The binomial distribution

• The coin toss - three coins

• The coin toss - four coins
• The binomial probability distribution
• Rolling dice
• Using the TI nSpire
• Graph of binomial distribution
• Mean & standard deviation

VCE Maths Methods - Unit 4 - The binomial distribution 1

 The coin toss - three coins

• Three coins are tossed. What is the probability distribution of X

(the number of heads?)
H HHH
H
T HHT
Pr(X=0)=
1
H H HTH 8
T 3
Pr(X=1)=
T HTT 8
H THH
3
H Pr(X=2)=
8
T THT
T 1
H TTH Pr(X=3)=
8
T
Heads & tails are equally likely. T TTT
All outcomes are equally likely.
VCE Maths Methods - Unit 4 - The binomial distribution 2
 The binomial distribution

• The coin toss is an example of a Bernoulli sequence.

• Repeated trials where only two distinct outcomes (success or failure)
are possible.
• Trials are independent; each trial has the same probability of a successful
outcome.
• The binomial distribution describes the chances of geing each possible
value of X; the number of successful outcomes from the number of trials.
• The binomial distribution is an example of a discrete probability
distribution.
• Coin toss, dice roll or yes / no options will follow a binomial distribution.

VCE Maths Methods - Unit 4 - The binomial distribution 3

 The coin toss - four coins

• What if there were four coins?

• There are now 16 (24) possible outcomes.
• There are now 6 possible outcomes with two heads.

HHTT
HTHT
HTTH 6 3
THHT
Pr(X=2)= =
16 8
THTH
TTHH

There are six different ways

that the two heads can be
arranged in the four places.
VCE Maths Methods - Unit 4 - The binomial distribution 4
 The binomial probability distribution

• This can be found using the idea of Combinations.

• There are six combinations that can be made by choosing two from four
objects.
2 2
4
C2 =
4! 24
= =6 Pr(X =2)= C 2 ×
4 ⎛ 1⎞ ⎛ 1⎞
× =
6
2!2! 4 ⎝ 2 ⎠ ⎝ 2 ⎠ 16
Number of successes
(heads) Number of failures (tails)
Number of trials
Pr(X = x )= C x × ( p ) × (1− p )
n x n−x

Number of possible
arrangements
Chance of failure (tails)
Chance of success (heads)
VCE Maths Methods - Unit 4 - The binomial distribution 5
 Pascal’s triangle

1 (0 trials)

1 1 1 trial

1 2 1 2 trials

1 3 3 1 3 trials

1 4 6 4 1 4 trials

1 5 10 10 5 1 5 trials

X=0 X=2 X=4

X=1 X=3 X=5

VCE Maths Methods - Unit 4 - The binomial distribution 6

 The binomial probability distribution

• Four coins: The probability distribution for the number of heads has five
possible values (0-4).
0 4
Pr(X = 0)= C 0 × ⎛ 1⎞ ⎛ 1⎞
4
× =
1 This distribution is
⎝ 2 ⎠ ⎝ 2 ⎠ 16 symmetrical when the chances
1 3
of success (head) or failure
Pr(X =1)= C 1 ×
4 ⎛ 1⎞ ⎛ 1⎞
× =
4 1
= (tail) are equal.
⎝ 2 ⎠ ⎝ 2 ⎠ 16 4
2 2
Pr(X =2)= C 2 ×
4 ⎛ 1⎞ ⎛ 1⎞
× =
6 3
=
⎝ 2 ⎠ ⎝ 2 ⎠ 16 8
The sum of all probabilities
3 1
Pr(X = 3)= C 3 ×
4 ⎛ 1⎞ ⎛ 1⎞
× =
4 1
=
must be equal to one.
⎝ 2 ⎠ ⎝ 2 ⎠ 16 4
4 0
Pr(X = 4)= C 4 ×
4 ⎛ 1⎞ ⎛ 1⎞
× =
1
⎝ 2 ⎠ ⎝ 2 ⎠ 16
VCE Maths Methods - Unit 4 - The binomial distribution 7
 Rolling dice

• Four dice are rolled. What is the distribution that describes the number of
sixes rolled?
0 4
Pr(X = 0)= C 0 × ⎛ 1⎞ ⎛ 5 ⎞
4
× =1×
625
= 48.2%
⎝ 6⎠ ⎝ 6⎠ 1296
1 3
Pr(X =1)= C 1 ×
4 ⎛ 1⎞ ⎛ 5 ⎞
× = 4×
125
= 38.6%
⎝ 6⎠ ⎝ 6⎠ 1296
2 2
Pr(X =2)= C 2 ×
4 ⎛ 1⎞ ⎛ 5 ⎞
× = 6×
25
=11.6%
⎝ 6⎠ ⎝ 6⎠ 1296
3 1
Pr(X = 3)= C 3 ×
4 ⎛ 1⎞ ⎛ 5 ⎞
× = 4×
5
=1.5%
⎝ 6⎠ ⎝ 6⎠ 1296
4 0
Pr(X = 4)= C 4 ×
4 ⎛ 1⎞ ⎛ 5 ⎞
× =1×
1
= 0.08%
⎝ 6⎠ ⎝ 6⎠ 1296
VCE Maths Methods - Unit 4 - The binomial distribution 8
 How many trials?

• Each roll of the die has 1/6 chance of rolling a 6. How many trials (rolls)
are needed to have a 90% probability of rolling a 6 at least once?
• At least one 6 rolled in x trials includes all possible options expect for
rolling none.
0 x x
Pr(X = 0)= ⎛ 1⎞ ⎛ 5 ⎞ ⎛ 5 ⎞
× =
⎝ 6⎠ ⎝ 6⎠ ⎝ 6⎠
x
Pr(X > 0)=1− ⎛ 5⎞
⎝ 6⎠
x x
0.9 =1− ⎛ 5⎞
0.1= ⎛ 5⎞
(Or solve on a CAS calculator.)
⎝ 6⎠ ⎝ 6⎠

log(0.1)= xlog ⎛ 5⎞
x=
log(0.1)
≈13 (Always round up)
⎝ 6⎠ log(5/6)
VCE Maths Methods - Unit 4 - The binomial distribution 9
 How many trials?

• Each roll of the die has 1/6 chance of rolling a 6. How many rolls are
needed to have a 90% probability of rolling a 6 at least twice?

Pr(X ≥2)= 90%

Pr(X <2)=10% = Pr(X = 0)+Pr(X =1)
0 n 1 n−1
10% = C 0 × ⎛ 1⎞ ⎛ 5 ⎞ n
n
+ C1 × ⎛ 1⎞ ⎛ 5 ⎞
⎝ 6⎠ ⎝ 6⎠ ⎝ 6⎠ ⎝ 6⎠
n 1 n−1
10% =1×1× ⎛ 5⎞
+n × ⎛ 1⎞ ⎛ 5 ⎞
⎝ 6⎠ ⎝ 6⎠ ⎝ 6⎠
n 1 n−1
0.10 = ⎛ 5⎞
+n × ⎛ 1⎞ ⎛ 5 ⎞
(Solve on a CAS calculator.)
⎝ 6⎠ ⎝ 6⎠ ⎝ 6⎠
n ≈22 (Always round up)
VCE Maths Methods - Unit 4 - The binomial distribution 10
 Using the TI-nSpire

• CAS calculators and spreadsheets have a built in function for binomial

distributions.
• For example Pr (X=0) from four dice:
Menu > 5: Probability > 5: Distributions > D: Binomial Pdf
• The cumulative distribution (Cdf) is used to find the sum of all probabilities
above or below a value of X eg Pr (X≤3).

0 4
Pr(X = 0)= 4 C 0 × ⎛ ⎞ × ⎛ ⎞ = 48.2%
1 5
⎝ 6⎠ ⎝ 6⎠

VCE Maths Methods - Unit 4 - The binomial distribution 11

 Mean & standard deviation

• A probability distribution has a mean (expected value) and standard

deviation (average variation from mean). For the binomial distribution:

E(X )= np Var(X )= np(1− p)

Four coin toss: E(X )= 4 ×0.5 =2
Var(X )= 4 ×0.5×0.5 =1
SD(X )= 1=1 The highest variance is
when there is 50% chance
of success.
1 2
Rolling four dice: E(X )= 4 × = = 0.67
6 3
1 5 20
Var(X )= 4 × × = = 0.56
6 6 36
SD(X )= 0.56 = 0.75
VCE Maths Methods - Unit 4 - The binomial distribution 12
 Graphs of probability distributions

• This distribution is for ten trials.

• If the chance of success is 50%, the distribution is symmetrical.

Pr (X=x) Pr = 0.5
40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
x

VCE Maths Methods - Unit 4 - The binomial distribution 13

 Graphs of probability distributions

• If the chance of success is less than 50%, the distribution is skewed

towards the right.
• The expected value of X is less than the middle value.
Pr (X=x) Pr = 0.2
40%

30%

20%

Values too small to see.

10%

0%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
x

VCE Maths Methods - Unit 4 - The binomial distribution 14

 Graphs of probability distributions

• If the chance of success is more than 50%, the distribution is skewed

towards the left.
• The expected value of X is greater than the middle value.
Pr (X=x) Pr = 0.8
40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
x

VCE Maths Methods - Unit 4 - The binomial distribution 15