SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.207969
R Square 0.043251
Adjusted R Squar -0.05242
Standard Error 81.46563
Observations 12

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 3000.175 3000.175 0.452062 0.516591
Residual 10 66366.49 6636.649
Total 11 69366.67

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 1273.106 50.13863 25.39172 2.06E-10 1161.39 1384.822 1161.39 1384.822
period -4.58042 6.812498 -0.67236 0.516591 -19.7596 10.59877 -19.7596 10.59877
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.207969
R Square 0.043251
Adjusted R -0.05242
Standard E 81.46563
Observatio 12

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 3000.175 3000.175 0.452062 0.516591
Residual 10 66366.49 6636.649
Total 11 69366.67

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 1273.106 50.13863 25.39172 2.06E-10 1161.39 1384.822 1161.39 1384.822
period -4.58042 6.812498 -0.67236 0.516591 -19.7596 10.59877 -19.7596 10.59877
 alpha Simple Linear Regression
month period sales ($000) 4 month moving average abs error error squared average % error
jan 1 1,212.00
feb 2 1,321.00
mar 3 1,278.00
apr 4 1,341.00
may 5 1,257.00 1,288.00 31.00 961.00 2.47%
jun 6 1,287.00 1,299.25 12.25 150.06 0.95%
jul 7 1,189.00 1,290.75 101.75 10,353.06 8.56%
aug 8 1,111.00 1,268.50 157.50 24,806.25 14.18%
sep 9 1,145.00 1,211.00 66.00 4,356.00 5.76%
oct 10 1,150.00 1,183.00 33.00 1,089.00 2.87%
nov 11 1,298.00 1,148.75 149.25 22,275.56 11.50%
dec 12 1,331.00 1,176.00 155.00 24,025.00 11.65%
13th month 1,231.00 88.22 11,001.99 7.24%
average 1,243.33

a. calculate a four-month moving average forecast. What is your forecast for month 13?
1,231.00

b. Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing factor of 0.30 to calculate the forecast for month 13.
1,213.56

2. Fit a simple regression model to the data in Problem 1 above. What is your forecast for month 13?
 - 4.58 1,268.53
1,273.11 1,263.95
1,259.36
y =ax+b 1,254.78
1,250.20
1,245.62
1,241.04
1,236.46
1,231.88
1,227.30
1,222.72
1,218.14
1,213.56

ecast for month 13.

regression -1

Forecasting Simple linear regression

IfIf this
this isis trend
trend analysis
analysis thenthen simply
simply enter
enter thethe past
past demands
demands in in the
the
demand
demand column. column. IfIf this
this isis causal
causal regression
regression then then enter
enter the
the y,x
y,x pairs
pairs
with
with yy firstfirst and
and enter
enter aa new
new value
value of
of xx at
at the
the bottom
bottom in
in order
order to to forecast
forecast
y.y.

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

Period Demand (y) Period(x) Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Sales 1 1,212.00 1 1268.526 -56.5256 56.52564 3195.148 04.66%
Sales 2 1,321.00 2 1263.945 57.05478 57.05478 3255.248 04.32%
Sales 3 1,278.00 3 1259.365 18.6352 18.6352 347.2706 01.46%
Sales 4 1,341.00 4 1254.784 86.21562 86.21562 7433.133 06.43%
Sales 5 1,257.00 5 1250.204 6.796037 6.796037 46.18612 00.54%
Sales 6 1,287.00 6 1245.624 41.37646 41.37646 1712.011 03.21%
Sales 7 1,189.00 7 1241.043 -52.0431 52.04312 2708.487 04.38%
Sales 8 1,111.00 8 1236.463 -125.463 125.4627 15740.89 11.29%
Sales 9 1,145.00 9 1231.882 -86.8823 86.88228 7548.531 07.59%
Sales 10 1,150.00 10 1227.302 -77.3019 77.30186 5975.578 06.72%
Sales 11 1,298.00 11 1222.721 75.27855 75.27855 5666.861 05.80%
Sales 12 1,331.00 12 1218.141 112.859 112.859 12737.15 08.48%
Total 1.14E-12 796.4312 66366.49 64.88%
Intercept 1273.10606 Average 9.47E-14 66.36927 5530.541 05.41%
Slope -4.5804196 Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 81.46563
Forecast 1213.56061 13
Correlatio -0.20797
Coefficient of determination 0.043251

1,500.00

1,000.00

500.00

-
0
 Tracking Signal
Cum error Cum Abs ErMad Track Signal (Cum error/MAD)

57.05478 57.05478 57.05478 1

75.68998 75.68998 44.07187 1.717421
161.9056 161.9056 54.60781 2.96488
168.7016 168.7016 45.04545 3.745142
210.0781 210.0781 44.43395 4.727873
158.035 262.1212 45.52098 3.471695
32.57226 387.5839 55.51369 0.586743
-54.31 474.4662 58.99909 -0.92052
-131.612 551.7681 60.82937 -2.16362
-56.3333 627.0466 62.14293 -0.90651
56.52564 739.9056 66.36927 0.851684

Regression
1,500.00

1,000.00

500.00

-
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Column B Linear (Column B)
MA-1
Enter
Enter alpha
alpha (between
(between 00 and
and 1),
1), enter
enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the shaded
shaded column
column then
then enter
enter aa
starting
starting forecast.
forecast. IfIf the
the starting forecast
forecast isis not in
in the
the first
first period
period then
then delete
delete the
the error
Forecasting Exponential
starting
analysis for all rows above the starting forecast.
smoothing
not error
analysis for all rows above the starting forecast.

Alpha 0.3
Data 4-month Forecasts and Error Analysis Tracking Signal
Period Sales MA Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err Cum Error
Period 1 1,212.00 - 1212 0 0 0 00.00%
Period 2 1,321.00 - 1212 109 109 11881 08.25% 109
Period 3 1,278.00 - 1244.7 33.3 33.3 1108.89 02.61% 142.3
Period 4 1,341.00 - 1254.69 86.31 86.31 7449.416 06.44% 228.61
Period 5 1,257.00 1,288.00 1280.583 -23.583 23.583 556.1579 01.88% 205.027
Period 6 1,287.00 1,299.25 1273.508 13.4919 13.4919 182.0314 01.05% 218.5189
Period 7 1,189.00 1,290.75 1277.556 -88.5557 88.55567 7842.107 07.45% 129.9632
Period 8 1,111.00 1,268.50 1250.989 -139.989 139.989 19596.91 12.60% -10.0257
Period 9 1,145.00 1,211.00 1208.992 -63.9923 63.99228 4095.012 05.59% -74.018
Period 10 1,150.00 1,183.00 1189.795 -39.7946 39.79459 1583.61 03.46% -113.813
Period 11 1,298.00 1,148.75 1177.856 120.1438 120.1438 14434.53 09.26% 6.331172
Period 12 1,331.00 1,176.00 1213.899 117.1006 117.1006 13712.56 0.0879795 123.4318
Total 123.4318 835.2608 82442.23 67.37%
Average 10.28599 69.60507 6870.185 05.61%
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 90.7977
Next period 1249.02955

Errors as a function of alpha

Alpha Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err Standard Err
0 10.28599 69.60507 6870.185 05.61% 90.7977
0.1 6749.554 0.0586654 89.99702
0.2 6892.985 0.0573751 90.94824
0.3 6870.185 0.0561409 90.7977
0.4 6678.496 0.0534905 89.52204
0.5 6377.977 0.0501733 87.4847
0.6 6043.657 0.0467405 85.16096
0.7 5741.917 0.0459933 83.00783
0.8 5521.965 0.0468108 81.40244
0.9 5418.595 0.0475063 80.63693
1 5459.75 0.0482301 80.94257
Tracking Signal
Cum Abs ErMad Track Signal (Cum Error/MAD)

109 54.5 2
142.3 47.43333 3
228.61 57.1525 4
252.193 50.4386 4.064883
265.6849 44.28082 4.934843
354.2406 50.6058 2.568149
494.2295 61.77869 -0.16228
558.2218 62.02465 -1.19336
598.0164 59.80164 -1.90317
718.1602 65.28729 0.096974
835.2608 69.60507 1.773317

Forecasting
1,600.00

1,400.00

1,200.00

1,000.00

800.00
Value

600.00

400.00

200.00

-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Time

Sales MA Forecast
Consider the following data representing monthly retail sales of athletic shoes:

month sales ($000)

jan 328
feb 337
mar 341 1
apr 367
may 385
jun 403
jul 389
aug 376
sep 428
oct 305
nov 278
dec 450

a. calculate a three-month moving average forecast. What is your forecast for month 13?
b. use exponential smoothing with smoothing factor of 0.20 to calculate the forecast for moth 13.

4. fit a simple regression model to the data in problem 3 above. What is your forecast for month 13?
Consider the table below

period year sales (units) # of students in millions

Jan-Jun 1992 4,075 72
Jul-Dec 1992 5,239 71
Jan-Jun 1993 3,284 76
Jul-Dec 1993 6,194 75
Jan-Jun 1994 2,582 74
Jul-Dec 1994 5,183 73
Jan-Jun 1995 1,968 69
Jul-Dec 1995 4,023 68
Jan-Jun 1996 1,798 65
Jul-Dec 1996 3,522 64

a. fit a simple liner regression to this data. What is your forecast for the Jan-Jun 1997 period?
b. Now divide the data into two sets: the first half of the year, and the second half of the year. Perform a simple regression on t

Consider the data in problem above. Now suppose that the publisher has also obtained data on the number of students enrolle
Perform a simple regression on the data for sales in the first half-year. What is your forecast for the Jan-Jun 1997 period? Do you think this a

n the number of students enrolled in the US colleges and universities for each of those time periods.
1997 period? Do you think this answer is more likely to be accurate than the answer to part (a)? Why?