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April 2015
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The Malaysian oil and gas industry
A SWOT analysis
Opportunities
very strong impact on the
Weaknesses
Malaysian economy. The growth
Strengths
Threats
of the industry has been shaped
by global megatrends like
resource scarcity and the impact
of emerging markets. Falling
productivity along with cost
pressures and competitive forces
are challenging oil and gas
companies to find new and • High quality oil • Shortage of • Deepwater potential • Low oil price
innovative ways to effectively reserves – talent with is underexplored environment to
meet investor expectations and deemed light and sufficient skills • Marginal fields hit longer term
to meet the world’s growing sweet • Many producing could hold production
demand for energy. • Net exporter of fields are mature undiscovered prospects
crude oil • High capital potential as • Delays in project
This document discusses some of technology execution and
• One of the outlay for
the emerging themes progresses asset delivery
world's largest upstream
characterising the sector, producers of LNG activities • Shift of attention by • Long waiting
including the challenges and large international period for RSCs
• Established
opportunities in store for oil and market well-
oil companies to given marginal
gas companies in relation to the developed markets fields project
supported by
current state of play in Malaysia. provides field freeze due to
auxiliary
opportunities for falling oil prices
industry
smaller local-based • Insolvency/take-
independents over risks for
• Acquisitions of highly-geared
assets at discounted companies
prices • Pengerang’s
• Tax incentives given development as a
by government regional oil and
• Newly introduced gas hub faces
Risk Sharing fierce competition
Contracts (RSC) is from Singapore
an opportunity for
companies to
explore marginal
fields, which
mitigates risk of
non-discovery
Over a century ago in 1910, Malaysia Flash forward to the present day,
marked its foundation in oil and gas Malaysia has become a key hub for
when the first oil well was drilled in major oil and gas companies. It has
Miri, Sarawak. The well started off over 400 oil and gas fields, the second
with a mere production of 83 barrels largest reserves in ASEAN and is the
per day (bbls/d) and reached a world’s third-largest exporter of
maximum of 15,000 bbls/d 20 years liquefied natural gas (LNG).
later. At the time, Shell was the only PETRONAS has also grown in tandem
company that drilled the well. with the maturing of the industry in
Malaysia and is now a global player
Shortly after Malaysia’s independence, achieving many industry milestones.
the oil and gas industry was governed This well- established ecosystem is now
by the Petroleum Mining Act 1966 one of the driving forces behind the
(Act 95). Under the new decree, a development of Malaysia’s economy,
concession system was instigated for contributing 20% towards GDP.
upstream activities where
multinational corporations (MNCs)
such as Shell and Exxon were given
exclusive rights to explore and
produce resources in return for
payment of royalty and taxes to the
government.
3500
3000 Philippines
Thousand Barrels per Day
2500
Brunei
Vietnam
2000 Thailand
1500 Malaysia
1000
500 Indonesia
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Malaysian Investment Development Authority (MIDA): Meet Malaysia: Investment Opportunities in
Asia’s Oil and Gas Hub (2013)
China
India
Billion Barrels
Vietnam
Malaysia
Indonesia
Australia
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
1500
1000
500
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
East Malaysia has been supporting the marginal growth of reserves from
Peninsular Malaysia since 1992 as seen in Chart 4. The explorations off the
coasts of Sabah and Sarawak continue to result in more commercial resources.
5
Billion Barrels
0
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
The decline of oil discovery from many mature fields after almost three decades
of production has driven the industry towards new methods of exploration.
This, alongside the fact that consumption of oil is catching up with production
as seen in Chart 5 has instigated more diverse exploration efforts to preserve
lucrative export volumes. High profile discoveries such as Shell’s deepwater
field discovery of Marjoram-1 and Petrofac’s discovery in Cendor’s marginal
field within the last three years will continue to stimulate exploration through
these methods:
i. Deepwater fields
ii. Marginal and Stranded fields previously thought to be commercially
unfeasible
iii. Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and improved oil recovery (IOR)
developments
750
600
450
300
150
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Production Consumption
Consumption
Malaysia’s oil and gas policy has historically focused on providing affordable
commodity to the population through subsidising fuel. This has been a factor for
high levels of fuel consumption in the country. However in an attempt to control
consumption and free up capital for PETRONAS in exploration and production,
the government has introduced subsidy reforms, with fuel subsidies eventually
phased out in 2015.
2002 2012
Electricity Electricity
18% 21%
Biofuels
5% Biofuels
4%
Oil
51%
Oil
LNG 57%
17% LNG
21%
Coal
Coal
3%
3%
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
There are over 3,500 oil and gas businesses in Malaysia, including
international oil companies, independents, services and manufacturing
companies. This has created a strong network of players in both the services
and manufacturing segments that support the needs of the O&G value chain
both domestically and regionally.
100%
ExxonMobil Malaysia n/a 1.8 2,000 1961 n/a
ExxonMobil
Caltex Oil Malaysia n/a 0.3 250 1937 n/a 100% Chevron
100%
ConocoPhillips n/a 0.1 200e n/a n/a
ConocoPhillips
100%
Murphy Oil 6.8 49 400 1999 n/a
Murphy Oil
The most significant discovery from a Other projects are located offshore Stunted Production Growth
marginal field is Petrofac's oil find at Sabah and Sarawak, such as Baram
As a reaction to CAPEX cuts and
the Cendor field. Once thought to and St Joseph, and in Peninsular
PETRONAS’ dominance in the
only hold 12mn bbl of recoverable oil, Malaysia, such as Tapis and Dulang.
industry, growth and development
Petrofac announced in May 2013 that There are around 10 EOR projects
will be adversely impacted. It is
it hit oil and gas-bearing reservoirs currently in the pipeline, to be
anticipated that the reduction in
that led it to raise recoverable developed over the next 10 years.
CAPEX will first affect exploration
estimates to about 200mn bbl, However, these projects are
and this will likely become apparent
transforming a field deemed marginal technically challenging and
towards the end of the decade, as the
into one of the biggest oilfields in expensive, requiring $USD14bn to
potential in production growth could
Malaysia. execute. Innovation is required to
slow down. The cut in spending will
lower overall costs, improve the
Enhanced oil recovery likely hit Malaysia's longer term
performance of existing technology
output, which is forecasted to
It is estimated that the average oil and develop new technology.
stagnate through to 2024 at between
recovery factor of producing fields in 570,000-580,000b/d.
Malaysia is 33-37% of oil-initially-in- 2. Reduction in oil price
place (OIIP). The Malaysian Market Consolidation
government and PETRONAS have Trimmed capital expenditure Historically, turbulent times in the
made this method a priority because (CAPEX) market due to a reduction in oil price
at least half of the country’s
In 2014, International Oil Companies will cause the market to enter a
producing fields have the potential
(IOCs) trimmed CAPEX and their consolidation phase. During the oil
for EOR. PETRONAS is expected to
interest in Asia. Pressure from price collapse in 1998, a wave of
spend RM1.1b in research and
shareholders and a steep 60% decline mergers and acquisitions happened
development for EOR over the next
in oil prices will see IOCs further to gain economies of scale, which
few years. As a result, a wide-scale
rationalise their portfolios to focus on saw the creation of super major
application of EOR could increase
higher margin projects which Asia player ExxonMobil, among many
OIIP by more than 5-10%.
will not be able to support. others. Small Malaysian start-up
In September 2013, PETRONAS companies that have high cost
identified 14 oilfields where EOR Consequently in Malaysia, structures could be susceptible to
technology could be implemented in PETRONAS is taking the lead in takeovers or mergers. This is because
the coming years. It is expected that CAPEX cuts with a reduction of 15% over the last five years, small
production from these identified oil for the year. A reduction in CAPEX companies have been making sales
fields could reach between 750mn to may imminently cause delays in on oil that costs US$100bbl; but with
1bn bbl. The Tapis EOR project that capital intensive exploration projects an average price of US$50bbl,
has been announced will see oil which could hit longer term companies might not be able to
production increase fivefold within production output. financially adapt and survive in the
the next three years. current environment.
1. LNG 2. Petrochemicals
There is a long list of prolific Malaysia’s strategy to become a net
discoveries and major projects set to exporter in petrochemicals makes
commence between 2013 and 2018 this segment an attractive one. For
that would see the production of gas example, Petron is planning a
continue to trend upwards. New gas $USD1.5bn investment into its
fields have been identified to off-set refining and retail business in
the declining production in older Malaysia. Besides this, a potential
fields. These projects are mostly in 400,000b/d refinery that could be
expanded to 800,000b/d in Yan,
Bintulu, Sarawak, where PETRONAS
Kedah is also in the pipeline.
holds three major LNG production
Merapoh Resources has secured a
facilities at their LNG complex with a
$USD10bn investment for this
total capacity of 35 billion cubic
refinery. The plant is planned to be
meters (bcm). The complex is
linked to the Trans-Peninsular
running between 85-90% of total
Pipeline Project designed to process
capacity which hastens the need for
imported crude oil to East Asia.
expansion.
As part of Malaysia's Economic
PETRONAS has embarked on the
Transformation Programme, two
country’s first commercial Floating
new oil and gas industrial parks
LNG (FLNG) facility which is
(which together make up for
expected to be operational in 2015.
600,000 b/d of refinery capacity)
The potential of Malaysia’s offshore
have been proposed:
gas fields makes this new technology
a central part of investments. i. Pengerang Integrated
Accordingly, a second FLNG facility Petroleum Complex (PIPC)
has also reached a final investment
decision (FID) and is expected to PIPC is an initiative promoted by
come online by 2018. These new the state government of Johor to
projects are expected to increase make the southern part of
production capacity by 15-16%. Malaysia the prime oil and gas
hub in the region. The 20,000-
acre industrial project will be an
integrated facilities complex that
will house oil refining and
petrochemical facilities, oil
storage facilities, import
terminals, and an LNG
liquefaction terminal.
The year could see an increase in crude oil and other liquids
production, with the start-up of gas projects like FLNG
contributing significant volumes of condensate to the
region's total liquids output.
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