UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL

“PEDRO RUIZ GALLO”

FACULT
FACULTAD
AD DE INGENIERIA
INGENI ERIA MECANICA
MECAN ICA Y ELECTRICA

CURSO
CENTRALES ELECTRICAS I

CATEDRATICO
ING. JORGE H. NAVARRO RODRIGUEZ

 TEMA
PRONOSTICO DE MERCADO ELECTRICO A LARGO
PLAZO DEL DISTRITO DE ILLIMO

DATOS
DATOS PERSONALES
FECHA
ELMER CALLE CHOJEDA
100107-B 13/10/14 2014-I

Contenido
1. INTR
INTROD
ODUC
UCCI
CION
ON..-......................................
..............................................................................
....................................................
............ 2
1.1.
1.1. DESC
DESCRI
RIPC
PCIO
ION
N DEL
DEL DIST
DISTRI
RITO
TO.-
.-.................................................................2
2. PRONOS
PRONOSTIC
TICO
O DE MERCA
MERCADO
DO ELECT
ELECTRIC
RICO
O.......................................................4
2.1.
2.1. PRON
PRONOS
OSTI
TICO
CO DE POBL
POBLAC
ACIO
ION
N.................................................................4
 2.2. PRONOSTICO DE VIVIENDAS...................................................................
2.3. PRONOSTICO NUMERO DE ABONADOS DOMESTICOS............................
2.4. PRONOSTICO NÚMERO DE ABONADOS COMERCIALES...........................!
2.5. PRONOSTICO DE CONSUMO DOMESTICO Y ALUMBRADO PUBLICO........!
2.6. PRONOSTICO DE CONSUMO COMERCIAL................................................7
2.7 PRONOSTICO DE CONSUMO INDUSTRIAL..............................................7
2.8 PRONOSTICO DE ENERGIA DISTRIBUIDA ................................................"
2.9 PRONOSTICO DE MAIMA DEMANDA....................................................."

PRONOSTICO DE MERCADO ELECTRICO DE LARGO

PLAZO PARA EL DISTRITO DE ILLIMO

1. INTRODUCCION.-
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 1.1. DESCRIPCION DEL DISTRITO.-
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E&'#$ +'#+% !+,(!$% 0$0,(0+% (! ,+$#,+.
L(% &%'',+&$% ,+& !(% $ ,$&'( $! 0%'#'+ %+&> ,$&'#+ 0$ %(!0 $& I!!+
 "+%'( $0,( $& $! ,(%$#=+ 0$ C#++ &%'',+&$% $0,('?(% 2 "#(#(%
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',&,+ ")!,+ 1 &%'''+ ',&,+ "(#',!(#.

2. PRONOSTICO DE MERCADO ELECTRICO

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I!!+ $ 0%'#)$ $&$#=( ( !+% 0%'#'+% 0$ I!!+ P(,+#( ((&,( T<,$
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%$& % #$,+##0+ (,( $! 0%'#'+ 0$ M+'"$ 0+&0$ %$ $&,$&'#( ),(0( !(
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E! %%'$( 0$ 0%'#),/& $% '$'#(!(# 38J22V $& )(*( '$&%/&.

2.1. PRONOSTICO DE POBLACION

E& !( %$&'$ '()!( %$ $%'#( !+% 0('+% 0$ "+)!(,/& 0$ !+% ,('#+ <!'+
,$&%+% &(,+&(!$% #$(!(0+% "+# $! INEI.

CENSO POB '(%(

1972 346
1981 3693 .93K
1993 4416 1.51K
27 4699 .445K

L( '(%( $& $! (+ 1981 "(%( $! 1K "$#+ 0$%"% 0$,#$,$ ( (% 0$ !( '(0. L(
)(*( 0$ !( '(%( 0$ ,#$,$&'+ %$ 0$)$ ( $ !(% "$#%+&(% */?$&$% 0$! 0%'#'+
$#(& (,( !( ,("'(! 0$ !( "#+?&,( :L()($$;  (,( !( ,("'(! 0$ !(
#$/& :C,!(+; "+# +'?+ 0$ '#()(*+  0$ $%'0+% ( $ $! 0%'#'+ &+
+F#$,$ ,+ (! #$%"$,'+ "(#'$ 0$ !(% "$#%+&(% '()& $#(& (,( !(
,0(0 0$ L(.
E& !+% <!'+% (+% !( $#(,/& ($&'+ % "+# $%+ '+(#$+% ,++ '(%(
0$ ,#$,$&'+ "(#( $! "#+&/%',+ !( 0$! <!'+ ,$&%+ $ $% .445K

2.2. PRONOSTICO DE VIVIENDAS

E& $! %$&'$ ,(0#+ %$ $%'#( $! &<$#+ 0$ ??$&0(% 0$ !+% <!'+% ,('#+
,$&%+% &(,+&(!$%  % =&0,$ 0$ ()'(&'$% "+# ??$&0(.

CENSO VIV I@V  

1972 715 4.764
1981 777 4.753
1993 983 4.492
27 1275 3.685

E! I@V ( 0%&0+ ,$&%+ '#(% ,$&%+ 0$)0+ "#&,"(!$&'$ ( !( 0%&,/&

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$&,+&(+%. N$%'#+ I@V # 0%&$&0+ (+ '#(% (+ "(#( (,$#,(# (! 0$
,(0( ,$&%+. E& !+% (+% 1997  1998 $! I@V ($&'+ 0$)0+ (! F$&/$&+ 0$!
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2.3. PRONOSTICO NUMERO DE ABONADOS DOMESTICOS

R$,#+% ( !( $"#$%( ,+&,$%+&(#( 0$ 0%'#),/& ELECTRONORTE SAC.
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PERDIDAS MD
 AO AD AC AI CDAP CC CI :"; :M;
1862 1377 5539
2 724 2 1 78 5 7 13.57K .37
2576 412 5617
21 751 21 1 75 5 6 11.43K .324
2651 685
22 8 23  68 9  1.63K .354
3318 9157
23 878 31  48 9  9.99K .35
3427 9536
24 895 38  42 8  9.8K .32
25 924 21  3762 8727  9.25K .327
 76 4
3982 948
26 981 2 1 51 8  9.58K .361
5164 1242 5653
27 15 22 1 82 46 4 9.66K .367
5531 1373 5689
28 127 22 1 24 66 3 9.43K .39
629 127 7728
29 111 17 2 49 52 3 9.42K .432
6834 1229 9189
21 1132 17 2 62 38 2 9.46K .451
7383 1315 964
211 116 18 2 88 88 8 9.35K .491
7572 1582 121
212 1172 25 2 59 74 2 9.63K .523
82 164 152
213 128 33 2 77 12 38 9.23K .544

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0; E! ,.$ ($&'(#( 0$%0$ $! 214 (! 218 #(0(!$&'$ (%'( .95  
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.98

2.4. PRONOSTICO NÚMERO DE ABONADOS COMERCIALES

 A&(!(+% $! =&0,$ 0$ ()+&(0+% ,+$#,(!$%>
(; N+'(+% $ &$%'#+ IAC $% (!'+ $& (!&+% (+% "(%( !+% 65 $%  
(!'+ "(#( & "$$+ ,$&'#+ $ 0$)$#=( $%'(# $&'#$ 1  2.
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0; L$+ "#+,$0$+% ( "#+&+%',(# $! &<$#+ 0$ ()+&(0+% ,+& !( F+#!(
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 2.5. PRONOSTICO DE CONSUMO DOMESTICO Y
 ALUMBRADO PUBLICO
 A&(!(+% $! ,+&%+ &'(#+ 0+%',+  (!)#(0+ "<)!,+ $& $! %$&'$
#(,+ +)%$#?(+% !(% ,#?(% 0$! CUDAP %'/#,+  !(% '$/#,(% "(#( &(
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(; I!!+ &+ ,$&'( ,+& #$,#%+% &$#(!$% "(#( "+0$# $H"!+'(# % "#&,"(!
(,'?0(0 $,+&/,( $% !( (#,!'#( $ &+ '$&$ "#+#((% $ ?((&
( $*+#(#!( % '#%+ $% )(*+  '$&$ &#$%+% $,+&/,+% =&+% "+# 
$%'+.
); I!!+ $% ('#(?$%(0+ "+# !( ,(##$'$#( (#&(! Q$#&(&0+ B$!(&0$ T$## 
  "+# $!!+ '$&$ !( "+%)!0(0 0$ ($&'(# % ,+$#,+ (0$% $! PEOT 
$&$#(# "$%'+% 0$ '#()(*+  !+% "+)!(0+#$% 0$ !(% !+,(!0(0$%
,$#,(&(% ( %'$ :,++ I!!+; %$#& % )$&$,(0(%.
,; N+'(+% $ !( ,#?( 0$ CUDAP %+)#$"(%( !( ,#?( 0$ CUDAP' "(#(
!+,(!0(0 %& 0$%(##+!!+ "$#+ $%' "+# 0$)(*+ 0$ !( CUDAP' "(#(
!+,(!0(0 ,+& 0$%(##+!!+.
0; L( ,#?( 0$ CUDAP %$ ($&'(&0+  $& $! (+ 21 !!$( ,$#,( 0$
!( ,#?( 0$ CUDAP' CJD
$; P(#( $! "#+&/%',+ '+(#$+% !+% ?(!+#$% "(#( &( !+,(!0(0 ,+&
0$%(##+!!+.
F; L( ,#?( # (%,$&0$&0+ 0$ (&$#( (0$,(0( (%'( $! 218 $ $% $!
(+ $& $! ,(! %$ '$#&(#& 0$ (,$&'(# !(% $*+#(% "+# $! 0$%(##+!!+
0$! PEOT.
; A "(#'# 0$! 219 !( ,#?( '+(# ?(!+#$% 0$ !( ,#?( CUDAP' CJD.

2.6. PRONOSTICO DE CONSUMO COMERCIAL

 A&(!(&0+ $! =&0,$ 0$ ,+&%+ ,+$#,(!>
 (; N+'(+% $ &$%'#+ ICC !!$( (%'( 12.59 $! (+ 29 & "+,+ $!$?(0+
 "(#( &( "$$( !+,(!0(0 $ 0$)$#=( $%'(# $&'#$ .8  5.
); P(#( $! (+ 0$ #$F$#$&,( &$%'#+ ICC $% (! ( 7.5
,; P(#( !+% '#$% "#$#+% (+% 0$ "#+&+%',+ !+ $%'()!$,$+% $& 7.5
0; D$! (+ 217 (! 223 #( 0%&$&0+ #(0(!$&'$.
$; A "(#'# 0$! (+ 224 (%'( $! &(! 0$! "#+&/%',+ %$ (&'$&0#
,+&%'(&'$ $& 5.

2.7 PRONOSTICO DE CONSUMO INDUSTRIAL

T$&$+% 0('+% (! (+ 2 $H%'$ & %+!+ ,!$&'$ &0%'#(! $ 0$%("(#$,$ $&
$! (+ 22 (! (+ 27 %$ &,+#"+#( ( &$%'#+ $#,(0+ & &$?+ ,!$&'$
&0%'#(!  (! (+ 29 %$ %( +'#+ %.
(; A! (+ 2 &$%'#+  $% (! ( .28  0%&$ ( .19 (! (+
%$&'$ "(#( ?+!?$#%$ ,$#+ (+% "+%'$#+#$%.
); A! (+ 27 $!  ?$!?$ ( '+(# ?(!+# "$#+ $%'( ?$ (! ( .9
,; D$%0$ $! 27 (%'( $! (+ 0$ #$F$#$&,( &$%'#+  $%'( $&'#$ .9  
.11
0; P(#( &$%'#+ "#+&/%',+ $%'()!$,$+% $!  $& .11 "(#( !+% "#$#+%
,&,+ (+% $& !+% ,(!$% &+ ()# &&<& &#$%+ 0$ & &$?+ ,!$&'$
&0%'#(!.
$; N$%'#+  ($&'( ( .13 ( "(#'# 0$! (+ 219 $%'+ 0$)0+ ( $ $%
 "+%)!$ $ %$ &'$#$& (!&+% &$?+% ,!$&'$% &0%'#(!$% ,++
+!&+%  +'#+ '"+ 0$ &0%'#( 0$0,(0( ( !( "#$"(#(,/& 0$ "#+0,'+%
0$)0+ ( !+% ,()+%  0$(&0(% $ '#($# $! PEOT  %$ (&'$&$
,+&%'(&'$ (%'( $! &(! 0$! "#+&/%',+.

2.8 PRONOSTICO DE ENERGIA DISTRIBUIDA

P(#( (,$# $! "#+&/%',+ 0$ $&$#=( 0%'#)0( (0$% 0$ ()$# "#+&+%',(0+
!( $&$#=( '+'(! ?$&00( &$,$%'(+% "#+&+%',(# !( $&$#=( "$#00(  "(#( $!!+
&$,$%'(+% 0('+% %'/#,+% 0$ !( $&$#=( "$#00(.
P(#( $!!+ %+!,'(+% ( !( ,+&,$%+&(#( 0$ 0%'#),/& $ $& $%'$ ,(%+ $% !(
$"#$%( ELECTRONORTE SAC. $ &+% )#&0$& $%+% 0('+%.

 AO P
2 .1357
21 .1143
22 .163
23 .999
24 .98
25 .925
26 .958
27 .966
28 .943
 29 .942
21 .946
211 .935
212 .963
213 .923

V$+% $ !(% "#00(% "(#( ($!!+% (+% %+& "+,(%  %$#& ($&+#(&0+.
(; P(#( $! (+ 0$ #$F$#$&,( '$&$+% "#00(% (! (! 9.23K "(#( !+% (+%
0$ "#+&/%',+% !+ $%'()!$,$#$+% $& 9K "(#( !+% "#$#+% 0$ (+%.
);  "(#( !+% %$&'$% 0$ (+% !+ 0$*(+% $& 8.5K
,;  "#+&+%',(+% !( $&$#=( 0%'#)0(

2. PRONOSTICO DE MA!IMA DEMANDA

T$&$+% 0('+% %'/#,+% 0$ H( 0$(&0( 0$%0$ $! 2 (%'( $! 213.
L( '()!( 0$ H( 0$(&0(  F(,'+# 0$ ,(#( $% !( %$&'$.

 AO MD :M; Q.C

2 .37 .11
21 .324 .14
22 .354 .12
23 .35 .17
24 .32 .17
25 .327 .18
26 .361 .17
27 .367 .24
28 .39 .24
29 .432 .24
21 .451 .25
211 .491 .25
212 .523 .24
213 .544 .25

(; $! F, %$ (&'$&0# $& .25 (%'( $! 218

); ( "(#'# 0$! 219 $! F, ($&'(# ( .28 0$)0+ (! &#$%+ 0$ ,!$&'$%
&0%'#(!$% ( &$%'#+ $#,(0+  %$ (&'$&0# $& $%$ ?(!+# (%'( $!
&(! 0$! "#+&/%',+.

O)'$&$&0+ &(!$&'$ $! %$&'$ ,(0#+ 0$ "#+&/%',+>

MD
 AO AD AC CDAP CC CI ED :M;
 8394 17987 11212
214 1222 35 4 2  1233222 .563
86648 18567 11573
215 1238 35 9 6 8 127314 .581
88654 18997 11841
216 1249 36 4 4 7 132478 .595
917 18474 1249
217 1265 36 5 3 9 1325383 .65
928 17626 1267
218 1272 36 6 9 8 132735 .66
9335 1834 14439
219 128 39 3 5 1 136847 .558
93822 18451 14595
22 1289 43 3 7 6 138288 .564
94615 18923 1476
221 1297 47 5 1  1398455 .57
95414 2228 1533
222 136 52 9  6 1424372 .581
9622 2181 15343
223 1314 58 4  9 145378 .593
9732 24258 15767
224 1323 66 2 1 7 14878 .66
9785 24462 159
225 1331 67 4 6 7 1499618 .611
98674 24668 1634
226 134 67 8 7 7 1512254 .617
9955 24876 16169
227 1349 67 7 4 7 1524987 .622
134 2585 1635
228 1358 68 3 8 7 1537819 .627
1118 25296 16442
229 1366 68 68 7 9 155751 .632
123 2559 16581
23 1375 69 72 3  1563783 .638
1289 25723 1672
231 1384 69 41 5 3 1576916 .643
1375 25939 1686
232 1393 7 77 4 6 159151 .648
1462 26157 172
233 142 7 79   163488 .654