Safal Niveshak Stock Analysis Excel (Ver. 3.

www.safalniveshak.com

HOW TO USE THIS SPREADSHEET

Step 1 - This spreadsheet works only on Screener.in. The first step is to create a free account here - https://www.screener.in/re
Step 2 - After creating your account, while you are logged in to Screener.in website, visit this page - https://www.screener.in/ex
Step 3 - Visit the home page of Screener.in and choose a company of your choice. Once you do that, you will see details of you
financial statement table called "Quarterly Results" and click on "View Consolidated". Now, all data you see for this company wi

Step 4 - Scroll back to the top of the page, and you will see a button "Export to Excel" on the right side. Click the button and the
the exact format as "Safal Niveshak's Stock Analysis Excel Ver. 3.0". Now onwards, any excel you export for any company on S
Step 5 - Email me your love and testimonial for helping you with this excel. :-)

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
1. Ensure that the company whose data you are downloading has numbers at least starting from FY08 (March 2008). This is be
from, say, FY10, you will see incorrect data for FY08 and FY09 (which will be of Hero Motocorp on whose financials I have crea

2. All financial data of your chosen company will be automatically updated in the sheet you download, except "Cash and Bank"
figures, which you must update manually from the company's annual reports. Don’t forget to make these changes as these num
3. You may update the sheet and add your own analysis, formulae etc. and then upload again to Screener.in site using the Step
"Data Sheet" because this will cause errors in your future downloads.
4. DON’T touch any cell except the black ones, where you are required to update the numbers manually from Annual Reports (j
the growth assumptions etc.
4. I have added Comments and Instructions wherever necessary so as to explain the concepts. Read those carefully before wo
5. This sheet is not a replacement of the work required to read annual reports as part of the analysis process. So please do tha
some discrepancy in numbers (though rare), but you will know this only when you read annual reports.
6. I could not find a bug/errors in this spreadsheet, but if you notice some, please email me at - vishal@safalniveshak.com - and
7. I will keep on updating the sheet from time to time and will update the same on the website. I invite you to share your feedba
together.
8. This excel won't work for banking and financial services companies.

Note: All data is sourced from Screener.in

 Safal Niveshak Stock
Analysis Excel (Ver. 3.0)
www.safalniveshak.com
Basic Company Details
Parameters
Company
Current Stock Price (Rs)
Face Value (Rs)
No. of Shares (Crore)
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore)
Key Financials - Trend
Parameters
Sales Growth (9-Year CAGR)
Profit Before Tax Growth (9-Year CAGR)
Net Profit Growth (8-Year CAGR)
Average Debt/Equity (5-Years, x)
Average Return on Equity (5-Years)
Average P/E (5-Years, x)
Latest P/E (x)
Warning! Excel can be a wonde
the past. But it can be a we
destruction to predict the future
of what you are getting into. He
always equal garba
Details
CMI LTD
229 Remember! Focus on decision
10.0 Look for disconfirming evidenc
1.5
344
Please! It's your money. Please
Details
results of this excel cause you
-17.0% designed this excel to aid your
-22.6% you alone are responsible for yo
-17.9% live peacefully ever after! I am
1.8 wants you to do the hard wo
35.4% companies on your own. But I'd
10.8 compass instead of a map, for
map with territory and lose it
13.3
 Excel can be a wonderful tool to analyze
past. But it can be a weapon of mass
on to predict the future! So be very careful
you are getting into. Here, garbage in will
always equal garbage out.

ber! Focus on decisions, not outcomes.

disconfirming evidence. Calculate. Pray!

t's your money. Please don't blame me if

of this excel cause you to lose it all! I've
d this excel to aid your own thinking, but
are responsible for your actions. I want to
acefully ever after! I am not a sadist who
you to do the hard work by analyzing
es on your own. But I'd rather give you a
ss instead of a map, for you can confuse
ith territory and lose it all. All the best!
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Parameter

Consumer monopoly or commodity?

Understand how business works

Is the company conservatively financed?

Are earnings strong and do they show an

upward trend?

Does the company stick with what it

knows?

Has the company been buying back its

shares?

Have retained earnings been invested

well?

Is the company’s return on equity above

average?

Is the company free to adjust prices to

inflation?
Does the company need to constantly
reinvest in capital?

Conclusion

Never Forget
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation

Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
makes the product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their
unique niche. However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with
traditionally high margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms.
Also look for strong growth in earnings and high return on equity in the past.

Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to
construct a quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing
those companies that operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can
increase the size of the circle, but only over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the
circle is to know its boundaries.

Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies
tend to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios.
Also seek companies that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.

Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding
earnings (profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe
balance sheets). To help indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years
earnings growth rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the
consistency in such growth. So exclude companies with volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average"
growth has been high.

Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within
its circle of competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company,
look at the company’s past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of
operations for the firm. Be cautious of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.

Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While
we do not screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in
place.

Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been
employed profitably. A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent
earnings and strong return on equity in the past.

Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity
without employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately
16%. Thus, seek companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.

That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above
(like high ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing
significant volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad
for an investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained
earnings must first go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to
maintain current operations, the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against
competitors will help a lot. Seek companies that consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.

Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait
for the folly of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble
understanding this philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and
follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks successfully.

Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.

 Balance Sheet
CMI LTD
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital 36 36 3 3 3 3 3 11 14 15
Reserves 498 746 -10 -2 -1 1 3 24 160 190
Borrowings 489 895 19 9 14 18 17 33 98 139
Other Liabilities 574 1,841 8 8 9 8 10 25 48 117
Total 1,597 3,517 19 18 24 29 33 94 321 461

Net Block 603 1,349 8 7 6 6 6 8 166 164

Capital Work in Progress 28 176 - - - - 0 - 7 5
Investments 5 55 0 0 0 0 0 - - -
Other Assets 961 1,938 12 11 18 24 27 86 148 292
Total 1,597 3,517 19 18 24 29 33 94 321 461

Working Capital 387 96 4 3 10 16 17 61 99 175

Debtors 329 613 6 4 6 10 14 37 51 141
Inventory 289 611 3 4 7 8 8 35 45 100
Cash & Bank** 276 343 353 456 594 906 1,892 1,933 4,887
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use Cash+Bank+Current Investments from Consolidated Balance Sheet in Annual Reports

Debtor Days 59 86 171 65 92 73 104 98 77 136

Inventory Turnover 7 4 5 6 3 6 6 4 5 4
Fixed Asset Turnover 3.4 1.9 1.6 3.5 3.7 9.1 8.2 16.5 1.4 2.3
Debt/Equity 0.9 1.1 -2.7 9.8 7.0 4.3 2.8 0.9 0.6 0.7
Return on Equity 33% 28% 862% 55% 52% 32% 18% 61% 15%
Return on Capital Employed 14% 7% -19% -22% 7% 8% 11% 15% 9% 14%
 Profit & Loss Account / Income Statement
CMI LTD
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Trailing
Sales 2,028 2,596 13 23 22 51 48 136 240 378 560
% Growth YOY 28% -100% 82% -3% 133% -6% 181% 77% 57%
Expenses 1,755 2,356 14 24 20 49 45 121 208 329 484
Material Cost (% of Sales) 57% 59% 73% 77% 0% 0% 0% 81% 82% 87% Check for wide fluctuations in key
Power and Fuel 2% 2% 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% expense items. For manufacturing
Other Mfr. Exp 5% 4% 6% 4% 84% 87% 87% 2% 2% 2% firms, check their material costs etc. For
Employee Cost 12% 13% 6% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% services firms, look at employee costs.
Selling and Admin Cost 8% 8% 2% 1% 3% 2% 3% 4% 2% 3%
Operating Profit 274 239 -1 -1 2 3 4 14 32 49 76
Operating Profit Margin 13% 9% -11% -6% 9% 5% 7% 11% 13% 13% 14%
Other Income 66 164 3 10 0 1 1 2 92 5 3
Other Income as % of Sales 3.3% 6.3% 25.6% 45.4% 1.8% 1.5% 1.1% 1.1% 38.2% 1.3% 0.5%
Depreciation 85 109 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10 10
Interest 29 38 0 0 0 0 1 6 9 21 29
Interest Coverage(Times) 9 8 32 17 3 8 3 3 13 2 2
Profit before tax (PBT) 226 256 1 8 1 2 2 9 114 23 39
% Growth YOY 13% -100% 734% -86% 94% -9% 373% 1143% -80%
PBT Margin 11% 10% 7% 34% 5% 4% 4% 7% 47% 6% 7%
Tax 51 35 - - 0 -0 - 3 8 -7 14
Net profit 175 221 1 8 1 2 2 6 106 30 26
% Growth YOY 26% -100% 734% -86% 99% -10% 226% 1582% -72%
Net Profit Margin 9% 9% 7% 34% 5% 4% 4% 5% 44% 8% 5%
EPS 49.2 62.2 3.0 25.0 - 6.9 6.2 5.5 75.3 20.3 17.2
% Growth YOY 26% -95% 734% -100% #DIV/0! -10% -11% 1268% -73%
Price to earning 0.4 0.2 19.6 3.1 9.6 13.3
Price 19 15 - - - - - 108 236 195 229
Dividend Payout 27.0% 27.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 4.9%
Market Cap 69 53 - - - - - 124 332 289
Retained Earnings 128 161 1 8 1 2 2 6 105 29
Buffett's $1 Test 0.5

TRENDS: 10 YEARS 7 YEARS 5 YEARS 3 YEARS

Sales Growth -17.0% 62.6% 76.4% 98.6%
PBT Growth -22.6% 57.8% 83.5% 127.2%
PBT Margin 13.5% 15.3% 13.6% 20.0%
Price to Earning 6.6 10.8 10.8 10.8

Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over
past 3 or 5 years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7
to 10 years) growth numbers.
 Common Size P&L
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost 57% 59% 73% 77% 0% 0% 0% 81% 82% 87%
Change in Inventory 2% -1% -5% 6% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 10%
Power and Fuel 2% 2% 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1%
Other Mfr. Exp 5% 4% 6% 4% 84% 87% 87% 2% 2% 2%
Employee Cost 12% 13% 6% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 3%
Selling and Admin Cost 8% 8% 2% 1% 3% 2% 3% 4% 2% 3%
Other Expenses 4% 5% 17% 24% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Operating Profit 9% 11% -1% -17% 9% 5% 7% 9% 9% -7%
Other Income 3% 6% 26% 45% 2% 2% 1% 1% 38% 1%
Depreciation 4% 4% 7% 3% 4% 2% 2% 1% 1% 3%
Interest 1% 1% 0% 2% 2% 1% 2% 4% 4% 5%
Profit Before Tax 11% 10% 7% 34% 5% 4% 4% 7% 47% 6%
Tax 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 3% -2%
Net Profit 9% 7% 7% 34% 5% 4% 4% 5% 44% 8%
Dividend Amount 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%

Common Size Balance Sheet

Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital 2% 1% 16% 18% 13% 11% 10% 12% 4% 3%
Reserves 31% 21% -51% -13% -5% 3% 9% 26% 50% 41%
Borrowings 31% 25% 96% 50% 57% 60% 51% 35% 31% 30%
Other Liabilities 36% 52% 39% 45% 35% 26% 30% 27% 15% 25%
Total Liabilities 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Block 38% 38% 39% 37% 24% 19% 18% 9% 52% 36%
Capital Work in Progress 2% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 1%
Investments 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other Assets 60% 55% 60% 62% 76% 81% 82% 91% 46% 63%
Total Assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Receivables 21% 17% 30% 23% 23% 35% 42% 39% 16% 31%
Inventory 18% 17% 13% 22% 31% 28% 23% 37% 14% 22%
Cash & Bank 6% 8% 6% 9% 10% 7% 6% 3% 2% 2%
 A common-size financial statement is displays line
items as a percentage of one selected or common
figure. Creating common-size financial statements
makes it easier to analyze a company over time and
compare it with its peers. Using common-size
financial statements helps investors spot trends that
a raw financial statement may not uncover.
 Cash Flow Statement
CMI LTD
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Total
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) 196 250 - - - - - -3 -4 6 445
Cash from Investing Activity -183 -366 - - - - - -4 -12 -22 -587
Cash from Financing Activity -18 295 - - - - - 8 18 18 321
Net Cash Flow -4 178 - - - - - 1 2 2 179
CFO/Sales 10% 10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -2% -2% 2%
CFO/Net Profit 112% 113% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -48% -4% 19%
Capex** 276 413 787 1075.8 1138.9 1412 1944.3 2245.2 2808.6
FCF 196 -26 -413 -787 -1,076 -1,139 -1,412 -1,947 -2,249 -2,803 -11,656
Average FCF (3 Years) -2,333
FCF/Sales 10% -1% -3285% -3443% -4868% -2216% -2926% -1434% -936% -742%
FCF/Net Profit 110% -15% ### ### ### ### ### ### -2122% -9321%

** Manually enter this number;

Convert to Rs Crore if not already
done in the Annual Reports; Use
"Capital expenditure" number
shown under "Cash Flow from
Investing Activities" segment of
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
available in the Annual Reports
 Earnings Power Value (Bruce Greenwald)
Read the book - Value Investing: From Graham to Buffett and Beyond by Bruce Greenwald (EPV is explained P
Explanation - Earnings power value (EPV) is a technique for valuing stocks by making an assumption about the sustainability
of capital but assuming no further growth. EPV formula = Adjusted Earnings / Cost of Capital

Company Name CMI LTD

Latest Year Ended Mar-17

Calculation of Normalized Earnings

(Rs Crore) Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Sales 51 48 136 240 378
EBIT 2 3 15 123 43
Less - Adjustment 0 0 0 1 0
EBIT (Adjusted) 2 3 15 122 43
EBIT Margin'(Adjusted) 5% 6% 11% 51% 11%
Tax Rate -1% 0% 31% 7% -33%
Earnings After Tax (Adjusted) 2 3 10 114 57
Depreciation 1 1 1 1 10
Maintenance Capex (See Table Below) 1,131 1,413 1,920 2,216 2,770
Earnings After Tax (Normalized, A) -1,127 -1,409 -1,908 -2,100 -2,702
Reported Profit After Tax (B) 2 2 6 106 30

EPV Process (as per Greenwald's book, slightly modified) -

1. Start with operating earnings, i.e. EBIT. Adjust any one-time charges. I deduct 0.5% of reported EBIT as this adjustment
2. Apply a tax rate to the adjusted EBIT. I use the actual tax rate calculated from the Income Statement. After reducing this tax,
3. Add back Depreciation
4. Subtract Maintenance Capex
5. After these four steps, you arrive at Normalized Earnings
6. Divide this Normalized Earnings number by the Discount Rate to arrive at EPV. I use 12% discount rate/cost of capital.
7. Note that Greenwald's process as per his book is slightly more detailed than what I have used here

Calculation of Maintenance Capex

(Rs Crore) Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Fixed Assets (PPE) 6 6 8 166 164
Net Sales 51 48 136 240 378
PPE/Sales 0.11 0.12 0.06 0.69 0.43
Change in Sales 29 -3 88 104 138
Total Capex 1,139 1,412 1,944 2,245 2,809
Growth Capex 8 -1 25 30 39
Maintenance Capex 1,131 1,413 1,920 2,216 2,770

Calculating Maintenance Capex, as per Greenwald's book -

1. Calculate the Average Gross Property Plant and Equipment (PPE) / Sales ratio over 5-7 years
2. Calculate current year’s increase in sales
3. Multiply PPE/Sales ratio by increase in sales to arrive at Growth Capex
4. Maintenance Capex = Total Capex figure from the cash flow statement minus Growth Capex calculated above
(Bruce Greenwald)
nd by Bruce Greenwald (EPV is explained Page 93 onwards)
king an assumption about the sustainability of current earnings and the cost
rmula = Adjusted Earnings / Cost of Capital

EPV with Different Cost of Capital

Discount Rate EPV Net Cash** Total EPV Per Share
10% ### 4,748 -22,276 -14,823
12% ### 4,748 -17,772 -11,826
15% ### 4,748 -13,268 -8,829
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 344
EPV as % of Market Cap -5163%

** Change the "Cash & Bank" number in "Balance Sheet" sheet

(Row #19) so that the correct number automatically reflects here

5% of reported EBIT as this adjustment

e Income Statement. After reducing this tax, we arrive at Adjusted Earnings After Tax

use 12% discount rate/cost of capital.

at I have used here

over 5-7 years

owth Capex calculated above

 Dhandho Intrinsic Value Calculation
Read the book - The Dhandho Investor by Mohnish Pabrai

CMI LTD CMI LTD

Dhandho IV - Lower Range Dhandho IV - Higher Range
Year FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth Year
0 Excess Cash (Latest) 4,887 Year 1-3 15% 0 Excess Cash (Latest)
1 FY18 (2,683) (2,396) Year 4-6 10% 1 FY18
2 FY19 (3,086) (2,460) Year 7-10 5% 2 FY19
3 FY20 (3,548) (2,526) Discount Rate 12% 3 FY20
4 FY21 (3,903) (2,481) 4 FY21
5 FY22 (4,294) (2,436) Last 5-Years' CAGR 5 FY22
6 FY23 (4,723) (2,393) Sales 76% 6 FY23
7 FY24 (4,959) (2,243) PBT 83% 7 FY24
8 FY25 (5,207) (2,103) FCF 21% 8 FY25
9 FY26 (5,467) (1,972) 9 FY26
10 FY27 (5,741) (1,848) 10 FY27
10 -57,407 (18,484) 10
Intrinsic Value (36,453) Intrinsic Value
Current Mkt. Cap. 344 Current Mkt. Cap.
Premium/(Discount) to IV -101% Premium/(Discount) to IV

Note: See explanation of this model here

P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as
starting number. This number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the his
this business while arriving at your assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of
Calculation
by Mohnish Pabrai

CMI LTD
Dhandho IV - Higher Range
FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth
Excess Cash (Latest) 4,887 Year 1-3 20%
(2,800) (2,500) Year 4-6 15%
(3,360) (2,678) Year 7-10 10%
(4,032) (2,870) Discount Rate 12%
(4,636) (2,946)
(5,332) (3,025)
(6,132) (3,106)
(6,745) (3,051)
(7,419) (2,997)
(8,161) (2,943)
(8,977) (2,890)
(134,659) (43,357)
Intrinsic Value (67,476)
Current Mkt. Cap. 344
Premium/(Discount) to IV -101%

ust use a normalized positive FCF as the

al year, without capex. Check the history of
sting the model to fit your version of reality.
 Ben Graham Formula (Low Range) Ben Graham Formula (High Range)
Company Name CMI LTD Company Name
Year Ended Mar/17 Year Ended

Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 29.3 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 7.0 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate 47.2 Long-Term Growth Rate

Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) 1,402 Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 344 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)

EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10

Ben Graham's Revised Formula: Value = [EPS x (8.5 + 2G) x 4.4] / Y

Here, 4.4 is what Graham determined to be his minimum required rate of return. At the time of around 1962 when Graham was

Note: I have used Graham's original formula in the above calculations

RVT: I have modified the formula to what is documented below
Value Research India Market Specific Formula from article in 2015
Value = [EPS x (no_growth_PE + 1G)*(5_year_FD_interest_rate)/(AAA rated corporate bond yield)

5 Year FD rate 7.5

AAA rated corporate bond yield 8.5
m Formula (High Range)
CMI LTD
Mar/17

29.3
7.0
94.5

2,623
344

g is the growth rate for the next 7-10 years

e of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this nu
e present, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
 Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
CMI LTD

Initial Cash Flow (Rs Cr) (2,333) (53,111)

344
Years 1-5 6-10 ###
FCF Growth Rate 15% 12%
Discount Rate 12%
Terminal Growth Rate 2%

Net Debt Level (Rs Cr) (4,748)

Year FCF Growth Present Value

1 (2,683) 15% (2,396)
2 (3,086) 15% (2,460)
3 (3,548) 15% (2,526)
4 (4,081) 15% (2,593)
5 (4,693) 15% (2,663)
6 (5,256) 12% (2,663)
7 (5,887) 12% (2,663)
8 (6,593) 12% (2,663)
9 (7,384) 12% (2,663)
10 (8,270) 12% (2,663)

Final Calculations
Terminal Year (8,436)
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows ###
Terminal Value ###
Total PV of Cash Flows (53,111)
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 344

Note: See explanation of DCF here

Valuation

DCF Value (As calculated in cell B29)

Current Market Cap
DCF as % of Current Mkt Cap
 Expected Returns Model
CMI LTD
Particulars Mar/08 Mar/09 Mar/06 Mar/07 Mar/08 Mar/09 Mar/10
Net Profit (Rs Crore) 178 176 1 8 1 2 2
Net Profit Margin 9% 7% 7% 34% 5% 4% 4%
Return on Equity 33% 28% 862% 55% 52% 32%

Calculations (Enter values only in black cells)

Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 12%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 93
Current P/E (x) 11.4
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20.0
Esti. Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 1,868
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 601
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 344

Note: See explanation of this model here

el
Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 CAGR (9-Yr) CAGR (5-Yr)
6 106 30 -18% 95%
5% 44% 8%
18% 61% 15%
 Intrinsic Value Range
CMI LTD
Lower Higher Remember! Give importance to a stock's valuations / fair v
EPV -17,772 ### - only "after" you have answered in "Yes" to these two quest
Dhandho -36,453 -67,476 ### ### (1) Is this business simple to be understood? and (2) Ca
Ben Graham 1,402 2,623 932.78 1,745.20 understand this business?
DCF -53,111 ### -
Don't try to quantify everything. In stock research, the less
Expected Return 601 400.21 - mathematical you are, the more simple, sensible, and usef
Current Market Cap. 344 229.05 - be your analysis and results. Great analysis is generally "b
of-the-envelope".

Also, your calculated "fair value" will be proven wrong in

future, so don't invest your savings just because you fall in
with it. Don't look for perfection. It is overrated. Focus o
decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming eviden
 importance to a stock's valuations / fair value
ave answered in "Yes" to these two questions -
ness simple to be understood? and (2) Can I
understand this business?

fy everything. In stock research, the less non-

are, the more simple, sensible, and useful will
and results. Great analysis is generally "back-
of-the-envelope".

lated "fair value" will be proven wrong in the

vest your savings just because you fall in love
ook for perfection. It is overrated. Focus on
outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.
 March-08 March-09 March-06 March-07 March-08 March-09
EBITDA (Cr) 339.69 403.31 1.78 9.04 2.46 3.3
Total Outstanding Shares (cr) 3.56 3.56 0.31 0.31 - 0.31
EBITDA per share 95.54 113.43 5.73 29.10 #DIV/0! 10.62

EBITDA per share

120.00

100.00

80.00

60.00

40.00

20.00

-
March-06 Ma rch-08 March-10 March-12 March-14 Ma rch-16
 March-10 March-15 March-16 March-17 EBITDA growth rate (3 yr) 40.32
4.06 15.91 124 53.35 EBITDA growth rate (5 yr) #DIV/0!
0.31 1.15 1.41 1.48 EBITDA growth rate (9 yr) -10.248827
13.07 13.89 88.08 36.10
PEPG 3yr 0.33079054
PEPG 5yr #DIV/0!
PEPG 10 yr -1.3012139

ch-14 Ma rch-16
Undervalued
#DIV/0!
Undervalued
CMI LTD
SCREENER.IN
Narration Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18
Sales 67 72 77 92 75 134 132 134 134 160
% Growth YOY 11% 87% 71% 46% 80% 19%
Expenses 57 62 69 81 66 114 114 116 115 139
Operating Profit 10 9 8 11 9 20 18 18 19 21
Other Income - 90 1 1 1 2 0 1 1 1
Depreciation 0 0 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3
Interest 2 3 4 5 5 7 6 7 7 9
Profit before tax 7 96 2 5 3 13 9 9 10 10
PBT Margin 11% 134% 3% 5% 4% 9% 7% 7% 8% 7%
% Growth YOY -58% -87% 270% 106% 243% -17%
Tax 2 2 1 2 1 -11 3 3 4 4
Net profit 5 94 2 3 2 23 6 6 7 7
% Growth YOY -57% -75% 299% 104% 232% -71%
OPM 14% 13% 11% 12% 12% 15% 13% 14% 14% 13%
COMPANY NAME CMI LTD
LATEST VERSION 2.10 PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CHA
CURRENT VERSION 2.10

META
Number of shares 1.50
Face Value 10
Current Price 229.05
Market Capitalization 344.2

PROFIT & LOSS

Report Date Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09
Sales 2028.12 2595.64 12.57 22.87 22.1 51.39
Raw Material Cost 1166.01 1531.5 9.12 17.63
Change in Inventory 41.86 -17.78 -0.65 1.29
Power and Fuel 36.31 45.55 0.32 0.41
Other Mfr. Exp 105.39 95.86 0.75 0.85 18.61 44.85
Employee Cost 246.68 343.98 0.78 0.79 0.77 0.93
Selling and admin 161.43 200.3 0.28 0.29 0.63 1.27
Other Expenses 80.64 121.33 2.11 5.53 0.02 1.82
Other Income 66.17 163.97 3.22 10.38 0.39 0.78
Depreciation 84.66 109.06 0.82 0.8 0.89 0.87
Interest 28.86 38.34 0.03 0.48 0.48 0.31
Profit before tax 226.17 255.91 0.93 7.76 1.09 2.12
Tax 51.13 34.71 0.01 -0.03
Net profit 177.86 176.25 0.93 7.76 1.08 2.15
Dividend Amount 48 48

Quarters
Report Date Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17
Sales 67.13 71.76 77.03 91.88 74.72 134.24
Expenses 57.42 62.32 68.75 81.12 65.57 113.86
Other Income 90.31 0.65 1.24 1.39 1.55
Depreciation 0.33 0.35 2.67 2.66 2.26 2.54
Interest 2.25 3.18 3.8 4.74 5.26 6.85
Profit before tax 7.12 96.23 2.46 4.6 3.02 12.54
Tax 2.31 1.92 0.94 1.6 0.96 -10.94
Net profit 4.81 94.31 1.51 3.01 2.06 23.48
Operating Profit 9.71 9.44 8.28 10.76 9.15 20.38

BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09
Equity Share Capital 35.56 35.56 3.11 3.11 3.11 3.11
Reserves 498.32 745.55 -9.96 -2.21 -1.13 1.02
Borrowings 489.12 895.09 18.75 8.83 13.91 17.75
Other Liabilities 574.35 1841.26 7.58 7.91 8.52 7.6
Total 1597.35 3517.46 19.48 17.64 24.41 29.48
Net Block 603.13 1348.67 7.69 6.61 5.92 5.63
Capital Work in Progress 28.22 176.35
Investments 4.96 54.71 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
Other Assets 961.04 1937.73 11.74 10.98 18.44 23.8
Total 1597.35 3517.46 19.48 17.64 24.41 29.48
Receivables 328.74 613.23 5.88 4.07 5.6 10.23
Inventory 289.34 611.15 2.59 3.8 7.45 8.12
Cash & Bank 95.36 276.62 1.24 1.53 2.4 2.13
No. of Equity Shares 355557000 355557000 3106750 3106750 3106750
New Bonus Shares
Face value 1 1 10 10 10 10

CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09
Cash from Operating Activity 196.48 249.85
Cash from Investing Activity -182.78 -366.19
Cash from Financing Activity -17.76 294.8
Net Cash Flow -4.06 178.46

PRICE: 19.38 14.9

DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 3.56 3.56 0.31 0.31 - 0.31
DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET

Mar-10 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17

48.26 135.76 240.22 377.87
110.05 197.07 328.56
1.26 5.48 37.36
1.72 2.21 5.52
42.12 3.17 6 8.88
1.07 2.14 2.99 10.95
1.53 5.35 5.36 11.88
0.03 0.2 -0.11 0.92
0.55 1.52 91.82 4.83
1.03 0.88 1.28 10.13
1.1 5.9 9.22 20.57
1.93 9.13 113.5 22.67
2.83 7.52 -7.41
1.93 6.3 105.98 30.07
1.34 1.48

Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18

131.52 134.32 134.49 159.73
113.9 115.84 115.26 138.68
0.36 0.63 0.59 1.39
2.59 2.64 2.61 2.65
6.29 6.98 6.85 9.36
9.1 9.49 10.36 10.42
3.07 3.35 3.52 3.63
6.03 6.14 6.84 6.79
17.62 18.48 19.23 21.05

Mar-10 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17

 3.11 11.46 14.08 14.78
2.94 24.44 160.15 189.8
16.7 33.25 98.43 139.3
9.83 25.09 48.39 117.13
32.58 94.24 321.05 461.01
5.86 8.22 166.23 163.71
0.11 7.26 4.91
0.05
26.56 86.02 147.56 292.39
32.58 94.24 321.05 461.01
13.69 36.57 50.61 141.04
7.64 34.78 45.13 100.44
1.88 3.05 7.19 8.8
3106750 11451807 14077457 14777457

10 10 10 10

Mar-10 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17

-3.02 -4.01 5.79
-3.91 -12.26 -21.87
7.99 17.83 17.69
1.06 1.56 1.61

107.87 235.65 195.34

0.31 1.15 1.41 1.48

How to use it?
You can customize this workbook as you want.
You can add custom formating, add conditional formating, add your own formulas… do ANYTHING.
Please don't edit the "Data Sheet" only.

After customization, you can upload this back on Screener.

Upload on: https://www.screener.in/excel/

Download your customized workbooks now onwards.

Now whenever you will "Export to excel" from Screener, it will export your customized file.

TESTING:
This is a testing feature currently.
You can report any formula errors on the worksheet at: screener.feedback@dalal-street.in
… do ANYTHING.

dalal-street.in