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LECTURE / DISCUSSION
Simultaneous Equations
Simultaneous Equations
Example 1
Gas
consumption
OLS estimate
. .
. true
. . .
. .
. . .
. .
. .
. . .
Thermostat
. setting
Example 2
MOU
OLS
.
.
.
.
.
.
. . .
.
. true
. Price
Demand
Example 3
Demand: Q = " + $P + g
Supply: P = 8 + 2Q + µ
Endogenous: M, P
Exogenous: R, N
M = a + bR + cN + e
P = d + fR + gN + u
Get M̂ , P̂
M ' % P̂ % N % g(
P ' % M̂ % R % µ (
Or apply IV directly.
Regress M = " + $P + 2N + g
with instruments N and R
and P = 8 + NM + 0R + µ
with instruments N and R .
TSP commands:
Reduced-Form Equation
M = " + $P + 2N + g
P = 8 + NM + 0R + µ
Reduced-form
equations: endogenous variables expressed as a
function of exogenous variables.
M ' % ( % M % R % µ) % N % g
M ' % % M % R % N % µ % g
(1 & )M ' % % R % N % µ % g
% µ % g
M ' % R % N %
1& 1& 1& 1&
| | | |
| | | |
M= a + bR + cN + e
Similarly,
% g % µ
P ' % R % N %
1& 1& 1& 1&
| | | |
| | | |
P= d + fR + gN + u
For example:
c '
1&
M = " + $P + 2N + g
P = 8 + NM + 0R + µ
N rises by 1 unit:
M increases by 2
P increases by N2
M increases by $[N2]
P increases by N[$N2] = $N22
M increases by $[$N22] = $2N22
P increases by N[$2N22] = $2N32
M increases by $[$2N32] = $3N32
.
.
.
Total effect on M
4
% % ( ) 2
% ( ) 3
% ... ' j ( )t
t'0
'
1&
Total effect on P
% 2
% 2 3
' % ( ) % ( )2
4
' j( )t '
t'0 1&
% %
a ' d '
1& 1&
b ' f '
1& 1&
c ' g '
1& 1&
b g
' ' etc.
f c
Example:
if â ' 4 d̂ ' 8
b̂ ' 3 f̂ ' 2
ĉ ' 7 ĝ ' 3.5
Reduced-form equations:
M = a + bN + cI + dR + e
P = f + gN + hI + RR + u
8 reduced-form parameters
M ' % P % g
P ' % M % R % µ
5 structural parameters
Reduced-form equations
M = a + bR + e
P = c + dR + u
4 reduced-form parameters
Step 2: M ' % P̂ % g
P ' % M̂ % R % µ
' % â % b̂R % R % µ
' ( % â) % ( b̂ % )R % µ
Identification
Efficiency
M ' % P % N % g
P ' % M % R % µ
g, µ correlated
M ' % P̂ % N % µ̂ % g((
P ' % M̂ % R % ĝ % µ ((
Special Case:
Seemingly Unrelated Equations
Yn ' % X n % gn
Wn ' % Sn % µ n