The interaction of AI and the present, as well as future, of the white collar workforce

Imagine a pair of horses talking at the beginning of the 20th century, discussing the new “mechanical

horses” that are gaining popularity. One of the horses says that these new machines will take over all the horse’s

jobs, making them useless. The other says that everything that automobiles have done has made their lives easier:

they no longer need to, say, do farm work, and instead do pretty easy jobs, such as pulling carriages around the city.

Although this may seem as if it has little to do with artificial intelligence and white collar jobs, if one replaces the

horses in the metaphor with humans, and substitutes automobiles with artificial intelligence, the connection is clear:

Artificial intelligence will take over many of the jobs that humans currently hold today. It will also create new,

better jobs for people than what could have been possible without it. Before getting further, however, defining

artificial intelligence is crucial.

The official definition of artificial intelligence (AI) according to Oxford Reference is "the study of man-

made computational devices and systems which can be made to act in a manner which we would be inclined to call

intelligent" (“Artificial Intelligence”), or in simpler terms, computer programs that can act intelligently. However,

when people think of AI, they often imagine futuristic robots, which is partly due to Hollywood. Robots are just the

body for some types of AI, where AI acts as the brain, but most AI do not have robot bodies. In fact, many people

have used a non-robot AI today: virtual assistants such as Siri are a form of extremely narrow artificial intelligence.

The above definition of artificial intelligence is relatively broad, so AI researchers have divided up artificial

intelligence programs into three groups: ANI, or Artificial Narrow Intelligence; AGI, or Artificial General

Intelligence; and ASI, or Artificial Super Intelligence. ANI is an artificial intelligence that works in one specific

field. Deep Blue, the computer that beat a human champion at chess, is an example of this. It could play chess

extremely well; it could not, as an example, design a car. An AGI, however, could: AGI programs can match

humans at any intellectual task. Humans have not yet created an AGI or an ASI. ASI is a computer that is much

smarter than any human at almost anything. Humans could ask it questions that seem impossible to them, but for an

ASI, seem like child’s play (Urban). Ahead of going further with AI development, researchers are trying to predict

how artificial intelligence will affect our lives, and one of the most important areas they should focus on is the

impact on jobs. More specifically, how will artificial intelligence change both the present and the future of the white

collar workforce? There is no way to be absolutely sure, but researchers have some solid conjectures. Before delving
into the future, both near and far, of white collar jobs, one should have a solid understanding of why AI has not

taken more jobs in the present.

One of the main reasons why artificial intelligence and other forms of automation haven't taken all of the

white collar jobs already is because implementing automation in an occupation actually increases the amount of

products made, which requires the company making the products employ more humans. As Irving Wladawsky put

it: ”automation also complements labor, raising economic outputs in ways that often lead to higher demand for

workers.” An example of this is the use of weaving machines instead of human weavers in the 1800s. Weaving

machines made workers focus more on taking care of the machines instead of the actual weaving. The automation

resulted in 50 times more cloth produced per worker, making the product cheaper and in more demand. This lead to

an increase of workers needed to tend the growing number of machines; between the years 1830 and 1900, the

number of weavers was multiplied by four (Wladawsky-Berger). This automation, although not technically artificial

intelligence, is the equivalent of AI in the blue collar workforce.

Another reason that artificial intelligence has not taken all of the workforce is because of the current state

of technology. For AI to take over much of the jobs in the white collar industry, it should be at least as powerful as a

regular human brain. However, when comparing the computer with one of the highest TEPS (traversed edges per

second, a measure of the speed of the movement of information in a computer) - IBM’s Sequoia supercomputer -

with the human brain, it is still very behind in terms of processing speed: 2.3 x 1013 compared with the human

brain’s 6.4 x 1014 TEPS. The cost is also prohibitive, as Sequoia cost around $250 million to construct (Marwaq).

However, the cost of computing power is decreasing exponentially, and the amount of computing power available

for the same amount of money is increasing. When looking at AI programs that are currently in development,

though, it becomes apparent that AI does not even need to be as good as a human to start replacing some jobs in the

near future.

One of the jobs that AI will change the most in the near futurity is journalism. Artificial intelligence

software can and is already writing articles in newspaper columns with a lot of data and not much creative writing,

such as sports. Currently, AI software Quill developed by Narrative Science is writing quarterly reports, which is

exactly the kind of writing that computers can create, as it is data-heavy with not much unclear, interpretive writing.

In 15 years robots will be able to write 90% of news articles but many journalist jobs will stay, as creative,

opinionated articles still need to be written by humans (Wakefield)

 Another job to be taken by AI is pharmaceuticals. Pharmacists work “with health care teams (to) advise

other health professionals on the proper dose, availability, side effects and monitoring parameters for effective

medication usage.” They are doing these things in a way that produces consistent results which artificial intelligence

does well, even better than humans, as UCSF points to. Humans still need to watch the computer program if the

computer makes a mistake. Computers are already extremely accurate, however, so if a human monitors a computer

system that's almost always right, it is possible for them to be too used to the computer being correct that they

wouldn’t notice when it is wrong. To make sure this doesn’t happen, the focus in pharmaceuticals would shift from

knowing all the proper drugs and their side effects (although this would still be important to know what’s a correct

dose from an incorrect one) to being focused and attentive to the details (Jennings).

Financial services are at a high risk of AI taking over many jobs in this sector. As Antony Jenkins, ex-

group chief executive of Berkeley's, said, ‘‘I predict that the number of branches and people employed in the

financial-services sector may decline by as much as 50 percent,’’ and then goes on to say that even in a “better”

scenario, there would be a decrease of 20 percent. The implementation of AI into financial services could make it

less expensive, as computer programs would not wish to take money from someone for their own benefit, but

instead would allow more honest, transparent services with fewer charges. However, AI has failed to reach the

executive levels, which means the difference in income between the workers and the administrators increases even

more (Popper).

Although AI will certainly adopt some of the jobs in the programming sector, the largest change it will

have in the near future is how software developing will work. Right now, programs are written in thousands,

sometimes millions, of lines of code. Those instructions are very strict and narrow, to be executed in a certain

manner. In the future, there might not be code at all; instead, the software would be designed to learn and react on its

own, allowing programs to solve problems in their own fashion, in ways that humans could not have imagined

before (Way).

Going past the near future of white collar jobs into the far future reveals something : the elimination of

almost all jobs. With the creation of AGI and ASI, humans could become a “useless class”, as our intellectual

abilities will become worthless (Sample). However, even if this is the case, AI cannot completely replace the white

collars. Instead, it will require great minds and high professionals to do the few things AI will always be unable to
do. Some people, such as Hubert Dreyfus, think that AGI and ASI will never be achieved, but most believe it’s

possible (Urban). So, if and when ASI is made, two possibilities arise: A world with wealth, and a world of death.

ASI could solve almost any problem that humans have right now: it could think of an alternate form of

energy to stop CO2 emissions, cure all diseases, use nanotechnology to create food, solve world hunger, and could

even bring back extinct species with preserved DNA. It could even, crazily enough, allow us to live forever. If

humans survive the transition into a world with artificial super intelligence, most people seem to agree that the world

would be so well-organized (as the way ASI would set up the world would be far superior to any system set up

today) that even without jobs, which the ASI would do for us, wealth would surge. There would probably be some

form of redistribution of wealth to fund the unemployed. The reason for this distribution would not be for equality,

but because the whole world took a risk with the development of ASI, and so everyone deserves a reward for taking

it. The transition into ASI would be the biggest challenge, however. If humans make a mistake creating ASI, it could

lead to our extinction (Urban).

One of the ways that ASI could get rid of all humans (and, technically, all jobs) is by following poorly

defined, or static, goals. For example, if people give ASI the objective of “ending world hunger,” it could achieve

that goal by killing all people, which solves the problem from the perspective of an AI. If humans “get around” this

and give ASI the job of maintaining a certain set of ethics, it would make humans stuck to that set of morals for as

long as the ASI exists (which could be forever). This would be as bad as us living as people in the Middle Ages did.

It would be almost impossible to change the goals of an ASI once it starts, as it might see the new goal as a threat to

its current objective, and find a way around being reprogrammed. As Elon Musk puts it, “With artificial intelligence

we are summoning the demon. In all those stories where there’s the guy with the pentagram and the holy water, it’s

like – yeah, he’s sure he can control the demon. Doesn’t work out” (Gibbs). This outcome is more likely to happen

if AI is under a government control. One way to prevent this would be to make AI development open to ethical

people, as he explains: “The entire basis on which they (governments) regulate is fundamentally corrupt … No, I’m

very much a supporter with the OpenAI sort of process” (Barney).

In the final analysis, it is helpful for one to go back to the beginning. Artificial intelligence is, simply,

forms of intelligence displayed by machines. There are some things today that show signs of artificial intelligence,

but the type most people think of is artificial general intelligence or artificial superintelligence.
 The main reason that jobs are still around is because artificial intelligence complements work, not just

replace it. AI will increase the quality and amount of products produced when it is implemented so much that it will

decrease cost, leading to higher demand,which leads to more jobs. The other main reason is because AI in its present

state does not have the processing power to match humans at certain jobs, as even some of the largest, most

expensive computers are still far behind the human brain in terms of information movement speeds. However, most

jobs don’t even require robots to be better humans: rather, they just need AI to do the job as good as a human.

Some jobs that could be affected the most in the near future by AI are journalism, pharmacist, financial

services, and software developers. Some of these jobs are already transitioning towards AI. For example, in

journalism, there is already a software bot that can write quarterly reports. AI would also change what the job is

focused on. In the pharmaceutical sector, the focus would change from memorizing all the correct doses and side

effects to staying focused, while in the programming sector, the job would change from writing line upon line of

code to “coaching” and teaching AI.

In the far future, most jobs will likely be eliminated by Artificial super intelligence. In a best-case scenario,

ASI could do almost anything humans could think of, and even things that people can’t even imagine. ASI would, in

this case, make the world so efficient that wealth would be spread to everyone, while separating labor from salary.

However, many experts think that achieving this state of semi-nirvana would be extremely difficult and that a much

worse outcome is more likely. They suggest that ASI will not necessarily turn against us, but the goals programmed

into it could conflict with humanity’s best interests: namely, survival.

After researching the question, “how will artificial intelligence affect both the present and the future of the

white collar workforce,” an answer reveals itself. Jobs that require analyzing information and giving helpful

information on it are being affected and will be affected first, as well as jobs that deal with developing AI. They will

be affected by artificial intelligence taking the jobs of data collectors and will assist humans whose job is too

complex for computers. As Dr. Barney puts it, “The people who have creative ideas are gonna be just fine, but the

people who are doing rote, mundane, boring things... they’re just not gonna have jobs anymore” (Barney). AI will

continue to develop, and while increasing in power, will certainly take even more occupations as its working ability

increases. At a certain point, AI will surpass humans intellectually. From here, AI can either take all jobs, and

organize the world so well that everyone will be wealthy, or AI can accidently destroy all humanity, also taking all

jobs in the process.

 AI is a very important issue, with everyone eventually being affected in one way or another. With the fate

of jobs and humanity’s survival at risk, it’s extremely important to think and ponder this question: is the benefit of

AI solving all of our problems worth the existential risk? Only time will tell.

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