THAI 2015 International Conference on “Climate Change and

Water & Environment Management in Monsoon Asia”

27-30 January 2015, 2nd Floor, Swissotel Le Concorde, Bangkok

Research Issues on Water Disaster Management

and Climate Change in West Java Island, Indonesia

Prof. Dr. Ir. Muhammad Syahril Badri Kusuma

Research Division on Water Resources Engineering
INSTITUT TEKNOLOGI BANDUNG
2015
 Topics of Discussion
1. Water Disaster Management and Climate Change in
West Java, Indonesia
2. Research Activities and Contribution
3. Conclusion
 Water Disaster Management and Climate
Change in West Java, Indonesia
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0

Climatology Geophysical Hydrological Meteorological

Strategic Issue how to contribute :

Disaster Natural Man Main Collateral
Made Disaster Disaster  Limited Resources for too many
Flood V V V V
disasters cases
Fire V V V V
Drought V V V V  Optimized effort tend to Disaster
Earthquake V V V Risk Reduction (DRR)
Tsunami V V  Selected Research on the most
priority for supporting DRR program
Water Disaster Management and Climate
Change in West Java, Indonesia

Risk Concept: The probability that a community’s

(Harkunti PR, 2008)
structure or geographic area is to be
damaged or disrupted by the impact of a
The Risk Triangle: particular hazard, on account of their
nature, construction, and proximity to a
hazardous area

If size of any one of the

components increases, the level
RISK of risk also increases.
Growing Risk should be reduced
through a comprehensive
approach with a strategy to
Exposure
manage all three components.
Water Disaster Management and Climate
Change in West Java, Indonesia
Strategy for Disaster
Risk Reduction at Community
Safety
Local level, (Harkunti PR, 2008)

Do not Decrease Prepare

increase the risk existing risk for possible

consequences

What can you propose?

Long term DRR can be achieved through emergency response planning,

Practices to promote mitigation & Preparedness, creating safer shelter,
infrastructure and lifeline facilities in order to make the development
actions are sustainable
Water Disaster Management and Climate
Change in West Java, Indonesia

Optimized DRR Program :

 Most Frequent/Probable event  eg Flood

 Highest Risk  Local, National and Regional Impact

 Most applicable of Sustainable Solution  Common Practice of

the most adapted to the local people
 Immediate Impact  Political View

Type of DRR Program :

 Improve the existing Capacity  Structural (Infrastructures ) and
Non Structural (Local People)
 Decrease the Hazard  Long term conceptual effort, unrealistic

 Prepare Most Probable Consequence  Short Term

Water (Flood & Drought) Disaster Management and
Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia

 Most frequent and a well known disaster in Indonesia

 Caused by :
 Maximum annual rainfall  current discussion Regular
 Extreme climate : La Nina
 Tidal surge Rob Irregular
 Tsunami
 Collateral disaster :
 Famine and Epidemie
 Environment disaster
 Economic failure

 Type of flood disaster :

 Disaster Scale
 Small scale : bad drainage/flood control system  under designed or chucking
 Large scale : Increasing flood hydrograph due to the catchments area degradation
or climate change and tsunami
 Flood sources :
 Local: Maximum annual of daily precipitation
 Distance Flood : propagated flood from upstream area or tsunami
Water (Flood & Drought) Disaster Management and
Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia

 Regular Flood (up to 200mm/day)

 Early warning system is available (from very poor to poor)
 Vulnerable community trying to live with affordable/acceptable losses.
 Constraint : unresolved social economic problem  political and high
cost/technology solution
 Tsunami
 Most unpredictable  historical/hypothetical data are available
 Less structural mitigation Focused on emergency response and TEWS
 High risk : unacceptable losses/damages
 Most of the survivor resisting to going back to their vulnerable home land.
 La Nina
 Amplified warning  effective loss reduction

 Tide Surge
 Bad assessment less prepared/awareness
 In accurate assessment of Sea Level Rise and Land Subsidence
Water (Flood & Drought) Disaster Management and
Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia
9

Total urban area % (java-bali spatial plan) 2000 - 2025

• Most Populated and Developed Area in Indonesia highest

contribution for National Development with more than 60 %
of Indonesian GDP/GNP
• Jakarta, West Java and Banten Provinces
• Water Related Disaster and Climate Change : Flood,
Tsunami, Drought, Coastal Degradation, Sea Intrusion, Baby
Tornado (Puting Beliung), Forest Fire, Ground Water etc.
Water (Flood & Drought) Disaster Management and
Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia

1937 1972 1983

1992 2005
2000

Jakarta in VOC era ( fist column : Top, Berkeley WEB, Below Delft WEB) and current condition ( rest of
the columns, DKI)
 Water (Flood & Drought) Disaster Management
and Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia

 40 % of ± 65.000 Ha is
below sea level
Water (Flood & Drought) Disaster Management and
Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia

River/Canal System for Flood Control Development

Central Govt
Authority

Local Govt
Authority
Eastern Flood
Control
Water (Flood & Drought) Disaster Management and
Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia
Java Sea
Pump Pump Pump

Pond
Pond Pond
Pond Pond
Pond
Low land area
Polder system
Polder system Reservoir/Po
Low land area
nd

High region with gavitational drain

High region with gavitational drain

Flood way Flood Manggarai Gate

Level
in
Case
Elevation of Jakarta Airport
Study
Canal system Area Thamrin
Highway

Reservoir Reservoir Flooded Area Housing in Reclaimed

Swamp Area
Flood
Level
Vulnerable Flood
Java Sea
High Tide
Sea surface level
Normalisatio
n/Dreging
Area below Average
Dikes Sea Level

Structural Mitigation
Ground level compared to flood level in
Jakarta vulnerable area
Water (Flood & Drought) Disaster Management and
Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia

Jakarta Flood 2002 and 2007

Water (Flood & Drought) Disaster Management and
Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia

Several Current recorded flood in Jakarta

Top Left Des 2013 and Right Mai 2013, Bottom Left Des 2013 and Right Jan 2014
Water (Flood & Drought) Disaster Management and
Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia
16

Citarum Catchment Area (ADB, 2010,

left below) and Citarum Water
Management (PU, top right)

Climate Change Issue in River Management : Citarum case

Water (Flood & Drought) Disaster Management and
Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia
Climate Change Issue in River Management : Citarum case

Java Sea

Bandung Basin as an upper part of Citarum River Catchmen Area ( BBWSC, Atlas Citarum, 2012
Water (Flood & Drought) Disaster Management and
Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia
priorita
snews.c
om

sindonews.com liputan6.com

Three weeks flooded in Dayeuh Kolot, natural

flood plain area of upstream Jatiluhur
Reservoir, 2013
Water (Flood & Drought) Disaster Management and
Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia

Batujajar Bridge - Photo: The Sun, 2009

190 Tons of organic

waste from farming (8,000 The annual uncollected garbage
cows produce 24 kg that invariably ends up
of waste each) accumulating in the drainage
system and rivers amounts
500,000 m3/year
Water (Flood & Drought) Disaster Management and
Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia

Land Use Change

Problem

Pengalengan, Ciwidey, Southern part of upstream area, msbadrik 2005 and

City Center, msbadrik 2010

Average annual sedimentation into the three

reservoirs estimated at
SEDIMENTATION IN
SAGULING 8 million m3/year
FOTO DOC. CITA-
CITARUM, AGUSTUS
2011, BBWSC
This caused flood in rainy season and water
scarcity in the dry season
(ASER 2008, BPLHD)
Water (Flood & Drought) Disaster Management and
Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia

Sukawana Reservoir 5 Small Reservoir

Vol : 719 103 m3. Cikukang Res
Cimeta Reservoir, Dependable flow : 1.82 Vol : 319 103 m3.
Vol : 970 103 m3. Dependable Cost : Rp 36 B
m3/sec. Cost : Rp 106 B
flow : 2.45 m3/sec. Res Ciawiruka
Cost : Rp 176 B Res Cipanengah1
Res Cipanengah2
Res Cipanengah3

Citarik Reservoir
Vol : 307 103 m3.
Dependable flow : 0.8
Ciwidey Reservoir m3/sec. Cost : Rp 86 B
Vol : 743 103 m3.
Dependable flow : 1.88
m3/sec.
Cibataruta Reservoir
Vol : 500 103 m3.
Dependable flow : 1.2
m3/sec. Cost : Rp 120 B

Sentosa Reservoir River

Vol : 15 106 m3
Proposed Reservoir

Existing Reservoir
Kadaleman Reservoir
Vol : 1.6 106 m3. Inundated Area
Inudated area : 55.4 Ha.
Inter basin

Structural Mitigation : Storage System, River normalization and dikes, ITB-Kompas, 2010)
Water (Flood & Drought) Disaster Management and
Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia 2
2

22

Before normalization project After fist stage of normalization project After 2nd stage of normalization project

1986 Inundation Area 8600 Ha 1994 Inundation Area = 5100 Ha 2001 Inundation Area :

After final stage of normalization Two year After normalization project Two year After normalization project

2003 : Inundation Area = 820 Ha 2005 : Inundation Area = 1120 ha 2010 Inundation Area ≈ 5100 Ha

Source: ICWRMP
Water (Flood & Drought) Disaster Management and
Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia
23

Water Scarcity in 2012

Jatiluhur, Citarum River, West

Pacal, West Java Gajah Mungkur , Solo River, West
Java
Java
Water (Flood & Drought) Disaster Management and
Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia
24

Forest Fire Event in 2012

Ciremai West Java Papandayan, West Java Sindoro, Central Java

Rokan Hulu, Sumatera, tv one Agung, Bali island, detik.com Rinjani, Lombok Island, detik.com
Research Activities and Contribution
 Supporting
Institution
(Donor,
Experts/Engi
neers, NGO
etc)

Stake
holder

Government
Local/Center People of
disaster
prone area

Disaster Stake holder  Potensial Resources Sharing for

Appropriate Contribution
 Flood and Drought Problem : Very complex from
engineering to social and environment aspect
 Resources Support : Lack of Data, Limited Budget and un
appropriate Methodology
 Cooperation with the stake holder of related disaster 
resources optimization for the most applicable solution
where each of them contribute based on their capacity
 Flood and Drought Problem : Very complex from
engineering to social and environment aspect
 Resources Support : Lack of Data, Limited Budget and un
appropriate Methodology
 Cooperation with the stake holder of related disaster 
resources optimization for the most applicable solution
where each of them contribute based on their capacity
 Source: Kali Muara Angke
Kali Mampang

Source:

Kali Banjir Kanal

Kali Krukut Atas Kali Krukut Atas

Source:
Kali Cideng Atas

Waduk
Setiabudi
Pompa
Source: Kali Banjir Kanal

PA
Kali Banjir Kanal

PA
Kali Ciliwung 1

Ma
Ka

Sip
r et
Kali Muara Karang

n gg
hon

a ra
i
Melati
Waduk
Waduk Pluit
LAUT

Kali Krukut Bawah

Kali Cideng Bawah

Kali Besar

Kali Ciliwung Kali Ciliwung

PA
(Kota) (Kota)

an g T
k
Kali Ciliwung 2

i
Anak

PA
Kali Ciliwung

Isti
qla
l
Kali Ciliwung
(Gn. Sahari)

>0.8 m

0.0-0.4 m
0.4-0.8 m
PA
Jem
Me b ata
rah n

development)
for “giant sea wall”
One of the basic idea

Source: Kali Muara Angke

Kali Mampang
Kanal
Kali Banjir

Source:
Kali Krukut Atas Kali Krukut Atas

Source:
i

Kali Cideng Atas

Waduk
Setiabud
Pompa

Source: Kali Banjir Kanal

PA

Kali Banjir Kanal

PA

Kali Ciliwung 1
Ma
Ka

Sip
WADUK MUARA

r et

Kali Muara Karang

n gg
i

hon

a ra
i
Melat
Waduk
Waduk Pluit

Kali Krukut Bawah

Kali Cideng Bawah

Kali Besar

Kali Ciliwung Kali Ciliwung

PA

(Kota) (Kota)
T
k

an g
k
Ana

Kali Ciliwung 2
i

PA
Kali Ciliwung

Isti
qla
l

Kali Ciliwung
(Gn. Sahari)
0.0-0.2 m
PA
Jem
Me b ata
rah n

Flood 2002 based on 1000 years Return period left with existing flood control, right
supported with estuary reservoir (still required river normalization to have steeper slope)
The masterplan of Jakarta Shoping
Hotel

Office
Housing

The effectiveness of large

polder in coastal area
Multi Purpose Flood Diversion Tunnel in Jakarta
Multi Purpose Flood Diversion Tunnel in Jakarta
 Population
 Night + 8,9 M

 Day + 10,2 M

 Women 49.97%

 Childern < 15 Y : 7.35%

 Old People > 60 Y : 5.65%

 Family : 2,25 M House hold

 Density :
 Average : 13-15 103 people/km2

 High : 20-30 103 People/km2

 • Simple method (ITB)

 Field observation
 Visual and Interview
with local people
 Could be used to
confirm the flood
map
 Pump

Pond

Non Structural Mitigation

 Polder System
Flood 2007  Risk map was developed for Improving
Local People Capacity by
Dike

PENINGKATAN KAPASITAS PEMERINTAH DAERAH BERSAMA MASYARAKAT

DALAM SISTEM PERINGATAN DINI BENCANA BANJIR DI DKI JAKARTA
Jakarta, 8 – 11 Juni 2008
 Recorded Rainfall during flood in 2007
PA Manggarai

Bukit Duri

Kalibata
Curah Hujan Pada DAS Ciliw ung Tengah (03 Februari 2007)
Lenteng Agung
225
195 195
200
175
150
125
R (mm)

106
Depok 101.5 101.5 101.5
100
74.5 74.5
75
50.5
Cibinong
50
25
0

Bukit Duri
PA. Depok

Manggarai
Katulampa

Kb. Raya

Cibinong

Lenteng

Kalibata
Kab. Bogor

Agung

PA.
Bd.

Katulampa
Bogor Kb. Raya
Kab. bogor

Flood 2007 in the

Location of
 Bukit Duri (12

Community)
 Kebon Baru (14

Community)
 Flood Hazard Map –
FHM berbasis RW

Inundated area more than 2 meter
 4 RW di Bukit Duri (9,10,11,12)
 7 RW di Kebon Baru (1,2,3,4,8,9,10)
FHM Index
 Index 4: more than 80% is inundated > 2 meter
 Index 3: 40%-80% of The area is inundated
 Index 2: 10%-40% of The area is inundated
 Index 1: Less then 10% of The area is
inundated
 Capacity
 Parameter:
 River/Drainage Capacity : Dike, Pumps, Canal
 Early Warning
 Stake Holder (Especially Local Peaple) Awareness/Capacity
Capacity Index = 0.5 x Dike index + 0.5 x Pump index
 Index 4 : very good
 Index 3 : goood
 Index 2 : Low
 Index 1 : Very low
 Risk
Risk Index
 Index 4 : Very High
 Index 3 High
 Index 2 : Medium
 Index 1 : Low

Existing Optimistic and Pesimisstic Intervention

Risk = Hazard X Vulnerability / Capacity

• There are 376 rainfall stations in Citarum River Basin with different
data sources for the period of 1980-2008.

Data Availability <50%
(192stations)
Data Availability >70%
(142 stations)
Data Availability >90%
(26stations)
From those 376 rainfall station :
1.Only 26 stations (6.9% of the
total rainfall stations) consist of
very good data record with data
availability more than 90%;
2.142 stations (37.8% of the total
rainfall stations) consist of
relatively good data records
with data availability more than
70%;
3.192 stations (51.2% of the total
rainfall stations) consist of data
records with data availability
less than 50%
 44

Drown Stream

Central Stream

Upstream

Trend:
Changes in rainfall trend tend to occur in Monthly Average Rainfall in CRB Monthly Average Rainfall in Lower CRB
lower Citarum, where rainfall in wet
season tends to increase while rainfall in
dry season tends to decrease
 45

Trend:
Based on data from maximum daily rainfall for the
period of 1980-1989, 1990-1999, and 2000-2009,
there are no change in extreme value for return
period of 5 and 10 years (Kusuma, Arno and Farid).
Monthly rainfall seems to have a strong correlation with monthly discharge
which indicates the typical of runoff in developed area with high variation
between wet and dry season and relatively low base flow (Kusuma, Arno and Farid)
 15

22

29

36

43
1

15

22

29

36

43
40 0

8
70 0
35 2
2
60
4 4
30
6 50 6
25
8
Q (m3/jam)

Q (m3/jam)
40
20 10 10
12 30
15 12
14 20 14
10
16 16
5 10
18 18
0 20 0 20
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
t (Hours) t (Hours)

Reff Horton Inf Horton SCS Nakayasu Reff Horton Inf Horton SCS Nakayasu

ITB 1 ITB 2 Q (Data) ITB 1 ITB 2 Q (Data)

Spatial Distribution of Rainfall-Runoff Hydrograph

 Update hazard method : Depth-Damage Curve for Residential Structure in
Citarum
Depth-Damage Curve for Residential
Depth-Damage Curve for Residential Structure
Structure in Jakarta and Surakarta
in some countries Europe, Australia, United
100
State . 100
GROUP I
(USACE 1997, 90
80 2003, 2006,
2007, Stefen 80 Brick

Tingkat Kerusakan (%)

wall-
Damage Factor (%)

Reese 2010
(Timber and 70 Concr
60 Masonry),
60 ete
Middleman
2010)
Floor-
50 Clay
40 40 Roof
GROUP
II(ANUFLOOD,
HIS-SSM, 30
20 ONTARIO, FEMA 20
1995,
BOWSHORE, 10
RF, Hydrotech
0 (2001, 2002)) 0
-1 1 3 5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
Flood Depth (m)
Kedalaman Genangan (m)

Hazard Level based on BNPB ( National Guidleine For Flood Study No.02, 2012) :
D < 0.76 m, Low Hazrad
D 0.76 m – 1.5 m Medium hazard,
D > 1.5 m High Hazard.
 Agriculture Housing
Kurva kedalaman kerusakan untuk Pertanian (sawah)
GROUP I ( HIS-
100 SSM, HKV, 100
Rhine Atlas)
90 DF_ DF
90
y = 0.4672x4 - 6.2233x3 + 22.51x2 + 4.768x GROUP II (RWS
Agr Isi
80 R² = 0.9974 (Van der Sandle 80

Tingkat Keruskan (%)

et al 2003), HKV
2007, Flemish ,
70
Tingkat Kerusakan ( %)

70 Penning-Rowsell
et al 2003)
GROUP III
60 (Grossman 2004) 60

50 50
Citarum
40 (proposed) 40
DF_I
30 30
Paddy, DF Res nd
20 Bangladesh 20 DF
10 10 struktur
Gusti&Pandjung
0 0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6
Kedalaman Genangan (m)
Kedalaman Genangan (m)

Residential Struktur
 SPI-1 SPI-3 PDSI SPI-1 SPI-3 PDSI
-2 -2 -2 2 2 2

-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
- 2. 05783 - 2. 048249 - 2. 076011
-2 -2 -2
-3 -3 -3

-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 2
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2

-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2

-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1
-3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2

-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 2
-3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2

-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 1 1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 1 1 1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2

-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
1 1 1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 1 1 1 1
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 1 1 1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1
-3 -3 -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2

-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
1 1 1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-2 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 1 1 1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
1 1 1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -1
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 1 1 1 1 1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0

-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 1 1 1 1 1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1
-3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2
-2 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -2 -2
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -1
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1
-1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 0 -1 -1 -1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 -1 -1 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 -1 -1
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 -1 -1
-2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 -1 -1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 -1
-2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 -2

Ekstrim Basah
-2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 -2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 1 1 -1 0 1 1 1 1 -1 -1 4
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
-2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -1 -1

-2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2
-2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2
-1 1 1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1

-1 1 1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 0 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 1 1 -1 -1 -1
3 Sangat Basah
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -1 -1

-2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1

-1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 0 0 -2 -1 -1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 -1 -1 0
2 Agak Basah
Ekstrim Basah
-2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 4
-1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1
4 Sangat Basah -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 2

1 Sedikit Basah
-2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 -3 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0

-2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -4 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 3 Sangat Basah 3 Basah -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1
4 Sangat Basah 0. 5 Awal Selang Basah
Sangat Basah -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 1 1 1 0

-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
4
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -4 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
2 Agak Basah 2 Agak Basah -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2
3 Basah 0 Mendekati Normal
Basah -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
Sangat Basah 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 1 1 1 0 0

Sedikit Basah
3 4 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 2
-2 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-2 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
1

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1
0 Normal 2 Agak Basah 1 1 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -1 0 Awal Selang Kering
Agak Basah Basah -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1
-2

Awal Selang Basah

2 3
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2
0. 5
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 -1 Agak Kering 0 Normal 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 -1
Sedikit Kering
0 Normal Agak Basah 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 -3
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
2
0 Mendekati Normal Kering Agak Kering
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 Agak Kering Normal
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2
-3 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 -1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1
-5 Agak Kering
Awal Selang Kering
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
0

Kering
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
-5 Sangat Kering 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
-3 Kering 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Sangat Kering
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 Agak Kering -6

Sedikit Kering
-1
-2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
-3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 -1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2
2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2
-2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2

-5 Sangat Kering -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-3 Kering -5 Sangat Kering Ekstrim Kering
Agak Kering
-1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -7
2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 2
-1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -5
-1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1

-5 Sangat Kering -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1

1 1
1 1
-6 Sangat Kering 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 1 1 1 2 2

0 -1

Ekstrim Kering
1 2 1 2 2 2
-7

Maret Maret Maret Maret Maret Mare

t
-1 -1 -1

-2 -2 -2
-3 -3 -4
-1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
-3 -3 -4
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-4 -3 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4
-1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
-4 -3 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -2 -2 -2
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4
-1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
-3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2

-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -4 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2

-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -4 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2

-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 1 1

-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -3
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2

-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2

-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2
-1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2

-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2
-1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -1 -1
-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2

-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2
-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -1 -1

-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2
-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 -3 -3 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -1 -1 -1

-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3
-1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -1 -1 -1
-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 4 Ekstrim Basah -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3
-1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -1 -1 -1

-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3
-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2
3 Sangat Basah -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1
-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3

Agak Basah
-2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2

-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -3 -3

-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2
2

-1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
4 Ekstrim Basah
-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3
Sedikit Basah
Sangat Basah
1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
-2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 3

-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -3 -3
0. 5 Awal Selang Basah -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -1 -1
2 Agak Basah
-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -4 -3 -3 -3

Sangat Basah -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -4 -3 -3 -3
4 Sangat Basah -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 0 Mendekati Normal -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -1 1 1 1 1
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2

-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3
4

Basah
1 Sedikit Basah
3 Basah
-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3
-2 Awal Selang Kering -1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2

-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3

Agak Basah 0. 5 Awal Selang Basah

Sedikit Kering
-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 0 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2

-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 2 Agak Basah 2
-3
-1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1

-3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3
Normal -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -1

Agak Kering -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 4 Sangat Basah -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3

4 Sangat Basah 0 Mendekati Normal
-3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3
0 Normal 0
-5

Awal Selang Kering

-3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-1 Agak Kering -1 Agak Kering -6 Sangat Kering
-1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1
3 Basah 3 Basah -2

-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3
-2 -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2

-3 Kering -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-3 Kering -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -7 Ekstrim Kering
-1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1
2 Agak Basah 2 Agak Basah -3 Sedikit Kering
-2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2

Agak Kering
-1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1
-2 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2

-5 Sangat Kering -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2
-5 Sangat Kering -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 Normal 0 Normal -5
-2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
-2 -2 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 1

-2 -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2

-1 1
-1 Agak Kering -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2
-1 Agak Kering -6 Sangat Kering
Ekstrim Kering
-2 -2

-3 Kering -2 -2 -3 Kering -7

-5 Sangat Kering -5 Sangat Kering

Mei Mei September Agust Agustus Agustus

us
Dry Year 1997 Wet Year 2007
SPI = Standard Precipitation Index (1 for one month and 3 for three month)
PDSI (Palmer Drought Standard Index)
 2 SPI-1 2
SPI-3
1.5 1.5
1 1
0.5 0.5
Hulu

SPI-3
Hulu
SPI-1

0 0
-0.5 Tengah -0.5 Tengah
-1 Hilir -1 Hilir
-1.5 -1.5
-2 -2
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
Area Area

4
3
PDSI DROUGHT SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION IN 1997
2
1
Hulu Spi-1 : 70% of downstream dry and
PDSI

0
-1
Tengah 50% Very Dry.
-2
Hilir SPI-3 : 70% Dry and 45%. Very dry
-3 PDSI : 32% Dry and 4% Very dry
-4
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
Area
PDSI Scale of the East-West Cross Section of Lower Citarum River Basin
PDSI Scale along North-
South Cross Section of
Citarum River Basin

Karawang
Purwakarta
Bandung
Establishment of new Undergraduate Program of Water
Resources Management and Engineering in ITB
54

 Climate change adaptation effort is a long term effort.

 Lack of water resources engineering expert in water related Government and Private
Institution
 The most appropriate systematic effort from university
 Supported by Ministry of Public Work, Min of Education and Local Government.
 Improving Data Base
 Updating assessment methodology : flood hydrograph, and
hydraulic/hydrology model
 Developing disaster risk map of both flood and drought
 Developing Applicable Action Plan for Local Stake Holder
 Contribution to Building Code Development and
Improvement
 Technology Application for DRRP
 Capacity Building : New Program Study, Training
 Research, Education and Community Services
 Climate Variability Climate Change International/Nationa
l Funding Institution
Program Cooperation
La Nina, El Nino, Global International Researh
Monson etc Regional Institutuion : Asia
Local Universities etc
Model : Downscaling,Rainfal-
Land Use etc Runoff, Risk etc
Water Related Impacts
Asia Country
Local Authority Universities
Research
Data, Drought Flood Other Impacts
and Research
Implementation
and Policy
Institution
Join research on
People Awareness
particular themes
Private Sector Local Level Policy and National and
Mitigation Plan
and Local People
Involvement
Action Plan Program
Local Intitution
Join research on
Implementation particular themes
 Thank You

KAMPUNKA
TERIMAH KASIH