2017 2nd International Conference on Frontiers of Sensors Technologies
Research on Urban Saturation Load Forecasting Based on Logistic Algorithm
Peng Ye1, Shan Li1, Miao He1
School of Electric Power
Shenyang Institute of Engineering
Shenyang, Liaoning, China
e-mail: yepeng_126@sina.com
Abstract—Urban saturation load is the key index to determine
the final scale of power grid development in urban power
network planning. The research on urban power load
forecasting has important guiding significance and practical
value for the construction and planning of urban power
network in the future. In this paper, a new method based on
the saturated load density was proposed for the prediction of
urban spatial load. Firstly, the saturated load density curve of
different land use types is predicted based on the logistic
saturated load forecasting model, and the validity of logistic
curve model is verified by absolute value error analysis
Secondly, the land situation and changing state are predicted
by government planning. Finally, according to the saturated
load density curves of different land types and the area of
different land use types, the distribution of urban future
spatial load is predicted, which is provided a theoretical
reference for further research of city spatial load forecasting.
Keywords-saturated load density; urban power grid; load
forecasting; logistic algorithm; error analysis
I. INTRODUCTION
With the rapid development of industrialization and
urbanization in China, the problems of urban power grid
development and urban development are becoming more and
more serious due to the limitation of urban land resources
and environmental capacity. With the rapid development of
the city, if the lack of long-term planning of urban power
grid is likely to trigger a large number of frequent changes
and expansion work. Urban saturation load is the key index
to determine the final scale of power grid development in
urban power network planning [1]. Saturation load forecast
of city is a new concept proposed in recent years in the city
grid planning. Compared with the traditional load forecasting
methods, the time span of urban saturation load forecasting is
often larger, and used widely, including many aspects of the
city's function orientation and energy resource condition.
Based on the analysis and prediction of urban saturated load,
and the vision of grid planning target guidance recent power
grid planning and construction, are not only conducive to the
promotion of urban power grid construction and urban
economic and social development, but also conducive to the
coordination of urban planning. Therefore, it is of great
significance and practical value to carry out the prediction of
978-1-5090-4860-1/17/$31.00 ©2017 IEEE
Mingli Zhang2, Zhuoran Song2, Yinyou Wang2,
Xinyang Deng2, Yi Liang2, Zhe Shi2, Na Zhang2
Economic Research Institute
State Grid Liaoning Electric Power Company Limited.
Shenyang, Liaoning, China
e-mail: 746770169@qq.com
urban saturation load, which is of great significance to the
future power grid construction and urban construction.
The logistic curve is used to analyze and predict the city
electric saturation load in the literature [2-3]. Parameters of
logistic curve were obtained through the use of mathematical
methods of saturated load. According to the logistic curve
equation, the saturation time, saturation value and the
saturation degree of each period was obtained. The
macroscopic method based on saturation load forecasting of
per capita electricity consumption and the microscopic
method for saturated load forecasting based on urban load
density were adopted in the literature [4], and the overall
level, time of arrival and spatial distribution of the electric
saturation load in the central urban area of Tianjin were
studied and predicted through the macroscopic method based
on saturation load forecasting of per capita electricity
consumption and the microscopic method for saturated load
forecasting based on urban load density. In the literature [5],
the per capita electricity consumption method was used to
predict the regional saturation load. The application of neural
network model in medium and long term load forecasting
was introduced in the literature [6]. The system dynamics
modeling method and its application to the prediction of
saturation load were introduced in the literature [7-9]. The
above documents are mostly for the saturated load
characteristics and saturated load forecasting research,
without considering the spatial characteristics of the load,
and the effect of the load saturation characteristics on the
prediction results is not considered and cannot achieve the
urban vision of the space load planning and calculation.
In this paper, saturation load density prediction algorithm
was introduced in the space load forecasting method. Firstly,
the saturated load density curve of different land use types is
predicted based on the logistic saturated load forecasting
model, and the validity of logistic curve model is verified by
absolute value error analysis Secondly, the land use situation
and the area change of different land use types are predicted.
Finally, according to the saturated load density curves of
different land types and the area of different land use types,
the distribution of urban future spatial load is predicted,
which is provided a theoretical reference for further research
of city spatial load forecasting.

 II. BASIC THEORY OF SATURATED LOAD FORECASTING the determination of the equation can be used Yule method.
The process of Yule method for solving the constant a, b, k
A. Saturation Load Characteristics in the logistic curve is as follows:
Saturated load refers to the development of urban and 1
By using the relationship between yt and
rural construction to a certain stage, affected by the k  aebt
population, land, environment and other resource conditions, 1
the total load growth rate slow down or even stop the growth yt 1 , the equation can be derived as follows:
k  ae   
b t 1
period of the load. The relationship between saturation load
density and per capita GDP, population density, land nature
yt 1  yt
and regional economic planning and layout is closely related.
yt 1
1  e   k 1  e  y ˄˅
b b
t
Its general trend of growth with social and economic growth
index, after the full development the regional power demand yt 1  yt
will tend to be saturated. The load growth curve of a certain Among them: st , D 1  eb , E k 1  eb  ,
area is shown in Figure 1. The growth of the curve is yt 1
presented as "S" curve. From the analysis of figure 1: load the equation (2) can be simplified as:
growth first experienced procumbent growth stage, and then
after a rapid growth stage, enter the low speed slow growth st D  E yt t 1, 2,3, N  1 ˄˅
stage, that is, the saturation load stage. In the regional power
supply, due to the limited capacity of the power supply Among them, the coefficients D and E in the equation (3)
equipment, and the available land area is limited, so the can be determined by the least-square method, and when the
smaller the area of the study area, the more obvious the coefficients D and E are determined, the value of b and k
characteristics of "S" type [10]. can be obtained by conversion.

­
Load/MW
Saturated
zone
Rapid growth
Flat growth area
area
Time/year
Figure 1. Power load "S" type growth curve.
When an area power load is in the saturation stage, it has
the following characteristics: (1) After experiencing a rapid
growth in the post, the power load reaches a high level, and
shows a steady growth of low speed; (2) Economic scale is
relatively large, and the industrial structure is more
reasonable and stable; (3) The nature of the land is an
important factor affecting the load, if in the vision of a city,
Land use from low load density to high load density change
of the land is relatively small, it can be considered that the
area has been temporarily into the saturation stage [11-12].
B. Mathematical Model of Saturated Load Forecasting
The "S" curve is usually obtained by fitting the logistic
model. The function expression for logistic model is as
follows:
1 load. By dividing the total amount of growth into the area of
yt ˄˅
k  aebt
Among them: t represents the time variable; yt for the
power load value; a, b, and k are constants and k>0, a>0, b<0.
The solution of constant a, b and k in the logistic curve and

°1 ª N § 1 · N  N  1 º ½ °
a exp ® «¦ ln ¨  k ¸  b » ¾ ˄˅
N x
° «¬ t 1 © t ¹ 2 »¼ °
¿
¯
All parameters of the logistic curve model can be
determined by the above process.
III. STEPS FOR THE PREDICTION OF SPACE SATURATION
LOAD
The main steps of the prediction of the spatial saturation
load include: (1) Prediction of saturated load density of
various land use types. Based on planning area of land type
area of the development of the situation, area values of
different land use types are predicted. (2) Prediction of space
saturation load [13].
A. Prediction of Saturated Load Density of Various Land
Use Types
According to different power and land use characteristics,
the power users can be divided into several types according
to the different space saturated load forecasting, which can
be divided into 4 categories: industrial, commercial,
residential and municipal. Different types of land use have
different load characteristics, load growth shows different
saturation load density curve. In recent years, the state has
strengthened the user demand side management, so the load
data of all kinds of users can be relatively complete
collection. In this paper, the logistic curve fitting is used to
predict the total amount of growth of all kinds of saturated
various types of land, the saturated load density curve of all
kinds of load can be obtained. Then, Based on planning area
of land type area of the development of the situation, the land
use situation and the area change of different land use types
are predicted [14].
B. Prediction of Space Saturation Load
The method of space saturation load forecasting is
illustrated by the example of the residential area. The area of
land use Si multiplied by the area of land type saturated load
density Ui (i=1,2,... , n, n for the total number of land types),
the predictive value w j of the future saturation load of the cell
j(j=1,2,... , m, m is divided into the total number) is
obtained[15]. That is:

wj Si Ui ˄˅

IV. CASE ANALYSIS

(b) Industrial power load density curve
In this paper, taking the actual project as an example of a
planning area, we use the above method to forecast the
spatial electric load. In order to facilitate the research, the
different types of land use planning in urban areas are
divided into four types, that is: municipal land, industrial
land, commercial land, residential land. In the process of
power load forecasting, the two part of the work is mainly
completed. (1) According to the historical data of power load
density, the logistic curve model is used to predict the load
density curve of different types of different land use types. (2)
Based on planning area of land type area of the development
of the situation, the land use situation and the area change of
different land use types are predicted. Finally, according to
different kinds of load density curve of different land use
types and area changes, the change of the power load of the (c) Commercial power load density curve
residential area in the future can be obtained. The change of
the space power load analysis and the process is as follows.
(1) The calculation of load density curve. In this paper,
historical data are used as the data of various types of load
density of different land use types in the planning area of
2005-2014. By using the historical data, the logistic curve
model is used to simulate the development and evolution of
the load density of different land use types in the planning 
area within 2015-2030 years. Among themˈThe parameters
of equation (1)ǃ(2) and (3) are a=5, b=-4, k=2, D 0.98 ,
E 1.96 . The logistic curve based on the municipal,
industrial, commercial, residential power load density curves
are shown in Figure 2.
(d) Resident power load density curve
Figure 2. Power load density curve based on logistic curve for different
land use types.

The municipal, industrial, commercial, residential power

load density curve is shown in Figure 2. When a city
developed to a certain stage, municipal, industrial,
commercial, residential four types of land uses will reach
saturation state, municipal, industrial, commercial,
residential power load density curve trend also will be a
steady state (that is, the power load density reaches
saturation state). In order to verify the validity of logistic
curve model, in this paper, the load density of 2013 and 2014
is forecasted by using the data of 2005-2012 in the planning
area, and the absolute value of the predicted value and the
actual value are analyzed, the analysis results are shown in
(a) Municipal power load density curve
table 1.


TABLE I. POWER LOAD DENSITY FORECASTING VALUE AND ERROR forecasting. Based on the analysis of Figure 2 and table 1,
ABSOLUTE VALUE ANALYSIS
the power load density forecasting method based on logistic
Year Land use Actual value Predicted value Absolute curve is effective. According to the historical data in a
type (MW/km^2) (MW/km^2) error certain area, prediction charts of classification load density
Municipal 1.32 1.38 4.38% based on logistic curve model in 2021and 2029 are shown in
Industrial 91.9 90.10 1.96%
2013 Figure 3.
Commercial 6.93 6.81 1.80%
Residents 5.11 5.24 2.57% For the convenience of the following study, according to
Municipal 1.64 1.61 1.72% figure 4 in the municipal, industrial, commercial, and
Industrial 95.41 97.99 2.70% residential power load density curves, in 2017, 2021, 2025,
2014
Commercial 7.17 7.38 2.95% 2029, municipal, industrial, commercial, and residential
Residents 5.8 5.73 1.15% corresponding to the power load density values are
calculated . 2017, 2021, 2025, 2029 municipal, industrial,
As shown in table 1, the absolute value of the power load commercial, residents of the corresponding power load
density of different land use types in 2013 and 2014 are less density values are shown in table 2.
than 5%, which can meet the accuracy requirements of load

 
(a) Distribution density of different types of load in 2021 based on logistic (b) Distribution density of different types of load in 2029 based on logistic
curve model curve model
Figure 3. Prediction charts of classification load density in a certain area based on logistic curve model.

TABLE II. POWER LOAD DENSITY PREDICTION OF DIFFERENT LAND (2) According to 2017, 2021, 2025, 2029 planning area
USE TYPES
of land type area of the development of the situation, 2017,
Power load 2021, 2025, 2029 municipal, industrial, commercial,
density Municipal Industrial Commercial Residents residential land area can be forecasted respectively, as shown
(MW/km^2) in table 3.
2017 year 2.12 115 8.7 6.94
(3) The calculation of the power load of cell space. 2017,
2021 year 2.58 125 9.4 7.56
2025 year 2.76 128 9.92 7.91
2021, 2025, 2029, the planning area of the various types of
2029 year 2.94 130 10.29 8.11
power load forecasting can be calculated according to the
table 2, 3 data and formula (5). In 2017, 2021, 2025 and
TABLE III. AREA VALUES OF DIFFERENT LAND USE TYPES IN 2029, the forecast values of various land use types in the
PLANNING AREA planning area are shown in table 4.
Land area Municipal Industrial Commercial Residents
TABLE IV. SPATIAL LOAD FORECAST VALUE OF EACH LAND TYPE IN
/km^2 THE PLANNING AREA

Year Load /MW Municipal Industrial Commercial Residents

2017 53 15.5 8.5 40
2021 60 18 10 46 Year
2025 63 19.7 12.3 49.6 2017 112.36 1782.5 73.95 277.6
2029 65 20.5 13.5 52


 2021 154.8 2250 94 347.8
2025 173.8 2560 122.1 392.4
2029 191.1 2665 138.92 421.7
V. CONCLUSIONS
In this paper, a method based on logistic curve model for
spatial load forecasting of distribution network was proposed.
Dynamic development process of urban land use is simulated
based on rough set and cellular automata theory. Saturated
load density curve of different land use types are predicted
based on logistic saturated load forecasting model. As the
same time, the land use situation and the area change of
different land use types are predicted based on planning area
of land type area of the development of the situation. Finally,
according to the saturated load density curves of different
land types and the area of different land use types, the
distribution of urban future spatial load is predicted, which is
provided a theoretical reference for further research of city
spatial load forecasting.
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