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Abstract— Zambia’s national power grid is facing a annually [5]. However, the current installed capacity of solar
constraint in meeting the present and expected future PV is just 0.06MW, and is mainly installed for off-grid rural
demand. Solar photovoltaic (PV) power is a promising electrification by the Rural Electrification Authority. Zambia
option for large-scale renewable energy integration in plans to install 600MW solar PV. Construction of a 200 MW
Zambia as there is abundant insolation, averaging plant was commenced in May, 2016 [6].
5.5kWh/m2/day. However, large-scale integration of solar
The key concerns of large scale solar PV integration include
will increase the variability and uncertainty in the power
balancing the net load, system inertia, frequency and voltage
supply, which can result in blackouts. This research
ride-through capabilities [7]. Consequently, the capability of a
investigates the maximum PV capacity that can be
specific power system to integrate solar PV depends on the
integrated into the existing Zambia grid while considering
flexibility of its generation and the extent of demand side
the ramp rate constraints of the existing generators. An
response [8]. Accordingly, blackouts can be common in an
optimal power flow using MATPOWER version 5.1 was
event of drastic drop or rise in the solar PV output. This means
performed using a transmission system model of the grid.
that grid stability is compromised due to the risk of severe grid
The simulation used actual hourly load, generation and
over- or under-frequency [9] if conventional generation is
solar irradiance for a period of 1632 hours.
unable to decrease or increase its power output quickly.
Keywords - Solar-energy; grid-integration; grid-stability;
Active power control methods for renewable power plants
energy-storage; ramp-rate; Zambia.
(RPP) include maximum power limitations, operating range
I. INTRODUCTION limitation, delta control and ramp rate limitation as highlighted
in the grid code for RPP in South Africa [10]. Ramp rate
The Zambian economy has been rising at an average rate of
limitation is an effective way of minimizing sudden changes in
5% per annum with a 3% increase in electricity demand over
the output from RPPs by limitation of their power gradient
10-year period [1]. It is estimated that the demand outstrips the
through a set point [11]. Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority
supply by approximately 560MW, which has resulted in load
(PREPA) requires a 10% limit of rated power per minute by
shedding for long periods, between six to ten hours per day [2].
wind and PV generation similar to the Germany transmission
The deficit was caused by low rainfall and massive spillage of
system operators [12]. Other operators such as EirGrid
19.98 billion m3 over 87 days in 2011. The country has been
(Republic of Ireland) limits positive ramps up to
forced to import power of about 350MW and emergency rental
power of 148MW at premium costs [3]. A growing population 30MW/minute, HECO (Hawaiian) limits its ramps at ± 2 MW
and expanding economy is expected to increase household per minute during all times (except for 00:00-04:00 a.m. and
demand by 7.9% per annum and industrial and agricultural 16:00-20:00 p.m.) when ramps are limited to +1MW and -1MW
demand by 4.7% per annum [4]. per minute respectively for wind projects less than 50MW.
Nearly 92% of Zambia’s generation mix is supplied by Comparison of ramp rates for large and small PV systems
hydropower, with the balance primarily result thermal was done in [13] in which it was discovered that the power
generation [1]. As the present energy shortage shows, Zambia output from both changes much faster than the maximum
must diversify its generation sources. Zambia has immense PREPA permitted rate.
solar photovoltaic (PV) potential with an average insolation of This paper investigates the maximum solar PV capacity that
5.5kWh/m2/day and approximately 3000 sunshine hours can be integrated into the Zambian national grid. A quasi-
steady-state analysis is performed considering hourly intervals irradiance; it is assumed the panels are operating under
over a 68-day period to determine at what PV penetration level Standard Test Conditions (STC).
the ramp rates of the existing generations become a limiting
Hourly irradiance data was obtained from the metrological
factor for stable integration. The analysis is specific to Zambia
center at the University of Zambia [14]. The irradiance was
and is based on real-world data. The focus is on exploring the
converted to power output based on the capacity of the PV
upper limit of PV integration and not the economic impact,
power plant considered. The performance of the solar PV
although this analysis is also provided.
power plant was similar for the different PV levels as it was
This paper is arranged as follows. In Section II, an assumed that effects of panel shading, etc. was the same for all
overview of the Zambia power systems is provided. Section III PV capacities. Fig. 1. shows the mean daily solar PV output
describes the Optimal Power Flow Algorithm. The results are profile expressed as a percentage of the installed PV capacity,
discussed in Section IV and the conclusions are given in Section as well as output corresponding to the day with the maximum
V. and minimum energy production. Note that it is possible for a
PV array to exceed rated power production if exposed to
II. ZAMBIA POWER SYSTEM
irradiance exceeding that of STC (1000 W/m2).
Zambia’s generation resource mix primarily consists of
hydro power (91.5%) The other sources are diesel (3%),
thermal (0.5%), heavy fuel oil (2%) and biomass (1.7%). In
2014, the total energy generation was 14TWh from a total
installed capacity of 2396MW. The total peak power demand
was estimated at 2437MW for 2010 and projected to be above
2400MW in 2020 [1]. The regional interconnection of the grid
is facilitated by Southern African Power Pool.
The generation voltage is 17.5kV, transmission line
voltages are 330kV, 220kV, 132kV, 88kV and 66kV, and Fig. 1. Mean daily Solar PV output as percentage of installed
distribution line voltages are 33kV and 11kV. The hydro major PV capacity
hydro generators are located in remote locations near the The generation from the solar power plant was modeled as
Zambezi River, Kafue River and Lake Kariba in the Southern point injections primarily in the transmission network (330kV,
Province. The major load consumers are the mines on the Lusaka West Substation), as is typical in power flow analysis,
Copperbelt province in north-central Zambia, and domestic therefore, DC/AC converters are not explicitly modeled.
loads-countrywide accounting for 85% of the total demand.
The high-voltage transmission system has a total length of C. OPF mathematical derivation for model
approximately 4785 km.
The Matlab Interior Point Solver (MIPS) included in
I. POWER SYSTEM MODEL AND OPTIMAL POWER FLOW MATPOWER version 5.1 uses primal-dual interior point
(OPF) method and solves the problem of the form [15]:
A. Grid model min f ( x , u ) (1)
x
The simulation in this paper is based on actual hourly data g ( x, u ) = 0
from the Zambian system over a 68-day period. The Zambian subjected to (2)
grid model consisted of seven voltage levels, 90 buses, 45 h ( x, u ) = 0
transformers and 163 branches. Thermal and voltage limit
constraints were included in the model. Out of 12 hydro power where f is the object function to be minimized, g is the
plants in Zambia, only three stations were explicitly simulated equality constraints given by the power flow equations, h is
because they account for 95% of the total hydro power the inequality constraints that represent the operating limits of
installed capacity. The generation from the other hydro power the system, x is a vector of dependent (state) variables (e.g.
plants was modeled as net power injections at their bus. The slack bus power, load bus voltages, generator reactive power
value of the injection was computed based on the difference output, and transmission line ratings), u is a vector of
between the load at the bus and the flow of power into and out independent (control) variables (e.g. generator voltages,
of the bus. The total diesel power plant capacity is 80MW and generator real power outputs except the slack bus, transformer
is primarily used to provide peak and emergency power to the settings and shunt VAR compensation).
mines in the event of grid failure.
For a stable power system, the supply is equal to the load
B. Solar Model demand and losses:
The location of the hypothetical solar power plant modeled Pg = Pd + Pl (3)
was near Lusaka, Zambia ( 15 ° S and 28° W). Factors such as
angle of tilt of the panel, ground reflectance and clearness where Pg is the total power generated, Pd is the total system
index were all accounted for and aside from the varying demand and Pl are the total system losses. The total power
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2017 IEEE PES-IAS PowerAfrica
generated is the sum of the power produced by all the Table 1. Generator cost functions
generators in the system: Power Plant Cost Coefficients
Pg = Ph + Pt + P PV + P im (4) α ($/W2) β ($/W) γ ($)
where Ph , Pt , PPV and Pim are the total power from the
hydro, thermal and PV plants, respectively, and Pim is the Kariba 0.00288 5.6 5400
imported power. The hydropower can be further expanded as: North Bank
where Pt 1 and Pt 0 is the power output at time t1 and t 0 In an event when there is sudden rise in the solar output, to
respectively. The limitation on Pt 1 are maintain the balance between supply and demand, the hydro
generators output will suddenly drop (ramp down). This will
P min ≤ Pt 1 ≤ Pmax (7) be common during sunrise and when the cloud suddenly clears
after a complete cloud cover. In an event when the solar output
P max ≤ Pinstalled (8)
suddenly drops during sunset, around 17:00hrs, and following
where Pinstalled is the installed capacity of the plant. the Zambian load profile where the load suddenly rises, the
output in the hydro generators will be made to rise (ramp up).
The reactive power changes were constrained by the The impacts will differ with the level of solar power
generators reactive power limits penetration.
Q min ≤ Q ≤ Q max (9)
II. RESULTS AND ANALYSIS
The generator costs for the hydro generators were modeled Hourly simulations were conducted from 18th February to 26th
based on provided data and are provided in Table 1. April. The load for each hour was set equal to the actual
measured load. The PV output was based on measured hourly
irradiance values [14].
A. Load Profile Analysis
The average energy demand per day was 25.8GWh with
maximum value of 30.2GWh and minimum value of
19.4GWh. The total energy demand for the entire period of 68
days was 1755GWh with an average load factor of 0.64. The
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