EMO Hurricane Season Briefing 2018

Presented by Michelle Pitcher, BWS:

1. BWS oversight & coordination
2. Tropical Cyclone Development & Characteristics
3. New from NHC for 2018
4. Tropical Cyclones and Bermuda
5. BWS Role and Liaisons
Presented by James Dodgson, BWS:
1. Review of 2017 Hurricane Season
2. 2018 Hurricane Season forecast update & why
3. Tropical Cyclone Climatology specific to Bermuda
4. BWS communications
 Weather Service Coordination
Bermuda Government

National Disaster
Bermuda Airport Authority Coordinator & Emergencies
Skyport Measures Organization

CI2 Aviation Bermuda Ltd.

Tropical Updates, Watches, and Warnings
Public & Marine Forecasts
Aviation Forecasts
Watches & Warnings
NOTAMs & Flight Plans
Aviation Watches & Warnings Yacht Charts & Briefings

www.weather.bm/aviation www.weather.bm
Climatology TV Channels
Radio & Newspaper
 Tropical Cyclone Formation Basins

Source http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/tropics/tc_basins.htm

These are between 5-15 degrees latitude north & south from the equator and
tend to be easterly as the hurricanes develop and grow.
 Tropical Cyclone Formation

• Warm sea surface temperature (at least 26C/80F)

• Moist & Unstable atmosphere
• Pre-existing Disturbance
• e.g. Tropical Wave, old cold front, upper troposphere
trough
• Low wind shear environment
 Bermuda-Azores High

Main Development Region (MDR)

The center of high migrates east and west; its position and
strength influencing TC tracks. Generally more westerly in the
first half of the Atlantic Hurricane Season and more easterly in
the second half of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.
 Tropical Cyclone Terminology

• *Tropical Depression - A tropical cyclone in which the maximum

sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33
knots or less.

• *Tropical Storm - A tropical cyclone in which the maximum

sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average)
ranges from 34 to 63 knots.

• Hurricane - A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained

surface wind (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 64 knots or higher.

• Major Hurricane - A hurricane that is classified as

Category 3 or higher, 96 knots and higher

*Also includes Sub-Tropical Storms

Tropical Wave in the Easterlies
 Hurricane Development
This feedback mechanism continues as long as the
favorable conditions for hurricane growth continue to exist.
 Major Hurricane Nicole

SUOM 1 NPP VIRS Day Night Band 13 Oct 2016 06:15Z

 Hurricane Winds
• Hurricane winds are
typically the strongest
on the right side of the
Strongest winds
storm. Weaker on the right side
• The forward motion of winds of the storm.
the storm is added to
the wind speeds on
the right side of the
storm to enhance the
surface winds.
 Storm Surge
• Storm Surge is a dome of water driven by
the persistent strong winds in a tropical
system

Water levels also affected by High/Low Tide

NHC Responsible for Entire Basin

BWS, in conjunction
with the NHC, is
responsible for:

- Local Forecasts
- Local Watches
& Warnings
 Some of the Updates on NHC Products &
Services for the 2018 Season
• The NHC Public Advisory will now include forecast information
beyond 48 hours; now 72 hours and up to 5 days

• Wind radii forecasts increased: 72 hours for TS Force and 48

hours for HURCN Force

• NHC arrival time of TS Force Winds graphics operational

• Reminder from last year: Potential Tropical Cyclone – issued

when a tropical disturbance has not yet developed into a
cyclone, but will likely rapidly develop near shore, bringing
tropical cyclone conditions within 48 hours
 Some of the Updates on NHC Products &
Services for the 2018 Season

• BWS products have always

stated the “Most Likely”
arrival times
• Any uncertainties in these
times are conveyed in the
forecast as well as the
forecast discussion
• Specific wind timings, when
possible and as available, are
disseminated to the
appropriate agencies

Earliest Reasonable Most Likely

Arrival Time of Arrival Time of
Specified Winds Specified Winds
 Threats, Watches, and Warnings
Distance of Centre
• Potential Threat: The centre of a tropical cyclone is forecast to
come within 400 nautical miles of Bermuda within 72 hours.
• Threat: The centre of a tropical cyclone forecast to come
within 100 nautical miles of Bermuda OR the effects of the
tropical cyclone are possible in 72 hours.

Wind Speeds
• (*TS) Hurricane Watch: Possible onset of (TS 34-63 knots)
Hurricane force (64+ knots) winds within 48 hours or less.
• (*TS) Hurricane Warning: Possible onset of (TS 34-63 knots)
Hurricane force (64+ knots) winds within 36 hours.

* Also includes: Sub-Tropical Storms

 Implementation
T + 72 hours BWS monitoring NHC & other agencies for information
Liaison with NDC, BAA, Skyport on tropical cyclones moving
towards BDA as necessary

T = 72 hours Cyclone deemed (Pot.)Threat, Email to EMO Exec./NDC,

BAA, Skyport, MAROPS, in person and video briefings begin

T = 48 hours TS/HURCN Watch issued, email updates and briefings

continue

T = 36 hours TS/HURCN Warning issued, email updates and briefings

continue

T - 36  0 hours Continued updates, forecast wind onset and cessation

time tables created exclusively for the marine area, the
Island, and the Airport
 Implementation

CPA Potential for the strongest winds, highest swells/surge,

passage of the eye

Winds < 64 knots HURCN Warning downgraded to TS

Winds < 34 knots TS Warning downgraded to Small Craft Warning

All Clear Final communications to EMO, BAA, Skyport, & MAROPS

NB: BWS staff stay at the office for the duration of the
event; maintaining continuity of our 24 hour operations
 2018 Hurricane Season briefing update
1. Review of 2017 hurricane season
2. 2018 hurricane season
• Predictions & climatology
• Review of BWS operations
• BWS communications

James Dodgson jdodgson@ci2.com

Director, Bermuda Weather Service (BWS), a dept.
of CI² Aviation Bermuda Ltd.
Review of 2017 Hurricane Season

Very active in parts of the

Caribbean and along parts of
the US Gulf coast (e.g. Major
BDA
Hurricanes Harvey, Irma & Maria)
In fact there were no fewer than
17 named storms, compared to
an average of 12
However, for Bermuda, it was a
very quiet season, with NO tropical
watches/warnings issued for the
first time in TEN YEARS!
Image courtesy of NOAA/NHC
 Review of 2017 Hurricane Season
Katia Cat 1
Irma Cat 5
Jose Cat 3
 2017 Official NOAA Seasonal Forecast
• Forecasters predict a 45 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 35 percent
chance of a near-normal season, and only a 20 percent chance of a below-normal
season.
• Forecasters predict a 70 percent likelihood of 14* named storms (winds of 34 knots
or higher), of which 7* could become hurricanes (winds of 64 knots or higher),
including 3* major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 96 knots or higher). An
average season produces 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes,
including three major hurricanes.
• The outlook reflects our expectation of a weak or non-existent El Nino, near- or
above-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and
Caribbean Sea, and average or weaker-than-average vertical wind shear in that
same region
*average of a range
 Atlantic Hurricane Season Summary 2017 (& 2016)
ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2015

Forecast Climatology Last year’s tally, Previous year, 2016

Parameter (average 1981- 2017
2010)

Named Storms 12 17 15

Hurricanes 6 10 7

Major Hurricanes 3 6 4

WHY? Last year was more active than average, in large due to a weakening to
non-existent El Nino, which impedes tropical cyclone development due to
increased wind shear in the main development region. SSTs also tended to be
warmer than average, adding extra fuel for tropical cyclone development. The
year before was more active than average due to similar reasons.
 Tropical Activity in Recent Years

Hurricane Igor

Hurricanes Fay & Gonzalo

Hurricane Joaquin

Hurricane Nicole

Main table courtesy of the UK Met Office Notable recent Bermuda hurricanes
 2018 Hurricane Season
1. 2018 Seasonal Forecast & Why?
2. Climatology for Bermuda
3. Review of BWS operations
4. How BWS communicates with EMO before, during and after a
tropical cyclone affects Bermuda
 Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast 2018
ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2015
Forecast Climatology Tropical Colorado NOAA CPC UK Met Office
Parameter (average Storm Risk State issued 5 issued 24 May issued 25
1981-2010) issued 5 April April May

Named 12 12 14 13 11
Storms
Hurricanes 6 6 7 7 6
Major 3 2 3 3 -
Hurricanes
 Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast 2018
ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2015
Forecast Climatology Tropical Colorado NOAA CPC UK Met Office
Parameter (average Storm Risk State issued 5 issued 24 May issued 25
1981-2010) issued 5 April April/2 Aug /9 Aug May
/6 Aug
Named 12 12/11 14/12 13/11 11
Storms
Hurricanes 6 6/5 7/5 7/6 6
Major 3 2/1 3/1 3/1 -
Hurricanes

Why are forecast numbers now just below average for this season?
Continued signal of El-Nino developing later in the summer (and cooler SSTs).
El Nino tends to impede tropical cyclone development, due to increased wind
shear and more atmospheric stability in the main development region (MDR).
The shear essentially rips apart the developing tropical disturbance.
REMEMBER, what ever numbers are forecast ahead of each season, it
only takes one storm to make it an active season for us! E.g. Fay,
Gonzalo, Nicole
The very fact that NO tropical watches/warnings were issued by BWS
last season means it is quite likely BWS will issue some this season!
 El Nino Forecast for 2018

El Nino phase

La Nina phase
Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs)

in the main development
region (MDR) of the tropical Atlantic
have continued to be below average
(blue) over the past month.

These cooler than average SSTs

Cooler than average in concert with a developing El
SSTs in MDR Nino are two of the main contributing
factors to what is now expected
to be a below average season.
El Nino & La Nina – impact on Tropical
Cyclone formation
El Nino suppresses
hurricane development
Now looking increasingly
Likely later this season

La Nina enhances
hurricane development
This was the case during
the active 2017 season

Images courtesy of NOAA

Review of the 2018 season so far…

Beryl great example of developing,

then dissipating in shear area…
Reduced …then redeveloping again near
windshear Bermuda in a low shear
environment; Hurricane Fay was
BDA also a similar example in 2014.
Enhanced
windshear

Beryl

Image courtesy of NOAA/NHC

Example – Track guidance ‘spaghetti’ plot
Lots of different computer
model information available
on the internet including
tropical weather apps
Data can be hard for the
layman to interpret, with
many ‘unofficial’ opinions
in the public domain

Best to ONLY follow the official

guidance from NHC/BWS
Historical Record For Atlantic Basin

12-13 October 2016

Major Hurricane
Nicole

4-5 October 2015

Hurricane Joaquin

17 October 2014
Major Hurricane
Gonzalo
Historical Record For Bermuda (Hurricanes)
Historical Record For Bermuda (Tropical Storms & Hurricanes)

44

34
August Track Climatology
September Track Climatology
October Track Climatology
November Track Climatology
 Reminder of new BWS/NHC Policies…
• BWS in collaboration with NHC, will be able to issue watches &
warnings on tropical disturbances that are not yet a tropical
cyclone, but which pose the threat of bringing TS or Hurricane
conditions to the Island within 48hrs
• These will be labelled ‘Potential Tropical Cyclones’
• An example of when this might have been useful was Hurricane
Karen in 2001 which formed on Bermuda’s doorstep – BWS was
able to issue gale and storm warnings but not ‘more impactful’
tropical warnings
• Routine emails on active tropical systems – only one email will
be sent if system is not deemed a threat to Bermuda throughout
its lifetime
 BWS Operations
• www.weather.bm
• Automated BTC telephone recordings
977, 9771, 9772, 9773
• Radio interviews (including 100.1FM)
• Marine VHF Channel 2 (Bermuda
Radio)
• CV Channel 4 & WOW Channel 100
BWS Weather Channels
• Social Media – BWS Facebook page:
www.facebook.com/BermudaWeather
Service
• News media announcements
• Communications with EMO, Aviation & Marine operations via email,
fax, phone, satellite phone BWS # +881 631 452 873
• Full redundancy for BWS equipment, electricity & comms
The Tropical Update Bulletin (TUB)

• Details on track & intensity

• Details on timing
• Details on closest point of
approach (CPA) within next
72 hrs (3 days) – system may
move closer beyond this
period
• Specific data on tropical
cyclone
• Highlighting of watches/
warnings in place
 Additional information provided to EMO
• BWS director will email the EMO executive email group when a system is expected to
affect BDA in any way – Regiment contacts are also included.
• Weather briefings provided to the EMO as needed in advance of a warning issuance.
• Before, during and after the event, information will be conveyed via email to the EMO
executive email group (NDC then re-distributes the information to the wider
membership, as he sees fit).
– Onset/cessation and directions of winds reaching the following thresholds:
• 34 knots (Tropical Storm force)
• 50 knots (potential Causeway &/or Airport closure, depends on wind direction)
• 64 knots (Hurricane)
– Maximum wave heights expected & the effects due to storm surge/tidal levels
– Time and distance of the closest point of approach of the centre of the storm
• Online Video briefings - produced by BWS when the EMO cannot convene, e.g. during the
event or maybe on weekends/short notice events or during preparation.
How can we improve for 2018 Season?
• United front of Information- EMO, DC & BWS
• Communication
– BWS – Impact based & colour coded for government
department planning. Did this help last few years? Should we
continue? – NHC & WMO pushing impact based forecasting in future –
e.g. high rainfall versus flood/surge warning

BLUE – Sea state event: Parks (Lifeguards)

YELLOW – 50 kt threshold: Parks, Education, Transport, Causeway, etc

RED – Damages possible – All departments