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RURAL BROADBAND

5G Is Not the Answer


For Rural Broadband
5G wireless, due to begin rolling out in 2020, will improve mobile broadband and
support the internet of things. It may even be suitable for fixed broadband in dense
urban areas. But it has neither the capacity nor the cost-effectiveness to address the
rural fixed broadband gap.

By Larry Thompson and Warren Vande Stadt / Vantage Point Solutions

M
uch has been written about the care, and buy and sell goods. E-commerce,
phenomenal speeds that fifth- social media, video communications and video
generation (5G) wireless networks streaming are taken for granted today. The IoT,
will support. Policymakers have speculated that smart-grid and smart-city applications, cloud
5G wireless will solve the rural broadband gap computing, distance learning and telemedicine
and make fiber to the home obsolete. are only in nascent stages of anticipated
In fact, though 5G may represent substantial exponential growth.
progress, particularly in the context of Many broadband drivers, including
mobile service, it is more evolutionary than distance learning, remote telemedicine, video
revolutionary. It is targeted primarily at, and conferencing and entertainment, involve the
is most effective in, densely populated areas. It delivery of video over the internet. Cisco believes
is also suitable for the very low-demand, very IP video traffic will account for 82 percent
occasional-use sensors and actuators that will of internet traffic by 2020. This is significant
proliferate with the forthcoming internet of because some network technologies are better
things (IoT). But because 5G depends on very suited than others for delivering continuous-
densely deployed small cells, it is highly unlikely bit-rate applications such as video. Networks
to replace 4G for coverage outside towns and
that dedicate capacity to each customer, as most
thus will not be a solution for the digital divide
landline copper and fiber technologies do, are
that affects those areas. Even within rural
better suited to deliver this type of traffic than
community centers, its requirement of “deep
networks that share capacity among many users,
fiber” renders it unlikely to be cost-effective for
such as wireless networks. Delivering video to
fixed broadband, and it potentially bottlenecks
a customer continuously for a two-hour movie
the service at the same time, compared with
fiber to the premises (FTTP). on a wireless network means that capacity is not
available during this time for another user.
THE FUTURE OF BROADBAND Broadband providers of all kinds continue to
DEMAND invest heavily in their networks to help ensure
The internet connects people and machines they are prepared to meet the customer demands
throughout the world and has changed the ways of the future. Tom Rutledge, chairman and
people communicate, educate, provide health CEO of Charter Communications, has said that

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the cable operator is “moving toward a
future where broadband speeds of up
Actual throughput capacity for wireless users
to 10 gigabits per second are possible.” is often only 15 percent of the peak data
Verizon now offers a 750 Mbps tier in
its Fios markets in New York City, New connection rate – although the peak rate is the
Jersey, Philadelphia and Boston. AT&T
offers gigabit services in many of its
speed that providers promote.
markets and plans to add many more,
and Comcast is offering a 2 Gbps service
in many of its markets. Google Fiber
offers 1 Gbps in several cities today. An access point cannot deliver modulation techniques will be usable
Nielsen’s Law, posited by Jakob peak speeds across its entire coverage by only a very few users in each cell,
Nielsen in 1998, states that broadband area, or cell. The quality of a radio very close to the access point.
bandwidth demand grows at a rate of channel, its spectral efficiency (bits Providers that use the sub-6 GHz
50 percent a year for high-end users. per second per hertz) and its data rate unlicensed bands to offer fixed
The broadband connection experience ability deteriorate rapidly with distance, broadband service today are painfully
over the years supports his theory. falling to half or less of peak at only 25 aware of this. Even with wider channel
Projecting current trends into the future percent of the distance to the cell edge. bandwidths available, they already
suggests that 1 Gbps connections will be This represents roughly only 6 percent struggle to support more than just a
commonly available before 2020. of the cell. few subscribers per access point, even at
Median broadband speed, which is To determine a cell’s overall today’s fixed broadband users’ demand
less than what is “commonly available,” practical capacity for broadband, and levels, because of the increasing use of
was 41 Mbps in September 2015, an thus to evaluate the real capability of video and the uncontrollable and rising
increase of 28 percent over the previous any proposed network that leverages noise floor in unlicensed spectra. This
year’s median speed of 32 Mbps. If the wireless technology, one must consider will only worsen as the use of Wi-Fi
growth rate continues at 28 percent the average of the experience among all for last-few-feet access by portable
annually, the median speed will be devices increases, and as “HetNets,”
users near and far. This is often only
100–150 Mbps in 2020, when 5G discussed later, emerge. With little or
15–25 percent of the theoretical peak
networks become available, and 1 Gbps no additional sub-6 GHz unlicensed
for a single user. When overheads are
at the 5G equipment’s end of life eight spectra becoming available, and
considered, the usable capacity will
years later. with SINR only worsening, attempts
typically be less than 75 percent of this
CAN 5G MEET BANDWIDTH value. It therefore is not unusual for to increase capacity with higher
DEMANDS? the actual throughput capacity to be modulation rates will only shorten cell
5G has been touted to provide speeds only roughly 15 percent of its peak data ranges further, as explained later.
100 times faster than 4G wireless – connection rate – although the latter is For all these reasons, sub-6 GHz
as high as 10 Gbps – with latency the speed that is usually promoted. unlicensed access points, even if they
approaching that of fiber. These attempt to use “5G-like” techniques,
speeds indeed sound fantastic! But THREE WAYS TO GET MORE whether standardized or proprietary,
this projection assumes unrealistic BROADBAND will struggle and likely fall further
conditions and overlooks the critical Physics limits the evolution of any behind in trying to meet tomorrow’s
fact that the capacity must be shared wireless technology to three methods: fixed broadband demands in all
among multiple users. increasing transmit power (or reducing but the most remote, sparsely used,
Wireless vendors often promote noise), adding spectrum and reducing short-haul applications. In addition,
their products by listing the fastest data the number of users per cell. systems that use any unlicensed
connection rates possible. However, Increasing transmit power or spectrum are susceptible to being
these are theoretical rates possible only reducing noise. Increasing signal seriously debilitated by competing
in a lab environment and only for a level or reducing noise, including systems, which can appear close by
single user located very close to an interference, enables better modulation without warning and without FCC
access point and able to utilize every techniques. FCC rules do not permit recourse. This renders them risky
one of the best-case, unimpaired radio signal levels (transmitter powers) to choices for delivery of any 5G-like
channel resources. This is completely increase, and noise will only get worse fixed broadband, especially if publicly
unrealistic for real-world dimensioning as more and more transmitters are funded. Any significant improvement
for capacity, and it overstates an access installed. Without improvement in the in wireless broadband performance,
point’s practical capacity by 500 ratio of signal to the sum of interference then, must be accomplished by adding
percent or more. plus noise (SINR), higher efficiency more spectrum in which interference

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RURAL BROADBAND
can be rigidly controlled or by reducing outdoor-to-outdoor or indoor-to-indoor Advanced forms of MIMO called
the number of users per cell. mobility, small cells will be suitable for multiser MIMO will use massive
Adding spectrum. There is fixed broadband only in dense, urban numbers of antennas at a site, which
not enough licensed spectrum in the environments, if at all. Even then, can form multiple individual beams
sub-6 GHz bands that traditional 4G practically, the cells will connect only to to separate users. This will permit
sites use today to facilitate larger channel outdoor customer premises equipment, using the same frequency at the same
bandwidths. Although some licensed not directly to indoor equipment. time to serve each user with capacity
spectrum has been added with the 600 Some carriers, such as Google Fiber, that approaches what an otherwise
MHz auction, it is only a tiny fraction are considering the use of unlicensed conventional site might support in
of what is required to support the 100x 60 GHz to provide a wireless gigabit total, and the beams will not interfere
improvement requirement for 5G. service. However, any provider much with one another. But again, the
The quantity of licensed or rigidly that utilizes this spectrum will be improvement in overall throughput
controlled shared spectrum for mobile challenged to overcome not only all the goes up only by small fractions of peak
broadband is slated to improve in the issues intrinsic to the spectrum but also theoretical rates.
next few years, however. As a result of all those that attend any unlicensed Another way to add spectrum is
its “Spectrum Frontiers” vote on July spectrum. through “heterogeneous network”
14, 2016, the FCC intends to release Within its tiny range, mmW configurations, or “HetNets,” which are
and repurpose for mobile broadband spectrum will have available channel being touted for 5G. Development is
18 GHz of so-called millimeter-wave widths on the order of 10 times as underway to permit multiple channels
(mmW) spectrum – very, very high wide as current traditional cellular among the same or even different
frequencies (6 GHz to 80 GHz) frequencies – which alone could frequency bands to be concatenated,
whose wavelengths are measured in result in up to a 10x improvement carrying additive portions of a user’s
millimeters rather than meters. But in access point capacity. But the data simultaneously. An example is a
these bands have always been available GSM Association touts 5G as having
standard in development called LTE-
for fixed broadband (some, such as potentially a 100x improvement over
License Assisted Access, which will
39 GHz and 80 GHz, only for point- 4G, targeting as much as 10 Gbps
concatenate the use of a conventional,
to-point), and to date, they have gone peak! How can this be possible?
licensed cellular LTE channel with
largely unused for this purpose, for Reusing a frequency in the same
LTE deployed on the 5 GHz unlicensed
good reason. place at the same time can give the
band for best-effort overflow, to the
The higher the frequency of radio appearance of more spectrum quantity.
extent the unlicensed channel may be
spectrum, the less propagation and In fact, this already is being done with
unimpaired and have capacity at the
penetration power it has. Frequencies the use of multiple input, multiple
moment. In the meantime, LTE-
this high can propagate only to very output (MIMO) air interfaces. But
short distances before decaying to spectrum reuse comes with diminishing Unlicensed, a similar but de facto
unusable levels. In addition, they are returns. industry standard developed largely
highly susceptible to fading because of MIMO can permit portions of a by Qualcomm and Verizon, has just
diffraction by rain and moisture and user’s data to be divided into parallel been approved by the FCC. T-Mobile
even absorption by oxygen molecules. streams between an access point and intends to implement it immediately
The result is that the usable, reliable the user, using the same frequency to aid in offloading its 4G network.
range of high frequencies – even on a at the same time. 2x2 MIMO (two Though useful for wireless carriers,
clear day – is measured in hundreds antennas each at the access point this standard will contribute to
of feet, not in miles. This, along with and the user equipment), which is overcrowding of the 5 GHz unlicensed
the fact that high frequencies do not commonplace today, can nearly double band used mostly today for Wi-Fi.
penetrate buildings or other obstacles, peak throughput speeds but increases Other standards in development
such as foliage, and must have an overall cell spectral efficiency only by will concatenate completely separate
unobstructed line-of-sight path, renders around 160 percent. So-called 4.5G technologies among bands. One example
them of little use for conventional LTE-Advanced will permit up to 8x8 is Licensed Wireless Access, which
macrocells. For all these reasons, they MIMO, with a nearly 4x corresponding would concatenate LTE on licensed
have not been considered usable to date increase in possible peak user spectra and Wi-Fi on unlicensed.
for fixed broadband. throughput compared with 2x2. But All these arrangements, of course,
As networks must be densified into in this case, with four times as many can provide more broadband simply by
smaller and smaller cells to increase antennas, receivers and transmitters, adding up the capacity of individual
capacity by the other means discussed the overall cell spectral efficiency, streams. However, they are only
below, however, mmW spectrum compared with 2x2, only barely attempts to render a preliminary,
will become of increasing use. Even doubles. Cellular carriers are just now 5G-like experience until frequency-
though this may be of great benefit to employing 4x4 MIMO. managed and standardized use of

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RURAL BROADBAND
mmW spectrum for true 5G can overlaps must be planned carefully to of around 15 percent, this falls to
be deployed. There are enormous minimize interference to neighboring around 1.5 Gbps of likely actual usable
complexities to interworking and cells so they can maintain capacity. throughput available per cell, shared
reconciling these dissimilar and Placing cells closer together requires among all users.
competing networks and standards, reducing signal power by lowering This bandwidth, even shared, might
which are anticipated to be pre-5G transmitter powers, lowering antenna seem like a lot compared with today’s
propositions. No one should stake elevations, and/or tilting antennas typical broadband speed of around
a long-term, publicly funded radically downward. Any of these 41 Mbps. But again, it is reasonable
commitment on them until after 2020, strategies forces the cells to be much to expect median wireline broadband
when mmW bands and devices that smaller, shrinking their capacity speed to approach 100–150 Mbps by
can handle them begin to become footprints correspondingly. 2020 and 1 Gbps by the 5G equipment
ubiquitously and globally standardized In a 5G network, the resulting end of life. In addition, wireline
and licensed, with channels auto- small cells indeed will need to be quite providers, particularly FTTP providers,
managed among users in the case of small. Moving cells closer together
typically do not have to limit monthly
shared-use spectrum and generally is especially difficult if a provider
usage to avoid oversubscribing their
available for genuine 5G. uses currently available sub-6 GHz
shared broadband resources.
Reducing the number of users spectrum that propagates too well for
Today, IP video drives wireless
per cell. The last means of increasing dense small-cell applications. Designs
that meet the 5G bandwidth targets providers to limit oversubscription
capacity for an entire system is by of shared broadband resources. IP
reducing the number of users per and accommodate future mmW ranges
have made their coverage areas typically video is critical for distance learning,
cell. This is accomplished by placing telemedicine, entertainment and
cells closer and closer together so the less than 1,000 feet in diameter – often
half of this – and placed antennas only other purposes. In days when bursty
same capacity once afforded to a large web-browsing traffic dominated the
coverage footprint of one cell utilizing about 20 feet off the ground, with
equipment deployed on streetlights internet, broadband capacity could be
a radio channel can be applied many
and utility poles. Some estimates put significantly oversubscribed. High-
times over with multiple, smaller cells
5G small-cell deployments at 10 times volume data streams (such as video),
in the same coverage footprint, all
the number of sites as their current 4G on the other hand, require constant bit
reusing that same channel.
macrocell counterparts. rates. This largely undermines or defeats
This is nothing new. Since first-
The hurdles to such a dense any ability to oversubscribe a resource
generation cellular networks, when
deployment include the vastly increased among active users.
cells were on 500-foot towers and
need for backhaul for so many cells so Increasingly, the only remaining
dozens of miles apart, cells have been
close together, particularly the dark basis for any oversubscription is the
placed lower and closer together to
fiber optic cable that most current likely percentage of active subscribers.
reuse available spectrum and increase
configuration designs require for Dimensioning system capacity based on
capacity. Today, 4G cells are typically
“fronthaul” (connections between base forecasts of the number of active users
no more than 100 feet off the ground,
stations and radio antennas). All these can be risky and easily lead to serious
except in sparsely populated rural areas,
sites will also need power. Both can be cell congestion if activity is heavier than
and they are placed every few blocks
exceedingly difficult to coordinate and normal.
in urban areas. 5G “small cells” are a
accomplish. Most of Vantage Point’s fixed
natural evolution of this cell-splitting In addition, user devices will have
technique. And the laws of physics will wireless clients have difficulty
to incorporate many bands and have oversubscribing access point capacity
indeed necessitate that they be small. vastly expanded MIMO capabilities.
One cannot improve a system’s by more than 5:1 today, and many have
This will require software-tunable,
overall capacity simply by moving had to resort to nondiscriminatory,
radio frequency (RF) components and
the same cells closer together and across-the-board measures to limit
antennas, which are just emerging
serving only customers within the cells’ video. This situation will only worsen
from labs, plus very capable device
close-in, high-throughput coverage as data demands, including but not
processors, none of which are expected
areas, however. Signal still propagates limited to IP video traffic, grow as
to be developed and generally available
from an access point to the edge of its until after 2020. projected by Cisco and others.
otherwise usable coverage, whether it If 1 Gbps is a reasonable household
is used or not. Attempts to place cells DOES 5G HAVE ENOUGH broadband service expectation within
closer together in this manner will CAPACITY? the 5G equipment’s service life,
raise the noise floor significantly for Let’s assume that 5G will one day be then the maximum 5G small-cell
neighboring cells and reduce the overall able to achieve its goal of 10 Gbps throughput expectation of about 1.5
efficiency of the multicell system as a peak data rate per small cell. Applying Gbps will be a mediocre, if not very
whole. Intersite distance and coverage the practical cell throughput factor poor, solution for tomorrow’s fixed

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Figure 1 – Spectrum vs. Range (Permitted power per FCC service rules assumed per band)
This figure is intended only to suggest relative ranges and coverage areas among various single-carrier frequencies at a common received signal
level (RSL) and noise floor throughout the coverage area, which may be above or below the lowest RSL at which a particular technology can
operate, assuming sufficient SINR. Actual range will vary depending upon the actual signal level and quality targeted as well as numerous other
factors, including power level transmitted, elevation of transmitter and receiver antennas, directionality, gain and MIMO configuration of both the
transmitting and receiving antennas, terrain, clutter, manmade interference, and atmospheric and electromagnetic conditions, among others.

broadband, with very poor median- rural environments. Assuming a typical a complement to fiber or as part of a
to-advertised speed performance. 500-foot coverage radius for small cells, diverse network deployment strategy
If subscribers’ online versus offline this amounts to approximately 0.03 that leverages both fiber and wireless
behavior of tomorrow mirrors today’s, square miles of coverage for each. technologies to drive broadband deeper
and if an oversubscription rate of 5:1 In rural America, where the digital into rural areas. For mobile services in
can be maintained for 100–150 Mbps divide is most common today and particular, 5G promises a significant
median service in 2020, then it would requires the most effort to overcome, evolution. But to deliver the high
appear that a best-case 5G small cell 5G wireless will not be widely viable speeds and high capacity that many
may be able to serve 10–15 households. except possibly in densely populated hope for, 5G requires a deep fiber
However, if just two users are active towns. There may be cases in which network very similar to FTTP. When
with a video or another constant-bit- the cost of updating a macro site and one puts fiber so deep into a network,
rate application requiring 1 Gbps, customer premises equipment with why stop at the small cell rather than at
the small cell is already in danger of sophisticated, multiband 4.5G LTE the premises a few hundred feet away?
serious congestion and/or will require electronics and antennas to serve a few Fiber to the premises allows much
throughput limiting. households over a large geography is higher speeds and availability without
less than the cost of deploying fiber the same kinds of capacity limitations.
5G IN RURAL AREAS to those households. However, 5G
The extreme densification and short- small cells for any sort of “wireless to ASSESSING THE ECONOMICS
haul small-cell ranges necessary to the home” deployment offer limited Wireless carriers are already
achieve 5G generally will make it promise, at best, as a widespread minimizing the wireless portion of
usable only in dense urban scenarios. solution to rural broadband challenges. their networks by placing towers closer
Figure 1 depicts the real-world 5G will still have an important and closer to customers. Future 5G
geographic limitations for small cells in role in discrete cases or applications as wireless networks will probably use

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RURAL BROADBAND
wireless only in the last 300–500 feet. trees or other buildings. Because of careful alignment and can become
That is the scenario we consider here this, wireless electronics are often more misaligned during a windstorm.
and compare with fiber to the premises. expensive than FTTP electronics. Tree • Power: A 5G wireless solution
The cost of central office electronics cover and other factors can dramatically requires commercial power at every
for a 4G network has historically been increase the cost of 5G electronics cell site. If each cell site serves, on
considerably more than the central office installation at a customer location. average, 10 locations, there would
costs associated with an FTTP network. The cost for materials and labor to be 2,000 cell sites in a town with
As the costs for 5G core network install a fiber drop is typically $5 per 20,000 locations. Each will incur the
electronics are still not well defined, foot (for buried or aerial). As the average initial cost of installing commercial
these costs have not been considered, fiber drop length in a town environment power and will also have a monthly
but they could significantly increase is 160 feet, the cost is typically $800 per recurring cost. The FTTP network
the cost estimates for the 5G wireless customer. Therefore, the cost to install is completely passive between the
network below – as could the cost of fiber drops to all eight to 12 customers central office and the customer
new spectrum, also not considered. on a city block ranges from $6,000 to premises and requires no power.
Town capex considerations. $10,000. A small tower and 5G cell • Replacement cost: A 5G wireless
For rural town deployments, a 5G site costs $30,000–$50,000. The cell local loop uses electronics that
cell could be placed on a small tower site will also require commercial power normally depreciate over seven years.
or pole such that eight to 12 homes and batteries if the wireless network is The FTTP local loop uses fiber optic
would be reachable within 300–500 expected to work during a power outage. cable that depreciates over 20–30
feet. This pole could be a light pole or Rural capex considerations. years. Even with higher loop costs
other structure in an alleyway or on Outside towns, customer density is for the 5G wireless network, the
the street. In a 5G wireless network, measured per square mile, not per city wireless loop will likely need to be
this cell is served by fiber from a central block. For a 5G wireless network with replaced three times during the life
office or cabinet. This architecture a wireless drop length of only 500 feet, of the FTTP loop, which will raise
is not unlike an FTTP network, in each customer will need a dedicated the cost even more.
which the last pedestal is connected cell site. Therefore, the cost for the
tower and electronics cannot be spread As the 5G wireless network is more
by fiber back to the central office (or
across eight to 12 customers as in the expensive for the initial capex as well
cabinet) and may also serve eight to
town example. The cell site will cost as opex and provides 1 percent of the
12 customers. The primary difference
$30,000–$50,000 per customer. The broadband speed and capacity available
is the drop, or last connection into the
fiber drop in a rural environment is also on an FTTP network, it is unlikely to
customer premises. For a 5G network,
longer (it may be 500 feet on average). be a good investment if used only for
the drop is an RF signal from the pole,
A 500-foot drop that costs $5 per foot fixed broadband services. There may be
and for an FTTP network, it is a fiber
to install could cost $2,500. Even some select scenarios for which it makes
optic cable from the last pedestal.
though this drop cost is more than in economic sense, but one would expect
The cost to construct fiber from a
a town environment, it is obviously far those scenarios to be limited.
central office to a pole for a 5G cell is
less than the cost to install a 5G cell So the conclusion initially drawn
similar to the cost of constructing fiber
site to serve a single customer. in Vantage Point’s March 2015 paper
from a central office to the last pedestal
Opex considerations. Apart from on 4G still holds: “Wireless networks
in an FTTP network. The differences
the initial capital expense advantage are needed for low-bit-rate mobile
in cost are primarily in the last
that FTTP appears to have, it likely applications, such as voice, email
300–500 feet (the drop). In addition,
also has operational expense savings. and small-screen video. In contrast,
the customer premises also requires
wireline networks are required to meet
electronics to convert the fiber signal or • Customer premises electronics:
customers’ high-speed, fixed broadband
RF signal to an Ethernet connection. Although FTTP and the 5G
needs. For most customers, wireless
The cost for FTTP electronics, networks both have electronics and a
technologies will not be a replacement
battery backup, grounding and battery at the customer premises, the
for, but rather a complement to,
installation is commonly $760. A FTTP electronics likely have a longer
wireline broadband technologies.” v
wireless network also requires a battery useful life because their broadband
backup as well as electronics and capability is more than 100 times
grounding at the customer premises. greater than the 5G electronics. Larry Thompson is CEO and Warren
The wireless electronics converts the • Equipment maintenance: The Vande Stadt is senior technology leader
RF to Ethernet or Wi-Fi. Because wireless network requires an external of Vantage Point Solutions, a broadband
the higher frequencies used for 5G antenna that could be obstructed engineering and consulting company
networks do not penetrate obstacles, a by the growth of a tree or other based in South Dakota. Contact Larry at
pole may need to be installed to avoid new structure or that requires larry.thompson@vantagepnt.com.

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