Running head: AGEING POPULATION 1

Japan’s Ageing Population: A Review of Literature

Oscar R. Vides
University of Texas at El Paso
Dr. Fourzan
RWS 1302
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Abstract

Japan is considered the world’s senior citizen. Decades of improving life expectancy and

declining birth rates have resulted in an ageing population. The demographic shift Japan is

experiencing is a threat to communities around Japan and is contributing to its crumbling

economy. With a need for labor for increasing job vacancies, Japan’s government is scrambling

to figure out how to deal with an ageing population. With policies aimed to boost fertility and a

push for job automation, Japan might be able survive. Many people from around the world don’t

see having an ageing population as a problem including most of the working class of Japan.

There just has been a lack of evidence that an ageing population is eminent and the measures

proposed to combat the issue have increased inequality and weakened the budget. The purpose of

this literary review is to define the situation of Japan. The evidence researched for an ageing

population will provide an inside look at how Japan has been affected by the situation both

positively and negatively.

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Japan’s Ageing Population: A Review of Literature

Japan’s people are among one of the longest living on earth. This is due to Japan’s great

advancement in medicine and lifestyle. After World War II, the world entered a baby boom

which lasted about three years. This is the generation that has brought much advancement in the

world and are now entering retirement and leaving the workforce. Due to Japan’s cramped

housing and overall mediocre living conditions, the citizens of Japan have not been motivated to

contribute to the nation’s fertility rate. Japan’s government has been scrambling to cope with this

issue and has implemented many policies to boost the fertility rate, but the many citizens of

Japan don’t believe an ageing population is an issue. Only about 47 percent of Japanese citizens

believe that an ageing population is a problem (Lutz, 2014). Japanese citizens have seen that the

issue on hand has only brought inequality towards the older generations and tension within

communities. The problem of an ageing population is an issue that needs further analyzing to see

if it is an issue or not and will be addressed with both point of views:

1. What is an ageing population?

2. Is an ageing population happening?

3. Are there consequences to having an ageing population?

4. What policies have been proposed to address the consequences of an ageing population in

countries around the world

An ageing population in Japan is a complicated issue that can be better understood only through

further research, and it is through this research that decisive actions can be then formulated.
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What is an ageing population?

An ageing population is an increasing median age in the population due to a mixture of

issues including low fertility rates and rising of life expectancy (Reynolds, 2017). There is no

doubt that all the countries in the world are getting older, but many of them are in different

stages than others that may or may not be threatening. Japan’s median age is about 46.3 years

and is steadily increasing due to low fertility rates and increased longevity (Lutz, 2014). An

ageing population can be both a positive and a negative for a society, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe

of Japan views this as a positive as it will be a great push for automation. Prime Minister Abe has

implemented nationwide automated factories for manufacturing and private hospitals have also

been implementing robots to assist the ageing population (Obi, Ishmatova, Iwasaki, 2013). The

technology known as ICT (information and communications technology) are being utilized and

implemented in Japanese hospitals and care homes to assist Japan’s elderly population with

different actions such as communicating and physical and mental activity. Japan’s elderly

population has also been active throughout their respective communities by taking on part time

jobs and being active to not be a burden as they are portrayed (United Nations, 2017). An elderly

Japanese man was interviewed in Cia Silver’s (2016) short documentary and was asked about

how he felt about the whole situation in Japan and how he was adapting. “Honestly, I believe this

issue is not as big as the government is making it out to be, our pensions are in question but we

have worked for that. I have actually taken on a part time job in the morning caring for plants, it

keeps me active and happy.” The elderly population understand the situation at hand and are

doing their part, but their working-class population have had their doubts. Approximately 47

percent of Japanese citizens believe that an ageing population is an issue (Botti, 2014). A student

survey constructed using an online service called “Survey Monkey” was conducted by O.R.
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Vides (Ageing Population, June 13, 2018) consisting of 30 participants between the ages of 16-

24. Participants were asked if they believed an ageing population will be an issue. Results

showed that sixty percent of participants believe it will not be an issue, while forty percent

believe it will. Since participants of this survey are currently attending school and aged between

16-24, the results indicate that younger generations have doubt that an ageing population is an

issue. This doubt has come due to the fact that there is minimal evidence suggesting that an

ageing population is a negative and the policies implemented by the Japanese government

increase inequality and weaken the budget (Spies-Butcher, 2011). Japan has also been known for

high suicides rates due to horrible working hours and the Japanese government has responded by

curbing working hours. Although this may look like a positive, companies have a written-in

overtime allowance, which means workers can work up to 40 hours overtime. Due to Japan

having a high cost of living, many of these workers can’t afford to give up overtime and work up

to 60 hours a week (Tinker, 2002). This puts a great strain on Japanese citizens, in many cases,

sadly leads to suicide. With horrible working hours and cramped lifestyle, the working-class of

Japan are not motivated to repopulate.

Is an ageing population happening in Japan?

Statistically, an ageing population is happening. Japan’s population of 127 million is

predicted to shrink by about one-third by 2050 (United Nations, 2017). The proportion of

citizens 65 years old or over currently take up about a quarter of the whole population and is

expected to reach 40 percent by 2050 as well as shown in Figure 1.

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Figure 1: Japanese population and age structure, 1950-2050

Source: Beauchamp, Z. (2016, April 13). Japan's demographic time bomb, in one chart.

Retrieved from https://www.vox.com/2016/4/13/11421162/japan-oecd-chart

This will bring a great need for health-care for this ageing population and the working-

class generation will be forced to take care of their ageing family instead of working (Botti,

2014). Employer’s will see a great dip in available employees and will struggle to fill vacancies.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has aimed to keep Japan’s population over 100 million and has

implemented policies to curb the excessive working hours and provide more care facilities for

children and the aged (Reynolds, 2017). These facilities will be vital for the working class for

citizens to know that they will be able to work and have facilities not only take care of their

children, but also their aged family members. However, all these claims are assumptions as Lutz

(2014) states. Lutz (2014) sees an ageing population as a positive with statistics showing as an
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example that Ethiopia has a median age of 18 and is facing poverty, Japan has a median age of

46 and is one of the richest countries in the world. Researchers ague that two of the main reasons

people fear an ageing population are the psychological and economic aspects (Tinker, 2002).

People believe that an ageing population will become frail and vulnerable and the economy will

fail due to the dependency ratio (Lutz, 2014). The dependency ratio means that people 65 or

younger contribute to society by working while those over are a burden. This is an inaccurate

representation of a society based on Tinker’s (2014) work since people now more than ever are

working over the age of 65. The issue is that society has perceived the age of 65 to be the age

that one becomes a burden and retire. This has become increasingly false and the Japanese

government needs to realize this.

Are there consequences to having an ageing population?

An ageing population has the potential to bring both positive and negative impacts on a

country experiencing this issue. Depending on how the Japanese government decides to handle

the issue of an ageing population, it can bring dire or good implications for Japan’s finances,

politics, and the overall social mind. Since Japan’s elderly population is approximately forty

percent, citizens 65 or older have the power over other generations in who they can elect (Botti,

2014). Japanese politicians have had a hard time trying to get the working-class vote since many

of those politicians who try to cut pension and other benefits for citizens over 65 have failed and

those politicians who favor the aged come out on top. Without being able to make these budget

cuts, Japan has been forced to push the national pension scheme to invest in risky assets in a bid

to improve returns (Reynolds, 2017). With these risky assets, Japan is faced with a starving

economy. Over several decades, the working-class has been getting smaller and smaller, so Japan

will eventually have to cope with a small work force and Japanese citizens will be expected to
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take on the same load of work with fewer workers. Japan will also face many social implications

with the working-class feeling neglected and forced to work for their elderly population (Tinker,

2002). This will bring much conflict in communities and Japan’s working generation will see the

aged as a burden. There will be a great segregation of the country and could lead to many

potential protests (Tinker, 2002). If the Japanese government can’t make the correct budget cuts

in elderly pensions, Japan will be working not to improve but just to stay alive. On the other

hand, part of the difficulty of knowing the consequences of an ageing population is modeling the

potential impacts. The statistics given about how an ageing population will affect Japan’s

economy are estimates themselves and have changed considerably over the years. An example of

this is illustrated with a 2002 report claiming that Japan’s GDP would lose five percent by 2040,

and a more recent report in 2010 has it down to less than two percent (Spies-Butcher, 2011). Due

to Japan knowing their work force will be significantly smaller, education plays a major role in

how a society will survive. Japan is fourth best in education and economically and other

countries’ economies with no worry about an ageing population have worse economies (Lutz,

2014). Knowing how important education is, Japan’s working class will be maintained with less

workers by being well educated. Japan has had history in switching exports such as going from

manufacturing metal in the past to cars today and with this experience, Japan will have no issue

with a switch to keep their economy thriving (Spies-Butcher, 2011). Depending on how Japan

reacts to these changes involved with an ageing population, the consequences could lead Japan to

a new identity.

What policies have been proposed to address the issue of an ageing population in Japan?

The policies that the Japanese government have proposed for the consequences of an

ageing population are to curb the excessive working hours and introduce more care facilities for
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children and the aged. Although these all seem like positive solutions to the issue, not enough

care facilities are being implemented for the major wave of citizens going into retirement (Silver,

2016). The number of citizens needing care in the upcoming years will be too much for Japan to

handle and will need help from their respective families. According to the student survey

conducted by O.R. Vides (Ageing Population, June 13, 2018), 30 participants were asked if it

was the government’s responsibility to care for their aged family members or if it was the

family’s responsibility (Figure 2). Interestingly, the surveyors showed that sixty-three percent

responded that it was the family’s responsibility while only thirty-seven percent responded with

government.

Figure 2. Do you believe it is the governments responsibility for the aged of family?

Policies such as curbing excessive working hours are meant to be useful, but the working-class

Japanese citizens are unable to take a rest from working due to the high cost of living in Japan

and the high taxes. If Japan’s goal is to raise the nations fertility rate, then policies affecting

taxes and living cost are the solution. Japan has also implemented a new long-term insurance

program which has been a positive for the aged. Ms. Shimamura, a Japanese citizen who worked

until the age of 85, is one of the few aged citizens with Japan’s new long-term-care (Nakao,
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2017). She now lives comfortably without burdening society and her three children. With the

fear of a decreasing work force, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has introduced a program called

Revival which will include more women in the workplace (Nakao, 2017). This program will

focus on new medical technologies including regenerative medicine and cell therapy in the hopes

of saving money on future health costs. Japan has been known for its advancement in technology

and one of the best examples are its robots. A robotic seal called Paro was invented by Takanori

Shibata for various reasons such as to reduce anxiety, stress, depression and even with patients

going through pain with medical procedures (Nakao, 2017). These robotic advancements will

help Japan further its research on robotic assistance for the aged and help the future working-

class. These policies implemented for the issue of an ageing population are far from perfect but

depending on how the Japanese government and its citizens view these polices it could lead

Japan into becoming a good or bad example for the issue.

Conclusion

The issue of an ageing population in Japan has the country split. The severity of an

ageing population was analyzed by its current and future state by analyzing statistics of a

declining population due to low fertility rates, high suicide rates and longevity. It was also

analyzed by the actions taken by the Japanese citizens and government to cope with the issue.

This literature review has analyzed plenty of data and has answered the questions concerning the

issue of an ageing population. Further research is needed since this issue is fresh and one that

only Japan is experiencing. The issue is ever changing and is one that the world should keep a

close eye on. The issue of an ageing population is one that is surely happening but needs the

support of its citizens and correct government support for the nation to be able to go in the right

direction.
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References

Botti, D. (2014, January 31). How an ageing population will change the world. Retrieved June 5,

2018, from https://www.bbc.com/news/av/magazine-25968269/how-an-ageing

population-will-change-the-world

Lutz, W. (2014, August 01). The Truth About Aging Populations. Retrieved June 5, 2018, from

https://hbr.org/2014/01/the-truth-about-aging-populations

Nakao, Y. (2017, November 12). Bold steps: Japan's remedy for a rapidly aging society.

Retrieved June 4, 2018, from https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe

investor/retirement/retire-planning/how-japan-is-coping-with-a-rapidly-aging

population/article27259703/

Obi, T., Ishmatova, D., & Iwasaki, N. (2013). Promoting ICT innovations for the ageing

population in Japan. In International Journal of Medical Informatics (Vol. 82, Ser. 4, pp.

247-E62). Japan. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijmedinf.2012.05.004

Reynolds, I. (2017, April 25). Japan's Shrinking Population. Retrieved May 20, 2018, from

https://www.bloomberg.com/quicktake/japan-s-shrinking-population

Silver, C. (2016, September 02). How Is Japan Dealing with Its Rapidly Ageing Population?

Retrieved May 21, 2018, from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wF14TCrMN2Q

Spies-Butcher, B. (2011, April 26). The Myth of the Ageing 'Crisis'. Retrieved June 4, 2018,

from http://theconversation.com/the-myth-of-the-ageing-crisis-168

Tinker, A. (2002). The social implications of an ageing population. In Mechanisms of Ageing

and Development (Vol. 123, Ser. 7, pp. 729-735). London, UK: Age Concern Institute of

Gerontology. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0047-6374(01)00418-3
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United Nations. (2017). Ageing. Retrieved June 5, 2018, from http://www.un.org/en/sections/

issues-depth/ageing/