TURKISH ELECTIONS 24 JUNE 2018
OUTCOMES & IMPLICATIONS
KEY TAKE-AWAYS
• Incumbent President Erdogan
won the Presidency with
approximately 52.6% of the vote
(unofficial)
• The AK Party and CHP
Presidential Candidates claimed
more votes than their respective
parties
• The AK Party won the simple
Parliamentary majority (51%)
only in an alliance with the MHP
(People’s Alliance)
• The People’s Alliance does not
provide the seats necessary for
constitutional changes
• The TL strengthened slightly
following the election results
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• Implementation of new executive
presidency and the Turkish
presidential system
• Status of State of Emergency and
presidential emergency
directives
• Response to economic crisis
(especially monetary policy) and
continued focus on public
spending (especially
infrastructure)
• Implementation of planned
ministerial and bureaucratic
consolidation (24  16)
• Presidential selection of
ministerial leaders from outside
the Parliament and without
Parliamentary vote
• MHP application of critical
Alliance leverage in new
Parliament, requiring AK Party to
negotiate/bargain with Alliance
partner
• Continuation of shift from Turkish
globalization (EU membership,
etc.) to “Turkey First” orientation
OVERVIEW
The Turkish electorate made a strong showing Sunday, with some suggesting
approximately 90% of the electorate cast ballots for the simultaneous Presidential
and Parliamentary elections. The Supreme Election Council has not yet released the
official election results but has indicated that it will do so shortly and that projections
appear accurate. Opposition has already suggested reservations.
Presidential Results
Incumbent President Erdogan is projected to have won over 51% of the
Presidential vote (52.6%), followed by CHP candidate Muharrem Ince with 30.6%
and HDP candidate (held in pre-trial detention) Salahattin Demirtas with 8.4% of the
vote, more than the nationalist IYI Party candidate Meral Aksener (7.3%). President
Erdogan will implement the Turkey’s new presidential system, determine the state of
emergency, and respond to the ongoing economic crisis.
Parliamentary Results
The AK Party’s Parliamentary results were lower than expected, claiming only
42.5% of the vote. It did, however, retain the simple Parliamentary majority (51%) in
an alliance with the MHP (People’s Alliance). The MHP won a surprising 11.7%,
giving the Alliance 53.7%. The Alliance does not have sufficient Parliamentary seats
for constitutional amendment or a referendum. The CHP and IYI Party alliance
(Nation Alliance) won 34% of the vote.
THE NUMBERS
• The election prompted a high turn-out given the stakes, with Incumbent
President Erdogan taking a higher percentage of the votes among the eligible
voters in Germany (1.44million) than Turkey
Turnout
Votes Cast Valid Votes
51million 86.35%
49.9million
• Even with a wide field of candidates, incumbent President Erdogan claimed over
51% of the vote, preventing a run-off election
• The Parliamentary Breakdown was as follows:
AKP 42.5% HPD 11.7% IYI Party 10% Huda 0.3%
CHP 22.6% MPH Saadet 1.3% Vatan 0.2%
11.1%
• The alliances will prove important in the Parliament, with the AKP retaining the
majority only through the People’s Alliance (53.7%) thanks to the MPH and the
CHP working with the new IYI Party in the Nation Alliance (34%)
• HDP passed the required 10% threshold for Parliamentary representation, taking
11.7% of the vote and the IYI Party received approximately 10% of the vote
• “Turkey First” oriented parties (CHP, MHP, IYI Party) represented over 40% of
the Parliamentary vote
CHP 22.6% MPH 11.1% IYI Party 10%