International Journal of Sediment Research 32 (2017) 171–179

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International Journal of Sediment Research

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ijsrc

Original Research

Analyses of trends and causes for variations in runoff and sediment

load of the Yellow River
Hongling Shi a,n, Chunhong Hu a, Yangui Wang b, Cheng Liu b, Huimei Li a
a
State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,
No. 20 Chegongzhuang West Road, Haidian District, 100048 Beijing, China
b
International Research and Training Center on Erosion and Sedimentation, No. 20 Chegongzhuang West Road, Haidian District, 100048 Beijing, China

art ic l e i nf o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Due to the impacts of globe climate change and human activities, dramatic variations in runoff and
Received 27 February 2016 sediment load were observed for the Yellow River. Analyses of nearly 65 years’ data measured at main
Received in revised form hydrologic-stations on the Yellow River from 1950 to 2014 indicated that, except for the Tangnaihai
27 September 2016
station in the head region, sharp downward trends existed in both the annual runoff and annual sedi-
Accepted 28 September 2016
ment load according to the Mann–Kendal trend test; and their abrupt changes occurred in 1986 and in
Available online 4 October 2016
1980, respectively, according to the rank sum test. Factors affecting the changes in the runoff and
Keywords: sediment load were very complicated. Results indicated that the reducing precipitation and the
Yellow River increasing water consumption were the main causes for the runoff decline, while the impoundment of
Runoff
the Longyangxia Reservoir and its combined operation with the Liujiaxia Reservoir exerted a direct
Sediment load
bearing on the abrupt change in the annual runoff. In addition to the sediment load decrease associated
Variation trends
with the runoff reduction, the reduced storm intensity, the conducted soil erosion control, and the
constructed dam buildings all played an important role in the trends and abrupt changes of sediment
load decline.
& 2017 Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of International Research and Training Centre on Erosion and
Sedimentation/the World Association for Sedimentation and Erosion Research.

1. Introduction Huanghuaihai Alluvial Plain in the lower reaches where it perched

As the main components of a river, the water and sediment
definitely affect the fluvial processes of the river. Therefore, under
the influence of global climate change and human activities, the
variations of river water and sediment have been the concerned
issues. So does the Yellow River, the mother river of the Chinese
people.
The Yellow River basin is vast in area with varying natural and
geographical conditions. The imbalance of sources of water and
sediment throughout the basin is very prominent (Zhao, 1996). As
the second longest river in China, with a length of 5,464 km and
drainage area of 752,000 km2, the Yellow River originates from the
Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The river flows northeast in the upper
reaches where it endowed with abundant runoff; turns southward
across the Loess Plateau in the middle reaches where it suffered
from serious soil erosion; and wanders eastward through the
n divided the water flux sequences into 4 phases by the abrupt
Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: shihl@iwhr.com (H. Shi), huch@iwhr.com (C. Hu),
wangyg@iwhr.com (Y. Wang), chliu@iwhr.com (C. Liu).
above the ground (as shown in Fig. 1).
Besides the impacts of global climate change, the Yellow River
has also suffered from serious impacts of human activities. Since
the 1960s, large-scale artificial projects have been carried out
along the Yellow River, such as reservoir construction, soil and
water conservation, irrigation diversion etc., casting significant
impacts on spatio-temporal distribution of water and sediment of
the river. The 12 large reservoirs constructed along the stem Yel-
low River have a total capacity surpassing the natural runoff of the
river (showing in Table 1 and Fig. 1). In particular, such reservoirs
as the Longyangxia, Liujiaxia, Sanmenxia, and Xiaolangdi Reser-
voirs played a crucial role in regulating the water and sediment.
Many researchers have studied the variations in runoff and
sediment load of the Yellow River, and indicated the decline trends
in most stations. As the significant of the fluxes of water and
sediment from the Yellow River into the sea as concerned, the
variations of runoff and sediment load at Lijin Station, the last
control station of the river are more focus on. Ding and Pan (2007)
points of 1968, 1985, 1996; and attributed that the increased
intensively water diversion from the river is the main cause of

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijsrc.2016.09.002
1001-6279/& 2017 Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of International Research and Training Centre on Erosion and Sedimentation/the World Association for Sedimentation
and Erosion Research.
172 H. Shi et al. / International Journal of Sediment Research 32 (2017) 171–179

sediment load of the river by using mathematical methods;

(2) analyze the relativities between the variation of runoff or
sediment load and the drive factors, such as the climate change,
including the precipitation and the temperature; and human
activities, including reservoirs construction, the soil conservation
and water abstraction from the Yellow River, and find the main
causes.

2. Data and methods

2.1. Gauging stations and data

Fig. 1. Sketch map of the Yellow River Basin. The Yellow River is a prominent heavily sediment-laden stream
in the world. Based on a complete data set from China River
Table 1 Sediment Bulletin, the spatial and temporal distribution of water
Basic information of main reservoirs on stem of the Yellow River.
and sediment of the main stem could be analyzed and recognized.
Reservoirs Control area Capacity Date of commissioning The selected hydrological stations on the main stem including the
(103 km2) (109 m3) (Y.M) Tangnaihai, Lanzhou and Toudaoguai in the upper reaches, the
Longmen and Tongguan in the middle reaches, and the
Longyangxia 131.4 24.7 1986.10
Huayuankou and Lijin in the lower reaches (see Fig. 1). Time per-
Liujiaxia 181.8 5.7 1968.10
Qingtongxia 275 0.606 1967.04 iods of hydrological data at most of the selected stations were
Sanshenggong 314 0.08 1961.04 ranged from 1950 to 2014. The mean annual runoff and mean
Wanjiazhai 395 0.896 1998.10 annual sediment load are illustrated in Table 2.
Sanmenxia 688.4 9.64 1960.10
Xiaolangdi 694.5 12.65 1999.10
2.1.1. Imbalance sources of runoff and sediment load
The Yellow River basin has many areas with distinct geo-
runoff decreasing; Liu et al. (2011) divided the sediment flux graphies, and the source regions of the natural runoff and sedi-
sequences into 4 phases by the abrupt points of 1955, 1962, 1968; ment are inconsistent and separated (Shi et al., 2007). By analyzing
Peng and Chen (2009) assessed the human activities were the the values in Table 2, one can find that 83% of runoff is coming
main cause for the reduction of water and sediments into sea; Xu from the reaches above Lanzhou station, where it only accounts for
(2002) and Xu and Sun (2003) estimated the changes in water and 30% of total basin area. This confirms that the catchment above the
sediment fluxes into the sea with established multiple regression Lanzhou station is the main water source area in the Yellow River.
equations. Furth more, regarding to the varying natural and geo- By the same way, the main sediment sources area is the catchment
graphical conditions and the different sources of water and sedi- corresponding to the reaches from Toudaoguai (or Hekou town) to
Longmen station, which is used to be called the Hekou-Longmen
ment, the variations of runoff and sediment load along the Yellow
reach, where the annual average sediment yield accounts for 59%
River are studied in detail. Liu et al. (2012) reported that except
of the Tongguan hydrologic station, while the region area accounts
Tangnaihai station, located at the head water region, the runoffs at
for only 17% of total basin area.
other stations, representative nearly the whole catchment of the
Because of the different sources of runoff and sediment load,
river, had decreased significantly and the abrupt change occurred
the runoff variation in the upper reaches above the Lanzhou sta-
around 1985; Fu et al. (2007) studied the impact of global climate
tion (including head water region) and the sediment load variation
change, and reported that the runoff of the river was sensitive to
in the Hekou-Longmen reach in the middle reaches can directly
both precipitation and temperature; Li and Yang (2004) and Liu
result in variations in water and sediment for the whole river,
et al. (2008) implied that, after 1970s', the noticeable impacts of
respectively.
human activities on the changes in runoff depth and sediment
yield of the Yellow River, since the headwater region has hardly
2.1.2. Representative stations of water and sediment
been affected by human activities; Wang et al. (2007) indicated It is found in Table 2 that, not as the most other rivers, the
that sediment load of the Yellow River had undergone distinct fluxes of runoff and sediment are not occurred at the last control
stepwise decreases, and the proportion contributed from pre- station, with largest catchment – the Lijin station. As a con-
cipitation, soil conservation and reservoirs retention are around sequence, the Lijin station could not be the representative station
30%, 40% and 30% above the middle reaches, which includes the for runoff and sediment load of the Yellow River basin. Owing to
main sediment yield region. the huge amount of water diversion out of the middle and lower
These previous achievement have mainly focused on describing reaches, the annual runoff at the Huayuankou station is larger than
the variations and discussing the causes separately on the runoff that at the Lijin station, although the former is located upstream of
or sediment load of the Yellow River during the 1950s–2000s, and the latter; so does the reaches of Lanzhou to Toudaoguai station.
some conclusions were inconsistent; besides, for the correlation Therefore, the Huayuankou station is identified as the repre-
analysis between variation of runoff/sediment load and influence sentative station for Yellow River runoff, which includes the main
factors are still not so comprehensive. runoff source regions, possess the highest volume of runoff, and
Considering the significance of the incoming volumes of water accounts for 97% of the basin area. For sediment, the volume of
and sediment in the near future on the whole Yellow River basin sediment load along the lower reaches shows negative growth
planning and management, it is very important and urgent to keep because of the serious sediment deposition in the lower reaches.
attention and makes clear the rules of water and sediment varia- As a result, the Tongguan station is identified as the representative
tion trends and to probe the contributions of driving factors. station for Yellow River sediment load, which includes the main
Therefore, this study aims to (1) update the study data sequences sediment sources region, possess the highest volume of sediment
until the year of 2014 and confirm the trends of the runoff and load, and accounts for 91% of the basin area.
 H. Shi et al. / International Journal of Sediment Research 32 (2017) 171–179 173

Table 2
Statistics of annual runoff and annual sediment load of key stations on main stem of the Yellow River

Item Period Tangnaihai Lanzhou Toudaoguai Longmen Tongguan Huayuankou Lijin

Area(103 km2) 122 223 368 498 682 730 752

9 3
Mean annual runoff(10 m ) 1950s 18.8 31.5 24.6 30.6 42.8 48.6 47.4
1960s 21.6 35.8 27.1 33.7 45.1 50.6 50.1
1970s 20.4 31.8 23.3 28.5 35.7 38.2 31.1
1980s 24.1 33.4 23.9 27.6 36.9 41.2 28.6
1990s 17.6 26.0 15.7 19.8 24.9 25.7 14.1
2000s 17.4 26.8 14.7 17.0 21.0 23.2 14.1
2010sn 21.7 32.3 20.5 22.2 28.3 30.2 20.2
Totalnn 20.1 31.0 21.5 25.9 33.7 37.3 29.5

Account for Huayuankou 54 83 58 69 90 100 79

Mean annual sediment load(106 t) 1950s 7.10 133 153 1189 1826 1560 1368
1960s 11.8 100 183 1132 1423 1113 1089
1970s 12.2 57.4 115 868 1318 1236 898
1980s 19.8 44.7 97.8 470 780 775 639
1990s 10.9 51.6 41.0 509 790 684 390
2000s 7.47 21.7 39.6 177 311 103 134
2010sn 11.7 17.0 54.7 107 188 94.5 129
Totalnn 12.0 64.1 101 677 980 849 684

Account for Tongguan 1 7 10 69 100 87 70

n
the years of 2010–2014;
nn
the years of 1950–2014.

2.2. Research methods independent and have the same continuous distribution, they are
computed as follows:
2.2.1. Method for trend analysis
nðn  1Þ
For analysis of trends in a long series of hydrologic and sedi- EðSk Þ ¼ ð3Þ
4
ment data, the commonly used methods include moving average
test, linear regression trend test, Spearman Rank correlation test, nðn  1Þð2n þ5Þ
Mann-Kendall rank correlation test, and the cumulative equity VarðSk Þ ¼ ð4Þ
72
method (Xu, 2007; Xu & He, 2005) The Mann–Kendall (M-K) rank
When n increases, UFk can rapidly converge to the standard normal
correlation test is a kind of non-parameter statistical test method
distribution. If UFk is greater than 0, it indicates that the sequence
and is often used to evaluate the trend for climatic elements-
rises; if it is less than 0, the sequence drops. For a given significance
related time sequences. It has the advantages of neither needing to
level α, looking up normal distribution table, if |UFk|4Uα, it indicates
follow a sample distribution nor being interfered by a few abnor-
that the sequence has an obvious trend variation.
mal values. Thus it is more suitable to class variable and ordinal
variable trends determining analyses (Huang et al., 2002; Li et al.,
2.2.2. Method for abrupt changes analysis
2005; Yue et al., 2002).
For the analysis of hydrologic sequence trend, the possible leap
This method features with wide applications and high quanti-
during the trend variation shall also be explored. The leap (abrupt
fication (Qin et al., 2005). In consideration of its advantages and
the availability of water and sediment data from main hydrologic change) refers to the abrupt changes in hydrologic sequence when
stations on the main stem, the M-K rank correlation test was it transforms from one status into another one; the turning point
selected to analyze the variation trend of water and sediment in that the time sequence changes abruptly is the abrupt change
the basin. point. The abrupt change refers to the parallel rise or drop of the
The basic principle of M-K statistical test (Zhang et al., 2007) is statistical characteristics of hydrologic sequence (often refers to
for the time sequence of x1, x2, …, xn with n samples to construct a the average of the sequence) before and after the abrupt change
rank sequence: point. The abrupt changes of hydrologic sequence are caused by
human or natural factors.
k X
X i1   For the determination of abrupt changes, one should first find the
Sk ¼ sign xi xj ðk ¼ 2; 3; 4; …; nÞ ð1Þ
i¼2j¼1
abrupt change point and then conduct a significance test on the
abrupt change in the hydrologic sequences before and after the abrupt
in which: change point. In this article, a simple and intuitive correlation curve of

  þ1 when xi 4 xj cumulative time sequence is selected to determine the abrupt change
sign xi  xj ¼ ð j ¼ 1; 2; 3; …; i  1Þ
0 else point and the rank sum test is used to test the abrupt changes.
For a research sequence of x1, x2, …, xn and reference sequence
It can be seen that Sk is the cumulative number of values in x2, of y1, y2, …, yn, we can compute their cumulative time sequences
x3, …, xk, with each value being greater than previous ones. respectively.
Under the assumption that the time sequence is randomly
9
independent, a statistical variable is defined as follows: Xj
>
gj ¼ xt >
>
>
>
½Sk  EðSk Þ i¼1
=
UF k ¼ ðk ¼ 2; 3; 4; …; nÞ ð2Þ ð j ¼ 1; 2; …; nÞ ð5Þ
½VarðSk Þ1=2 X >
j
>
mj ¼ >
yt >
>
;
where UF1 ¼0; E(Sk) and Var(Sk) are the average and variance of i¼1
cumulative Sk, respectively. When x1, x2, …, xn are mutually
174 H. Shi et al. / International Journal of Sediment Research 32 (2017) 171–179

The relationship diagram between points sinks mj and gj is
draw according to Eq. (5). If the leap of research sequence of Xt is
not obvious, then the relation between mj and gj is a beeline
through the origin, otherwise it is a fold line with turning point at
the abrupt change point.
After the abrupt change point is determined, it shall be checked
whether there is an obvious difference between the first and the
second parts. If yes, there is a leap, or the leap is not obvious.
We assume a hydrologic sequence of x1, x2, …, xτ, xτ þ 1, xτ þ 2, …
xn, of which the abrupt change point is τ, the numbers before and
after τ are determined as n1 and n2. The sequence is ranked from
low to high or from high to low and it is numbered uniformly
(from 1) and the corresponding number of each value is defined as
its “rank”. The rank sum of samples with small capacity is denoted
as W. When n1, n2 410, W approaches normal distribution.
A statistical variable can be defined as follows:
 
W  n1 ðn1 þ2n2 þ 1Þ
U ¼ qffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi ð6Þ
n1 n2 ðn1 þ n2 þ 1Þ
12
For a given significance level α, the w value of Uα/2 can be
computed. When |U| is greater than Uα/2, a leap occurs before and
after the abrupt change point, otherwise the leap is not obvious.
different degrees of the downward trends. Before 1969, the M-K
test values of annual runoff fluctuated around 0 and showed no
obvious upward or downward trend; during 1969  1986, the
M-K test values showed fluctuant downward trend; after 1986,
the M-K test values at each station showed continuous
downward trend.
Similar chart analysis is done for the annual sediment load (see
Fig. 3). Except for the Tangnaihai Station, the M-K test values of
annual sediment load at each station indicated that both 1980 and
1999 can be taken as demarcation points. The M-K test values at
each station before 1960 fluctuated widely above 0; in 1960s and
1970s, the M-K test values showed downward trend with a small
amplitude; after 1980, the M-K test values at each station showed
rapid downward trend in general, and especially after 1999, the
downward trend dropped sharply and almost no backward.
Furthermore, by comparing Figs. 2 and 3, when we keep eyes
on the differences between runoff and sediment at the same sta-
tion, it could not difficult to find that, except for the Tangnaihai
Station, the sediment load showing downward trend is earlier and
steeper than that of runoff at other stations. It is means that, the
year when the annual sediment load shows obvious downward
trend is earlier than that when the annual runoff shows obvious
downward trend; and for the sequences of more than 60 years

3. Trend analyses

3.1. Annual runoff and annual sediment load

M-K trend analysis was conducted for annual runoff and annual
sediment load sequences at main hydrologic stations on the Yel-
low River, and the calculated results are shown in Table 3 and
Figs. 2 and 3.
According to Table 3, for the 65 years’ long sequence samples
until 2014, the M-K statistical values of annual runoff and annual
sediment load sequences at each station on the Yellow River are all
less than 0.
Except for the headwater reach Tangnaihai Station, the absolute
standard values of M-K test for annual runoff and annual sediment
load sequences at other stations are all beyond the critical value
1.96, when the significance level α ¼0.05 (U0.05/2 ¼1.96), and even
over the critical value 2.58 when the significance level α ¼0.01
(U0.01/2 ¼2.58). The conclusion could be drawn that except for the
Tangnaihai Station at the head water region, which shows no
obvious downward trend, the other stations have an obvious
decline tendency both in annual runoff and annual sediment load
sequences.
To further analyze the annual runoff variation trend at the main
hydrologic stations, a graph of M-K statistical value sequence is
plotted in Fig. 2. Except for the Tangnaihai Station, the M-K test
values of annual runoff at each station indicated that both 1969
and 1986 can be taken as the demarcation points between

Table 3
M-K trend test of annual runoff and annual sediment load at main hydrologic
stations.

M-K test items Annual runoff Annual sediment load

M-K Trend M-K Trend

Upper reaches Tangnaihai  0.93 No  0.5 No

Lanzhou  2.21 Reduced  6.11 Reduced
Toudaoguai  4.1 Reduced  5.6 Reduced
Middle reaches Longmen  5.17 Reduced  7.17 Reduced
Tongguan  5.58 Reduced  7.04 Reduced Fig. 2. M-K statistical value sequences for annual runoff at stations in different
Lower reaches Huayuankou  5.85 Reduced  6.8 Reduced reaches (a) Stations in the upper reaches (b) Stations in the middle reaches (c)
Lijin  6.23 Reduced  7.05 Reduced Stations in the lower reaches.
 H. Shi et al. / International Journal of Sediment Research 32 (2017) 171–179 175

Fig. 4. Identification of abrupt change points of annual runoff at the Huayuankou

station (a) Accumulated runoff with years (b) Annual runoff in different phases.

Fig. 3. M-K statistical value sequences for annual sediment load at stations in
different reaches (a) Stations in the upper reaches (b) Stations in the middle
reaches (c) Stations in the lower reaches.

test, the absolute M-K values of sediment load is larger than runoff
at the year of 2014. It seemed that the variation of sediment load
of the Yellow River responded more sensitive to the impact factors
than the runoff.

3.2. Leap test for representative stations

On the one hand, the annual sediment load variation trends at

each station on the Yellow River are nearly consistent with the
annual runoff variation trends; on the other hand, except for the
Tangnaihai station, not only the trends of annual runoff at other
stations are almost the same, but also the annual sediment load.
Therefore, it is feasible to choose representative hydrologic sta-
Fig. 5. Identification of abrupt change points of sediment load at the Tongguan
tions instead of each station to test the abrupt changes for the
station (a) Accumulated sediment load with years (b) Annual sediment load in
whole Yellow River. different phases.
The cumulative time sequence and the rank sum test were
adopted for the leap test on annual runoff and annual sediment
load. The Huayuankou station was selected as the representative Based on the curve of cumulative time sequence, it can be seen
station for runoff; and the Tongguan station as the representative from the accumulated runoff sequence during 1950–2014 (Fig. 4
station for sediment load. According to the cumulative time (a)) that the annual runoff at the Huayuankou station changed
sequence, the cumulative annual runoff curve at the Huayuankou abruptly with an obvious turning point in the year of 1986; and for
station and the cumulative annual sediment load at the Tongguan the sequence of 1950  1985, another turning point was clear in
station were plotted against time (Figs. 4 and 5). the year of 1969.
176 H. Shi et al. / International Journal of Sediment Research 32 (2017) 171–179

Table 4
Leap test for annual runoff at Huayuankou.

Period 1950–1968 1969–1985 1986–2014

Sample number 19 17 29
Statistical test value  2.39 (1969) /
Sample number 36 29
Statistical test value  5.27 (1986)

Table 5
Annual sediment load leap test at Tongguan.

Period 1952–1979 1980–1998 1999–2014

Sample number 28 19 16
Statistical test value /  4.60 (1999)
Sample number 28 35
Statistical test value  5.56 (1980)
Regarding the result of rank sum test (see Table 4), the test
values in the years of 1986 and 1969 were  5.27 and  2.39,
respectively, both passed the leap test (the absolute test value was
over the critical value of 1.96 when the significance α ¼ 0.05) and
shown an obvious leap.
The years of abrupt change could also be proved from com-
paring the annual runoff variation with the abrupt interval average
runoff chart (see Fig. 4(b)). The annual runoff dropped by 35%
around 1986; the average value dropped by 19% around 1969.
Similarly, the time process curve of cumulative annual sedi-
ment load at the Tongguan station was plotted. It is also obvious
that both the years of 1980 and 1999 were the abrupt change
points of sediment load variation in the 1950  2014 sequence and
the 1981  2014 sequence, respectively (see Fig. 5(a)).
The rank sum test was conducted and the results were given in
Table 5. From the table, it can be seen that both the years of 1980
and 1999 were leap points with the absolute test values (up to 5.56
and 4.60, respectively) beyond the critical value.
The interval average sediment load dropped up to 67% before
and after the leap points in 1980 and 45% around 1999. This result
could also be manifested by the mean values of annual sediment
load in the interval averages shown in Fig. 5(b).
4. Causes for variation of runoff and sediment load
The variations and the years of abrupt change in annual runoff
and annual sediment load sequences of the Yellow River were
caused by natural factors and human activities, such as the climate
change from precipitation and temperature, water diversion,
reservoir construction, soil and water conservancy, etc. Their
contributions to the changes of runoff and sediment load are quite
complicated.
According to correlation analysis of different factors those
could influence the variation of water and sediment of the Yellow
River, the climate change, water diversion, reservoir construction
had effects on the runoff variation; while the incoming runoff, the
precipitation intensity, and the soil-water conservation had more
effects on the sediment load variation.
Fig. 6. Correlation between annual precipitation and runoff controlled by the
Tangnaihai station.
4.1.1. Precipitation and temperature
In view of the Tangnaihai station located in the headwater
region, with less influence from human activities, it was selected
as the representative station for analysis of the natural factors,
especially the precipitation.
According to the correlation chart (see Fig. 6) drawn for the
annual precipitation and runoff (controlled by the Tangnaihai
station) collected from the year of 2000–2008, it is found that the
runoff depended well on the precipitation (the linear correlation
coefficient R2 was 0.82). It could be concluded that precipitation
had direct impact on runoff change of the Yellow River in the head
water region.
As the representative station for runoff, the relationship
between the precipitation and runoff controlled by the Huayuan-
kou station could be analyzed for the whole Yellow River basin.
From the comparison (Liu et al., 2009) of the changes of the annual
precipitation and the observed runoff controlled by the
Huayuankou station (see Fig. 7(a)), the precipitation reduction
rates was 4% from 1969–1985 to 1950–1968, and 5% from 1986–
2009 to 1969–1985.
Though the runoff decreases with the reduction of precipita-
tion, the range of precipitation reduction was lower than that of
the runoff. According to the linear correlation analysis between
the precipitation and runoff above the Huayuankou station (see
Fig. 7(b)), the coefficient R2 was only 0.44, less than that of the
Tannaihai station. This implied that, besides the precipitation,
there are some other factors affecting the runoff variation,
excluding the headwater region.
The impact of temperature variation should not be ignored
when the climate change effect is discussed. It is reported that,
since 1960, the mean annual temperature in the Yellow River basin
has increased about 1 °C (Ding & Pan, 2007; Huang & Zhou, 2012).
The evaporation has not increased with the temperature growth.
In contrary, in most of the region it shows a decline tendency
according to the research of the evaporating pan between 1960
and 2001 (Xu & He, 2005). Liu et al. (2009) considered that the
evaporation loss was mainly due to the increasing surface water
area by construction of new reservoirs and warping dams. It was
estimated that the evaporation loss caused by the construction of
water conservancy projects was about 1  109 m3/a, accounting for
2.6% of the runoff at the Huanyuankou station.
Although the above two views were inconsistent, but one could
still concluded that the temperatures is not the direct cause for the
reduction of the runoff of the Yellow River basin.

4.1. Factors affecting the variation of runoff 4.1.2. Water consumption

The prime reason for the reduction of runoff in the Yellow River
According to the above-mentioned trend analyses, the sequence over the past decades was the increase of water consumption by
of annual runoff of the Yellow River can be divided into three time humans (Liu et al., 2009). The amount of water abstraction was a
periods, including 1950–1968, 1969–1985 and 1986–2014. main cause for the point of dramatic change in 1968. At the same
 H. Shi et al. / International Journal of Sediment Research 32 (2017) 171–179 177

Fig. 7. Relationship between precipitation and runoff above the Huanyuankou

station (a) Annual precipitation comparing with annual runoff (b) Correlation Fig. 8. Relationship between water consumption and runoff at the Huayuankou
between precipitation and runoff. station (a) Annual water consumption comparing with annual runoff (b) Correla-
tion between water consumption and runoff.

time, the amount of water abstraction of the drainage basin has

become a primary reason for the change of runoff flux to the sea at
the Yellow River mouth (Ding & Pan, 2007).
A comparison between the change process of observed runoff
at Huayuankou and the change process of water consumption by
humans in the area upstream of Huayuankou is shown in Fig. 8(a).
As seen from the figure, the observed runoff at Huayuankou
decreased with time, while the water consumption in the area
upstream of Huayuankou increased. The correlation coefficient R2
between the water consumption and the runoff was 0.37 (in Fig. 8
(b)).

4.1.3. Reservoir construction and operation

A majority of the large- and middle-sized reservoirs were built
in the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River. Statistical
work was conducted regarding the completion years of the large-
scale reservoirs on the main stem and tributaries of the river in the
area upstream of Huayuankou. The changing curve of the reservoir
capacity in each year was plotted. Then by integrating the yearly
variation trend of runoff at Huayuankou, an analysis and jump
identification was conducted. In order to correspond to the trend
of the descending reduction of average annual runoff at the three
stages with the years of 1968 and 1986 as the points of abrupt
change, the coordinates for the cumulative reservoir capacity were
marked in an inverse order. Fig. 9. Relationship between accumulated reservoir capacity and mean annual
Judging from Fig. 9(a), there was a close correlation between runoff above the Huanyuankou station (a) Accumulated reservoir capacity com-
paring with annual runoff (b) Correlation between accumulated reservoir capacity
the construction of reservoirs in the middle and upper reaches of and mean annual runoff.
the Yellow River and the changes in runoff at the representative
stations. Actually, the Liujiaxia reservoir with a capacity of 4.2. Factors affecting the variation of sediment load
5.7  109 m3 and the Longyangxia reservoir with a capacities of
24.7  109 m3 were completed and put into operation in 1968 and Similar to the abrupt change of the runoff, the annual sediment
1986, respectively. The Longyangxia Reservoir boasts the largest
load was also divided into three periods, including 1952–1979,
capacity in all the reservoirs on the Yellow River.
1980–1998 and 1999–2014, according to the abrupt change of the
The years of the construction of the Liujiaxia reservoir and the
annual sediment load.
Longyangxia reservoir and its combined utilization were also
related to the years of the big change in runoff of the Yellow River.
The correlation coefficient R2 (see Fig. 9(b)) between the accu- 4.2.1. Runoff
mulated reservoir capacity and the mean annual runoff in different The incoming runoff definitely affects the sediment load of the
leap steps was as high as 0.93. river. Usually, an obvious exponential relation can be defined
178 H. Shi et al. / International Journal of Sediment Research 32 (2017) 171–179

between the sediment load and the annual runoff, which is Table 6
expressed as follows: Statistics of precipitation amount at the Hekou-Longmen region in the flood
season.
α
Q s ¼ kQ ð7Þ
Period July–August July–September
where Qs represents the annual sediment load; Q is the annual
runoff; k is the coefficient; and α is the power exponent. Precipitation Change Precipitation Change
(mm) (%) (mm) (%)
It can be seen from Fig. 10, the correlation coefficient R2
between sediment load and runoff at representative station 1950–1959 235 10 339 2.1
Tongguan was 0.52, which indicated that the sediment load was 1960–1969 221 3.5 361 8.6
well correlated with the runoff. The runoff was one of the influ- 1970–1979 226 5.6 342 3
1980–1989 185  13.7 323  2.9
ence factors affecting the variation of sediment load.
1990–1999 202  5.4 297  10.7
1950–1999 214 0 332 0
4.2.2. Precipitation intensity
As above-mentioned, the Hekou-Longmen region, located in
the middle reaches of the Yellow River, suffers from severe soil
erosion and therefore supplies most of the sediment, and espe- Table 7
cially the coarse sediment for the river. The change of sediment Comparison of the days in different levels of precipitation in flood seasons before
yield in this region has a direct bearing on the variation of annual and after 1980 for the Hekou-Longmen region.
sediment load of the whole basin. The Hekou-Longmen region is
Rainfall level (R(mm/24h)) June July Aug. Sep. Jun.–Sep.
also one of the three flood source regions of the whole river. On
the one hand, most of this region is prone to the water flow Slight (0.1r Ro 10) Before 7.4 9 8.3 7.3 32
generated from excessive rain – when the precipitation reaches a After 5.78 6.49 7.57 5.86 25.7
Rate  21.9  27.9  8.8  19.7  19.7
certain magnitude it forms effective rainfall, leading to surface
Moderate (10r Ro 25) Before 1.37 2.56 2.56 2.17 8.66
runoff; on the other hand, in the Hekou-Longmen region, the soil After 1.8 1.88 1.87 1.26 6.81
texture is loose, the ravines and gullies crisscross, and the vege- Rate 31.4  26.6  27.0  41.9  21.4
tation is sparse; the concentration of torrential rain is prone to Heavy (25 rR o50) Before 0.3 1.05 1.11 0.59 3.05
After 0.43 0.8 0.72 0.3 2.25
cause severe flood and soil erosion, with the sediment yield
Rate 43.3  23.8  35.1  49.2  26.2
increasing dramatically. Violent (R Z 50) Before 0.04 0.35 0.33 0.1 0.82
As seen from Tables 6 and 7, the precipitation amount at the After 0.07 0.15 0.14 0.02 0.38
Hekou-Longmen region in the flood season showed a trend of Rate 75.0  57.1  57.6  80.0  53.7
decrease. After 1980 the precipitation amount was lower than the
long-term annual average, of which the precipitation declined by
Fig. 11 (Liu et al., 2009; Wang & Fan, 2002). As seen from the figure,
13.7% in the main flood season of July and August. At the same
the construction of soil and water conservation projects in the
time, the duration of precipitation in the flood season shortened
Yellow River basin was undertaken on a large scale in the 1970s,
significantly. The days of light rain, moderate rain and heavy rain
leading to increasing improvement in the control of soil erosion
after 1980, had decreased by 19.7%, 21.4%, 26.2%, respectively,
after 1980. The annual amount of sediment reduction was
when compared to the years preceding 1980. In particular, the
0.46  109 t from 1980 to 1989, 0.53  109 t from 1990 to 1996, and
annul days of torrential rain decreased from 0.82 days to 0.38,
0.56  109 t from 1997 to 2006, which accounts for 12% of the
decreasing by 53.7%.
sediment amount of Tongguan for the same period. The correla-
tion coefficient R2 between the amount of sediment interrupted by
4.2.3. Soil and water conservation
soil conservation and the sediment load of the river was as high as
The reduction of sediment yield of the Yellow River is the result
0.84. It is deemed that, in the main source of sediment yield of the
of the comprehensive action of the soil and water conservation
middle reaches of the Yellow River, the commencement of com-
measures and water conservation project construction. prehensive control measures of soil erosion has reduced the
The main construction period for reservoirs on the main stem amount of soil erosion at the middle reaches after the 1980s, and
and tributaries of and branch in the middle reaches of the Yellow the capacity of ecological restoration for the basin has been
River took place before 1980, directly intercepting and reducing boosted.
the sediment pouring into the Yellow River. The reduction of
sediment entering into the Yellow River due to the soil and water
conservation projects in different periods in the area upstream of 5. Conclusions
Tongguan on the middle reaches of the Yellow River is shown in
Little water and much sediment as well as sourcing from dif-
ferent regions are the prominent features of the Yellow River. The
runoff mainly comes from the area of upper reaches (above
Lanzhou station), where the annual average runoff accounts for
83% of that at Huayuankou Station, the runoff representative sta-
tion of the Yellow River. The sediment load mainly comes from the
region of Hekou-Longmen reaches, where the sediment yield
accounts for 59% of that at Tongguan Station, the sediment load
representative station of the Yellow River.
Except for the Tangnaihai Station in the headwater region, the
M-K test values of annual runoff and annual sediment load at
other stations exceeded the test standard and shown obvious
Fig. 10. Correlation between the annual sediment load and runoff in main stem of downward trend. Overall, both the annual runoff and annual
the Yellow River. sediment load of the Yellow River were in downward trend.
 H. Shi et al. / International Journal of Sediment Research 32 (2017) 171–179
Fig. 11. Relationship between the sediment load of the middle reaches and the
amount of sediment reduced by soil conservation (a) Reduction of sediment due to
soil conservation (b). Correlation between annual sediment load and sediment
reduced by soil conservation.
Through the analysis of abrupt change points and leap test at
representative hydrologic stations on the whole Yellow River, the
primary downward abrupt of annual runoff occurred in 1986 and
the secondary abrupt in 1969 at the Huyuankou station; the pri-
mary downward abrupt of annual sediment load occurred in 1980
and the secondary abrupt in 1999 at the Tongguan station.
The change in the water and sediment in the Yellow River basin
was a result of the combined effects of climate change and human
activities. The precipitation had direct impact on runoff variation,
while the rainfall intensity had obvious impact on the sediment
yield. The human activities played a key role in abrupt reduction of
water and sediment in the whole river basin. The water con-
sumption by humans is the primary reason for the reduction of
runoff of the river. The completion of the Longyangxia reservoir
and its combined operation with the Liujiaxia reservoir exerted a
direct bearing on the abrupt change of annual runoff. In addition
to the reduction of runoff that lead to the decrease of sediment
load, the combined effect of soil erosion control measures in the
main sediment yield regions and the construction of sediment
retention dams played a leading role in the trend of sediment load
decrease and the years of abrupt change of the Yellow River.
Acknowledgements
The study is supported by the National Key Research and
Development Program of China (2016YFC0402407), the National
Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant no. 51309255), the
International Science & Technology Cooperation Program of China
179
(2014DFG72010), the Foundation of State Key Laboratory of
Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China
Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (2016TS07
and SE0145C122016) and the Technology Demonstration Projects
of Ministry of Water Resources (SF2016-10).
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