Ecological Theory,

Pest Management, and

Conservation Biology:
Lessons for Rice Ecosystems

Dr. Charles J. Krebs

University of Canberra
and
University of British Columbia
1
 Starting Assumptions

„ Ecology has sprung from a basis in

practical agriculture
„ During the last 60 years the two fields
have gone their separate ways
„ Have ecologists learned anything during
that time that might aid agricultural
science?
2
 Historical Development of Ecology

AGRICULTURE

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

ECOLOGY
 Dilemma # 1

„ Pest management has been largely an

empirical science
„ Conservation biology is also largely
empirical but with a bit of theory
„ Ecological theory moves along almost
divorced from empirical reality

4
 The Challenge

„ Can we bring these disciplines

together in such a way that they can
assist one another?

5
 Outline

„ Ecological Theory
„ Pest Management
„ Conservation
„ Six Practical Principles for Agriculture

6
 A Caveat

„ All these disciplines profit from better

statistical methods and better sampling
devices
„ I will not discuss this sharing of
methodology, which is very important for
progress

7
 Ecological Theory –
Population Dynamics - # 1

„ Models of population growth

¾ Age-based and stage-based
population projection models
¾ Elasticity and sensitivity analysis of
matrix models
Caswell, H. 2001. Matrix population models : construction, analysis,
and interpretation. 2nd ed. Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, Massachusetts.
8
 Ecological Theory –
Population Dynamics - # 2

„ Models of competition and predation

¾ Tilman’s models of competition
¾ Functional and numerical response
models for predators

Hastings, A. 1997. Population Biology: Concepts and Models.

Springer, New York.

9
 Ecological Theory –
Population Dynamics - # 3

„ Models of herbivory
¾ Caughley’s interactive and non-
interactive models of plant-herbivore
¾ Few theoretical models

Olff, H., V. K. Brown, and R. Drent, editors. 1999. Herbivores: Between

Plants and Predators. Blackwell Publishers, Oxford.
10
 Ecological Theory –
Population Dynamics - # 4

„ Models of disease and parasitism

¾ Susceptible-Infectious-Resistant models
from medical epidemiology
¾ Strong interaction with medical sciences

Anderson, R. M. 1991. Populations and infectious diseases: ecology or

epidemiology? Journal of Animal Ecology 60:1-50.
11
 Ecological Theory –
Community Dynamics - # 1

„ Models of equilibrium and non-

equilibrium community organization
¾ Disturbance and patch dynamics
¾ Highly relevant to agricultural systems

DeAngelis, D. L., and J. C. Waterhouse. 1987. Equilibrium and nonequilibrium

concepts in ecological models. Ecological Monographs 57:1-21.
. 12
 Ecological Theory –
Community Dynamics - # 2

„ Models of nutrient cycles

¾ Input-output models of soil nutrients
¾ Sustainability of nutrient budgets
¾ A central issue for agriculture

Newman, E. I. 1997. Phosphorus balance of contrasting farming systems, past

and present. Can food production be sustainable? Journal of Applied Ecology
34:1334-1347.
13
 Ecological Theory –
Community Dynamics - # 3

„ Models of food webs

¾ Complex food webs show surprises
¾ Indirect effects
¾ Law of Unintended Consequences
Williams, R. J., and N. D. Martinez. 2000. Simple rules yield complex food
webs. Nature 404:180-183.
Paine, R. T. et al. 1998. Compounded perturbations yield ecological surprises.
Ecosystems 1:535-545.
14
 Ecological Theory –
Community Dynamics - # 4

„ Diversity and Stability Hypothesis

¾ High biodiversity = high stability
¾ Monocultures lead to pest and disease
outbreaks
¾ A central issue for the agriculture of
monocultures
McCann, K. S. 2000. The diversity-stability debate. Nature 405: 228-233.
Worm, B., and J. E. Duffy. 2003. Biodiversity, productivity and stability in real
food webs. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 18: 628-632..
15
 Ecological Theory –
Landscape Dynamics - # 1
„ Central Idea:
¾ Landscape ecology argues that what
happens at one spatial scale may
depend on the character of the broader
landscape.
¾ A central issue for the geometry of
cropping systems
Büchs, W. 2003. Biotic indicators for biodiversity and sustainable agriculture-
introduction and background. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 98:1-16.
16
 Ecological Theory –
Landscape Dynamics - # 2

„ Relevance to Agriculture:
¾ Landscape ecology is possibly the most
relevant ecological discipline for
sustainable agriculture
¾ It is also the least well developed of the
ecological disciplines
Turner, M. G. et al. 2001. Landscape Ecology in Theory and Practice : Pattern
and Process. Springer, New York. 401 pp.

17
 Ecological Theory –
Complex Systems
„ Much interest in complex systems
¾ Unclear to me how this will help
achieve agricultural sustainability
¾ It has been applied to the Western
Australia wheat belt in the book by
Allison and Hobbs (2006)
Gunderson, L.H. & Holling, C.S. 2002. Panarchy: Understanding Transformations
in Human and Natural Systems. Island Press, Washington, D.C. 507 pp.

18
 Applied Ecology –
Conservation Biology - # 1

„ Principles relevant to agriculture:

¾ Protect biodiversity
¾ Protect genetic diversity
¾ Protect natural habitat
¾ Provide dispersal corridors

Caughley, G., and A. Gunn. 1996. Conservation Biology in Theory and

Practice. Blackwell Science, Oxford. 459 pp.

19
 Applied Ecology –
Conservation Biology - # 2
„ Why protect biodiversity?
¾ “Save the pieces” argument
¾ Products for human health
¾ Diversity promotes stability
¾ Unknown amount of redundancy

Edwards-Jones, G. 2007. Is paradigm shifting worth the effort?

Trends in Ecology & Evolution 22: 116-117.

20
 An Immediate Problem
„ How much biodiversity is enough?
„ Do we have the right biodiversity for
agriculture?
„ We have not even cataloged much of
natural biodiversity, particularly in
insects
Büchs, W. et al. 2003. Biodiversity, the ultimate agri-environmental indicator?
Potential and limits for the application of faunistic elements as gradual indicators
in agroecosystems. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 98: 99-123.
21
Ecosystem Function in relation to
Biodiversity
y
deca
w
slo
Ecosystem function

y
e ca
d
e ar
lin
y
eca
d
d
a pi
r

Species diversity

McCann, K.S. 2000. The diversity-stability debate.

Nature 405: 228-233.
 A Potential Conflict
„ Conservation biologists typically worry
about the rare species
„ Agricultural scientists may be more
concerned with the common species
- we must consider individual species
with regard to system function

Balvanera, P. et al. 2005. Applying community structure analysis to ecosystem function:

examples from pollination and carbon storage. Ecological Applications 15: 360-375.
23
 Applied Ecology –
Conservation Biology - # 3
„ Why protect genetic diversity?
¾ Future evolution potential
¾ Protect local ecotypes
¾ Ignorance is not bliss
¾ Unknown amount of climate change

Joshi, J. et al. 2001. Local adaptation enhances performance of common plant

species. Ecology Letters 4: 536-544.

24
 Local Adaptation in Trifolium pratense
1.0
poor U.K. (1)
performance Switzerland
0.8

Selection coefficient
0.6

0.4

0.2
good
performance
0.0
y
By and large

en

nd
nd
)

ga
(1

(2

an

ed
the species do

la
la
K.

K.

rtu
rm

er

Ire
U.

U.

Sw

Po
Ge

itz
best on their
Sw

Origin of plants “home ground”

Joshi, J. et al. 2001. Ecology Letters 4: 536-544.
 Applied Ecology –
Conservation Biology - # 4
„ Why protect natural habitats?
¾ Future restoration is very expensive
¾ Niche diversification for desirable
species
¾ Diversity promotes stability
¾ Unknown amount of redundancy
Brooks, T. M. et al. 2002. Habitat loss and extinction in the hotspots of
biodiversity. Conservation Biology 16: 909-923.

26
 Arable Weeds in Netherlands

Species richness Organic farming

Landscape
complexity
can compensate
Intensive
farming for intensive
farming

Simple Complex

Landscape

Tscharntke, T. et al. 2005. Landscape perspectives on agricultural intensification and

biodiversity-ecosystem service management. Ecology Letters, 8, 857-874.
 Applied Ecology –
Pest Management - # 1
„ Relevant Principles:
¾ Killing pests does not always reduce
their abundance
¾ Understand pest biology
¾ Avoid poisons if possible
¾ Use cultural controls
Singleton, G. R. et al. (ed.) 1999. Ecologically-based Management of Rodent Pests.
Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research, Canberra, Australia.

28
 Applied Ecology –
Pest Management - # 2
„ New methods for pest control:
¾ Sterility experiments on insects and
vertebrates
¾ Plant biotechnology – Bt cotton
¾ Cultural controls
¾ Use cultural controls wisely
Bates, S. L. et al. 2005. Insect resistance management in GM crops: past, present
and future. Nature Biotechnology 23:57-62.
29
 Alternatives to Pesticides

„ Bacillus thuringiensis transgenic plants:

¾ High-dose-refuge strategy depends on low
frequency of resistance genes and high fitness
cost of these genes
¾ Chrysomela tremulae in non-Bt areas already had
1-2% frequency of resistance genes
¾ Experiments in lab showed high fitness cost of
these genes in a non-Bt environment

Wenes, A.L. et al. 2006. Frequency and fitness cost of resistance to Bacillus thuringiensis in
Chrysomela tremulae (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae). Heredity 97: 127-134.
 European Rabbit in Australia
140

120 High sterility

yet no drop Controls
100
population size

in rabbit density
Adjusted

80

60

40

20 80% sterile

0
Nov Feb May July Nov Feb May July Nov Feb May July
1994 1995 1996

Twigg, L.E. & Williams, C.K. 1999. Fertility control of overabundant species: can it
work for feral rabbits? Ecology Letters 2: 281-285.
 Six Pragmatic Principles for
Agriculture - # 1

„ Landscape design matters

¾ Spatial and temporal components – what

crop to grow where?
¾ Well established in good agricultural
systems
¾ Information is highly site and crop specific

Tscharntke, T. and R. Brandl. 2004. Plant-insect interactions in fragmented

landscapes. Annual Review of Entomology 49:405-430.
32
Cotton Fields in an Agriculture Landscape

Sorghum Uncultivated
land

Cotton

Prasifka, J. R. et al. 2005. Relationships of landscape, prey and agronomic

variables to the abundance of generalist predators in cotton (Gossypium
hirsutum) fields. Landscape Ecology 19:709-717.
 Six Pragmatic Principles for
Agriculture - # 2

„ Maintain natural habitats interspersed

with agricultural fields
¾ Habitat management for pests and for
useful species like pollinators
¾ But design the interspersion if possible

34
Pollination by Bees in Coffee
100
Lowland coffee
Central Sulawesi
90
Fruit set (%)

80

70

60

50
0 200 400 600 800 1000
Forest distance (m)

Klein, A.M. et al. 2003. Pollination of Coffea canephora in relation to local

and regional agroforestry management.
Journal of Applied Ecology 40: 837-845.
Pollination of Watermelon Crops
1000
Watermelon pollination
Pollen deposition Northern California

100
(log scale)

10

1
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
Proportion of area in Woodland
and shrubland within 2.4 km

Kremen, C. et al. 2004. The area requirements of an ecosystem service:

crop pollination by native bee communities in California.
Ecology Letters 7: 1109-1119.
 Six Pragmatic Principles for
Agriculture - # 3

„ Maintain soils by measuring nutrient

inputs and outputs
¾ The ecological system in larger than a
single farm or group of farms
¾ Critical measurements to demonstrate
sustainability of farming practices

37
 Fertilizer Use in China
280
260 Jiangsu Province
(China)
240
Total fertilizer
Index of change

220
from 1980 (%)

200
180
160
Grain yield
140
120
100
80
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996

Richter, J. & Roelcke, M. 2000. The N-cycle as determined by intensive

agriculture – examples from central Europe and China.
Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems 57: 33-46.
 Six Pragmatic Principles for
Agriculture - # 4

„ Beware of thresholds

¾ Ecosystem service relationships may not

be straight lines
¾ Typically we cross thresholds and are
alerted to the problem after the fact
¾ Very little data are available on thresholds

39
 Hypothetical Thresholds
30
Crop A
25
Crop production index

20

Crop B
15

10

0
0 10 20 30 40 50
Percent natural forest

Kremen, C. & Cowling, R. 2005. Managing ecosystem services: what do

we need to know about their ecology? Ecology Letters 8: 468-479.
 Pacific Ocean Regime Shift
Pseudoreplication

The system
reversed
in 1993….

Chiba, S. et al. 2006. Effects of decadal climate change on zooplankton over the last 50
years in the western subarctic North Pacific. Global Change Biology 12: 907-920.
 Six Pragmatic Principles for
Agriculture - # 5

„ Consider possible multiple stable

states
¾ Ecosystems can not always get back to
where they started before disturbance
¾ Map the resilience of agricultural systems
¾ Determine the critical disturbance factors

42
 Multiple Stable States
(e.g. species richness)
Community attribute

C B

Community C 3Community B 2 Community A 1

Range of environments
(e.g. soil water)

Allison, H.E. & Hobbs, R.J. (2006) Science and policy in natural resource
management : understanding system complexity.
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 241 pp.
 Equilibrium States

Scheffer, M. & Carpenter, S.R. 2003. Catastrophic regime shifts in

ecosystems: linking theory to observation.
Trends in Ecology & Evolution 18: 648-656.
 Six Pragmatic Principles for
Agriculture - # 6

„ Expect on-going pest control problems

¾ Pest control is an arms-race
¾ Never underestimate the power or speed of
evolutionary change
¾ Work with natural controls not against them

45
 Resistance to Bt in Cabbage Looper
Lethal concentration of Bt

100000 Rapid decline in

resistance if
no selection

10000

1000
Treated Untreated Open Lab
greenhouses greenhouses fields

Group
Janmaat, A.F. & Myers, J. 2003. Rapid evolution and the cost of resistance to Bacillus
thuringiensis in greenhouse populations of cabbage loopers, Trichoplusia ni.
Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series B, 270: 2263-2270.
 Ecologically-Based Pest
Management

„ Understand the biology of the pests

„ Kill, kill, kill…. is not a strategy of

management but a stop-gap measure
„ Sustainable agriculture demands this of
scientists, but the research is not easy
and it is expensive
Singleton, G. R. et al. 2005. Integrated management to reduce rodent damage to lowland
rice crops in Indonesia. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 107:75-82.
47
 Summary # 1

„ Agricultural monocultures are well

designed for multiple ecological
problems
„ To solve these problems, it is useful to
look at natural ecosystems and the
rules by which they operate

48
 Summary # 2
„ If natural areas are not protected within
agricultural landscapes, there will be
a net loss of ecosystem services
„ The retention of biodiversity is an
essential component of sustainable
agriculture

49
 Summary # 3
„ We need monitoring indicators to tell us how
well we are doing
„ We need targets for all the elements in
sustainable agriculture
„ We must encourage agricultural scientists
and ecologists to work together on these
gigantic problems

50
 Summary # 4

„ Keep the pieces (genetic, species)

„ Keep the blueprints (reference

ecosystems for comparison)
„ Keep the ecosystem services
(pollination, pest control….)

51