Thayer Consultancy Background Brief

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Trump-Kim Singapore Summit:
First Step in Protracted Process
June 14,2018

We request your views on the summit meeting in Singapore between U.S, President
Donald Trump and North Korea's Chairman Kim Jong-un.
1> - What do you think about the outcome of the Summit?
ANSWER: The summit meeting between President Donald Trump and Chairman Kim
jong-un will accelerate the relaxation of tensions on the Korean peninsula since the
Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang in February. Prior to the summit a combination of
factors - verbal and text threats by Trump, major power cooperation in securirig"
tougher UN sanctions, initiatives by South Korea's Present Moon Jae-in and two
meetings in China between Kim Jong-un and XiJin-ping - led Kim Jong-un to stop firing
ballistic missile, stop conducting nuclear tests and destroying North Korea's test site .
Now the two leaders, Trump and Kim, have committed their prestige to denuclearizing
the Korean peninsula and opening a new phase of positive relations.
The summit marks only the first step in a process that will be protracted. Trump and
Kim signed a non-binding joint statement outlining in broad terms their commitment
to achieve four goals: (1) new bilateral relations, (2)joint efforts to build a lasting and
stable peace on the Korean peninsula, (3) work towards the complete
denuclearization of the Korean peninsula and (a) recover and repatriate POW/MlA
remains from the Korean War.

Besides the leaders' joint statement, more details of discussions have been revealed
by President Trump in his long press conference in Singapore as well as media
interviews on his return to the United States and a press conference by Secretary Mike
Pompeo. Trump stated that after the joint statement was signed Kim told him that
North Korea would destroy a factory that tested engines for ballistic missiles. Trump
stated he would end "war games" (military exercises) with South Korea because this
would improve the atmosphere for future cooperation. Trump also noted that the
process of denuclearization would take a long time and he might consider pulling out
all U,S. troops from South Korea in the future.
More details of what was agreed in talks at the Summit, as well as between Secretary
of State Pompeo and his North Korean counterpart, Kim Young-chol, indicate that the
two sides have already reached preliminary agreement on how to proceed. Technical
talks between the U.S. and North Korea should yield an agenda and a roadmap to
guide denuclearizaton. Pompeo expressed his hope that substantial progress on
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denuclearization would take place before Trump's first term in office ends. This is likely
to be overly optimistic.
2> - lmplications for the denuclearization roadmap of Korean Peninsula and U.S.-DPRK
(Democratic People's Republic of Korea) relations?

ANSWER: The words complete verifiable irreversible denuclearization (CVID) were not
included in the joint statement. This indicates that the U,S. nuclear umbrella to protect
South Korea (and Japan) and U.S. ballistic missile defence, or Terminal High Altitude
Area Defence (THAAD), may part of a package deal.
The joint statement mentioned "complete denuclearization" on the Korean peninsula
in line with the Panmunjom Declaration of April 27,2018. This Declaration only set a
general goal. lt stated,
South and North Korea confirmed the common goal of realizing, through complete
denuclearization, a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula. South and North Korea shared the view
that the measures being initiated by North Korea are very meaningful and crucial for the
denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and agreed to carry out their respective roles
and responsibilities in this regard. South and North Korea agreed to actively seek the
support and cooperation of the international community for the denuclearization of the
Korean Peninsula.

Denuclearization may take the form of a long process of action for action (freeze for
freeze) including the partial and then full lifting of sanctions. Trump has already
indicated the U.S. will not contribute economically but that he expected South Korea
and Japan to do so generously.

So we are looking at a lengthytime frame. As long as progress on denuclearization is

positive, U.S.-DPRK relations will improve. Trump has already signaled that he will
invite Kim to the White House. The two sides may normalize diplomatic relations and
open diplomatic missions in each other's capital.
So far Trump has undertaken his initiative with Kim unilaterally only informing South
Korea and Japan after the fact, Once the process of denuclearization is initiated Trump
will have to work closely with these two allies. Difficulties could arise over differing
interests. For example, Trump may accept the destruction of intercontinental ballistic
missiles, while Japan and South Korea would insist on the destruction of short and
medium range ballistic missiles.
3> - China's possible response/reactions?

ANSWER: The Panmunjom Declaration makes reference to either trilateral (the two
Koreas and the United States) or quadrilateral meetings (plus China)to reach a formal
agreement ending the Korean War.
China welcomes the outcome of the summit and the resolve of the two sides to work
on the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. lt is in China's interestsfor
this process to take place step by step over a period of time and not result in any
destabilization in North Korea.
China would very much like to see the end to joint U.S.-ROK (Republic of Korea)
military exercises and the removal of THAAD systems. China would very much like to
be a part of any diplomatic process to end the Korean War and as well China would
 Thayer Consultancy Background Brief
ABN # 65 648 097 123
United States: Is Trump
Inadvertently Rearrangin g the
Regional Security Architecture?

June 14,2018

We request your analytic input into a report we are preparing.

Our questions are as follows:

Q1. Stopping military exercises with South Korea, potentially bringing American troops
in South Korea home, that is what U.S. President Trump said after meeting Kim Jong-
un. Do you think perhaps this could be a start of some changes in the Asia-Pacific
security architecture, and would you say some changes are needed? Or that basically
nothing, has changed and why?
ANSWER: President Trump's statement that he would end "war games" because they
were too expensive and provocative was made without prior consultation with the
Republic of Korea, a treaty ally. This should cause concerns throughout the lndo-
Pacific region among America's treaty allies and strategic partners because it indicates
that Trump is prepared to act unilaterally.
Trump has also exposed his ignorance. The so-called war games were combined
military exercises between South Korea and the United States designed for a crisis
contingency in which the U.S. would inject land forces into South Korea. By cancelling
these exercises Trump is in effect undermining interoperability among allied forces
and making it more difficult for them to defend South Korea.
Trump's reference to the cost of military exercises sounds like a business executive
looking at his balance sheet. The cost of military exercises must be offset by the much
larger costs should an armed conflict break out. ln other words, Trump does not want
to pay a premium on insurance because its detracts from the profit margin.
Quite clearly, if the prolonged process of denuclearization is successful, itwill lead to
a lowering of tensions and increased trust between North Korea and the United States
and South Korea. President Trump clarified his remarks about the removal of
American troops by saying it was not under consideration at the present time. lf the
U.S. removes troops in a phased process this will alter the military balance on the
ground. South Korea could still remain a treaty ally like Australia.
Additionally, if North Korea completely denuclearized and destroyed its ballistic
missiles, this would mean that the U.S. nuclear umbrella - or extended deterrence -
was no longer necessaryto dealwith the threat from North Korea. But the end of the
nuclear threat does not mean that South Korea and Japan would feel secure. China
and Russia could emerge as North Korea's new security partners. The U.S. alliance
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system could be maintained to deal with conventional threats. To the extent that
Japan and South Korea feelthe need for protection against Chinese nuclear blackmail,
the rationale for the alliance with the United States providing extended deterrence
would remain.
The U.S. alliance system would likely atrophy if China became a cooperative partner
in the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. The U.S. alliance system could be
supplanted by a regional security mechanism for North East Asia. None exists at
present. The new regional security mechanism could include the members to the
former Six Party Talks - the two Koreas, China, Japan, the United States and possibly
Russia.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "United States: ls Trump lnadvertently

Rearranging the Regional Security Architecture?," Thoyer Consultancy Background
Brief , June 14, 2018. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.