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XV Portuguese Conference on Fracture, PCF 2016, 10-12 February 2016, Paço de Arcos, Portugal
XV Portuguese Conference on Fracture, PCF 2016, 10-12 February 2016, Paço de Arcos, Portugal
Methodology for assessing the probabilistic condition of an asset
Methodology for assessing the probabilistic condition of an asset
based inonconcepts
XV Portuguese Conference of2016,
Fracture, PCF structural reliability
10-12 February 2016, Paço de Arcos, Portugal
based in concepts of structural reliability
“PCBM - Probabilistic
Thermo-mechanical modeling Condition
of a highBased Maintenance”
pressure turbine blade of an
“PCBM - Probabilistic Condition Based Maintenance”
airplane gas turbine engine
Fernando Teixeiraa, Jánes Landre Juniorb* a
Fernando Teixeira a
, Jánes Landre
b
Juniorcb*
a
P.Católica
PUC MINAS, Pontifícia
ab
Brandãode Minas, Gerais,
V. Infante , A.M.
Av. Dom José Gaspar,Deus * Horizonte, Brasil
500, Belo
PUC MINAS, Pontifícia Católica de Minas Gerais, Av. Dom José Gaspar, 500, Belo Horizonte, Brasil
a
DepartmentbPUC
of Mechanical Engineering,
MINAS, Pontifícia Instituto
Católica Superior
de Minas Técnico,
Gerais, Universidade
Av. Dom de Lisboa,
José Gaspar, Av.Horizonte,
500, Belo Rovisco Pais, 1, 1049-001 Lisboa,
Brasil
Portugal
b
IDMEC, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1, 1049-001 Lisboa,
Portugal
Abstract
c
CeFEMA, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1, 1049-001 Lisboa,
Abstract Portugal
The purpose of this paper is to propose a methodology for assessing the probabilistic condition of an asset with the introduction
Thethe
of purpose
conceptofof this paper(Probabilistic
PCBM is to propose Condition
a methodology
Basedfor assessing theasprobabilistic
Maintenance) an extensioncondition of an asset
of the existing conceptwithCBMthe introduction
(Condition
of the concept
Based of PCBM
Maintenance).
Abstract The(Probabilistic Conditionreliability
concepts of structural Based Maintenance)
and its methodsas anwill
extension
be usedoftothe existingthe
evaluate concept CBM
structural (Condition
integrity of a
Based
mechanical system. The evaluation will be held through the probability of failure of this system and its reliability index. of
Maintenance). The concepts of structural reliability and its methods will be used to evaluate the structural integrity Thea
mechanical
During
system system.
willtheir
be subjectThe
to evaluation
operation,dynamic will
modernloads. be held
aircraft engine
From through theresults,
components
experimental probability of failure
aresimulations
subjected ofbethis systemdemanding
to increasingly
will performed and theits reliability
operating
correlations index. The
conditions,
between
system
the will be
especially thesubject
probabilistic high
model toand
dynamic
pressure loads.
theturbine From
(HPT)
deterministic experimental
blades.
will beSuch results,
conditions
conducted simulations
causetothese
in order will
parts
verify betopossibility
the performed andusing
undergo different
of the types
correlations between
of time-dependent
this methodology to
the probabilistic
degradation,
support model
one and the
of which
the decision-making deterministic
is creep.
process. A modelwill
usingbethe
conducted in order
finite element to verify
method (FEM)thewaspossibility of using
developed, in orderthistomethodology to
be able to predict
the creep
support behaviour of HPT
the decision-making blades. Flight data records (FDR) for a specific aircraft, provided by a commercial aviation
process.
company,
© 2016 were used
The Authors. to obtain
Published bythermal
Elsevierand
B.V.mechanical data for three different flight cycles. In order to create the 3D model
© 2016,
neededPROSTR (Procedia Structural Integrity) Hosting by Elsevier
was Ltd. All rights
andreserved.
© 2016 Theforunder
Peer-review the
Authors. FEM analysis,
Published
responsibility by
ofaElsevier
HPT
the blade
B.V. scrap
Scientific Committee scanned,
of PCF 2016. its chemical composition and material properties were
Peer-review under
obtained. under responsibility
The data of the Scientific
that was gathered Committee
was fed into of PCF
the FEM 2016.
Peer-review responsibility of the Scientific Committee ofmodel and different simulations were run, first with a simplified 3D
PCF 2016.
rectangular block shape, in order to better establish the model, and then with the real 3D mesh obtained from the blade scrap. The
Keywords: Structural reliability, Fatigue, maintenance
overall expected
Keywords: behaviourFatigue,
Structural reliability, in terms of displacement was observed, in particular at the trailing edge of the blade. Therefore such a
maintenance
model can be useful in the goal of predicting turbine blade life, given a set of FDR data.
1. ©
Introduction
2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
1. Introduction
Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of PCF 2016.
The structural reliability is a relatively new issue in terms of science, it has been developing rapidly in recent
TheThe
years. structural
Keywords: first reliability
High mathematical
Pressure isformulation
Turbine a relatively
Blade; innew issue Method;
structural
Creep; Finite Element in terms
safety of science,
problems
3D Model; it has
can be been developing
attributed
Simulation. rapidlyStreletskii
to Mayer (1926), in recent
years. The first mathematical formulation in structural safety problems can be attributed to Mayer (1926),
(1947) and Wierzbicki (1936). They found that the strength and load parameters are random variables, therefore, for Streletskii
(1947) and Wierzbicki
each frame, (1936).
there is a failure They found
probability that the strength and load parameters are random variables, therefore, for
associated.
each frame, there is a failure probability associated.
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +55-31-3319-4910; fax: +55-31-3319-4910.
*E-mail address:author.
Corresponding janes@pucminas.br
Tel.: +55-31-3319-4910; fax: +55-31-3319-4910.
E-mail address: janes@pucminas.br
2452-3216 © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Peer-review underThe
2452-3216 © 2016 responsibility of theby
Authors. Published Scientific Committee of PCF 2016.
Elsevier B.V.
Peer-review underauthor.
* Corresponding responsibility
Tel.: +351of218419991.
the Scientific Committee of PCF 2016.
E-mail address: amd@tecnico.ulisboa.pt

2452-3216 © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of PCF 2016.
2452-3216 © 2016, PROSTR (Procedia Structural Integrity) Hosting by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Peer review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of PCF 2016.
10.1016/j.prostr.2016.02.025
2 Author name / Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2016) 000–000
182 Fernando Teixeira et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 1 (2016) 181–188

These concepts were developed by Freudenthal in the 50s The formulations and functions involved were difficult
to solve, so reliability analysis of the practical applications were only possible with the pioneering work of Cornell
and Lind in the late '60s and early '70s.
From the 70s different projects were developed by various researchers with respect to structural reliability
applied in the design phase as well as evaluation of existing structures and the development of methods for
optimizing these analyzes.
In terms related to evaluating the structural reliability of existing structures, Diamantidis (1987) examines, in a
general way on the implementation of probabilistic methods in the assessment of the structural reliability of existing
structures with the application of the FORM method ("First Order Reliability Method" ) in offshore structures.
Vanhazebrouck (2008) proposed a method based on the concepts of structural reliability and application of the
FORM method ("First Order Reliability Method"), to evaluate the residual strength of pipeline defects caused by
corrosion. Amaral (2011) also carried a review of corroded metal ducts, observing the evolution over time of the
security index for various operating conditions.
Câmara (2011) used the concepts of structural reliability to support the process of defining inspections on ships
structures subject to fatigue and corrosion.
Carvajalino (2013) evaluated the probability of failure of natural gas pipelines and oil for different events that
occur in the life of a structure.
Soares (2013) determined the reliability of a rectangular steel plate subjected to compressive stress with non-
uniform corrosive wear on its surface and its evolution over the time.
In terms of structural reliability as a support tool to the decision-making process, Gomes (2013) proposes an
optimization of risks in random processes of corrosion and fatigue through strategies for inspection and
maintenance.
In several works, there are initiatives for the assessment of existing structures by means of structural reliability
concepts. These concepts are used to support the decision making process regarding inspections and maintenance
policies. However, an objective and systematic approach to the use of the parameters generated by the analysis of
structural reliability for application in operations for the maintenance engineering still requires further development.
Thus, the intention of this work is to contribute to the decision making process, for possible interventions in an
asset or structure, through a methodology for assessing the safety level and probability of failure through structural
reliability. A concept to this methodology will be developed. This concept will be given the name of PCBM
(Probabilistic Condition Based Maintenance) as an extension of the existing concept of CBM (Condition Based
Maintenance) where the own safety index and the probability of failure becomes the monitoring variable.
By monitoring the evolution of safety parameters and probability of failure over time, the ideal time for a
intervention can be established, as well as changes in the operational aspects to the asset back to an acceptable level
of safety.
Nomenclature

Pf Probability of failure
G(U ) Failure function
 Reliability index
N Number of cycles
R Ultimate stress
 max Maximum stress
 min Minimum stress
f (U ) Probability density function
CPM Cycles per minute
COV Coefficient of variation
 Fernando Teixeira et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 1 (2016) 181–188 183
Author name / Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2016) 000–000 3

2. Structural reliability

According to Melchers (1999), the study of structural reliability is related to the calculation and prediction of the
probability of limit state violation for a structural engineering system at any time during their life. In other words it
can be said that the structural reliability principles is to determine the probability of failure of a structure and thus
the characterization of its safety index. The probability of failure and its safety index can be evaluated either in the
design phase and operational phase. According to Nowak and Collins (2012), the concepts of structural reliability
can be applied both in designs of new structures for the evaluation of existing structures. For use of the concepts of
structural reliability and its methods, some definitions are essential.

2.1. Failure

According to NBR 5462, failure is the end of the ability of an item to perform its required function. The failure of
a system or asset is the loss of ability this item to perform the function for which it was designed. This definition
may well be used for a structure or an asset in specific, regarding compliance or non-compliance with its function.

2.2. Limit state

Ditlevsen and Madsen (1996), the limit state concept is related to a specific requirement of the structure, in which
the structure is in a point of not meeting this requirement. This definition is not as clear as that of Nowak and
Collins (2012), "the state boundary is the borderline between the desired performance and the undesired of a
structure." In the other words the boundary between the fault state and the no failure state.

2.3. Limit state function

The structural reliability analysis is based on the existence of a limit state function or failure function G(U)
Sagrilo (1994). U = (U1,U2,…,Un), The set of random variables involved in the analysis. The limit state function
G(U) is defined as the limit G(U)=0 between failure domain and no failure, G(U) < 0 e G(U) > 0 respectively. See
figure 1.

Figure 1 – Limit state example

184 Fernando Teixeira et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 1 (2016) 181–188
4 Author name / Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2016) 000–000

2.4. Failure probability and safety index

An important parameter for evaluating a structure is its probability of failure. The probability of failure is related
to the values of the failure function are located in fault region.

Pf  PG(U )  0 (1)

Since f(U) the probability density function of all variables involved in the phenomenon, the probability of failure
can be written as:

Pf   fu (U )du (2)
F

Figure 2 illustrates the two-dimensional case.

Figure 2 – Two – dimensional case – Melchers (1999)

Set the probability of failure, the safety index or reliability index can be defined as:

   1 ( Pf ) (3)

3. Maintenance engineering

In general the maintenance function can be defined as a set of technical and managerial actions taken throughout
the life of the asset to maintain or restore its required function Shin and Jun (2015). According to the expectations of
the maintenance function, various techniques have been developed to improve the maintenance of assertiveness. In
this context, Moubray (2000), divided the evolution of maintenance generations in a timeline, described in figure 3.
This development is directly related to the expectations of each season.
 Fernando Teixeira et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 1 (2016) 181–188 185
Author name / Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2016) 000–000 5

Figure 3 – Changing maintenance techniques – Moubray (2000)

Regarding the types of maintenance will be given focus on condition based maintenance.

3.1. Condition Based Maintenance (CBM)

The condition-based maintenance, or predictive maintenance, is nothing more than the name suggests, a
preventive maintenance on an asset based on the operating condition of this asset. An important feature of this type
of maintenance is the monitoring of equipment by measurements carried out when it is fully operational, enabling
higher availability.
Predictive maintenance stands out for its characteristic anticipation of the diagnosis of possible faults in assets. It
is held close to the fault or the most appropriate time considering other operational requirements (BRANCO FILHO,
2006). These activities based on the results of quantitative periodic inspections, which are performed by measuring
parameters to monitor the degradation and to detect fault signals. It is usually known as predictive maintenance.
(XENOS, 2004). Predictive maintenance can still be defined as the follow-up activity of certain parameters of the
equipment to indicate their performance in a systematic way, in order to identify the exact moment of the
intervention (Kardec and Carvalho, 2002).

4. Methodology

The methodology for implementation of the concept and development follows the following steps:

4.1. Experimental model definition

It was built an experimental model consisting of an electric motor 0.25cv, which drives three shafts with
diameters of 12.7 mm, 19.0mm and 25.4mm. In each of these axes, one steel disc lies coupled. This disc aims to
promote a dynamic effort to the shaft. It was installed on each axis a steel sheet to promote wear. The collection and
186 Fernando Teixeira et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 1 (2016) 181–188
6 Author name / Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2016) 000–000

measurement system was installed in the wear plates for measuring stresses and strains. See figure 4. The results
presented in this article are related to the axis of 12.7mm.

Figure 4 – Experimental model

4.2. Failure mode and limit function

The failure mode chosen for the study was the fatigue failure mode. Based on the fracture mechanic equations, it
was obtained the following limit function:

 ( max  min ). R  (4)

G (U )  5,14. R .N 0, 2476   
 2. R   max   min 

4.3. Deformation data collection and stress definition

Deformation data were collected by extensometry. They were performed in two situations, with speed of 970
CPM and 1512 CPM. The data collected were modeled by FEM to determine the stress on the shaft. Figure 5 shows
the model built in FEM

Figure 5 – Model in FEM

 Fernando Teixeira et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 1 (2016) 181–188 187
Author name / Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2016) 000–000 7

4.4. Probability distributions for the maximum and minimum stresses

With the maximum and minimum stresses acting on the shaft, it was determined the probability distribution
model that best fit the data to the rotations of 970 CPM and 1512 CPM respectively. Tables 1 and 2 show a
summary of these distributions for the rotations of 970 CPM and 1512 CPM.

Table 1. Summary 970 CPM.

Variable Mean Standard deviation COV Distribution
Maximum stress (MPa) 37.2940 4.1570 0.1115 lognormal
Minimum stress (MPa) 36.6870 4.5130 0.1230 lognormal
Ultimate stress (MPa) 380.00 22.8670 0.0602 lognormal

Table 2. Summary 1512 CPM.

Variable Mean Standard deviation COV Distribution
Maximum stress (MPa) 46.5967 3.3152 0.0712 lognormal
Minimum stress (MPa) 43.8729 3.8730 0.0883 lognormal
Ultimate stress (MPa) 380.00 22.8670 0.0602 lognormal

4.5. Structural reliability method, probability of failure and reliability index

The method FORM (First Order Reliability Method) was chosen. Table 3 shows the summary of the probability
of failure and reliability index values for 970 CPM and 1512 CPM.

Table 3. Summary of reliability analysis

Rotation Structural reliability Probability of failure Reliability
(CPM) method (%) index
970 FORM 5.4076e-062 16.5736
1512 FORM 8.2679e-020 9.0341

5. Conclusions

Despite the probabilities of failure are very small, this experiment shows that the results of probability of failure
were higher for the 1512 CPM compared with the 970CPM, as well as the stresses on the shaft.
Common sense, for a simplified situation like this would indicate a 'risk' greater for a system with higher stresses.
The probability of failure and the reliability index shown in Table 3 confirm this situation.
The results still are in a preliminary and need more tests, but opens a perspective for the use of the failure
probability or safety index as a monitoring variable. Thus it will expand the concept of condition-based maintenance
to probabilistic condition based maintenance.
Experiments in real systems and the development of limits for possible failure modes are required for full
implementation and development of this concept.
8 Author name / Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2016) 000–000

188 Fernando Teixeira et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 1 (2016) 181–188

.

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