structure due to extreme weather events took place
in India.

Figure 5: Variation of rabi production with temperature.

During the year 1995, cyclonic storm at various places has reported loss of huge crop yield. Hence, overall rabi production in this year was
affected [39]. Moreover, the year 2007 was declared as flood year because series of floods hit India and hence production gets affected [30].
Effect of temperature rise on wheat production in India
Wheat is one of the major rabi crops in India. India is the second largest producer of wheat in the world after China. It is reported since past
few years that the productivity of wheat is declining gradually even in Punjab and Haryana-the grainary of the Nation.
Wheat production also show funnel like structure in Figure 6, which is same as kharif production (Figure 5). At initial temperature range,
production decreases with increase in temperature. Same as discussed earlier in Effect of temperature rise on Rabi production in India that
scattering in wheat production is observed along with further rise in temperature.

Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture

There are innumerable potential effects climate change could have on agriculture. It could affect crop growth and quality, livestock health,
and pests.

Why do I care? Climate change could affect farming practices, as well as pest control and the varieties of crops and animals that could be
raised in particular climactic areas. These could, in turn, affect the availability and price of agriculture products as well as the costs of doing
business.

I should already be familiar with: Global Warming vs. Climate Change, Evapotranspiration and Evaporation, Vegetation: Its Role in
Weather and Climate, Greenhouse Gases

Agriculture feeds and clothes the world. Although the long-term effects of climate change are still largely unknown, scientists can observe
short-term effects of climate change on crops and animals. In addition, scientists can prognosticate about the changes that are likely to occur
in agriculture if global climate change causes changes in temperatures and rainfall. The National Climatic Data Center has published a FAQ
on global warming that might be useful to read.

Crops
Data have shown that levels of atmospheric CO2 are increasing. Research is being conducted to determine what types of plant responses
can be expected from these changes (see section on CO2 increase below). Others worry that climate change is going to permanently alter
weather patterns, temperatures, and rainfall. NOAA data show that for much of the Southeast, annual average rainfall has been relatively
constant or slowly increasing; air temperatures are slightly lower than 100 years ago. However, the frequency of rainfall events greater than 2
inches is increasing, leading to longer dry periods between rain events. Crop yields are likely affected by these changes to some extent
already, but it is not clear if future changes will be catastrophic or not. Plants are surprisingly resilient, and can withstand a variety of
conditions while still being productive. In addition, other factors such as location, soil fertility, crop varieties, and management practices will
all affect future yields. Below we list
some of the effects we could expect for
agriculture due to various aspects of
climate change.

Temperature Increase

Many scientists project that the

average temperatures throughout the
US will rise in the next few decades.
Much of this warming could occur at
night, but the models are not clear on
this. If temperatures increase, cooler
areas of the country might be more
habitable for some of the main food
crops grown in the US – thus,
expanding the areas in which certain
crops could be grown or moving their
ranges north. For example, less
frequent freezes could allow citrus to
move north from its current range in
Florida to other areas of the Southeast.
In areas where crops are being grown
in their warmest productive
temperature ranges already, heat
stress or increased disease could
reduce yields. However, research on
new crop varieties and technological
advances could improve yields in spite
of reductions due to temperature Figure A: Botrytic Bunch Rotting in Grapes
increases. A report from the IPCC
(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change) is optimistic that general crop Image from Bridget Lassiter
yields for the next century could
increase in a range from 5-20% during
the first few decades of the 21st
century, and they expect the crop yield
to remain somewhat steady (but positive) through the rest of the century. If climate change reduces the global amount of arable land,
however, total yields could still decrease.

Extreme Weather Events

Some scientists believe that climate change will lead to more extreme weather events. Extreme weather events include heat waves,
droughts, strong winds, and heavy rains. Climate models do not do a good job of predicting how extreme weather events might change
under global warming. For example, models do not agree on whether the number of hurricanes in a warmer world would be more or less
than current values, but scientists generally feel that the strength of the largest hurricanes will increase. The length of the hurricane season
could also increase. Observational changes in the number of tornadoes per year we see now may be due to increases in the number of
people watching the skies and the growth of urban areas rather than any strict climate changes. It is not clear if observed changes in extreme
weather events we see now are part of long natural cycles, or if they are in response to climate change. Nonetheless, all of these events can
be detrimental to crop growth.

Droughts are damaging because of the long-term lack of water available to the plants. Droughts have been responsible for some of the more
serious famines in the world, although sociological factors are also important. Heat waves can cause extreme heat stress in crops, which can
limit yields if they occur during certain times of the plants' life-cycle (pollination, pod or fruit set). Also, heat waves can result in wilted plants
(due to elevated transpiration rates) which can cause yield loss if not counteracted by irrigation. Strong winds can cause leaf and limb
damage, as well as "sandblasting" of the soil against the foliage. Heavy rains that often result in flooding can also be detrimental to crops and
to soil structure. Most plants cannot survive in prolonged waterlogged conditions because the roots need to breathe. In addition, flooding can
erode topsoil from prime growing areas, resulting in irreversible habitat damage. Heavy winds combined with rain (from events such as
hurricanes and tornadoes) can down large trees, and damage houses, barns and other structures involved in production agriculture.

Carbon Dioxide Increase

Scientists are in agreement that the levels of atmospheric CO 2 (carbon dioxide) have increased in recent years. Prior to the Industrial
Revolution, they were measured at 280 parts per million by volume (ppmv); currently the levels are around 380 ppmv. These levels have
been steadily increasing by 1.9 ppm yearly since the year 2000, largely as a result of fossil fuel burning. Carbon dioxide is critical to
photosynthesis (and thus plant growth). Scientists agree that even small increases in carbon dioxide result in more plant growth. It is likely
that higher levels of carbon dioxide will result in higher harvestable crop yields. However, this depends critically on the availability of sufficient
water and nutrients necessary for plant growth. Some scientists believe that one drawback to this increased productivity will be crops with
lower nutrient and protein levels. If true, this could have a significant, widespread impact on long-term human health if additional fertilizers
were not incorporated into crop production.

Weeds, Pests and Disease

While crops are expected to respond to

increased CO2 with strong vegetative
growth, other plants are also thought to
respond in a similar fashion. Weeds
have become more prolific and are
expected to invade new habitats as
global warming increases. For
example, researchers at Duke
University found that poison ivy is
actually becoming more toxicas levels
of atmospheric carbon dioxide
increase. Studies have also shown that
herbicides become less effective in a
higher carbon dioxide environment,
meaning that higher rates of herbicides
will be necessary to achieve the same
levels of control. Insect pests, some of
which carry plant diseases, could
become more prolific and widespread
as temperatures increase. If pests live
longer and reproduce more each year,
it is possible that they could spread
Figure B: Corn Earworm Larvae Damaging Corn Kernels crop diseases into new production
areas. It is also possible that increases
in temperature, moisture and carbon
Image from Bridget Lassiter dioxide could result in higher
populations of destructive pests.

Irrigation and Rainfall

Changes in climate may also impact the water availability and water needs for agriculture. If temperature increases and more sporadic
rainfall events result from global warming, it is possible that irrigation needs could increase in the future. For example, rainfall in parts of the
southeastern US states has increased about 10% over the past century. However, part of this increase may be due to changes in the
frequency of tropical storms. Tropical storms usually result in rainfall events greater than 2 inches in a day which occur at irregular intervals;
these are less useful in an agricultural sense than are rainfall events that occur more frequently, even with lower accumulations. Plants
growing in a high carbon dioxide environment may have lower water needs. In addition, widespread increased humidity will slow
transpiration, further reducing the need for water. However, these benefits will probably be overshadowed by the lack of available water due
to increased droughts and heat waves. The crops will transpire more heavily than when under “normal” growing conditions, and would likely
need more water to adjust to these climactic changes. In anticipation of these changes, plant breeders are currently working to develop new
varieties of crops that are considered to be drought tolerant, and more adaptable to varying levels of temperature and moisture.
Livestock

While crops could be impacted by climate change, it is likely

that farm animals would be even more susceptible to changes
in the climate.

Temperature Increases

It is expected that increased air temperatures will cause more

stress on livestock. Both humans and livestock are warm-
blooded animals, so both are affected by increased heat and
humidity. During stifling heat, livestock reproduction declines
as well as their appetite. Decreased appetite will lengthen the
time needed for the livestock to reach their target weight
(most animals only eat about half of normal quantities when
they are heat-stressed). Stress can also increase the
incidence of sickness, decrease rates of reproduction, and
increase fighting among animals in confinement. In some
areas, night-time temperatures are even more above average
than daytime temperatures during heat-waves, which has
resulted in increased mortality rates. Despite the warmer
winter temperatures, global warming could have a negative
overall impact upon livestock.

Feed Quality

As indicated above, increased carbon dioxide may result in

feed and forage that is less nutritious even if there is more of
it. It is likely that growers would be forced to use feed
additives in order to see the expected growth gains in
livestock, and to avoid illnesses. This increased cost to the
grower would result in increased food costs to the consumer.
Availability could also decrease if there is not enough water
and nutrients in stressed soils to keep up with plant growth.

Figure C
Disease

Insect parasites and diseases could also become more prolific Image from Bridget Lassiter
as global warming progresses. New diseases may also
emerge in the Southeast that were once considered to inhabit
only tropical areas. It is expected that in cases of increased
heat stress and humidity, most livestock will not be able to
fight these diseases without the use of costly medicines.

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