Professional Documents
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ISSN: 1546-9239
©2014 Science Publication
doi:10.3844/ajassp.2014.74.84 Published Online 11 (1) 2014 (http://www.thescipub.com/ajas.toc)
Keywords: Project Risk Management, Construction Management, Decision Making, Project Classification,
Risk Analysis, Triple Constraints, Radar Diagram
fundamental question of ‘what and how much to be done group of qualitative risk analysis techniques does not
(Ward and Chapman, 2003)?’ operate on numerical data, presenting results in the form
A project can be addressed to cope with the following of descriptions, recommendations and ordinal scores
four main focuses, ranging from limited to extended: (1) (Hubbard and Evans, 2010), where risk assessment is
proposal preparation during a bidding process; (2) either connected with qualitative description and determination of
pure design or sole construction; (3) integrated design qualitative scales for the probability and impact of the
and construction and (4) lifecycle, which is usually a consequences of risk. Qualitative techniques can be lists of
combination of the first three stages, namely design, risks, risk rankings, or risk maps. These techniques
construction and operations (Arditi and Gunaydin, 1998). prioritize risks for subsequent further analysis or action by
A lifecycle focus is likely to bear more associated risks. assessing and combing their probability of occurrence and
impact. The risk is evaluated in more conceptual terms,
2.4. Maturity such as high, medium or low, depending on the collected
PM organizations that undertake projects are always opinions and risk tolerance boundaries in the organization.
required to improve and adjust their operations and The main qualitative analysis techniques are:
processes to plan, manage and complete projects more Brainstorming: Best possible solutions of project risk are
successfully due to constant pressure on project managers generated and determined under the leadership of a
to integrate, plan and control complex projects (Ibbs and facilitator (Berg, 2010); cause and effect diagram: Also
Kwak, 2000). Project organizations are exposed to known as the Ishikawa or fishbone diagram, it is useful
maturity models of various types (Grant and Pennypacker, for identifying and analyzing causes of risks (Del Cano,
2006). Furthermore, not only does the organizational 2002); checklists: A detailed aide-memoire for the
project management maturity matter but also the risk identification of potential risks based on past similar
management maturity of the PM organization. projects (Del Cano, 2002); delphi: A facilitator uses a
PMI (2004) identifies the organizational project questionnaire to solicit ideas about the major project
management maturity on four scales: (1) standardize the risks and project risk experts participate anonymously
process; (2) measure the effectiveness of the (Berg, 2010); Event Tree Analysis (ETA): Models the
standardized business processes in achieving desired range of possible outcomes of one or a category of
outcomes; (3) control the developed processes, plans and initiating events and usually provides qualitative
implementations to achieve stability and (4) continuously descriptions (Del Cano, 2002); Risk Breakdown Matrix
improve by identifying new problems and implementing (RBM): An ‘activities and threats’ matrix, where the risk
improvements to attain sustainability. number for each activity and the most frequent overall
risks are evaluated (Hillson et al., 2006); risk data
3. PROJECT RISK ANALYSIS quality assessment: Evaluates the extent to which a risk
TECHNIQUES is understood and the accuracy, quality, reliability and
integrity of the risk data (PMI, 2009).
The process of project risk analysis demands A derivative group of techniques is the one that uses
appropriate and efficient techniques. A technique is a a semi-quantitative assessment of risk. Semi-quantitative
specific procedure designed to perform an activity or to analysis can be defined when a scale factor is associated
solve a problem under a prescribed notation and to nonnumeric rankings.
guidelines (Brinkkemper, 1996). Some of the semi-quantitative variants of qualitative
The application of a risk analysis technique is often techniques are: Interviewing: Risks are identified
supported by tools that can be automated. The main role of through expert interviews and a risk management
the tools is to allow for searching, gathering and managing capability score is determined with a five-point scale.
the necessary data for the various PRM phases. Various This technique is also used to assess the probability and
techniques use different types of data and information impact of risks on project objectives (IMA, 2007); risk
collected from a wide range of sources using different tools, mapping, risk matrix, probability and impact matrix:
such as statistics, inspections, surveys, documentations and Used to semi-quantitatively evaluate and prioritize a
expert judgments (Gilbert, 1989). group of risks that could significantly impact the project
Project risk analysis techniques can be classified into cost and time outcomes (Scandizzo, 2005); risk
two main categories, namely qualitative and quantitative probability and impact assessment: Investigates the
techniques (PMI, 2009), with associated sub-categories likelihood and potential effect of a risk on projects
of semi-quantitative and simulation techniques. The objectives (PMI, 2009).
In 2006, the university engaged the service of a manager quitting at a crucial stage of the design
Build-Operate-Transfer concessionaire to design, secure development; level of bankability lower than expected;
permits, finance, build and maintain the facility, which changes in the pre-agreed term sheet of financial closure;
consists of more than 17,000 square meters of above increase in unexpected financial closure transactional
ground functions (lecture rooms, office buildings, costs; lack of investment funds interested in entering the
dormitories, kindergartens, support stores, commercial SPV capital; financial problems of the university;
services) and more than 20,000 square meters of changes in the BOT system regulation in Italy;
underground facilities (parking lots, a gym and a underperforming commercialization/lower level of
swimming pool). The private investment of € 40 million expected market revenue; difficulty in finding interested
will be reimbursed via an annual unitary charge payment gym and swimming pool operators; and increased level
by the university, including all facility management of dispute between the project partners.
services and rental fees obtained from operating the
commercial and parking functions. An initial public 5.1.3. Project Mapping on the Radar Chart
funding of approximately € 6 million is made available. The project is identified on the anticipated radar
diagram’s axes (Fig. 1) as follows: Challenge 3, PM
5.1.2. Project Risks
Responsibility 4, Focus 4 and Maturity 1. The
Here is a short description of what happened and the medium-high level of challenge is due to the
major obstacles incurred during the course of action. The interconnection of various systems and buildings
project, up to May 2012, has undergone various major devoted to the different functions. However, the
risks, namely, design changes due to varied rental market project is neither time critical nor at a high level of
conditions following the 2007/08 real estate crisis; the innovation in building technology and process.
design not being approved by the fire protection agencies Because the project is a privately financed public
due to design changes; archeological discoveries in the facility, the Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) company has
underground excavations; financial stress due to the tremendous pressure on the cash stream, which becomes
2010/11 credit crunch with escalation in interest rates; extremely critical when the financial closure is secured
financial problems of the leading company; no equity with the banks’ pool. The focus is on the total BOT life
available to fund the design period up to the financial cycle from the initial concept design to operations.
closure and ground breaking; an experienced project Finally, the medium-sized family owned company,
which holds 75% of the SPV and associated project’s 5.1.5. Discussion
design and construction efforts, is at a low level of
maturity in the project management because there are not The use of a simple and less sophisticated technique
refined methods for measuring, controlling or results in a less than thorough but at least, a guaranteed
continuously improving the performance of their project risk analysis, which otherwise could be ignored.
management processes. The project drivers are plotted Additionally, the conventional risk ranking serves the
on the radar diagram in Fig. 2. The project poses an purpose of risk analysis because it draws the
‘unbalanced’ mapping on the radar chart. It suggests that management attention towards critical aspects of the
quantitative techniques be used, not a simulation due to project, which if mitigated and managed intelligently,
the level of challenge. However, the extremely low level will result in a higher probability of project success.
of maturity results in an even lower sophisticated Apparently, it seems evident from the current scenario
category of techniques, which is more aligned with that the most serious risks of the project were actually
acceptance/expertise and usage. However, using only the ones with high ranks obtained from the analysis.
qualitative techniques would be too simplistic and Therefore, it can be safely assumed that the technique
unjustified: Aligned with the level of maturity but not selected using the radar diagram given the project drivers
adequate for high levels of other drivers. Thus, it is proved to be apt and sufficient for the risk analysis.
proposed to use the semi-quantitative category and it The project manager, when requested to provide
is further proposed to use the “Probability-Impact feedback of this analysis, concluded that the
Matrix” technique. methodology is viable and useful in selecting risk
5.1.4. Risk Analysis analysis techniques that are suitable for the level of the
project complexity and maturity of the project
In Table 1, the risk analysis is performed using the environment. The project manager stated that this
data of the project during the year 2008 with the help of methodology does not provide an unnecessary
the selected technique. Also, based on the “Probability managerial burden to the project management duty. On
and Impact Risk Ranking” (PMI, 2009), the risks have the contrary, the methodology helps to provide the right
been categorized into ‘High’, ‘Medium’ or ‘Low’ risks. tools for the right project.
Table 1. Risks and application of the semi-quantitative Probability-Impact Matrix technique
What Risk
Description Prob. Impact occurred rank
Design changes due to varied 2 5 Market crisis H
rental market conditions
Design not approved by permit authorities 1 4 Firemen L
Archeological discoveries in the 4 2 Unknown 9th century walls L
underground excavations
Increase in interest rates 4 5 World credit crunch H
charged by lending institutions
Financial problems of the 3 4 Bankruptcy H
leading company. No equity available
to fund the design period up to the
financial close/ground breaking.
Project manager turnover 1 4 Quit when company started having problems L
Liquidity due to crisis 3 5 Lower level of bankability than expected.
Pre-agreed term sheet of financial close changed. Increase in unexpected
financial close transactional costs (business planning, banks’ due diligence).
No investment fund interested in entering the SPV capital. H
Granting authority’s budget cuts 4 3 Financial problems of the university meant incapable of paying
the additional annual charge to assure the project’s bankability M
Changes in the BOT 3 2 The project was not affected L
system regulation in Italy
Revenue/market risk 2 4 Underperforming commercialization/lower level of market revenue.
Unable to find an interested gym and swimming pool operator due to the M
financial crisis and high level of fees demanded by the
business plan to assure profitability
Stakeholders’ dispute 2 5 Increased level of dispute between the project’s partners H
Probability Scale: 1- Very Low, 2- Low, 3-Medium, 4-High, 5-Very High; Impact Scale: 1-Very Low, 2-Low, 3- Medium, 4- High, 5- Very High;
Risk Rank Scale: H-High, M-Medium, L-Low
5.2. Container Yard and Quay Wall Expansion process. Due to private finance and sophisticated
Project governmental associations, the PM Responsibility is limited
to the management of the budget only, where cash flow was
5.2.1. Project Overview primarily taken over by the client. The focus is on the total
BOT life cycle from the initial concept design to operations.
T This second sample project is a port expansion
Finally, though large-sized organizations were involved,
project, where the capacity of the existing container
their maturity was limited to only measuring their project
terminal in the port city of Karachi, Pakistan was
management processes. The project drivers are plotted on
increased. In 2005, Karachi International Container
the radar diagram shown in Fig. 3.
Terminal (KICT), a member of the Hutchison Port
The mapping of the current project is less ‘unbalanced’
Holdings Group, which has been enjoying the support
compared with that of the previous project (Fig. 2). The
and expertise of the world’s leading port investor,
developer and operator to help transform KICT into a category of simulation techniques cannot be considered
major container handling facility that is capable of because there is only one driver (Focus) plotted in that
receiving the region’s increasing container trade, entered region. Moreover, the categories of quantitative and semi-
into an agreement with the Karachi Port Trust (KPT) for quantitative techniques seem a bit too simplistic given the
the development of its Phase III project at West Wharf of overall complexity posed by the current project. Therefore,
Karachi Port (KPT). the natural choice would be quantitative techniques, which
In addition to extending the existing concession can be narrowed down to the “Decision Tree Analysis”
period, the project involved deepening the alongside technique. Due to space limitations, only the first risk
draft to 14 meters; increasing the handling capacity by (‘design changes’) is analyzed to demonstrate the
acquiring and redeveloping additional land area; and applicability of the methodology. Additionally, established
acquiring additional quayside and container yard by later events, this risk proved to be extremely critical and
equipment. Before the Phase III expansion, operational was an enormous nuisance.
terminal area was 135,122 sqm, length of berths was 500
m with an annual capacity of 400,000 TEUs at an initial 5.2.4. Risk Analysis
capital cost of US$ 65 million. The project design team had an ambitious plan when
BThe purpose of the projected expansion was to they decided to opt for driving the steel tubular piles to
increase the terminal to 260,000 sqm, berths length to support the existing quay wall to deepen the available
973 m and annual capacity to 700,000 TEUs with an draft. Although there was the possibility of in-situ
additional investment of US$ 55 million. Additionally, construction, the new design was much too alluring and
the berths of the terminal were deepened to allow a 14- the associated risks were ignored. This analysis considers
meter draught container ship. the possible alternatives and related probabilities.
5.2.2. Project Risks The design could be either driving the piles or in-situ
construction. Furthermore, there was considerably large
The project underwent a variety of major, negative probability of the piles reaching the design depth; however,
events/risks, namely the following: Design changes in in case they did not, although the probability was low, the
the length of the pile driving due to the varied impact was much higher in terms of monetary value, as
geotechnical conditions on site; unexpected and uneven shown in Fig. 4. Therefore, two remedial actions could be
settlement of the berth surface adjacent to the pile taken: Either doing the partial excavation to reach the
driving site, which rendered almost half of the old berth design depth and pouring concrete to fill the gap or
area unusable; and financial stress due to the 2008 credit removing the piles and constructing the piles in-situ.
crunch worldwide crisis with an increase in the interest
rates charged by the lending institutions. 5.2.5. Discussion
5.2.3. Project Mapping on the Radar Chart The use of quantitative techniques ensures a better and
more reliable analysis in this case. Furthermore,
The project may be plotted on the radar diagram as remembering the type of risk, a decision tree analysis
follows: Challenge 3, PM Responsibility 3, Focus 3 and seems to be an appropriate choice. From the project
Maturity 2. The medium-high level of challenge is due to manager’s interview and other sources of information, it
the complex interconnection of various systems, was found that due to geotechnical conditions, which were
structures and buildings devoted to different functions. not properly investigated before the design, the design
Although the project is not time critical, it possesses a could not be realized and additional steps were taken that
medium level of innovation in building technology and caused major delays and budget overruns in the project.
Fig. 3. Dimensions of the Container Yard and Quay Wall expansion project on the radar diagram
Therefore, the present scenario suggests that the with the help of project drivers sufficiently addresses the
category and technique selected by the radar diagram risk analysis.
Fig. 4. Decision tree analysis of the ‘Design changes’ risk in the port expansion project
The project manager was further requested to suitability and affectivity of this methodology at a
provide a feedback of this ex-post analysis. Based on larger level so the testimony of consulted project
his comments, it can be confidently concluded that the managers can be justified.
accuracy and efficiency of the framework
methodology left a satisfactory impression and the 7. SUMMARY
project manager was interested about the use of the
proposed methodology. Complex projects require more sophisticated risk
analysis techniques and vice versa: The cost and effort
6. LESSONS LEARNED AND involved in performing expensive and labor-exhaustive
IMPLICATIONS analysis using simulations will benefit only when it is
required, e.g., on complex, exceptional and rare projects.
With increased research and development efforts in Simpler and routine projects may benefit from relatively
the area of construction PRM, a larger variety of tools simpler analysis techniques, such as qualitative techniques.
and techniques to help perform risk management and This study presents a practical methodology for
improved performance of those tools and techniques, it helping project managers select the appropriate risk
becomes extremely important for project managers to analysis technique. The methodology also broadens the
select the appropriate tool or technique. To ascertain the perspective of the project drivers from conservative
suitability of the risk analysis technique, important, triple constraints (i.e., time, cost and quality/scope) to
select drivers of the project are suggested to be used in a more extensive and realistic constraints (i.e., complexity,
graphical manner. By carefully plotting and interpreting size, focus and maturity).
the radar chart, an advisable category of risk analysis The methodology is then applied to two construction
techniques can be reached, followed by subsequently projects by creating the proposed radar diagram,
choosing a technique. obtaining the suitable category of techniques, selecting
Furthermore, the use of the resulting technique will an appropriate technique from the collected depository of
aim to sufficiently reach the required sophistication and techniques and performing an ex-post risk analysis. The
reliability of the results. The technique will save the results and feedback from the associated project
project managers from investing too little or too much managers seem promising and call for more exhaustive
effort and money for the risk analysis activity, ensuring a testing at a broader level to ascertain the universality of
productive use of resources. It does not matter the type, the proposed methodology in the construction industry.
size or the final budget of the construction project to create
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