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Economic Crises and the European
Revolutionsof 1848
HELGEBERGERAND MARK SPOERER
Recent historical research tends to view the 1848 revolutions in Europe as caused by
a surge of radical ideas and by long-term socioeconomic problems. However, many
contemporary observers interpretedmuch of the upheaval as a consequence of short-
term economic causes, specifically the serious shortfall in food supply that had
shaken large parts of the Continent in 1845-1847, and the subsequent industrial
slump. Applying standard quantitative methods to a data set of 27 European coun-
tries, we show that it was mainly immediate economic misery, and the fear thereof,
that triggered the European revolutions of 1848.
The Journal of Economic History, Vol. 61, No. 2 (June 2001). ? The Economic History
Association. All rights reserved. ISSN 0022-0507.
Helge Berger, CES, University of Munich, and CESifo; Mark Spoerer, University of Hohenheim,
Stuttgart;e-mail: spoerer@uni-hohenheim.de. Address correspondence to Helge Berger, CES, Schack-
strasse 4, 80539 Munich, Germany. E-mail: h.berger@ces.vwl.uni-muenchen.de.
The article has benefited greatly from discussions at the 1848 Conference in Offenburg, seminars
at the Universitat Pompeu Fabra (Barcelona), the Center for Comparative History of Europe (Berlin),
and the 1998 EHA Meeting in Durham, NC. Rolf Dumke, Timothy Guinnane, Bertrand Roehner,
Richard Tilly, Eugene White, and especially Sheilagh Ogilvie provided very helpful comments and
suggestions. We would also like to thank Jonas Ljungberg, Lars Svensson, Jan Luiten van Zanden, and
other members of the discussion group EH.RES for providing useful references and data. Michael
Kopsidis was kind enough to provide data on Prussian grain prices compiled from archival sources.
Additional comments by the editor, Jan de Vries, the assistant editor, Heath Pearson, and a referee
considerably improved the article.
See for example Kaelble, "1848."
293
294 Berger and Spoerer
Householdsexperiencemacroeconomicfluxthroughchangesin theirreal
budgets. While this is as true today as it was duringthe first half of the
nineteenthcentury,the channelsthroughwhich an economic crisis would
influence the family budgetwere differentthen. On the expenditureside,
lower-class households around 1850 still spent between two-thirds and
three-quarters of theirincomeson nourishment.'3 The bulk of the food pur-
chasedconsistedof grainproductsandpotatoes,whichrenderedhousehold
budgetsvery sensitiveto changesin thepricesof these goods. This sensitiv-
ity was greaterthe smallerthe overall size of the budget, as low-income
'?Kimmel, Revolution, pp. 4-7; and Goldstone, Revolution, pp. 7-12. We follow the broader
definitions of Kimmel, which do not require that a revolution be successful. This broad definition is
similar to the notion of revolution in C. Tilly ("Revolutions," pp. 519-24) and what he defined later
as a "revolutionary situation" (European Revolutions, p. 10).
" Labrousse, "1848," p. 77. Quote from Steams, Revolutions, p. 12.
12
Siegenthaler, Regelvertrauen, pp. 157-64.
13 In England, 81 percent in 1790 and 78 percent in 1904-1913 (Phelps Brown and Hopkins, "Seven
Centuries," p. 297); 63 percent in all households in Milan in 1847 (Maddalena, Prezzi, p. 330); 73
percent in Berlin in 1800 (Abel, Agrarkrisen, p. 245); and 59 percent among Prussian rural workers
in 1847, 67 percent among urban workers in 1837 and 1847 (Saalfeld, "Lebensverhaltnisse,"
pp. 236-39). Rural workers, of course, produced more of their own food than did urban workers.
Revolutionsof 1848 297
0.3
0.2 O OOO
-0.2
-0.3 ' ' ' ' , I
FIGURE1
OF PRUSSIANGRAINMARKETS,1820-1850
THE INTEGRATION
Notes: Plotted are the annualfirst differencesof the originalprice series, in logs. For illustrative
purposes,we omit one outlier.The full (abbreviated)sampleproducesa highlysignificantcoefficient
of correlationof 0.77 (0.73). Due to seasonalityin ryeandwheatprices,thecoefficientfortherawdata
is much larger:0.93 (full sample).
Source:Kopsidis,Marktintegration, tableVg/l ff.
14
Accordingto Drameet al. (Siecle,p. 20), thepriceelasticityof demandforwheathoveredaround
0.6 throughoutnineteenth-century France.
'5 See Bass,Hungerkrisen,p. 62. SimilarresultsforCologne1818-1850 arereportedby Ebelingand
Irsigler("ZurEntwicklung,"p. 306).
16 Germanysee G6mmel,Realeinkommen, p. 27; andGerhard,Ldhne.ForBelgium,France,and
GreatBritainsee Mitchell,InternationalHistoricalStatistics,p. 181.
298 Berger and Spoerer
160 160
40 40
120 120
200 100
80 80
60 60
40 40
England France
20 20
O. . .,.-., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..........
........... O .
1820 1823 1830 1835 1840 1845 1850 1820 1825 1830 1835 1840 1845 1850
140 140
100~~~~ 100
40SAK 40
Prussia Sweden
20 20
0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O " . ^.- . . .
. .
1820 1825 1830 1835 1840 1845 1850 1820 1825 1830 1835 1840 1845 1850
FIGURE2
EUROPEAN WHEAT PRICES, 1820-1850
Notes: The series are for London, the region around Paris, Berlin, and Stockholm county.
Sources: See the Appendix.
0.9:
0.8 - Europe
-Prussia
0.7-
0.6-
0.5-
0.4-
u
0.3 - .
0.2-
0.1
1820 1822 1824 1826 1828 1830 1832 1834 1836 1838 1840 1842 1844 1846 1848 1850
FIGURE 3
THE CONVERGENCE OF EUROPEANa AND PRUSSIANb WHEAT PRICES, 1823-1850
a Five groups of Continental countries: Southeast (Switzerland, Lombardy, Papal States, Austria,
Hungary), West (France, Belgium), Center (Germany [aggregated], Netherlands), and North (Finland,
Norway,Sweden).b Eightprovinces.
Sources:See theAppendix;forGermany(aggregated)
see JacobsandRichter,Groj3handelspreise,
p. 74.
coefficientof correlation
betweenbothseriesis on averagehigherthan0.90 andneversmallerthan0.80.
Someregionalseriesshowa somewhatlargerstandard deviationthando thenationalaverages.Ourresults
do not dependon the choiceof the aggregationlevel,however.See theAppendixfordetailson the data.
21 Forthe impactof the CornLaws on BritishwheatpricesandEuropeanwheat-priceconvergence,
see Williamson,"Impact,"pp. 124-29.
300 Berger and Spoerer
Pt,+, t,jPt- j ( 1)
j=o
wherepe andp are expectedand actualfood prices and the lag length n is
assumedto be constant.Thetime-dependentparametersd and 8 areOLS
coefficientsfrom an autoregressive(AR) model estimatedwith the present
andpast observationsonp availableat time t
n
where 6 is a scaling factor that increasesin the sample length t and the
(1 x n) vector of observationsonp used to forecastpt.+,p,,. If we define
0-[]+t+I(Ptpt )-,Pt+,],"4
England France
40* 40
20 - 20
0 < A /\~
v V 0\/
------------------------ .2
-------B l - - - W
-60 -60
1826 1828 1830 1832 1834 1836 1838 1840 1842 1844 1846 1848 1850 1826 1828 1830 1832 1834 1836 1838 1840 1842 1844 1846 1848 1850
60 60
Prussia Sweden
40 40 4
20 ~ ~~~~~
~~~~
-
- - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - -_ 2 -
-40 .40 ,
2~~ ~~FRCS GRI-RC EROS 1826-185
-601 * . 60
1826 1828 1830 1832 1834 1836 1838 1840 1842 1844 1846 1848 1850 1826 1828 1830 1832 1834 1836 1838 1840 1842 1844 I84 1848 1850
FIGURE4
FORECAST GRAIN-PRICE ERRORS, 1826-1850
200 -
Paris
180-
160-
140 -
120 -
100
80-
60
1840 1841 1842 1843 1844 1845 1846 1847 1848
160 -
Berlin
140 -
120 -
100
80-
60-
40-
1840 1841 1842 1843 1844 1845 1846 1847 1848
FIGURE 5
MONTHLY WHEAT PRICES IN PARIS AND BERLIN, 1840-1848
Notes: The dotted lines mark the average wheat price 1838-1845.
Sources: Amtsblatt 1840-1849; Labrousse, Romano, and Dreyfus, Prix, p. 196f.
Revolutionsof 1848 305
Leboyer and Bourguignon (French Economy, pp. 227-31), which show a time lag of one year. For the
Prussian textile industry see Blumberg (Deutsche Textilindustrie,pp. 200-05, 382), who uses quarterly
data. For the general crisis of crafts in 1847-1848 see Kuczynski, Lage, pp. 1.1 78f., 2.85-97; and
Bergmann, Wirtschaftskrise, pp. 50, 63-70.
3" See for instance Obermann, "Wirtschafts- und sozialpolitische Aspekte," for evidence on dissaving
in Prussian lower- and middle-class households.
" Described in detail by Boot, Commercial Crisis, ch. 6. See also Ward-Perkins, "Commercial
Crisis."
36 For monthly London market and bank rates see Ward-Perkins, "Commercial Crisis," p. 94. For
annual series of short-tern European interest rates see Homer, History, pp. 208, 230, 242, 252, 265,
and 270.
3 For England see Boot, Commercial Crisis, p. 49; for Prussia see Obermann, "Wirtschafts- und
sozialpolitische Aspekte," p. 163, and Lichter, Preujiische Notenbankpolitik, p. 22. In England, the
commercial crisis was immediately overcome when the Bank of England was allowed to lend at a bank
rate above 8 percent. See Ward-Perkins, "Commercial Crisis," p. 78; and Boot, Commercial Crisis,
p.52.
306 Berger and Spoerer
20 Austria 20 England
10 , 10 v_ ___
.210 . .20-
1842 1843 1844 1845 1846 1847 1848 1849 1850 1827 1829 1831 1833 1835 1837 1839 1841 1843 1845 1847 1849
-20.30
.20 , ,_ , .20
,- - ?_--- - -
.10 _.10
-30 , . . . . . , . , , , , , , , , , , .30
20 France
20Netherland
,o , _S Io ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~--
v- -
--- -
-----------------------------
1832 183 3 1837 l839 1841 1843 1845 184 184 50 1840 1841 1842 1843 1844 18 45 1846 1847 1848 l849 1850
30 -230S
20 Neerlanc 20 Prungar
-30- , . 30-
30. 30~~~~~~~~~3
1832 1834 1836 183 1840 1842 1843 1846 1848 184
l839 l 1843 1844 1847 184
1890 6 1847 1848 1849
.20.
.30
1827 1829 1831 1833 1835 1837 1839 1841 1843 1845 1847 1849
FIGURE 6
INDUSTRIAL SHOCKS, 1827-1850
Notes:All growth rates in percent. Prussia: textile production only. Netherlands: model includes trend.
Sources:See the Appendix.
Revolutionsof 1848 309
See andHAC
reported). Significant
the Significant
0.64 (4.81) -0.33
-0.63 -0.94
-0.80 (6.33)
at
Significant
at
larger)production 1835-50 -0.22*** 21.19***
at the
the
t-statistics Austria
the5 10
1
only.
suggest
Appendix. 0.66 -9.82 -0.11 -0.53
(1.63)
1835-50 (1.10) -0.28 -0.56
-0.92
(2.25)
13.99*
no
(absolute) percent
percent
percent
are -0.07 -0.27
-0.32 -0.61
-0.62
level.0.28
level. (1.65) (2.31)
in level. 13.54**
1820-50
autocorrelation England
-0.31
(3.17) (2.18) -0.43 -0.54
-0.59 (2.65)
of 0.36 15.42**
1820-50 10.49***-0.09**
theparentheses.
In
all
-0.18
(3.59) -0.39 -0.51
-0.68 9.58
(1.52)
residuals. 0.39
cases 1825-50 -0.16***
Thethe
France DETERMINANTS
0.64 (3.71) (1.80) -0.33
-0.05
-0.48
-0.45 5.54
(0.83)
AR(m
models -0.08* OF
= 1825-50 -12.38***
for4)
(see
0.540.58-0.18
(3.37) -0.21 (3.79) TABLE
England,
elements 0.46
1835-50 4.20*** 2
equation
-0.09***
of 6)
the Hungary
France,
0.53 -0.11 0.66 MANUFACTURING
(1.88) (1.11) 0.201.26-0.58
-0.04 (0.24)
the 1835-50 -6.55*
models
are
0.18 -0.06 -0.18
-0.20 -0.14
-0.39 7.74 GROWTH
1820-50 (0.95) (1.07)
Netherlands,
jointly
and RATES
Netherlands
0.15 4.01(0.92) 0.18-0.20
-0.07 -0.15
-0.38 8.81
(0.58)
1820-50 (1.10)
significant
Sweden
at
0.57 (4.11) 0.18-0.09
-0.76
-0.70
(3.91)
include 1833-50 -0.42*** 31.78***
a
Prussia'
conventional
linear 0.59 (2.77) (2.49) 0.09-0.13 -0.65
-0.64 (2.49)
1833-50 -13.08**-0.29** 23.18**
andlevels
a
(Wald -0.37
(3.07) -0.16 -0.68
-0.34 (3.70)
0.49
quadratic 1820-50 -0.14*** 10.87***
F-test). Sweden
trend 2.22(2.86) -0.19 -0.31
-0.39 -0.71
0.48 (1.29) (3.48)
term
Q-tests 1820-50 -0.15*** 11.05***
Revolutionsof 1848 311
CRISISAND REVOLUTION
46 A possibly critical case could be the Netherlands, which Steams (Revolutions, p. 1) would not
49For these countries we were unable to find compatible grain price data extending back to the
1820s.
Revolutionsof 1848 313
(1) Price
52.13
82.58 62.33
66.32 76.12 87.88
93.80 75.90 73.30 72.91
73.99
71.20 39.01
88.32 67.11
76.68 61.48
93.82 70.02 52.89
76.96 Wheat
1838-45aAverage
81.51
135.99 109.51 125.21
140.13128.70
100.29 110.68
146.72 149.18
101.23
110.8992.34 108.72
105.12 127.28
136.57 (2)
103.96 Wheat
(Year)
1845-48a
Maximum
(47) (47)
(47)(47)(47)(47)
79.34(47) (47)
(47)(47)(47)
(47) (47) (47)
119.13(47) (47)(47)
119.69(47)
(47) (47)
(47) Price
3 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 High
(3) Years
Prices
184547b of
Grain AGRICULTURA
Agriculture
Error
2.51
2.33 2.23
1.16 2.54 2.57
2.59 2.76 2.41
2.23 2.27 2.38
2.56 2.24 2.71
2.45 2.41 2.31
2.74 2.72 (4)
(45)(47)(46)(47)(47)
(47) (46) (47)(47)(47)
(47) (46) (45)(46)
2.19(47)
(47) (46)(47)
(47) (46)
(47) SE(Year)MaximumINDUSTRIAL,
Price-Forecast
1845-48
AND
TABLE
3
Error
(7) 1848
0.57 -2.48 -2.02 -2.63 -2.49 Industry
SEForecast
Production-1845-1848
in Politics
(yes)
(yes)
(yes)
(yes) (yes) yesyesyesyesyesyesyesyesyesyesyesyesyesyesyes (10)
(yes)
1848?
Revolution
314 Berger and Spoerer
' b a
Rye Spain
Sources: Grams Russiac
Sweden Finland
NorwayEngland
Number
of
prices.
See of
fine
the
years
in silver
per
Appendix.
which
(1) Price
105.34
75.76 89.28
50.72 115.31
73.57 Wheat
grain 1838-45aAverage
hectoliter.
prices
81.44
141.27
44.12 73.69 (2)Wheat
(Year)
1845-48a
Maximum
(45)(47)
exceeded (48)119.74(47)
134.68(47)
(45) Price
the
1 2 0 2 1 1 High
(3) Years
average Prices
1845-47b of
Grain
for Agriculture
Error
1838-45
1.25
1.75 2.13
-0.10 1.81 (4)
-0.34
(45)(47)
(46)(47)
(46)
(47) Maximum TABLE
SE(Year)
Price-Forecast
1845-48
(Column 3-
1).
no no no yesno no (5) Price
ShockGrain-
1845-48? continued
Error
(7) 1848
1.08 1.09
SEForecast Industry
Production-
no no (8) Shock
1848?
in Industrial
in Politics
no no no no no no (10)
1848?
Revolution
Revolutionsof 1848 315
t t
<P r
o~~~~~
GA~~~~~~~~~~~~~4
\
b ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~gp
7
WHEATPRICESIN EUROPE
Notes: Left: averagewheat price, 1820-1845. Middle: maximumwheat price, 1845-1848. Right:
FIGuRE
intensityof price shock(if any). All pricesare in garams
of fineCsilverper hectolitre.ABC, Abc, abc:
Countrywith violentrevolution,immediateconstitutionalchange,or neither.
Source: Table 3, cols. 2 and 4.
318 Berger and Spoerer
CONCLUSIONS
democracy. In contrast to the crises of 1816/17, when there was still hope
that the forces of restoration could be defeated, the crisis of 1845-1848 took
place in the context of a much larger and more popular variety of political
alternatives that called for immediate action.56Here, at least, we see histori-
cal singularities. The likelihood that revolutionary ideology was a necessary
condition for upheaval transcends a narrow economistic approach. But
although the economic crises did not provide the brains, they did supply the
brawn. Revolutionary agitators,pursuing their goals in an undemocratic and
often repressive political environment, needed violence (or the credible
threat of it) as a political instrument, and only the "crowd" could provide
it.57We conclude that without the economic crisis of 1845-1848, which so
obviously endangered the economic welfare of so many people and discred-
ited the ancien regime so thoroughly, there would not have been the critical
mass to support these new ideas. Hence no explanation of the European
revolutions of 1848 should neglect short-tenn economic factors.
et al., RebelliousCentury.
" Hobsbawmhas termedthis "bargainingby riot"("MachineBreakers,"p. 57).
Revolutionsof 1848 321
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