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Deriving rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationships and

estimates for regions with inadequate data

Article  in  Hydrological Sciences Journal/Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques · September 1982

DOI: 10.1080/02626668209491115

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 Hydrological Sciences - Journal - des Sciences Hydrologiques, 27, 3,9/1982

Deriving rainfall intensity-duration-frequency

relationships and estimates for regions with
inadequate data

LEKAN OYEBANDE
Department of Geography, University of Lagos,
Lagos, Nigeria
ABSTRACT Type 1 extreme-value distribution (Gumbel)
was applied to the annual extreme rainfall data sets
generated by 11 rainfall zones to estimate the parameters
and hence the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) rainfall.
The chi-square test confirmed the appropriateness of the
fitted distribution. Gumbel graphical plots and the
computed confidence limits also showed that the Gumbel
EV-1 function fits well the empirical distribution.

Méthode en vue d'obtenir les relations et les estimations

de 1'intensitê-durêe-fréquence de la pluie pour les
régions sans données suffisantes
RESUME La distribution des valeurs extrêmes (Gumbel) du
type 1 a été appliquée aux séries de données de la pluies
maximales annuelles relevées dans 11 zones pluvieuses en
vue de déterminer les paramètres et partant l'intensité-
durée-fréquence de la pluie. Le test chi-square (X2) a
montré que la distribution choisie est valable. Les
graphiques de Gumbel et les calculs d'intervalle de
confiance ont montré également que la fonction EV-1 de
Gumbel correspond bien à la distribution empirique.

THE DATA PROBLEM

In an earlier study (Oyebande, 1980) which employed an empirical
approach it was observed that for about 60% of the stations for
which short-duration rainfall records were available, reliable
intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) estimates could be obtained for
a return period of up to about lO years only. It is well known
that a small sample may define a frequency distribution which
differs greatly from the population frequency distribution. Thus,
it is often emphasized that at least 25-30 years of records are
needed to obtain estimates of some practical value for both short
and longer durations.
The frequency distribution of the 35 stations used in the above
study is shown in Table 1. Records of only 18 stations exceed
20 years in length and of those only three are longer than 25 years.
Thus, more than 90% of the available records cannot be used with
confidence to obtain IDF estimates for return periods of up to
50 years or more.
However, such estimates are often required for estimation of
design floods for engineering purposes, especially from inadequately
gauged or ungauged basins. Bell (1969) opined that short-duration
353
354 Lekan Oyebande

Table 1 Distribution of recording stations

Record length (years) No. of stations

5-10 8
11-15 8
16-20 11
21-25 15
26-30 3

35

rainfalls of less than 2 or 3 h are of special importance in flood

estimation and that for engineering purposes it is generally
necessary to estimate values with return periods of at least
50 years. To make matters worse, the distribution and coverage over
the country of the stations is also inadequate. Eighteen stations
have at least 20 years of record, giving a density of one station
to more than 50 000 km . In order to overcome the two-fold problem
of inadequate record length and coverage, regional analysis is used
in which data for individual stations are lumped together or
compounded to yield larger regional data samples. The present paper
thus has two objectives. The first is to define detailed regions,
or rather zones according to certain criteria. The other is to use
the longer records generated for the zones to obtain IDF relation-
ships and estimates which can be applied to the respective zones
with greater confidence. This second step involves fitting a double
exponential function to the zonal data sets.

RAINFALL ZONES
A map of Nigeria showing four principal rainfall regions with two
sub-regions was produced by Oyebande (1980). A further study of the
IDF regime, however, indicated further differentiation into zones.
The map proposed in the present study defines 10 principal rainfall
zones with sub-zones (Fig.l). The zones were designated according
to the following climatic and topographic characteristics.
(a) Rainfall IDF regime characterized by three indices namely,
the ratio of: the 10-year 10-min fall to that of the 10-year
30-min fall (A); 2-year 15-min fall to 2-year 60-min fall (B); and
25-year 1-h fall to 25-year 24-h fall (C).
(b) Topographical characteristic as expressed by the altitude of
the station, in metres above the mean sea level.
(c) The average rainfall pattern or regime at the station as
characterized by mean annual rainfall and mean number of rainy days
per year.
Table 1 shows the range of the criteria variables used for
delimiting the zones while the location and extent of each zone is
shown in Fig.l. There are no recording raingauges in zone V, the
hilly eastern area adjacent to the border with the Cameroun
Republic. To delineate this region, it was assumed that the dominant
geographic factor is of orographic origin. This orographic
 Rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationships 355

Fig. 1 Rainfall zones of Nigeria.

influence is also reflected in the high annual rainfall experienced

in the zone (Table 2 ) .
The length of records in station years varies from 20 to 115,
with six zones having at least 45 years and only two having less
than 30 years. The substantial increase in the length of records
strengthens the case for applying mathematical curve fitting which
one might not be willing to apply to individual stations.
However, as Table 3 indicates, all the data sets for each zone
come from relatively short periods between 1948 and 1978. It was
found necessary to test their long term representativeness. This
was accomplished by the use of variance heteorogeneity test devised
by Hartley (1950). The method is rather simple and convenient but
requires a special probability table showing percentile values of
"largest F ratio", F m a x = S m a x / S m ^ n in a set of k mean squares each
based on n degrees of freedom. The null hypothesis tested is
2 2 2 2
Hg : rjj_ = 0"2 = ... O, = 0 , vs E-, : the four variances are not equal.
Annual maximum observation-day rainfall series were used and
representative stations with long-period records (1915-1976) were
selected, one from each zone. The long period of 62 years was
divided into four sub-periods according to information available
from studies of fluctuations in annual rainfall values and trends in
rainfall regime for different parts of the country (Obasi et al.,
356 Lekan Oyebande

Table 2 Characteristics of rainfall zones

Zone A B C Altitude Annual mean Annual mean

(%) (%) (%) (m) rainfall (mm) no. of raindays

1 41-46 47-49 43-49 80 2150 170

II 50-54 50-55 50-65 80 1550-2900 125-190
III 52-54 56-57 52-57 225-305 1217-1600 106-151
IVa 48-49 54-55 54-60 113-307 1224-1800 94-109
IVb 50-51 52-54 54-57 150-190 900-1150 75-90
V — — — 460-2409 1400-3670 _
VI 40-44 50-52 50-52 63-260 1190-1320 89-101
Vila 59-67 59-67 53-66 119-351 710-1070 58-85
Vllb 59-63 63-67 56-61 645-1285 1281-1400 108-126
VIM 46-48 50-56 56-66 460-750 840-1085 50-82
IX 45-53 58-59 74-83 350-415 651-776 62-64
X 65-69 52-73 68-72 325-520 525-600 49-61

A = 100 X (10-year, 10-min. fall/10-year 30-min. fall);

B = 100 X (2-year, 15-min. fall/2-year 60-min. fall);
C = 100 X (25-year, 1-h fall/25-year 24-h fall).

1980; Okulaja, 1980). According to these studies, after 1918 there

were progressively persistent or drier dry seasons which culminated
in the general drought of 1946. Then there was a return to average
wet conditions from 1952 till 1971, the year the sahelian drought
(1971-1973) began. However, the only significant cyles revealed by

Table 3 Derived zonal rainfall records

Zone Station names No. of Length of period Period

stations (station years)

I Port, Harcourt, Calabar,

Umudike 3 45 1951-78
II Warri, Lagos, Ikeja, Oshodi,
Benin, Aero & NI FOR 6 115 1948-78
III Oshogbo, Ondo, Nora,
Ibadan 4 51 1956-75
IVa Enugu, llorin, Bida, Makurdi 4 82 1956-78
IVb lbi,Yola 2 22 1956-73
V
VI Lokoja, Minna 2 34 1956-75
Vila Mokwa, Yelwa, Sokoto 3 35 1956-76
Vllb Kaduna, Jos Aero, Lamingo 3 60 1952-78
VIII Bauchi, Zaria, Kano, Gusau,
Samaru 61 1951-75
IX Potiskum, Maiduguri, Aero
& Water Works 38 1956-74
X Nguru, Katsina 20 1960-75

35
 Rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationships 357

the method of spectral analysis employed for Nigeria as a whole was

one of 2-3 years. It would have sufficed to test 1947-1978 against
the earlier period(s), but each of the two periods was further
divided into two for a more detailed test. The results of the
analysis are shown in Table 4. The null hypothesis which assumes
homoscedasticity is acceptable for all the zones except zones IVb
and VIlb. However, in each case it was the earliest period
(1915-1930) that was associated with significantly low variance.
These departures were checked by a more robust test by Bartlett.
B = 7.33 for Jos and 13.31 for Yola. Since Xo 95 = 7.81 for three
degrees of freedom, we conclude that the variances for Jos are equal.
The same conclusion cannot be reached for Yola since Xo.99 = H - 3
for three degrees of freedom. It is strongly suspected however that
there was a shift in the gauge location to a significantly different
site after 1930 or thereabout, and that the shift accounted for the
significant difference, rather than climatic change.

Table 4 Results of variance homogeneity test on annual series of observation-day maximum rainfall

Zone Station 1915- -1930: 1931- -1946: 1947- -1959: 1960- -1976: F*
X s2 N X s2 N X s2 N X s2 N

1 Calabar 4.74 0.82 15 5.08 0.86 16 4.98 1.25 13 4.32 1.28 15 1.561
II Lagos 4,63 3.31 16 5.25 2.49 15 4.55 2.37 13 5.35 3.50 17 1.477
III Ondo 3.34 1.72 16 3.30 0.98 16 3.24 0.93 13 3.15 1.07 17 1.849
IVa Offa 2.60 0.86 15 2.91 2.07 16 3.30 2.10 13 3.62 0.95 17 3.38
IVb Yola 2.33 0.12 14 2.99 0.47 16 2.83 0.87 13 2.91 096 15 8.00*
V
VI Minna 3.14 1.01 13 2.96 0.86 16 3.04 0.80 13 3.54 1.32 17 1.65
Vila Sokoto 2.47 0.66 14 2.38 0.39 16 2.99 1.18 12 2.27 0.80 17 3.02
VI lb Jos 2.69 0.15 9 2.78 0,75 16 2.64 1.02 13 2.71 0.51 17 6.80»
VIII Kano 2.80 0.53 15 2.72 0.36 16 3.11 1.38 13 2.40 0.50 16 3.83
IX Wladuguri 2.38 0.43 14 2.46 0.76 15 2.81 0.96 13 2.62 0.81 17 2.23
X Hadejia 2.10 0.43 13 2.70 0.98 16 2.61 0.70 13 2.67 0.83 12 1.93

*Fmax significant at a = 0.01 :

for or = 0.05, k = 4 and n (= N — 1 ) = 16, the critical region is F m a x > 3.80;
for a = 0.01, k = 4 and n = 16, the critical region is F m a x > 5.20;
fora = 0.05, k = 4 and n = 15, the critical region is F m a x > 4.01.

REGIONAL ANALYSIS
A number of investigators such as Bell (1969) , Natural Environment
Research Council (1975) and Baghirathan & Shaw (1978) have found the
regional analysis useful. The scheme assumes that the annual
maximum rainfall events are independent in time and space. It also
assumes that a sample of falls in a region or zone is sufficiently
varied to represent the population of a long period. The present
knowledge of the storm characteristics in Nigeria indicates that
the convective showers which account for most of the intense falls
are highly localized not only in the northern - zones, but also in the
coastal region which is under the monsoonal influence during much
of the year. The spread of the rainfall stations together with the
effects of localization should ensure that the assumption of
independence is satisfied.
The second assumption, however, is not so easily verified, and
358 Lekan Oyebande

implies that the exact value of the effective length of the

compounded data sets remains unknown. Nevertheless, it is important
to provide estimates of the effective length of the single regional
sample generated to enable one to obtain a measure of the
reliability of the IDF estimates obtained from the samples. Table 3
(column 4) shows the nN observations derived from n-point records,
where N is the average length of each point record. nN will be the
effective length of the regional data sample if the n data points
are mutually uncorrelated. However, if they are mutually correlated,
as is likely, the pooling together of n sets of N observations
can be expected to yield only as much information as n e N , where
n_ < n. The term n e is called effective number of points (stations)
in the region or zone.
Yevjevich (1972, p . 245) has shown that

n e = n/(l + r) (n - 1) (1)

where

r = 2E. . £. .,_ r-j/n(n - 1) (2)

3=1 1=3+1 13
and where r. • is the product-moment correlation between variables of
stations i and j . Table 5 shows the average interstation

Table 5 Estimates of effective record length by regions

Region nN 0.2-h Duration: 1-h Duration: 24-h Duration:

r neN 100neN/nl\l r neN 100n e N/nN r neN 100nel\l/nN

I 45 0.471 23 51 0.380 26 57 0.171 33 74

II* 115 0.26 50 43 0.229 54 47 0.229 54 47
III 51 0.233 30 59 0.211 31 65 0.205 32 62
lVa 82 0.220 49 60 0.205 51 62 0.158 56 68
IVb 22 0.150 19 87 0.150 19 87 0.145 19 87
VI 34 0.366 25 74 0.138 30 88 0.138 30 88
Vila* 35 0.348 21 59 0.294 22 62 0.294 22 62
Vllb 60 0.363 35 58 0.327 37 62 0.123 48 80
VIM* 61 0.196 34 56 0.196 34 56 0.190 34 56
IX 38 0.280 24 64 0.280 24 64 0.255 25 66
X 20 0.40 14 71 0.40 14 71 0.33 15 75

'Concurrent series are quite short in certain cases and tend to yield rather high correlation coefficients.

correlation r, and the estimates of the effective length of the

regional sample n e N as well as the percentage of the gross length
that the latter represents.
The above steps used to estimate n e N were next applied to annual
series of maximum observation-day rainfall which yield much longer
regional totals ranging from 86 to 270 observations. Both
applications show that the effective length of record obtained by
pooling together n-point records exceeds 60% of nN for at least
eight of the regions for durations equal to or exceeding 1 h
(Table 6) .
In addition to the substantial increase in record length, the IDF
determinations from a regional sample for several stations are more
reliable than those calculated from one of the stations because the
 Rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationships 359

Table 6 Estimates of effective length of observation-day annual maximum rainfall

Region Stations Period nN r neN 100neN/nN

1 Aba, Calabar, Forcados

Ikot Ekpene, Owerri,
Umudike 1932-66 210 0.166 115 55
II Benin, Ebute Metta,
lju, Kwale, Lagos Warri 1931-75 270 0.147 155 57
III Abeokuta, Agbor, Ibadan,
Ondo, Oyo 1931-71 205 0.105 144 70
IVa Ado Ekiti, Enugu, Keffi,

CO
CD
Makurdi, Ogoja, Okene 1935-65 0.128 113 61
IVb Ibi, Yola 1916-31 77

CO
0.116 90

CD
VI Lokoja, Minna 1918-77 120 0.055 114 95
Vila Birnin Kebbi, Kotangora,
Sokoto, Zuru 1926-71 184 0.081 148 80
Vllb Kaduna, Kafanchan, Jos,
Pankshin, Wamba 1939-68 150 0.179 87 58
VIII Azare, Bauchi, Hadejia,
Kafinsoli, Kano Samaru 1941-68 135 0.158 91 67
IX Biu, Maiduguri, Potiskum 1940-74 105 0.311 65 62
X Daura, Katsina, IMguru 1947-75 87 0.091 74 85

spottiness of intense falls implies that some falls will be recorded

at some stations and not at others during some years.

Fitting Gumbel EV-1 distribution

A double exponential distribution was fitted to the annual maximum
series to obtain IDF relationships and estimates. The distribution
also known as the Fisher-Tippet distribution was introduced for
extreme values by R.A.Fisher & L.H.C.Tippet. It is, however,
widely known in hydrology as Gumbel Extreme Value Type 1 (EV-1
distribution) for it was Gumbel (1941) who proposed its use for
annual floods. In its cumulative form (which is mathematically
simpler than the f(x) form), Gumbel EV-1 is defined as

F(x) = exp {-exp[-a(x - g)]} (3)

where a, 3 are the scale and location parameters respectively.

Equation (1) can be written in terms of a reduced variate

y = a(x - B) (4)

to obtain

F(x) = exp [-exp (-y)] (5)

and, s i n c e F(x) = 1 - (1/T ) , i t can be shown t h a t

360 Lekan Oyebande

y = - In (In T r / T r - 1) (6)

where T is the return period in years. However, for estimating y

when T = 1, equation (6) breaks down, so that the following
approximation by Schulz (1973, p. 424)

y = In T r - l/2Tr - 1/24T* - 1/8T^ (7)

gave more satisfactory values of y for T = 1 and was used instead

of (6) .
The estimates of a and 3 could be obtained by the method of
moments, but as Yevjevich (1972, p. 180) has shown, the use of the
method of moments for the estimation of parameters of extremely
skewed distributions may represent a significant loss of valuable
hydrological information. The Gumbel EV-1 is sufficiently skewed to
warrant the use of the maximum likelihood method to obtain the final
estimates of a and B. The initial estimates provided by the method
of moments are

1/a = 0.779697 s and 8 = x - 0.577216/â (8)

where s and x are sample standard deviation and mean respectively.

Then using the initial estimates the final estimates were obtained
by iterative computations by the maximum likelihood method until the
corrections become negligible. The values of a and 3 for each zone
and duration are shown in Table 7. The IDF estimates, x, were then

Table 7 Estimates of parameters of equation x = j3 + (1/â)y for zones

Zone 0.2 h 0.4 h 1h 3h 6h 12 h 24 h

I 23.52 19.19 12.10 6.63 3.74 1.87 0.98

118.94 97.43 60.13 26.25 14.48 7.63 4.03
II 24.83 20.97 14.36 6.29 3.88 2.16 1.26
113.16 85.74 55.06 23.58 13.30 7.03 3.81
III 19.57 14.99 11.32 5.59 2.94 1.49 0.85
108.78 78.59 43.63 17.43 9.55 4.85 2.61
IVa 21.42 16.24 12.65 4.69 3.04 1.57 0.89
111.83 83.38 49.13 20.03 10.56 5.61 2.83
IVb 20.15 15.87 12.70 6.30 3.56 1.84 0.92
108.40 78.66 46.29 18.02 10.28 5.20 2.64
VI 32.95 21.76 13.49 6.03 3.13 2.26 0.57
115.60 81.22 47.27 19.80 10.61 5.14 2.81
Vila 19.40 15.62 9.21 3.52 1.60 0.88 0.39
99.99 67.07 36.25 14.21 7.53 3.99 2.05
Vllb 23.28 17.95 9.83 3.87 3.13 1.14 0.68
99.96 72.72 39.78 15.72 8.57 4.49 2.41
VIII 18.04 14.64 10.87 4.76 2.70 1.53 0.78
95.65 69.79 40.67 15.92 8.46 4.47 2.28
IX 25.43 21.92 11.53 4.59 2.74 1.43 0.76
98.23 73.30 40.32 15.85 8.65 4.39 2.23
X 21.53 17.65 9.35 3.86 2.09 1.08 0.57
103.66 69.82 35.75 12.78 6.73 3.43 1.76

The first row in each zone contains the value of a; the second row in each zone contains
the value of /3.
 Rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationships 361

obtained by the relationship in equation (4). The standard error

(SE) of estimate was calculated using the formula derived by the
Natural Environment Research Council (1975) as

SE(x(Tr)) = (a2/N) (1.11 + 0.52y + Côly 2 )* 5 (9)

where x(T r ) is the estimate with T-year return period and y is the
reduced variate corresponding to T r - 1/a2 is substituted for a 2 .
The IDF estimates, x, are not shown, but can be obtained by
substituting the values of the statistics B and 1/ct (Table 7) in
the equation x = 0 + (1/oOy, where y is given by equation (6). The
value of the associated standard error can then be calculated as
twice SE(x(Tr)) in equation (9).
A computer programme was written to perform the above and
subsequent functions including the chi-square test of goodness of
fit given by

X 2 = E * = 1 (0± - Ei)2/Ei

where k is the number of class intervals, 0j_ is observed frequency

and E^ the expected frequency in the class interval. Much emphasis
was placed on the design and procedure of the test for it was
considered important to ascertain, as much as possible, the
appropriateness of the Gumbel EV-1 for fitting the annual maximum
series. Gumbel (1943) has shown that the chi-square test would
almost certainly give contradictory results which could make it
impossible to draw a conclusion about acceptance or rejection of a
hypothesis when arbitrary startingpoints and lengths of intervals
are used. Gumbel and Yevjevich (1972, pp. 224-228) suggest the
choice of class intervals or cells such that all have equal
probabilities p^ = 1/k or equal absolute frequencies, N j_, in order
to overcome much of the arbitrariness that accompanies the
construction of class intervals. Five class intervals were used in
the study for all the zones except zones II and IVa for which
10 class intervals were used because N > 80. The computed
probability was then used to compute the reduced variate y from
equation (5) and equation (4) was then used to determine the class
intervals in terms of extreme rainfall series, x.
The level of significance was obtained from tabulated values of
the chi-square distribution corresponding to k - h - 1 degrees of
freedom, where h is the number of parameters in the Gumbel EV-1
function and represents additional constraints, so that the degree of
freedom in this case is k - 3. It is either 2 or 7 depending on
whether five or ten intervals were used.
The EV-1 distribution was also applied to the data for
representative stations for each zone. The derived parameters 1/a
and (3 are shown in Table 8. A close comparison of Tables 7 and 8
reveals a number of interesting features, including the station to
station variation with the same zone and how the regional approach
smooths out the variations.
362 Lekan Oyebande

Table8 Estimates of parameters of the equation x = |3 + (1/â)y for individual stations

Station Zone 0.2 h 0.4 h 1h 3h 6h 12 h 24 h

Port Harcourt* I 26.43 15.22 14.00 6.45 3.70 1.61 0.85

121.03 100.13 61.35 27.31 15.53 8.10 4.29
Warri* II 29.33 22.65 14.57 4.85 3.44 1.68 1.04
120.78 92.47 59.91 27.53 15.06 7.90 4.52
Lagos* II 23.55 22.17 16.66 6.82 3.93 1.97 1.11
105.69 80.18 55.97 25.06 15.03 8.04 4.12
Ikeja* II 23.32 18.35 10.99 4.69 2.94 1.62 1.00
109.99 86.64 53.59 22.27 12.24 6.63 3.58
Oshogbo III 26.47 12.89 7.51 5.27 2.73 1.25 0.76
109.59 81.64 44.60 18.55 10.25 4.90 2.62
Enugu* IVa 17.95 14.52 13.30 4.20 2.36 1.21 0.62
121.05 92.27 53.34 22.00 11.85 6.12 3.26
Wlakurdi IVa 27.13 20.54 11.61 4.54 2.57 1.39 0.73
113.81 86.25 50.08 20.38 11.35 5.88 2.97
llorin* IVa 18.85 12.19 10.30 3.73 3.15 1.56 0.95
105.81 80.68 39.74 18.25 8.75 4.93 2.38
Yola IVb 16.89 13.12 12.91 6.27 3.58 1.85 0.94
102.12 73.83 44.53 16.96 9.69 4.90 2.49
Lokoja VI 20.54 19.23 10.58 4.90 2.46 1.38 0.68
101.17 82.31 47.22 18.95 9.93 4.92 2.57
Sokoto Vila 14.89 12.80 7.74 3.05 1.33 0.85 0.39
90.11 60.26 32.92 12.75 6.80 3.76 2.00
Jos Aero* Vllb 23.63 18.92 9.66 3.14 1.84 1.04 0.63
101.64 70.32 39.41 14.85 7.98 4.21 2.28
Kaduna* Vllb 19.82 15.04 10.00 4.50 2.34 1.24 0.72
99.79 73.17 39.95 16.25 9.04 4.67 2.43
Kano VIII 16.61 17.05 14.13 6.05 3.41 1.78 0.92
90.64 66.62 39.87 15.37 8.12 4.13 2.11
Potiskum IX 17.55 13.54 10.57 4.74 2.52 1.29 0.70
90.76 71.00 41.43 15.92 8.47 4.28 2.17
Nguru X 19.16 18.25 10.16 3.89 2.18 1.15 0.61
106.34 70.46 35.11 11.97 6.30 3.25 1.66

*Record length of 20-29 years.

Other records are 14-19 years.

DISCUSSION OF RESULTS
The results of the chi-square test of goodness of fit showed that in
95% of the cases the null hypothesis that the extreme rainfall series
have the Gumbel EV-1 distribution is acceptable at the 5% level of
significance. The few cases in which the fitting was not good were
either for 0.2 or 0.4 h durations. This may not be surprising for
as Hershfield (1962) noted such high intensity-rainfall-frequency
data are not usually accurate and could be subject to large errors
due mainly to sampling deficiencies.
The estimates of 1/a, g and IDF values should therefore prove
reliable and useful. For shorter durations such as 0.2 and 0.4 h,
the value of 1/S is higher in zones VI and IX than in other zones,
and appreciably lower in zones III, Vila and VIII. However, for
durations exceeding 1 h zones I and II show consistently higher
values of both 1/S and S than other zones, and zones Vila, VIII and
IX are also associated with the lowest values of 3-
 Rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationships 363

iiifi
: ^ i

tsnoH h3d UJUJ anoH a 3d ^^ NI TivjNiva iinoH a^d

364 Lekan Oyebande

£ g ?
î S I 1 s ! §
N! TWJNÎVy
Rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationships 365

ti
366 Lekan Oyebande

The plots of the rainfall intensity vs. return period are shown
in Fig.2 for each of the regions or zones. The plots permit a
comparison of the observed data with the expected (fitted by EV-1)
values, particular for the longer return periods. The 2SE
confidence limits are also sketched in the plots and used to
determine possible outliers where such are suspected to be
significant.
Outliers are defined by Tomlinson (1980, p. 9) as values that
plot inconsistently with the rest of the data. In the present study
a value that plots outside the confidence interval defined by twice
the standard error of estimate (2SE1 is considered as an outlier.
On the whole the fitting of the EV-1 appears satisfactory for at
least three reasons:
(a) the EV-1 distribution seems to fit the whole series well for
all the regions;
(b) the chi-square value of goodness of fit is not abnormally
high, or highly significant (except for the 0.2 h duration for
zones III and IV);
(c) the fitting appears to produce a good estimate of the 100-year
value as evidenced by zone II and as inferred from zones III and IVa.
The duration of 0.2 h (12 min) produces some outliers (according
to the analytical definition above) in several regions for return
periods greater than 25 years, but the possible deviation is rather
small in virtually all cases. Zone II provides a good example (and
some confident assurance) for determining the reliability of the
estimates for longer return periods, for though T = 115, all the
observed data points fall within the confidence limits, even for
the 0.2 h duration.
According to Tomlinson (1980) there are three basic reasons why
outliers occur. The values may be incorrect observations; they can
represent a rare occurrence; or they may represent an occurrence
which has resulted from a different phenomenon from that which
produced the other values in the series.
Most of the outliers observed in Fig.2 appear to be due to the
first reason, especially since many of them occur in the middle of
the plot. It appears, however, that the outliers in zones I, Vllb
and X may be due to the second reason. In the case of the 0.2 h
plot for zone I for instance, the two largest values may actually
represent some 100-year rainfall occurring in a 45-year series.
There are several ways of dealing with outliers. They may be
excluded while the parameters are recalculated. On the other
hand we may include them and select a more appropriate distribution,
fitting technique or plotting position. The deviation of the
outliers observed in the present study does not seem to justify
doing any of the above.
It can be seen from the plots in Fig.2 that the plots and
estimates are generally good for durations of 1 h and longer. The
same applies to 0.4 h durations which are not shown in the plots.

CONCLUSION
It is interesting that statistical evidence supports the
appropriateness of the Gumbel EV-1 distribution for fitting annual
 Rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationships 367

extreme rainfall series. The results obtained should serve to meet

the need for rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationships and
estimates in various parts of Nigeria, both for short and longer
recurrence intervals. The need has been particularly great because
many large basins remain inadequately gauged while some are hardly
gauged at all. The use of the results of this study to provide
design floods could be done with greater confidence and somewhat
calculable risk for each zone.
It is hoped that as more data become available this objective
analytical estimation could also be applied to individual station
series with confidence. The results could then be used to
construct isarithmic or isopleth maps which not only provide the
magnitude of extreme falls of known duration and frequency at points
required but also provide a total view of the statistical surface of
the extreme rainfall in the country for each duration and frequency.

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