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FEATURE ARTICLE

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2018 R&D Trends Forecast


Results from the Innovation Research Interchange’s Annual Survey
After last year’s muted response, this year’s survey reveals a return of optimism.

Innovation Research Interchange

Each year, Innovation Research Interchange (IRI), formerly Profile of Participants


the Industrial Research Institute, asks R&D and innovation The 95 companies participating come from diverse industry
leaders about their actual activity and R&D budgets in the segments (Figure 1) and are mostly medium to large
past year and their expectations and projected R&D invest- corporations (Table 1) with annual R&D investments
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ment levels for the year ahead. The survey also explores the averaging more than $50 million (Table 2). The majority
geographical dispersion of R&D facilities, the top concerns of respondents have global reach; taken together, surveyed
of R&D managers, their views about a variety of macro companies operate at least 378 labs outside the United
trends, and the factors leading to variance between actual States, spread across 49 countries. China continues to host
and projected spending levels for the year. the largest share of these labs, with 45 companies reporting
In the 2016 survey, respondents reported expecting labs located there, followed by Germany (33), the UK (25),
a period of inertia in 2017 or at least a slowing of the pre- India (21), France (19), and Canada (18).
vious year’s growth. This year’s survey, administered in late
2017 to ask about 2018 expectations, reveals a return to the Expectations for R&D Investment
optimistic sentiment seen in the 2015 forecast. The overall The data collected by IRI’s R&D Trends Forecast survey is
sense of this year’s results is that energy is high, with sur- broken down into several categories designed to offer
vey participants expecting to create new technologies and focused glimpses of specific areas of R&D investment. The
new businesses, hire more staff, and invest more heavily survey’s first and primary goal is to map expectations
in training that staff for the demands of an ever-changing regarding spending levels for the coming year. Historical
marketplace. data, viewed through the lens of IRI’s sea change index,
This year, the analysis is based on data from 95 gives this annualized snapshot a bit of context, and
respondent organizations, 63 of which are IRI member industry-specific analyses capture R&D spending
organizations. Some respondents left some questions expectations, and the forces driving them, for representa-
unanswered; the average number of responses to each tive industries. Analyses of R&D leaders’ views on the
question on the survey is approximately 86. Due to the forces shaping the business ecosystem over the coming
changing membership of IRI and the voluntary nature of years add context to the other data.
the survey, the mix of companies represented fluctuates After four consecutive years of mostly positive growth
each year. However, we believe there are enough responses expectations, with a minor slowdown heading into 2017,
from a large enough cross-section of industries to provide the 2017 survey results show R&D spending expectations
reliable insight into general trends. climbing again. Participants report a highly optimistic out-
look going into 2018, with strong focus on investing in
the creation of new technologies and new businesses and
Innovation Research Interchange (IRI) is an inclusive membership organ-
ization with nearly 200 global members in private-sector companies and a rising interest in big data analytics, artificial intelligence,
federally funded laboratories. Founded in 1938, we lead and advance the machine learning, and all things digital.
field of innovation management by creating contemporary practices. Some Overall, 59 percent of respondents reported expecting an
of the world’s most widely adopted models—including open innovation,
increase in R&D spending in 2018; only 29 percent reported
the front end of innovation, and Stage-Gate—were born from the work
of our members. We value strength in cooperation and partner with other anticipating little or no change, and 13 percent are expecting
organizations at the forefront of developments in innovation management, a decrease in total R&D spending (Table 3). Breaking spend-
creating a hub for all to convene and contribute in an experimental, non- ing projections down by focus reveals significant interest in
competitive, and noncommercial environment. For more information about
IRI, visit www.iriweb.org
support for new business ventures, with 67 percent of
respondents expecting an increase in spending in this
DOI: 10.1080/08956308.2018.1399021
Copyright © 2018, Innovation Research Interchange. category and only 2 percent expecting a decrease. Support
Published by Taylor & Francis. All rights reserved. for existing businesses is expected to take a hit this year, with

Research-Technology Management . January—February 2018 j 23


respondents expect funding to remain
unchanged (47 percent). Respondents
indicated that funding for technical or
customer services is also expected to
remain unchanged in 2018.
We asked survey respondents to
evaluate the impact of several policy
changes in the United States and
elsewhere on their R&D budgets.
For the most part, respondents did
not see these policy shifts as having
much impact on their budgets; most
reported they anticipated no effect
on 2018 spending. However, changes
in environmental policies and a relax-
ation of some business regulations
were seen as likely to have a positive
effect on business while changes in
immigration policies, uncertainty
caused by political transitions like
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FIGURE 1. Respondents by industry


Brexit (the United Kingdom’s likely
exit from the European Union), and an expected decline
most respondents (53 percent) expecting no change and
in US federal investment in R&D were seen as likely to have
29 percent expecting a decrease in financial support; only
a more negative effect on businesses (Figure 2).
12 percent reported expecting an increase in support for
Finally, respondents indicated that they are expecting
existing business. Directed basic research, a spending
moderate growth in professional R&D staff hiring
category that historically gets little support, surprisingly saw
(80 percent expect hiring to increase or remain the same)
more expectations for growth than decline this year
and stronger growth in new graduate hiring (97 percent
(19 percent versus 12 percent, respectively), although most
expect new graduate hiring to increase or remain the
TABLE 1. Respondent organizations by corporate revenue
same). Two new questions on this year’s survey asked
Revenue* N
respondents about their expectations regarding investment
in R&D staff training and development this year compared
<1 3
with 2017 and expectations for senior staff retirements
1–10 0
relative to last year. In response to the first question,
11–100 1 89 percent of respondents indicated that they expect
101–1,000 18 funding for training to increase or remain the same—
1,001–5,000 37 perhaps a reflection of the increased hiring. In regards to
5,001–10,000 15 expectations for retirement of senior staff, 91 percent of
10,001–50,000 12 respondents expect an increase or no change from 2017;
50,001–100,000 5 only 5 percent expect a relative decrease in retirements.
>100,000 2
I don’t know 2 Trends Over Time
*in million US$ Comparing the results of this survey with past years’
editions provides an invaluable view of trends as they
TABLE 2. Respondent organizations by R&D investment emerge over time. These trends are visualized via IRI’s
R&D Investment* N sea change index, which is calculated by subtracting the
<1 0 number of respondents who anticipate a negative change
1–5 9 (reductions in spending of 0 percent or more) from the
6–10 6 number who anticipate a positive change (increases in
11–50 23
spending of 1 percent or more) and normalizing the data
to a 100-point scale. The range of the index varies from
51–100 14
100 to þ100 percent.
101–500 24
It is important to note that the trends visualized in the
501–1,000 6 sea change index may run counter to the trends seen in
>1,000 7 the annual data, as the sea change index captures evolution
I don’t know 6 over time rather than the snapshot provided by the annual
*in million US$ analysis. This year, however, the annual data and the

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TABLE 3. Expectations for 2018 R&D spending relative to 2017
How do you expect 2018 to compare with 2017 with regard to. . . Increase Decrease No Change N/A Don’t know
Total R&D Expenditure 55% 14% 28% 0% 2%
Capital Spending for R&D 28% 19% 49% 0% 4%
Targeted R&D/Sales Ratio 19% 14% 55% 7% 5%
Support for Existing Businesses 14% 29% 53% 1% 2%
Support for New Business 67% 2% 26% 1% 4%
Directed Basic Research 19% 12% 47% 16% 6%
Technical Service/Customer Support 14% 12% 69% 2% 2%
Training/Development of R&D Staff 27% 7% 62% 1% 2%
Retirement of Senior Staff 49% 5% 42% 1% 2%

trends over time data both suggest an overall positive positive upswings from last year. The big change in this
sentiment in most spending categories, with a leveling year’s results is the large downturn in sentiment regarding
off of highly optimistic sentiment over the past three support for existing businesses.
years. Since 2015, the sea change for total R&D spending
indicates a strong rise in optimism (Figure 3). This opti- Trends by Industry Sector
mism continues going into 2018, although to a slightly The survey asks for information about participants’
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lesser degree for overall R&D spending than for other industry segment; the data are analyzed by industry
categories. This picture supports the annual analysis, which segment to examine where the biggest changes are taking
also shows an overall positive sentiment; it also supports place and which factors are most affecting particular
the notion that optimism is holding steady despite concerns industries. To be included in the segmentation data, an
about the state of innovation and the economy. industry sector must be represented by at least 5 percent
Breaking total R&D spending into its constituent parts of respondents. This year, qualifying industrial segments
provides a more detailed view of the changes taking place, included chemicals (24 companies), food/beverage (11),
showing where sentiment is changing and how (Figure 4). industrial equipment (11), consumer products (7), con-
In this year’s survey, anticipated total R&D spending can struction companies (7), and government/nonprofit (6).
be seen leveling off while anticipated spending on new The data on spending across these segments largely align
business projects and directed basic research both show with the overall survey results, with a few exceptions
(Figure 5). One of those exceptions is
in total spending. The overall sea
change index for total R&D spending
hovers just above þ40 percent, a highly
positive rating, but the segmentation
analysis shows consumer product and
government/nonprofit organizations
anticipating declines in 2018 R&D
budgets. These two sectors show a
similar downturn in sentiment around
capital spending for R&D as well.
Segmentation also offers some
interesting perspectives on the over-
all data. Some trends appear to make
a stronger showing when data are
segmented by industry, skewing
more strongly either positive or
negative in particular industries. For
instance, sentiment regarding sup-
port for existing businesses is nega-
tive in the overall data and in
almost every segment, but industrial
equipment manufacturers expect an
increase in this category. Similarly,
while there is rising optimism in
most industrial segments, and in
FIGURE 2. Anticipated effects of recent policy actions on 2018 R&D budgets
the sample as a whole (with the

2018 R&D Trends Forecast January—February 2018 j 25


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FIGURE 3. Sea change index for overall R&D spending, 2000–2018

FIGURE 4. Sea change index for R&D spending by type, 2000–2018

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FIGURE 5. Changes in sea change indices by industry

2018 R&D Trends Forecast January—February 2018 j 27


R&D spending, but a third (34
percent) reported that actual budgets
were higher than forecasted.
To help explain such variance, we
ask respondents to indicate from a
list of options the top three factors
in budget changes. Changing busi-
ness conditions was most often
selected as most important in driving
differences in projected versus actual
budgets (Figure 6). A change in
emphasis on growth and strategy
changes emerged as the other lead-
ing reasons for budget alterations.
These are expected to top this list this
year since the direction of change
was positive. Lack of personnel,
schedule delays, and lack of technical
success would all be reasons for a
decline in budgets. This year’s unex-
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pected increase in budgets would


FIGURE 6. Factors in differences between projected and actual 2017 spending best be explained by changes in the
market and in company strategy to
exception of support for existing businesses), government meet those changing conditions. Segmentation analysis
and nonprofit organizations reported expecting a decline shows a similar breakdown of primary factors across indus-
or no change in every category except the retirement of tries (Table 4).
senior staff (which is not necessarily a positive data point).
So while industry seems to have a highly optimistic out- Collaboration
look, government/nonprofit agencies appear to be strug- In addition to spending expectations, the survey asks about
gling as we head into 2018. participant expectations for five categories of R&D collabor-
Another segment that appears to be struggling is construc- ation (Table 5). These responses allow us to see whether the
tion. Although construction industry respondents report market is trending toward or away from collaborative
positive expectations for total R&D spending, capital spend- approaches and assess how much R&D organizations expect
ing, and investments in R&D staff development, the industry to work with other organizations, including universities and
appears to be stagnating in every other category, with little or federal labs, in their efforts to innovate. The big picture for
no change expected across the other spending categories. industry collaboration is overwhelmingly positive heading
into 2018. The sea change index shows that respondents
are more optimistic about growth in external collaborations
How Did We Do Last Year? of all kinds than they were last year (Figure 7).
In order to contextualize our annual forecast, we ask One area worth highlighting is expectations for participa-
respondents about their actual R&D budgets for the tion in alliances and joint R&D ventures. This category has
previous year; we then compare these responses to the historically been the strongest indicator of industry collabor-
projections from last year’s survey. In this year’s round, ation trends, capturing each industry’s expectations for
almost half of the respondent companies (45 percent) saw collaborative work on R&D projects. Over the previous
no difference between their actual and projected 2017 two years, optimism in this category had halved, from

TABLE 4. Most significant factors in differences between actual and projected 2017 spending, by industry
Changing Changed Lack of
business/ emphasis Strategy Lack of Schedule technical
market conditions on growth change personnel delays success
Construction 57% — — 29% 14% —
Consumer Products 72% 14% — 14% — —
Food/Beverage 27% 45% 19% — 9% —
Government/Nonprofit 66% — — — 17% 17%
Industrial Equipment 9% 28% 45% 9% 9% —
Chemicals 30% 26% 9% 13% 22% —
All 37% 23% 14% 12% 12% 2%

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TABLE 5. Expectations for 2018 collaboration efforts relative to 2017
How do you expect 2018 to compare with 2017 with regard to. . . Increase Little to no change Decrease N/A I don’t know
Participation in R&D alliances 50% 39% 0% 10% 1%
Participation in R&D consortia 26% 56% 4% 12% 2%
Acquisition of IP through M&A 35% 40% 1% 20% 4%
Contracts/grants with academia 37% 48% 11% 4% 0%
Contracts with government labs 13% 57% 6% 19% 5%
Crowdsourcing/Open innovation competitions 25% 32% 1% 39% 3%
Creation of spinoffs based on developed technology 17% 40% 0% 42% 1%

þ40 percent to around þ20 percent; these data suggested a rarely has either experienced the emergence and scaling
decline in sentiment towards collaboration. This year’s up of a new product in a short time.
results, however, show participation in alliances and Finally, the overall showing in sentiment toward
joint ventures rising again, surging to a five-year high of contracts with federal labs was positive, but very few
þ50 percent. industrial segments reported expecting an increase in
Analyzing collaboration data across industry segments such contracts—but neither did any segment expect a
reveals no significant differences from the overall picture decline in federal lab contracts. On the whole, sentiment
(Figure 8). Several sectors appear to expect no real change toward collaboration is highly positive heading into 2018,
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in collaborative stances in 2018, but in most cases, the among survey respondents as a whole and across industrial
nature of the industry offers a strong potential explanation sectors.
for the continued stability. The construction sector, for
example, shows little change in expectations for contracts Global R&D
with federal labs or academia; as construction firms do To track shifting global investment trends, we ask survey
not tend to rely on these institutions for R&D, this finding respondents in which countries their organizations
is not surprising. A similar explanation may account for the maintain R&D facilities. These data show that trends
lack of change in expectations for spinoffs in both construc- toward an increasingly globalized R&D approach continue.
tion companies and industrial equipment manufacturers. In 2017, responding organizations have labs in every
Both sectors work with long-term development cycles; region of the globe (Table 6), and in nearly 50 countries

FIGURE 7. Sea change index for collaborative activities, 2000–2018

2018 R&D Trends Forecast January—February 2018 j 29


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FIGURE 8. Changes in sea change indices for collaborative activities by industry

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TABLE 6. Location of R&D labs by region TABLE 8. Percent of R&D spending outside the United States
Region N % N
Western Europe 139 0–10% 35%
Eastern Europe & Russia 16 11–25% 26%
Middle East & North Africa 12 26–50% 15%
East & Southeast Asia 97 51–75% 6%
South America 23 76–100% 15%
North & Central America 118 I don’t know 4%
Scandinavia & Baltics 14
Oceana 43
Africa 3
indicating their top three choices from a list of common
concerns. In this year’s data, as in the past six years, respon-
Total 465
dents reported as their most significant concern balancing
their organizations’ short- and long-term R&D objectives
(Table 7). Most respondent organizations spend between 0 (Figure 9).
and 25 percent of their R&D budget outside the United Determining the categories that factor most heavily into
States (Table 8). Taken together, these responses indicate the concerns of R&D leaders beyond this clear leader,
that international R&D investments remain healthy and however, is somewhat tricky. In this portion of the survey,
stable. each respondent is given three votes, one for each of his or
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her top three concerns. Each concern listed therefore has


Top Concerns four numbers associated with it in the data: the number
As a way to track emerging issues in R&D management, we of respondents who named that item their top concern,
ask respondents to rank their top concerns for the coming the number who said it was their second highest
year—to name the things that keep them up at night, concern, the number who said it was their third highest
concern, and the total number of votes across all three
TABLE 7. Number of organizations maintaining R&D labs by possible rankings. These data provide a nuanced view of
country R&D leaders’ concerns. For instance, building and main-
Country N Country N taining an innovation culture attracted the second highest
United States 87 Switzerland 5 number of votes overall (after balancing short- and
China 45 Indonesia 4 long-term objectives), but it was quite low on the list of
Germany 33 Austria 3 top concerns, attracting only about 7 percent of all “top
concern” votes. Likewise, integrating technology planning
United Kingdom 25 Chile 3
and business strategy comes in third overall but just fourth
India 21 Denmark 3
in “top concern” votes. The category that drew the second
France 19 Finland 3 most votes for top concern, gaining senior management
Canada 18 Poland 3 support for tech innovation, is fifth in terms of overall
Italy 16 Russia 3 votes. Identifying disruptive technology ranks third in top
Netherlands 16 Caribbean 2 concern votes but sixth overall. Thus, while it may appear
Japan 15 Ecuador 2 at first glance that innovation culture is the second most
Australia 13 Kenya 2 common top concern among R&D managers, deeper
analysis reveals a more complex picture. Gaining top
Singapore 13 Saudi Arabia 2
management support for new innovations and identifying
Brazil 12 Thailand 2
disruptive technologies both factor quite high on the list
Mexico 11 Egypt 1 of top concerns but received fewer overall votes and so
Belgium 10 Georgia 1 appear in the analysis as less significant than they might
Spain 9 Greece 1 actually be.
Ireland 8 Luxembourg 1 Given observed trends and concerns in recent research
Malaysia 8 Norway 1 around big data, hyperconnectivity, artificial intelligence,
Israel 7 Portugal 1 cybersecurity, the Internet of Things (IoT), and related
technology issues, a new category was added to this list
South Korea 7 Romania 1
in this year’s survey—updating IT infrastructure and data
Sweden 7 South Africa 1
security measures. Interestingly, this item attracted very
Taiwan 7 Turkey 1 little attention from R&D leaders, ranking third from the
Argentina 5 United Arab Emirates 1 bottom on the list of major concerns. It may be that R&D
Hungary 5 Venezuela 1 leaders feel these updates are outside their domain of work.
New Zealand 5 To provide deeper insight into this aspect of our analysis,
N = 95 we segmented the data on top concerns by industry

2018 R&D Trends Forecast January—February 2018 j 31


concerns are not necessarily the
same as the concerns identified in
the overall sample.

Innovation Tactics
In addition to the analysis of R&D
leaders’ expectations for R&D invest-
ments, this year’s survey introduced
several new questions devised to
tease out the tactics these
companies use to innovate, as the
choice of tactics can offer insight
about how and where organizations
see themselves growing. To establish
context for these tactics, we first
asked about two key factors, one
internal and one external. First, we
asked about expected R&D budgets
over the next five years; a large
majority of respondents (88 percent)
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FIGURE 9. Respondents’ top concerns


reported expecting stable or increas-
ing investment levels (Table 10).
(Table 9). This analysis lines up well with the overall We then asked about the technologies respondents believe
analysis, exposing the lack of support for the factors that will impact their organizations the most in three years.
received the most overall votes but fewer “top concern” Unsurprisingly, the big buzzword technologies like artificial
votes. Balancing short- and long-term R&D goals, the top intelligence, machine learning, Internet of Things (IoT),
factor in the overall analysis, received many votes across and digital collaboration topped the list (Figure 10).
every segment, as did gaining senior management support These responses indicate a general level of optimism
for tech-based innovation and integrating technology about likely growth in R&D, as well as expectations that
planning and business strategy. But building and maintain- digital technologies will increasingly be incorporated into
ing an innovation culture received no votes in any industry new products, services, and processes—both factors likely
except industrial equipment and chemicals. Attracting, to influence the tactics organizations use to foster innov-
developing, and retaining talent received votes only in ation. We asked respondents to indicate, from a list, what
food/beverage organizations and chemical companies. By tactics they plan on using over the next three years. These
weeding out the other votes and focusing on the top responses suggest that R&D organizations will engage in a
concerns, this segmentation view highlights the primary range of tactics, from more traditional in-house develop-
concerns of R&D managers across industries. Those leading ment programs and personnel expansion to various kinds

TABLE 9. R&D managers’ top concerns, by industry


Consumer Food/ Government/ Industrial
Construction Products Beverage Nonprofit Equipment Chemicals All
Balancing short-/long-term objectives 17% 14% 11% 33% 30% 27% 23%
Building/maintaining innovation culture — — — — 10% 18% 9%
Integrating tech planning and biz strategy 33% — 11% — 10% 14% 12%
Attracting, developing, retaining talent — — 11% — — 9% 5%
Gaining mgmt support for tech innovation 17% 14% 44% 33% 30% 5% 19%
Identifying disruptive tech 17% 29% 22% — 20% 5% 14%
Improving efficiency — 14% — — — — 2%
Managing innovation globally 17% 14% — — — 5% 5%
Measuring R&D performance — 14% — — — 5% 4%
Complying with regulatory changes — — — — — 5% 2%
Developing leadership — — — 33% — — 2%
Updating IT infrastructure and security — — — — — — 0%
Improving knowledge management — — — — — 9% 4%
Improving sustainability — — — — — — 0%

32 j Research-Technology Management 2018 R&D Trends Forecast


TABLE 10. R&D spending expectations for next five years of partnerships and collaborations (Figure 11); other kinds
What is your outlook for your organization’s of tactics, such as insourcing technology or outsourcing
R&D spending over the next 5 years? % of Respondents R&D, will remain less common. It is important to note that,
Significant increase in spending 18% without historical data on this set of questions, it is difficult
Slight increase in spending 42% to gauge what is normal behavior and what is exceptional.
Stable spending 28% We will need additional years of data to gauge how
Slight decrease in spending 8% organizations actually respond.
Significant decrease in spending 4%
Conclusion
Overall, R&D managers appear optimistic about R&D
investment growth going into 2018, as they have for the
past three years. Year-over-year
data across almost every spending
category suggest generally positive
trends. New business projects
remain a key driver of investment,
as they have been in the past; this
year’s data reveal a strong rebound
in sentiment around this category.
Sentiment around collaboration
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activities is similarly positive, with


optimism strengthening notably
this year for every category, as are
hiring expectations for both estab-
lished R&D professionals and new
graduates. Global investment
patterns appear to be stable, with
the total number of laboratories
outside the United States holding
steady.
Much of the data gathered about
technology points to trends that are
already widely visible, including the
rise of big data analytics, virtual
FIGURE 10. Most important technologies in the next three years analysis and simulation tools,
artificial intelligence, and the Inter-
net of Things, among others. With-
out historical data on the actions
organizations take to innovate, it is
difficult at this point to say how
these emerging technology trends
are shaping innovation tactics, but
it seems likely that rapidly emerging
new technologies will lead many
organizations to look for partners
to fill in knowledge and personnel
gaps. This would help explain the
surge in interest around industry
and university collaborations. Sim-
ultaneously, companies may be
increasing in-house hiring and staff
development not only to fill the
holes left by departing senior staff
but also to acquire knowledge and
competency needed to navigate
these new trends. More data over
FIGURE 11. Top innovation tactics for the next three years time will help fill in this picture.

2018 R&D Trends Forecast January—February 2018 j 33


In general, this year’s data indicate rising optimism innovate based on emerging technologies and attitudes
about R&D spending, collaboration, job creation, industry towards collaboration, but we currently lack the data to
expansion, and an adoption of new emerging technologies support such a claim. Only time will tell.
even as it suggests that a traditional view of R&D as a Special thanks to Greg Holden, Business Writer and Social
largely in-house endeavor continues to hold sway. It may Media Manager at IRI, for distributing the surveys, collecting
be that we are witnessing a change in how companies responses and analyzing the data, and writing this report.
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