CMIP5 downscaled climate fact sheet

Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning

July 04, 2018

Overview
Note that the text and values shown here are placeholders for the final reactive reporting template as it is
being developed. The current content is not intended to be meaningful or accurate. . .
Mean temperature climate model outputs are shown for the period 2006 through 2099. Across all the data,
in this time the annual mean temperature per year is projected to increase from an average of 0.2 degrees
Celcius across Alaska/western Canada during the first ten years to an average of 4.8 degrees Celcius per year
during the final ten years of the period. This change of 4.6 degrees Celcius across Alaska/western Canada
represents a 2300 percent gain in mean temperature. These results are based on the RCP 4.5 emissions
scenario and one climate model: GFDL-CM3.

Full period and decadal summary tables

Table 1 shows an overview of the data included in this report. The mean and standard deviation as well as
the median and the 95th percentile for regional annual average daily mean temperature are shown averaged
over the period 2006 - 2099.

Table 1: 2006 - 2099 statistical summary of the spatial mean

temperature distribution.

Region Season Mean SD Median 95th Percentile

AK-CAN annual 3.2 12 4.7 20

Spatially explcit data

The SNAP Analytics application used to produce this report (Climate Analytics) works with spatially explicit
climate data sets. For this reason, spatial probability distributions of mean temperature and the statistics
used to summarize them are available for analysis even for single time slices of one year. As an example,
Table 2 below shows the same summary statistics as Table 1 for just the year 2099. In this case, there is no
averaging over time and the distributional information pertains strictly to estimated probability densities
across Alaska/western Canada.

Table 2: 2099 spatial mean temperature statistical summary.

Region Season Year Mean SD Median 95th Percentile

AK-CAN annual 2099 4.5 11.3 5.3 22.7

Table 3 shows a similar overview of the data like shown in Table 1 but disaggregated by decade. The 2000s
and 2090s are selected for brevity.

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 Table 3: 2006 - 2099 statistical summary of spatial mean tempera-
ture distributions.

Region Season Decade Mean SD Median 95th Percentile

AK-CAN annual 2000s 0.2 11.5 2.3 15.2
AK-CAN annual 2090s 4.8 11.5 6.2 21.3

Aggregated data

Focusing on an fully aggregated view of the data, Table 4 and Table 5 show statistical results based on annual
and decadal resolution climate outputs, respectively. The statistics in Table 4 based on annual observations
pertain to the entire time period whereas Table 5 for shows some statistics summarizing change over the
entire period from the 2000s through the 2090s and others that focus on other points of inter-decadal change.
While all data and results in this report are generated by SNAP’s automated analytics, these results are
further tailored to the data analyzed by the Climate Analytics app based specifically on user selections and
graphing preferences during an interactive online session. See the plots further below, which correspond to
the same choices of grouping variables as found in the Table 4 and Table 5 entries (e.g., coloring and faceting
of plots by categorical variables, if applicable).

Table 4: Statistical summary of the 2006 - 2099 spatial mean

temperature distribution.

Mean Min Max Median IQR SD

3.2 -35.8 28.8 4.7 -6.7 - 13.4 12

Table 5 shows the minimum and maximum decadal means during the period, the greatest loss and gain
between consecutive decades, and the overall change.

Table 5: Summary of decadal change for the same period. Statis-

tics are based on spatial means. See Figure 3 for distributional
summaries.

Min Max Min Gain Max gain Total change

0.2 4.8 -0.3 1.4 4.7

Plots
Plots below provide insight into the mean temperature climate model output across time and space.

Annual time series

The time series plot in Figure 1 shows annual means for the period 2006 - 2099.

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 6 y^temperat ure = − 93.3 + 0.047 Y ear R 2 = 0.47
Mean temperature ( ° C )

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Figure 1: Annual mean temperature means with regression model.

Full period probability density

Pooling data through time as well as space in Figure 2, a annual mean temperature probability density curve
is shown for Alaska/western Canada from 2006 - 2099.

Decadal time series

The decadal series plot in Figure 3 shows distributional information for annual mean temperature across
both the individual years within each decade and the spatially explcit downscaled outputs spread across
Alaska/western Canada.

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 0.03
2006 − 2099 density

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Mean temperature ( ° C )

Figure 2: Mean temperature spatial-temporal distributions.

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Mean temperature ( ° C )

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Figure 3: Decadal mean temperature box plots with spatial samples overlay.

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About SNAP Analytics
This report is dynamically generated by the SNAP Analytics platform, a framework for allowing scientists,
analysts, researchers and the public to interact seamlessly with large data sets online in real-time in order
to drill down to the precise data of interest, explore scenarios, run simulations, fit statistical models and
generate results, tables and graphs in the browser for their customized analyses.
The framework is built upon the R programming language and the R Shiny framework for web applications.
The SNAP Analytics platform consists of a suite of web applications for data analysis. Among the many
features offered is the ability to download dynamically generated reports like this one on demand from a live
online user session. This report was produced by SNAP’s Climate Analytics app.
[Reporting template under development]