Contact:

Tim Lim
Idaho Voices for Change Now
press@idahovoices.com
August 10th, 2018

Support for Medicaid Expansion is Surging + Path to Victory

A new survey conducted by Clarity Campaign Labs on behalf of Idaho

Voices for Change Now shows support for the Medicaid Expansion
Initiative to be surging and a path to victory for Paulette Jordan. The
survey was conducted between August 2nd to 5th, using automated calls
to landlines and live calls to wireless phones of likely 2018 general
election voters in Idaho. The sample included 826 voters and the margin
of error is +/- 3.19% at a 95% confidence interval.

Since last month, Lieutenant Governor Brad Little’s lead is down to single
digits: 36% expressed support for Little, 28% support Jordan, 5%
support third-party candidates, and 31% are undecided.

The most promising numbers for Jordan are around health care and
Proposition 2, the Medicaid Expansion Initiative. The poll showed the
Yes vote at 45%, No at 19% and Unsure at 36%. Amongst the Yes vote,
20% are supporting Little and 64% are supporting Jordan.

The most effective message to erode support for Little amongst

persuadable voters is to point out his inability to take a position on the
issues that affect Idaho voters the most, shown by his non-position on the
Medicaid Expansion Initiative.

The tested message: “Opponents of Brad Little say that he doesn’t take

positions on the issues that affect Idaho
voters the most. For example, he

won’t take a position on Medicaid expansion in the state, which would

provide healthcare to 62,000 more Idahoans

who need it.”

After hearing the statement, overall 42% of voters were less likely to
support Little but specifically 74% of voters who support the Medicaid
Expansion say that it would make them less likely to support him.

Jordan's path to victory is clear: she needs to consolidate the Yes vote on
the Medicaid Expansion Initiative and Little must be tied to the No
vote. Little's non-position on the issue as well as the fact that the state
party and the GOP candidate for Lieutenant Governor have both come
out against the initiative will help frame this discussion.

Additional demographic trends to watch for: Jordan is leading Little 41%

to 21% among Independent voters, who makes up about a third of the
electorate. Among Independent women, Jordan's lead is even stronger
with 47% support to Little's 20%. Jordan is narrowly leading among all
women voters 34% to 33%. 71% of Idaho voters reported that
healthcare is a very important issue to them. Among those voters, Jordan
is leading 53% to 27% for Little.