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Ecology
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REVIEW
Alternative stable states occur when perturbations
of sufficient magnitude and direction push ecosys-
tems from one basin of attraction to another (12).
Trophic Downgrading of Planet Earth Tipping points (also known as thresholds or break-
points), around which abrupt changes in ecosystem
James A. Estes,1* John Terborgh,2 Justin S. Brashares,3 Mary E. Power,4 Joel Berger,5 structure and function (a.k.a. phase shifts) occur,
William J. Bond,6 Stephen R. Carpenter,7 Timothy E. Essington,8 Robert D. Holt,9 often characterize transitions between alternative
Jeremy B. C. Jackson,10 Robert J. Marquis,11 Lauri Oksanen,12 Tarja Oksanen,13 stable states. Ecosystem phase shifts can also dis-
Robert T. Paine,14 Ellen K. Pikitch,15 William J. Ripple,16 Stuart A. Sandin,10 Marten Scheffer,17 play hysteresis, a phenomenon in which the loca-
Thomas W. Schoener,18 Jonathan B. Shurin,19 Anthony R. E. Sinclair,20 Michael E. Soulé,21 tions of tipping points between states differ with
Risto Virtanen,22 David A. Wardle23 the directionality of change (13). A third key con-
cept, connectivity, holds that ecosystems are built
Until recently, large apex consumers were ubiquitous across the globe and had been for millions of years. around interaction webs within which every spe-
The loss of these animals may be humankind’s most pervasive influence on nature. Although such cies potentially can influence many other species.
losses are widely viewed as an ethical and aesthetic problem, recent research reveals extensive cascading Such interactions, which include both biological
effects of their disappearance in marine, terrestrial, and freshwater ecosystems worldwide. This processes (e.g., predation, competition, and mutu-
empirical work supports long-standing theory about the role of top-down forcing in ecosystems but also alism) and physicochemical processes (e.g., the
highlights the unanticipated impacts of trophic cascades on processes as diverse as the dynamics of nourishing or limiting influences of water, temper-
Catch-effort
40
mm yr-1
indirect effects of losing these apex consumers.
Herbivory and wildfire. Wildfires burn up to
500 million ha of the global landscape annually, 20
5
consuming an estimated 8700 Tg of dry plant
biomass, releasing roughly 4000 Tg of carbon to
the atmosphere, and costing billions of dollars in 0 0
fire suppression and property loss (28). The fre-
quency and extent of wildfire have been largely
attributed to a warming and drying climate and Sea otters -
fuel accumulation from protective wildland man- -
Present
Absent
agement practices. However, the global distribution
and biomass of vegetation are poorly predicted
by temperature and rainfall (29), and recent +
% Diet
B
40 F
(Syncerus caffer). Reductions of these large herbi- 40
vores caused an increase in plant biomass, which M F
fueled wildfires during the dry season. Rinder- 20
20
pest was eliminated from East Africa in the 1960s I F M
through an extensive vaccination and control pro- 0 0
gram. Because of this, wildebeest and buffalo
populations had recovered to what was thought Fig. 3. Trophic cascade from sea otters to sea urchins to kelp (center) has myriad effects on other species
to be historically high levels by the early 1980s. and ecological processes. The increase in kelp enhances the abundance of kelp forest fish (A) (70).
The resulting increase in herbivory drove these Enhanced kelp production increases the amount of particulate organic carbon in coastal ocean waters,
systems from shrublands to grasslands, thus de- thus increasing the growth rate of filter-feeding mussels (B) (71). The presence or absence of sea otters
creasing the fuel loads and reducing the frequen- influences the diet of other consumers in the coastal ecosystems (C and D). In systems with abundant sea
cy and intensity of wildfires (30) (Fig. 4). Other otters, Glaucous winged-gulls (Larus glaucescens) consume mostly fish (F), whereas in systems lacking
examples of the interplay between megafauna sea otters, gulls consume mostly macroinvertebrates (I) (C) (72). When sea otters were abundant in the
and wildfire are the increase in fire frequency after Aleutian archipelago, bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) fed on fish (F), mammals (M), and birds (B)
the late Pleistocene/early Holocene decline of in roughly equal amounts. The loss of sea otters from this system led to a stronger reliance by the eagles
megaherbivores in Australia (31) and the north- on seabirds (D) (73). Blue bars from system with sea otters; brown bars from system without sea otters.
eastern United States (32).
Disease. The apparent rise of infectious dis- aquatic systems. The establishment of no-take ma- soils, and water—are understudied and largely
eases across much of the globe is commonly rine reserves in the Channel Islands of southern unappreciated. Even so, important connections
attributed to climate change, eutrophication, and California led to increases in the size and abun- between these entities have become apparent in
habitat deterioration. Although these factors are dance of spiny lobsters (Panulirus interruptus) and the few instances where people have looked.
undoubtedly important, links also exist between declines in population densities of sea urchins, The atmosphere. Linkages between apex con-
disease and predation (33). For example, the re- which are preyed on by the lobsters. The reduced sumers and the atmosphere are known or suspected
duction of lions and leopards from parts of sub- urchin densities thwarted the spread of disease in freshwater, marine, and terrestrial ecosystems.
Saharan Africa has led to population outbreaks among individual sea urchins, which led to a low- Trophic cascades associated with the presence or
and changes in behavior of olive baboons (Papio ered frequency of epidemics of sea urchin wasting absence of apex predatory fishes in lakes can af-
anubis). The baboons, in turn, have been drawn disease within the reserves (35) (Fig. 4). In fresh- fect phytoplankton density, in turn affecting the
into increasing contact with people because of their water systems, the localized rise and fall of human rate of primary production, the uptake rate of CO2,
attraction to crops and other human food resources. malaria is associated with the impacts of predatory and the direction of carbon flux between lakes
The increased baboon densities and their expanded fishes on planktivores, which are in turn important and the atmosphere. Where apex predatory fishes
interface with human populations have led to high- consumers of mosquito larvae (36). are present in sufficient numbers, they reduce the
er rates of intestinal parasites in baboons and the Physical and chemical influences. The influ- abundance of smaller planktivorous minnows,
humans who live in close proximity to them (17). ences of industrialization and agriculture on thus releasing zooplankton from limitation by
A similar result, involving different species and Earth’s physical environments and geochemical planktivores and increasing consumption rates
processes, occurred in India, where the decline of processes are widely known. However, the con- of phytoplankton by zooplankton (Fig. 1B). This
vultures also led to increased health risks from tributing effects of changes in the distribution and trophic cascade causes lakes to switch from net
rabies and anthrax (34). Further examples of the abundance of apex consumers to the physical and sinks for atmospheric CO2 when predatory fishes
interplay between predation and disease exist for chemical nature of our biosphere—the atmosphere, are absent to net sources of atmospheric CO2 when
% Burned
60
-
Present
Absent
soils through trampling, compaction, and the re- Fire 40
turn of dung and urine. The collective influence of - 20
these processes is often an effect on species com- + 0
position of the vegetation and altered successional
pathways (42, 43). Predators of these herbivores 45
% Epidemics
and the trophic cascades they set in motion reverse - 30
these belowground effects (44). For example, the
Disease -
reintroduction of wolves to Yellowstone National 15
2
-100
∆PCO
(Fig. 4) (47) have reduced soil fertility and plant Atmosphere -
nutrition on high-latitude islands by disrupting sea- -200
% Soil P
through a variety of mechanisms. For example, Soil - 0.1
the collapse of large demersal fish led to a 20% +
reduction in silica supply to pelagic diatoms in 0
the Baltic Sea (48). In rivers, mass spawning by
15
salmon suspends sediments, thus increasing down-
stream sediment transport (49) (Fig. 4). This flush- 10
Water -
g • m-3
ing of stream bed sediments by the spawning fish
5
and the increased circulation of fresh water through +
the gravel interstices of the stream bed have pos- 0
itive feedbacks on salmon populations by in-
1000
creasing oxygen for incubating eggs and fry
Density