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Prediction of shot success for basketball free throws: Visual search strategy

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Prediction of shot success for basketball free throws:

Visual search strategy
a b a a
Yusuke Uchida , Nobuaki Mizuguchi , Masaaki Honda & Kazuyuki Kanosue
a
Faculty of Sport Sciences, Waseda University, Saitama, Japan
b
Graduate School of Sport Sciences, Waseda University, Saitama, Japan
Published online: 10 Dec 2013.

To cite this article: Yusuke Uchida, Nobuaki Mizuguchi, Masaaki Honda & Kazuyuki Kanosue (2014) Prediction of shot
success for basketball free throws: Visual search strategy, European Journal of Sport Science, 14:5, 426-432, DOI:
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 European Journal of Sport Science, 2014
Vol. 14, No. 5, 426–432, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17461391.2013.866166

ORIGINAL ARTICLE

Prediction of shot success for basketball free throws: Visual search

strategy

YUSUKE UCHIDA1, NOBUAKI MIZUGUCHI2, MASAAKI HONDA1,

& KAZUYUKI KANOSUE1
1
Faculty of Sport Sciences, Waseda University, Saitama, Japan, 2Graduate School of Sport Sciences, Waseda University,
Saitama, Japan

Abstract
Downloaded by [Meijo University] at 21:24 11 June 2014

In ball games, players have to pay close attention to visual information in order to predict the movements of both the
opponents and the ball. Previous studies have indicated that players primarily utilise cues concerning the ball and
opponents’ body motion. The information acquired must be effective for observing players to select the subsequent action.
The present study evaluated the effects of changes in the video replay speed on the spatial visual search strategy and ability to
predict free throw success. We compared eye movements made while observing a basketball free throw by novices and
experienced basketball players. Correct response rates were close to chance (50%) at all video speeds for the novices. The
correct response rate of experienced players was significantly above chance (and significantly above that of the novices) at
the normal speed, but was not different from chance at both slow and fast speeds. Experienced players gazed more on the
lower part of the player’s body when viewing a normal speed video than the novices. The players likely detected critical
visual information to predict shot success by properly moving their gaze according to the shooter’s movements. This pattern
did not change when the video speed was decreased, but changed when it was increased. These findings suggest that
temporal information is important for predicting action outcomes and that such outcomes are sensitive to video speed.

Keywords: Basketball, prediction, visual search strategy, temporal information

Introduction shot attempt. Obtaining the rebound is an important

Free throw is a basic skill of shot for basketball
players. The scores gained from free throws typically
count for more than 20% of the total score (Krause
& Hayes, 1994), and fouls are often made in the last
part of close games so that a missed free throw
may give the fouling team another chance to score
(Kozar, Vaughn, Whitfield, Lord, & Dye, 1994). For
these reasons, many studies have examined players
shooting free throws to improve the success rate of
the throw (kinetics of shooting forms: Button,
MacLeod, Sanders, & Coleman, 2003; pre-shooting
behaviour: Lonsdale & Tam, 2008; usage of visual
information: de Oliveira, Oudejans, & Beek, 2009).
While the player shooting a free throw is focused
on the basket, the other players focus their attention
on the shooter to obtain the rebound after a missed
factor in determining the fate of games (Gómez,
Lorenzo, Barakat, Ortega, & Palao, 2008; Karipidis,
Fotinakis, Taxildaris, & Fatouros, 2001). A number
of studies have examined rebound jumping, such as
the change in rebounding ability considering players
age (Kellis, Tsitskaris, Nikopoulou, & Mousikou,
1999), advantageous placement of players for getting
rebounds (Oba, 2009) and the trajectory of a missed
shot in relation to the shooting direction and
distance (Ribas, Navarro, Tavares, & Gomez, 2011;
Tsamourtzis & Athanasiou, 2004).
The most important rebounding skill is predicting
the success or failure of shots. Skilled players in
many sports can perform accurate and quick judg-
ments well even under time pressure. The visual
information necessary for these judgments was iden-
tified in racquet sport players using temporal

Correspondence: Yusuke Uchida, Faculty of Sport Sciences, Waseda University, 2-579-15, Mikajima, Tokorozawa, Saitama 359-1192,
Japan. E-mail: uchida@meijo-u-ac.jp
Present address: Yusuke Uchida, Faculty of Science and Technology, Meijo University, 1-501, Shiogamaguchi, Tempaku, Nogoya
468-8502, Japan.

© 2013 European College of Sport Science


occlusion videos (Abernethy & Russell, 1987; Far-
row & Abernethy, 2002). Aglioti, Cesari, Romani,
and Urgesi (2008) utilised the task of watching
temporal occlusion videos of basketball free throws
and showed that skilled players predicted the success
or failure of shots accurately in a shorter time than
skilled observers (coaches and journalists) or un-
skilled players. They suggested that spatial informa-
tion, such as the joint angles of the knee, wrist and
fingers, is an important clue for a quick prediction
(Aglioti et al., 2008). Kinematics of the various parts
of the body involved in the shooting motion has been
shown to differ between successful and failed free
throws (Mullineaux & Uhl, 2010).
Previous studies have evaluated where skilled
players actually watch the shooter to obtain this
critical visual information for making predictions. To
date, spatial visual search activities have been studied
in detail. For example, expert soccer goalkeepers are
more accurate than novices in predicting the direc-
Downloaded by [Meijo University] at 21:24 11 June 2014
tion of a penalty kick, and pay close attention not
only to the ball, but also to the kicker’s legs
(Savelsbergh, Williams, Van der Kamp, & Ward,
2002). Tennis players also focus more on the
opponent’s arm and racquet, whereas novices main-
tain a fixation primarily on the ball (Goulet, Bard, &
Fleury, 1989; Shim, Miller, & Lutz, 2005). Experi-
enced basketball players were reported to have an
effective visual search strategy to anticipate the result
of free throws that was based on not only the ball’s
trajectory but also the shooter’s lower body and arms
(Ishibashi, Kato, Nagano, Ohgi, & Sasaki, 2010).
Similar findings were found in high-level competi-
tors (Squash: Abernethy, 1990; Abernethy & Rus-
sell, 1987; Volleyball: Lee, 2010).
However, it has not been studied how the accur-
acy of prediction and visual search activities were
affected by different video replay speeds (slow,
normal and fast). Slow video images are now being
widely used in sports training to evaluate learners’
movements. Williams (1989) found that slow-
motion demonstrations embedded the correct repro-
duction of an action. Scully and Carnegie (1998)
found that observing slow-motion demonstrations
facilitated the pick-up and replication of the model’s
coordination of various body parts but impaired the
pick-up and replication of parameters such as move-
ment time, speed and force. Other studies showed
that slow-motion displays conveyed distorted ‘un-
real-time’ features of the action, which hindered
action recognition (Barclay, Cutting, & Kozlowski,
1978).
If predicting the success of free throws depends on
the recognition of spatial information (relative posi-
tion of joints), the correct prediction rate may
improve with slow video playing and deteriorate
when the video replay speed is increased. If, on the
Temporal dynamics of visual search strategy 427
other hand, a prediction is made by obtaining
knowledge on temporal information such as speed,
the correct prediction rate may be the highest at
normal speeds.
Methods
Participants
Participants were eight male collegiate basketball
players (‘players’) who played for a team in the top
league of collegiate basketball. All participants had
played basketball for more than 10 years, including
the national team member at the Universiade. Their
average age was 21.8 ± 0.4. The comparison group
consisted of eight males with no experience of
playing basketball (‘novices’) who were undergradu-
ate students belonging to the university, with an
average age of 22.3 ± 2.3. None of the participants
had met the professional basketball player who shot
the free throws in the video shown to them. Written
informed consent was obtained from individual
participants after a detailed explanation of the con-
tent of the experiment and object of the study.
Apparatus, stimuli and procedure
Prior to the experiment, we filmed a professional
basketball player shooting free throws. From the
filmed video, we randomly extracted scenes of 10
successful shots and 10 failed shots. We defined the
video of these 20 shots as ‘normal video’. The video
included each shot from the start of the free throw
movement until the moment the ball reached the
highest point. We did not show the outcome. To
alter the time scale, we used video editing software
(Premiere Pro CS5, Adobe Systems Incorporated,
USA) to create slow-motion and fast-motion videos.
The slow-motion video was at 0.5× speed and the
fast-motion video was at 1.5× speed of the normal
video. The video presentation of a normal speed
free throw took 1412 ± 65 ms (mean ± S.D.)
(Figure 1A).
The participants’ heads were placed at a fixed
position with their chins on a chinrest. They watched
the video on a 19-inch monitor (resolution, 640 ×
480 pixels; refresh frequency, 85Hz) placed 60 cm
away from their eyes. The visual angle of the video
was 37.6° × 24.1°. Participants were randomly
shown a total of 60 video sequences comprising
both successful and failed free throw attempts at
three replay speeds with a five-second interval
between each sequence using Presentation® (Neu-
robehavioral Systems, Inc., USA). Participants were
told to look at a fixation point shown at the centre of
the screen for five seconds before the start of each
video sequence. During the interval after each free
 428 Y. Uchida et al.
Downloaded by [Meijo University] at 21:24 11 June 2014
Figure 1. (A) An sample video of a free-throw shooting as shown to the subjects. The video depicts the time from the beginning of body
movement to the top of ball trajectory. The movements at 100-ms intervals are shown in figure. (B) The three regions for fixation rate
analysis (B: ball trajectory region, U: upper body region, L: lower body region). Fixation rates within each region during the subject’s
observation were measured using an eye tracking system.
throw sequence, the participants verbally answered
as to whether the displayed free throw attempt would
be a success or a failure. They were told that it was
compulsory to answer even if they were not sure.
The experimenter recorded the answers manually.
Answering ‘successful’ to successful attempts and
‘failed’ to failed attempts were counted as correct
answers, while answering ‘failed’ to successful
attempts and ‘successful’ to failed attempts were
counted as incorrect answers.
While watching the video, the participants’ gazes
were tracked at a sampling rate of 30 Hz using an eye
tracker (Eyelink 2, SR Research Ltd., USA) placed
just anterior to the chinrest. Before the experiment,
we displayed nine calibration points on the screen
and requested the participants to look at the calib-
ration points in order to calibrate the location of
their gaze on the screen. We allowed participants to
move their eyes as soon as the video replays were
initiated.
Data analysis and statistics
To analyse psychophysical data, we calculated the
percentage of correct responses and incorrect
responses for IN and OUT shots.
We specified the model’s lower body region,
upper body region and ball trajectory region for
each video segment (visual angle: lower body region,
4.3° × 5.0°; upper body region, 4.3° × 4.4°; ball
trajectory region, 13.5° × 10.0°) (Figure 1B). We
calculated the proportion of the participants’ gazes
on each specified region using a custom-made
MATLAB programme (The MathWorks, Inc.,
USA) on the PC. The subject’s total gaze data
were then superimposed on the last frame of the
presented video.
A one-sample t-test was used to compare the mean
correct response rate with that of a chance level
(50%) for the three replay speeds in each group. We
also analysed the percentage of correct responses
using a two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA), with
group (players and novices) as between subject’s
effects and replay speed (slow, normal and fast) as
the other factor. Similarly, a three-way repeated
measures ANOVA (group × region × replay speed)
was used for evaluating changes in the fixation rate.
When an interaction was significant, simple main
effects were examined to see at which region the
effect of group became significant for each speed.
Fixation rates were also examined to determine the
region when the effect of speed became significant in
each group. Ryan’s method was used for a post hoc
test when main effects were found (Day & Quinn,
1989). The significance level for all statistical tests
was set at alpha = 0.05.
Results
The correct response rate for players at a normal
video speed was significantly higher than the chance
level (t(7) = 6.029, p = 0.0149, r = 0.92). A
 Temporal dynamics of visual search strategy 429

0.0491, η2 = 0.19). The main effect of speed was

Figure 2. The response rates for subjects watching the videos at
the three speeds (slow, normal and fast). The solid line represents
the responses of the basketball players, while the broken line
indicates the responses of the novices. A correct response rate of
50% indicates the chance level. An asterisk represents p < 0.05.
significant difference from the chance level was not
Downloaded by [Meijo University] at 21:24 11 June 2014
significant (F2,28 = 11.034, p = 0.0003, η2 = 0.44).
Post hoc analysis showed that the mean correct
response rate of the players was significantly higher
than that of the novices at the normal speed (p =
0.0159, r = 0.63, Ryan’s method). No significant
difference was observed between the players and
novices at the slow and fast speeds. The correct
response rate was around the chance level (50%) at
slow and fast speeds for the players. A similar result
was found for the novices at all video speeds; no
significant difference was observed among the three
video speeds (Figure 2).
When a three-way ANOVA (group × region × replay
speed) was applied to the fixation rate (Figure 3A
and B), the interaction effect of group × region of the
body × replay speed was significant (F4,56 = 2.636,
p = 0.0434, η2 = 0.16). The interactions of group ×
region at each replay speed were also significant (slow:

found under other conditions. When a two-way F2,84 = 12.433, p < .0001, η2 = 0.23; normal: F2,84 =
ANOVA (speed × group) was applied to the correct 18.115, p < .0001, η2 = 0.30; fast: F2,84 = 7.258,
response rate (Figure 2), a significant interaction was p = .0012, η2 = 0.15). The main effect of group showed
found between speed and group (F2,28 = 3.363, p = that at the normal replay speed, the mean fixation rate

Figure 3. (A) Typical examples of the simultaneously recorded eye position data while watching the videos at three speeds for one novice
(upper panels) and one basketball player (lower panels). Eye positions when a ball was released are indicated by arrows. (B) Fixation rate
within each body region at a given video speed as calculated from the eye position data. One asterisk represents p < 0.05, two, p < 0.01. For
each body region, fixation rate was compared among the three video speeds. For these data, one dagger represents p < 0.01 for Slow vs.
Fast. Two daggers represent p < 0.01 for Normal vs. Fast.
 430 Y. Uchida et al.
on the lower body region was significantly higher in the
players than in the novices (F1,126 = 26.172, p < .0001,
η2 = 0.17). Fixation on the upper body region was
significantly higher in the novices than in the players
(F1,126 = 25.140, p < .0001, η2 = 0.17) (Figure 3A and
B, centre panel). The difference between their mean
fixation rates was not significant in the ball trajectory
region. Novices fixated minimally on the lower body
region and focused on the upper body region. The
players had an almost equally distributed fixation
between the three regions. The fixation rate for the
slow video replay was similar to that of the normal
speed. The main effect of group at the slow video replay
showed that mean fixation rates for the lower body
region were significantly higher for the players, while
those for the upper region were significantly higher for
the novices (lower body region: F1,126 = 20.206,
p < .0001, η2 = 0.14; upper body region: F1,126 =
15.230, p = .0002, η2 = 0.11). The difference between
their mean fixation rates was not significantly different
Downloaded by [Meijo University] at 21:24 11 June 2014
for the ball trajectory region (Figure 3A and B, left
panel). Fixation patterns during fast video replay were
different from those of the normal and slow videos. The
main effect of group showed that the mean fixation rate
of the players in the lower and ball track regions was
significantly higher and lower, respectively, than that of
the novices (lower body region: F1,126 = 9.352,
p = 0.0027, η2 = 0.07; ball trajectory region: F1,126 =
9.994, p = 0.0020, η2 = 0.07), while the difference
between their mean fixation rates was not significant in
the upper body region (Figure 3A and B, right panel).
The fixation rates among replay speeds were also
compared for each region. As mentioned above, the
three-factor (group, region and replay speed) inter-
action effect was significant (F4,56 = 2.636, p =
.0434, η2 = 0.16). The interaction of region × replay
speed was significant in the players group (F4,56 =
3.199, p = .0195, η2 = 0.19), but not in the novices
group. The speed main effect showed that the mean
fixation rate of the ball trajectory region was signi-
ficant in the players group (F2,84 = 8.640, p = .0004,
η2 = 0.17). Post hoc analysis showed that the mean
fixation rate of the fast replay speed was significantly
lower in the ball trajectory region than in the other
comparisons (slow vs. fast: p = .0003, r = 0.68,
Ryan’s method; normal vs. fast: p = .0007, r = 0.63,
Ryan’s method).
Discussion
The physical movements of the shooter until the
release of the ball produce the conditions of ball
projection that determine the success or failure of the
shot (Button et al., 2003; Miller & Bartlett, 1993). It
had been speculated that basketball players could
predict shot outcomes by capturing variables in the
shooter’s knee, wrist and finger joint angles (Aglioti
et al., 2008). Following that, it was revealed that the
experienced basketball players’ viewing points were
distributed on the shooter’s lower body and arms
(Ishibashi et al., 2010).
The present study of visual search acitivity at a
normal speed showed a tendency consistent with the
results which were obtained by Ishibashi et al.
(2010). The novice group focused their gaze (fixa-
tion rate of more than 80%) initially on the upper
body region and subsequently on the ball’s trajectory
at normal video speeds. In contrast, the players
consecutively observed lower body regions, upper
body regions and ball trajectory regions in relatively
equal amounts. These results indicate that these
differences in visual search activity correspond to
the correct response rate being significantly higher in
the players than in the novices (Figure 2). In other
words, players may be able to detect visual informa-
tion for prediction by properly altering their gaze to
assess the shooter’s body movements. In contrast,
the novices appear to have fixed their gaze primarily
on the ball without deliberate intention for visual
information from the body, and this rendered them
unable to detect important clues for prediction from
the shooter’s movements. The eye movement strat-
egy and better perception of information utilised by
the players were undoubtedly acquired through daily
practice and frequent competition. The results
showed that the novices were more preoccupied
with the ball, while the skilled players adjusted their
gaze to places other than the ball. This same strategy
has also been reported for soccer (Williams &
Davids, 1998). Furthermore, skilled basketball
players make greater use of the relational visual
search strategy independent of local stimuli manip-
ulations than novices in the detection of configura-
tion changes in players’ and ball positions on a court
(Laurent, Ward, Williams, & Ripoll, 2006). Elite ice
hockey players control their gaze during a game.
Defenders turn their gaze towards the puck and
other objects or players with a continuously varying
ratio, depending on the phase of the game, to
identify visual cues to decide on appropriate and
required movements according to the situation
(Martell & Vickers, 2004).
Regarding the importance of temporal information
in prediction, an intrinsic, comfortable speed of
action called the preferred pace (PP) is known
to exist in each individual (Rimoldi, 1951). When
sports players observe an object in slow- and fast-
motion videos, they subjectively have an uncomfort-
able feeling that the velocity of the object is dissociated
from their own sense of movement. When tasks such
as walking, arm swinging and bicycle pedalling are
performed, the speed of action shows a high level of
temporal consistency that is specific to each individual
(Smoll, 1975). This temporal consistency has also

been reported in the basketball free throw, and the
time sequences of action patterns differ according to
the skill level (Schmidt, 2012). Thus, the PP can be
seen as a psychological standard for the judgement of
a set of actions in the overall movement perception
(Tajima & Choshi, 1999). Movements at a speed close
to the PP are perceived as syntonic movements and
those about 30–40% slower or faster than the PP are
seen as non-syntonic movements (Naruse, Sakuma, &
Hirai, 2001). This syntony between the presented
video speed and person’s sense of movement speed
may have influenced the player’s predictive skill and
visual search activities.
When experienced players viewed fast-motion
videos, the pattern of eye movements for visual
search activities was different from that of when
watching normal videos. Under the normal speed,
experienced players actively moved their gaze
according to their own psychological timed
sequences in order to extract appropriate informa-
Downloaded by [Meijo University] at 21:24 11 June 2014
tion from the video. However, in the case of fast-
motion videos, they appeared to utilise these same
psychological timed sequences of gaze alterations
which resulted in a decrease in the proportion of
gazes on the ball at the final stage of the video. This
led to a failure in the collection of information
concerning the ball movement. Additionally, tem-
poral information such as speed is naturally different
from that in actual movement situations. This
discrepancy could also be the cause of a decrease in
the rate of correct responses. As noted above, gazes
in novices were considered to mostly focus on the
movements of the ball and, thus, the proportion of
gazes to various regions did not change with the
video speed, either fast or slow.
No significant difference was observed in the
distribution of gazes among regions when slow-
motion and normal speed videos were watched by
both groups, which indicated no change in the visual
strategy. Therefore, the decrease in the percentage of
correct responses in the players was suggested to be
derived from the mismatch between temporal
information such as the movement time or speed,
and that of the real-time sequence. The results of the
fast and slow videos combined indicate that temporal
information such as speed and movements of spe-
cific body parts that change with phases of the action
are important for proper prediction of the shot. An
appropriate eye movement strategy is essential to
obtain this critical information.
If the prediction of shots had been made only with
spatial information, such as body shape and joint
angle, the prediction may have been easy for the
slow-motion videos and difficult for the fast-motion
videos, because more spatial information could be
obtained from the slower video. However, while the
players predicted the outcomes of free throws more
Temporal dynamics of visual search strategy 431
accurately than the novices for normal speed videos,
no significant difference was noted between the two
groups when viewing slow- or fast-motion videos.
Thus, temporal information was clearly indispens-
able to predict the outcome of free throws.
The results of the present study suggest that it is
difficult for players to predict the outcome of a free
throw unless they can use both spatial and temporal
information, instead of making a determination
based solely on spatial information. The results also
suggest that it may be important for them to look at
an appropriate point at an appropriate time. As a
future challenge, it is necessary to conduct detailed
analyses on eye movements to clarify the relationship
between spatial and temporal information in pre-
dicting free throws.
Conclusion
The basketball players participating in this study
were able to predict free throw success above the
chance level when viewing a normal speed video,
while the novices were not. While the players viewed
the shooters’ upper and lower body as well as shot
trajectory, the novices mostly focused on shot
trajectory. When viewing fast- and slow-speed vid-
eos, even the players could not predict free throw
accuracy at better than a chance level. Therefore, to
predict the success or failure of a free throw, the
experienced players utilised not only spatial cues
derived from the shooter’s body position, as shown
in previous studies, but also temporal clues that were
obtained with the apparently fixed temporal strategy
of altering eye movements.
Acknowledgements
The authors thank Dr. L. Crawshaw for English
editing, Dr. S. Kitazawa for experimental devices.
This study was supported by a Grant-in-Aid for
Young Scientists (B) from the Ministry of Educa-
tion, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology
(MEXT) of Japan (KAKENHI:23700685) to Y.
Uchida. The funders had no role in study design,
data collection and analysis, decision to publish or
preparation of the manuscript. The authors declare
no conflicts of interest.
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