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• Recap from L3
• Compute theoretical solution for one experiment of L3
• Introduce the continuous Markov process
• Step-by-step approach
• Solve examples
• Solve bigger problems, using a computer
Literature – further reading
Recap from L3
For example:
1⁄2 1⁄2
𝜋1 𝜋2 = 𝜋1 𝜋2 and 𝜋1 +𝜋2 = 1
1⁄4 3⁄4
gives:
1 1
𝜋1 + 𝜋2 = 𝜋1 𝜋1 = 1/3
2 4 →
𝜋2 = 2/3
𝜋1 + 𝜋2 = 1
Compute theoretical solution for one
experiment from L3
Starting in state 1.
5⁄6 1⁄6
𝑷=
1⁄3 2⁄3
15
5⁄6 1⁄6 0,6667 0,3333
𝑷𝟏𝟏 = = 𝑃𝑃 =
1⁄3 2⁄3 0,6666 0,3334
Compute theoretical solution for one
experiment from L3
𝝅𝑷 = 𝝅
5⁄6 1⁄6
𝝅 =𝝅
1⁄3 2⁄3
5
𝜋 + 13𝜋2 = 𝜋1
6 1 3 𝑖𝑖 1 5
� 𝜋1 + 𝜋2 = 𝜋2
1 2
6
𝜋1 + 13(1 − 𝜋1 ) = 𝜋1 ⇒
6 3
𝜋1 + 𝜋2 = 1
(56−13−1)𝜋1 =−13 3 1 2
⇒ −6𝜋1 =−3 ⇒ 𝜋1 =3
𝜋2 = 1 − 𝜋1 = 13
Introduce the continuous Markov process
Below is not a proof, nor a complete derivation. Just a help to understand the relation
between discrete and continuous case.
Remember from L2, constant failure rate λ. The probability that a component will fail
within ∆t is approximately λ∆t. Introduce repair rate µ.
1 − 𝜆Δ𝑡 𝜆Δ𝑡
𝑃=
𝜇Δ𝑡 1 − 𝜇Δ𝑡
This is a probability matrix and we have previously learnt that the limiting state
probabilities are found by: 𝝅𝑷 = 𝝅. Now, let I denote identity matrix.
𝝅𝑷𝑰 = 𝝅𝑰 ⇒ 𝝅 𝑷 − 𝑰 = 𝟎
−𝜆Δ𝑡 𝜆Δ𝑡
𝑸𝛥𝛥 = 𝑷 − 𝑰 =
𝜇Δ𝑡 −𝜇Δ𝑡
Divide both sides with ∆t and denote the resulting matrix Q. The equation to find the
stationary states becomes:
−𝜆 𝜆
𝝅𝝅 = 𝟎 with 𝑸 =
𝜇 −𝜇
Introduce the continuous Markov process
−𝜆 𝜆
Yielding the “transition rate matrix” 𝑸 = and we
𝜇 −𝜇
solve the limit state probabilities by solving 𝝅𝝅 = 𝟎.
• Example 1:
• Unit: Events/hr
• Calculate:
• Limiting probabilities for state 1, 2, 3
• Availability of system if 3 is failure state and if 2 and 3
are failure states.
Solve example - solution
2
FR: 0,02 f/y
MTTR: 1 week
1 FR: 0,1 f/y
MTTR: 48 h 3
MTTR: 1 week
Solve bigger problem, using a computer