How Should

Passengers
Choose the Safest
Airline?

Analysis by - Two Fast Too Furious

 Background

● In the mid 20th century flying was often a lot more dangerous
than it is now. With improvements in modern technology,
flyers don’t even think twice about airline safety. Should they
be? Have airlines actually been improving?
● These are far from ‘yes or no’ questions, but the data provides
a good picture of where we stand on airline safety.
Data

● Taken from FiveThirtyEight on GitHub

● Original source: Aviation Safety Network
● Analyzed and discussed in FiveThirtyEight article
Defining Variables

Airline - denotes the name of the airline

ASK (available seat per kilometer) - the crash rate for number of
seats multiplied by the number of kilometers the airline flies

Incidents - any sort of complication

Fatal incidents- an incident where deaths are involved

Fatalities - number of deaths in a fatal incident

Airline Incidents from 1985-1999 to
2000-2014

● Compares the number of incidents between 1985-1999 and

2000-2014 for the displayed airlines
● Incidents include any accident where passengers have
suffered both injuries and fatalities
Airline Fatal Incidents from 1985-1999
to 2000-2014

● Compares the number of fatal incidents between 1985-1999

and 2000-2014 for the displayed airlines
● Fatal incidents include any accident that involves the death of
a passenger
Airline Fatalities from 1985-1999 to
2000-2014

● Compares the number of fatalities between 1985-1999 and

2000-2014 for the displayed airlines
● Fatalities refer to the deaths of passengers
How Airlines Have Changed Over Time
● Incidents
○ Have decreased between 1985-1999 and 2000-2014
○ United, Delta, and American Airlines (the Big Three) have the largest
amount of incidents from 2000-2014
■ Number of incidents for all three has decreased from 1985-1999
● Fatal Incidents
○ Have decreased between 1985-1999 and 2000-2014
● Fatalities
○ Have decreased between 1985-1999 and 2000-2014
○ Outliers due to plane crashes
■ Air France - Air France 447 (June 1, 2009)
■ American Airlines - American Airlines 597 (November 12, 2001)
■ Malaysia Airlines - Malaysia Airlines 370 (March 8, 2014)
Better procedures = Safer Airlines

● Airlines improved over

time
○ Better engineering
○ Well trained crew
○ More accurate
equipment
Bigger airlines have more incidents but...

● Larger Airlines have more incidents, due to more flights traveled,

HOWEVER
○ Incidents per seat km are pretty similar between bigger
airlines and smaller airlines
Which small airline is the safest?
Fatal Accidents among Small Airlines from 1985 - 1999
Airlines with the Least Fatal Accidents from 1985 - 2014
How small airlines have improved in
number of fatal accidents from
1985-2014
Safest Small Airlines
American, United, or Delta?
Based on the data provided,
United is the safest big airline
Conclusion

● Passengers should assess safety based on the airline’s performance

over time
○ Has the airline learned from their past mistakes?
○ What measures have they taken to improve their performance?
■ Includes changes in engineering, crew, and equipment
● Although smaller airlines have fewer accidents, passengers should
account for the fact that bigger airlines operate more flights
○ Incidents per seat km are similar between large and small airlines
● Overall, the number of incidents, fatal incidents, and fatalities have
decreased over time
○ Indicates that airlines have implemented more safety measures