Climate

change in
Ireland over
the last two
centuries
Photo taken from International Space Station 2018

1
 Introduction
• This is a graphical and accessible
presentation of Ireland’s climate since
the early 1800’s
• It has a minimum of technical details
so all can easily understand it
• Armagh Observatory has one of the Armagh Observatory
longest temperature records in the
world for the same site (since 1796)
• Data also from Met Éireann, UK
Met Office (NI) and other published
academic papers (all sources are Armagh

detailed) Observatory

• Graphs have different start dates

due to data availability varying for
the different climate aspects such as
temperature, rainfall, etc.

2
 What is climate?
• Simplest definition is the average of the last 30 years of
weather

• Met Éireann and other institutions use this definition and

compare current weather to defined period averages (e .g.
1980-2010)

• Climate includes temperatures (average, max, min), wind

speed, wind direction, gale & storm occurrence, rainfall,
sunshine, humidity and these are summarised here in
graphs

3
 CO2 from fossil fuels

• Climate scientists generally agree that CO2 from fossil fuels did
not have a measurable impact on climate before around 1950 as
there was very little then compared with recent decades
• Hence, comparisons of climate change before and after 1950 are
important to show the impact of human-caused CO2
4
 Annual Temperature
Armagh Observatory 1796-2017
11
10.5
10
9.5
9
Celsius

8.5
8
7.5 Climate Warming: Climate Warming:
0.84 C per Century 0.85 C per Century
7
6.5
6

Annual Average Temp Climate (30yr avg.)

5
 Seasonal Temperature (30yr avg.)
o
Armagh Observatory 1825-2017
16

14

12

10
Celsius

4
Warming per century:
2 Winter 1.4C; Spring 0.6C
Summer 0.4C; Autumn 1.1C
0
Warming per century:
Winter 0.3C; Spring 1.0C
Summer 1.0C; Autumn 1.0C

Winter Spring Summer Autumn

6
 Maximum Temperatures - Armagh Observatory
35

30

25
Celsius

20

15

10

Summer Max Winter Max

7
 Minimum Temperatures - Armagh Observatory
10

0
Celsius

-5

-10

-15

-20

Winter Min Summer Min Zero

8
 Number of Days Max Temperature
greater than 25C - Armagh Observatory
25

20

15
Day Count

10

9
 Number of Days Min Temperature
less than 0C - Armagh Observatory
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
Day Count

55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15

10
 Historical Temperature Record
• Firstly, note the great annual variability: the annual
average temperature in some years in the 1940’s was
greater than has been in recent years despite the
upward trend in the climate in the intervening years
• Climate warming (slide 5) is approximately the same
rate before and after 1950 (increase in 30 year average
in period scaled to a century)
• Max summer temperature (slide 7) has a small but
statistically significant rising trend but Max winter
temperatures has no trend
• Min summer & winter temperatures (slide 8) have no
stat sig trend, however clearly the late 19th century had
lower minimums with the winter min frequently below
-10C

11
 Historical Temperature Record
• The number of days that reached above 25C (slide 9)
showed an upward trend from 1976 up to around 1995
with 4 years having more than 14 days but since 1995
this has dropped to levels similar to before 1976
• The number of days with min below 0C (slide 10) has
reduced from longer term trends since around 1986
however 2010 had more than any in the whole period
since 1840
• Seasonal trends (slide 6) show less warming in winter at
Armagh but Island of Ireland trends generally show the
greatest warming in winter and spring (not shown here)

12
 Temperature Trend Comparisons
10.5
Correlation
10.0 Armagh - Ireland 99.3%
Armagh - Global 94.7%
9.5

9.0
Celsius

8.5

8.0
Warming per century: Warming per century:
Ireland 0.99C Ireland 0.61C
7.5 Armagh 0.96C Armagh 0.85C
Global 0.94C Global 1.17C
7.0

Ireland Armagh Global (Land)

13
 How representative is Armagh of
Irish & Global trends?
• Armagh’s climate trend is almost identical to Ireland’s
(see slide 13) even though it is about 0.35C colder on
average there than the average throughout Ireland due
to its northerly location on our island

• Armagh’s climate trend is similar to the global BEST land

data – principal difference is the cooling phase in Ireland
from 1960-90 which was a plateau to 1980 in the
global data (see slide 13)

14
 Total Annual Rainfall - Island of Ireland
1,500
1,400
1,300
Annual Total Rainfall (mm)

1,200
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
600
500

Annual Climate (30yr Avg.) Average

15
 Seasonal Rainfall 30 year average
Island of Ireland
350
330
310
Seasonal Rainfall (mm)

290
270
250
230
210
190
170
150

Winter Spring Summer Autumn

16
 Winter/Summer Rainfall Ratio - Island of Ireland
4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5
Rainfall Ratio

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Winter/Summer 30yr Avg. Average

17
 Occurrence of Monthly Rainfall greater than 200mm
350

300

250
Monthly Rainfall (mm)

200

150

100

50

18
 Occurrence of Monthly Rainfall less than 15mm
16

14

12
Monthly Rainfall (mm)

10

19
 Historical Rainfall Record
• Total annual rainfall (slide 15) shows a small increase in
the 30 year trend above the average since the early
1990’s but the extent of the increase is similar to the
size of reductions in trends from the average in the past
• Seasonal variability of rainfall is quite volatile and slide
16 shows clearly how the ratios vary considerably to even
reversing entirely for some
• The key summer/winter ratio (slide 17) had a significant
increase in 30 year trend since 1970 which has started
to reverse recently – extent of the departure from
average is similar, but opposite, to another departure
from 1750-1800

20
 Historical Rainfall Record
• A noticeable reduction in the trend of summer rainfall
(slide 16) from around 1970 onwards had reversed by
2010

• The frequency of months in which rainfall is greater than

200mm (slide 18) shows no trend or pattern, however
the 2 months with the highest monthly rainfall occurred
recently in Dec 2015 and in Nov 2009

• The frequency of months in which rainfall less than

15mm (slide 19) shows no significant trend overall or
remarkable difference in recent years

21
 Annual Number of 'Gale' References
in Daily Commentary - Armagh Observatory
40

35

30
Number of Gales

25

20

15
Missing Data

10

Annual 30 yr avg.

22
 Ireland Wind Speed 1939-2017
90

80

70

60

50
Knots

40

30

20

10

Monthly Avg Monthly Avg Trend Monthly Peak Monthly Peak Trend

23
 Historical Wind Record
• The annual occurrence of gales at Armagh displays very large
variability in long term trends based on ‘gale’ references in the
daily weather commentary (slide 22)

• A 2 to 3 fold increase in the number of gales from around

1920 through to 1970 has largely reversed today and this high
level of gales appears to have been present in earlier periods in
the record as well (1790’s to 1850’s)

• For Ireland as a whole the average wind speed has not changed
(slide 23), however the long term trend in max gust speeds
does show a reduction consistent with the Armagh record of
gales

24
 Annual Sunshine 1880-2017
Armagh Observatory & Ireland
1,800

1,600

1,400
Hours

1,200

1,000

800

600

Armagh Obs. 30 yr avg. Ireland

25
 Average Annual Humidity 1838-2017
Armagh Observatory
92
90
Percentage Relative Humidity

88
86
84
82
80
78
76
74

RH% 30 yr avg.

26
 Sunshine & Humidity
• Sunshine trends (slide 25) do show some variability with
variations of the long term trend of up to nearly 10%
evident
• The reduction in sunshine trend from 1920 to the mid-
1990’s has been reversing since then to today
• The general trend of Ireland’s sunshine follows the
Armagh trend
• Humidity (slide 26) does show some minor variations
but no discernible long-term trend

27
 Overall Conclusions
• The temperature record shows a clear trend upwards
since the late 18th century with the increase largely the
same today as it was in the past before CO2 could have
influenced climate
• The warming is largely an increase in minimum
temperatures as maximum temperatures show no large
changes
• Rainfall patterns are similar to the past but the two
wettest months on record occurred within the last 10
years
• A significant increase in the number of gales annually has
reversed in recent decades
• There are no major trends in Ireland’s climate that
marks out the period since 1950 as markedly different
28
 Data Sources
Temperature
• Republic of Ireland Mean Annual Temperature 1900-2012
– Met Eireann (2013) - Ireland’s climate: the road ahead (fig. 1 pg. 18)
– http://www.met.ie/publications/IrelandsWeather-13092013.pdf
• Republic of Ireland Mean Annual Temperature 2013-2017
– Met Eireann – Climate Annual 2013 to 2017 (Table - Annual Air Temperature
Values)
– 2013: https://www.met.ie/climate/MonthlyWeather/clim-2013-ann.pdf
– 2014: https://www.met.ie/climate/MonthlyWeather/clim-2014-ann.pdf
– 2015: https://www.met.ie/climate/MonthlyWeather/clim-2015-ann.pdf
– 2016 & 2017: http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly-weather-reports.asp
• Armagh Observatory Temperature Dataset 1796-2002
– Butler CJ, García Suárez AM, Coughlin ADS, Morrell C 2005, Air temperatures at
Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, from 1796 to 2002, International Journal of
Climatology 25:1055-1079. (Table IV) {note: May-July 1828 & Jan-Jun 1830
linearly interpolated between same months of the previous year and the subsequent
year}
– http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.1148/pdf
• Armagh 2002-2017:
– http://climate.arm.ac.uk/scans/
• Global Temperature Dataset (Land )
– http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/auto/Global/Complete_TAVG_summary.txt

29
 Data Sources
Rainfall
• Island of Ireland Rainfall 1711-2016
– Murphy, C et al. (2017): A 305-year continuous monthly rainfall series for the Island of
Ireland (1711-2016). Climate of the Past Discussions, 14(1), 1-39
– Data:- https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.887593
CO2
• CO2 Emissions 1751-2014
– Data:- http://cdiac.ess-dive.lbl.gov/trends/emis/glo_2014.html
{note: 2015-2017 linear extrapolation from 2005-14}
Sunshine
• Sunshine 1880-2003 (Armagh)
– Data:- http://climate.arm.ac.uk/calibrated/sun/sun_mver_1880_2003.dat
{updated to 2017 from http://climate.arm.ac.uk/scans/}

Wind
• Monthly Gale Data 1796-2000
– Data:- http://climate.arm.ac.uk/calibrated/storm/monthly-diary
{updated to 2017 from the daily commentary searching for ‘gale’ but not ‘near gale’}
Humidity
• Humidity 1838-2008 (Armagh)
– Data:- http://climate.arm.ac.uk/calibrated/humidity/rham-tc-mon-1838-2008-head.dat
{updated to 2017 from http://climate.arm.ac.uk/scans/}

30