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Momentum and trend following trading strategies for currencies and bitcoin
Abstract
Momentum trading strategies are thoroughly described in the academic literature and used in many trading strategies by
hedge funds, asset managers, and proprietary traders. Baz et al. (2015) describe a momentum strategy for different asset
classes in great detail from a practitioner’s point of view. Using a geometric Brownian Motion for the dynamics of the
returns of financial instruments, we extensively explain the motivation and background behind each step of a momentum
trading strategy. Constants and parameters that are used for the practical implementation are derived in a theoretical
setting and deviations from those used in Baz et al. (2015) are shown. The trading signal is computed as a mixture of
exponential moving averages with different time horizons. We give a statistical justification for the optimal selection of
time horizons. Furthermore, we test our approach on global currency markets, including G10 currencies, emerging market
currencies, and cryptocurrencies. Both a time series portfolio and a cross-sectional portfolio are considered. We find that
the strategy works best for traditional fiat currencies when considering a time series based momentum strategy. For
cryptocurrencies, a cross-sectional approach is more suitable. The momentum strategy exhibits higher Sharpe ratios for
more volatile currencies. Thus, emerging market currencies and cryptocurrencies have better performances than the G10
currencies. This is the first comprehensive study showing both the underlying statistical reasons of how such trading
strategies are constructed in the industry as well as empirical results using a large universe of currencies, including
cryptocurrencies.
Keywords: Momentum, Currency Markets, G10, Emerging Markets, Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, Moving Average
Crossover, Cross-Sectional Momentum, Time Series Momentum, Trend-Following
JEL: C40, C50, G00, G10, G15, G17, F17, F30, F31, F32
1. Introduction this approach works well for various asset classes. We set
the focus on foreign exchange markets and detail how the
Momentum is a traditional strategy for currency trading. algorithm works by applying it to normally distributed
Past winners are likely to continue to perform well, and past returns. The algorithm is then used to conduct a backtest
losers are likely to continue to do badly. To execute this on real data, divided into three different currency categories.
strategy, one buys currencies that performed well and sells The investigated currency categories are the G10 currencies,
currencies that performed badly in the past. Momentum the emerging market currencies, and the cryptocurrencies.
returns contradict the efficient market hypothesis. There For each category, we show in which periods the strategy
exist various theories that try to explain the existence of worked and in which periods it did not.
these returns (Asness et al., 2013). This paper examines a strategy that is used in practice.
We use an algorithm presented by Baz et al. (2015) to In contrast to other papers about momentum strategies,
generate the momentum signal, based on three crossovers daily data is used instead of monthly data. The strategy
of exponential moving averages with different time horizons. is an extension of simple traditional strategies that are
The three different crossovers identify short-, intermediate-, usually analyzed in academic papers.
and long-term trends respectively. A signal is generated
for each time horizon. The three signals are then combined
to build the trade signal. Baz et al. (2015) showed that 2. Related literature
2 http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/exchange-rates/data/
1 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/94
database
3 https://www.quandl.com/data/BNC2
3
An annualized volatility of σ = 0.05 was assumed, cor-
150
Fitted normal distribution
responding to the historical annualized volatility of EU-
R/USD.
We simulate 100 years (t = 1, 2, ..., 100) with a step
100
1
size of ∆t = 365.24 . Note that there is no differentiation
Density
between weekdays and weekends. Therefore our simulated
time series has 365.24 data points per year instead of 252.
50
One particular path of the exchange rate can be seen in
Figure 1.
0
−0.010 −0.005 0.000 0.005 0.010
Jan 01 Jan 01 Jan 01 Jan 01 Jan 01 Jan 01 Jan 01 4.3. Crossing EMAs for different time-periods
1970 1985 2000 2015 2030 2045 2060
Date Three different time periods were selected, each with an
nk for a short and a long EMA. We adopt nk,s = (8, 16, 32)
Figure 1: Stochastic simulation of an exchange rate using geometric for the short EMAs and nk,l = (24, 48, 96) for the long
Brownian Motion. EMAs from Baz et al. (2015).
Note that nk is not the duration of the filter, and not
Figure 2 shows the daily arithmetic returns calculated the half-life time either. The length of the EMA at time t
Pt −Pt−1
by Pt−1 . is always [0, t]. Equation 4 calculates the half-life.
log(0.5) log(0.5)
HL = = (4)
0.010
nk HL
Jan 01 Jan 01 Jan 01 Jan 01 Jan 01 Jan 01 Jan 01
n1,s = 8 5.2 days
1970 1985 2000 2015 2030 2045 2060 n2,s = 16 10.7 days
Date
n3,s = 32 21.8 days
Figure 2: Daily arithmetic returns of the simulation.
n1,l = 24 16.3 days
n2,l = 48 32.9 days
The daily arithmetic returns are approximately nor- n3,l = 96 66.2 days
mally distributed as shown in Figure 3.
To see where the EMAs are crossing, we zoom into the
4.2. Exponential moving average year 2050 of our simulation. Figure 4 shows the two EMAs
The exponential moving average (EMA) is an infinite for k = 1. That means nk,s = 8 and nk,l = 24. In periods
impulse response filter with exponentially decaying weights. where the short EMA lies above the long EMA, a positive
The following formula shows the recursive calculation. trend exists, whereas in periods where the short EMA
lies below the long EMA the trend is negative. Figure 5
( and Figure 6 show the two EMAs for k = 2 and k = 3
P0 t=0 respectively.
EM At (P, α) = One can see that the EMA-filters are mostly correct.
α · Pt + (1 − α) · EM At−1 (P, α) t > 0
However, there is a delay when the trend changes from
(3)
positive to negative or the other way around. Notice the
4
the exchange rate P and the exponential smoothing ratio
EMA(P|n1,s)
0.62
0.61
1 1
0.60
xk = EM A P, − EM A P, (5)
nk,s nk,l
0.59
EMA(P|n2,l)
0.005 0.010
Simualted exchange rate
0.61
x1
x2
0.60
x3
0.59
xk
0.58
−0.005
0.57
Figure 7: xk
EMA(P|n3,s)
0.62
EMA(P|n3,l)
Simualted exchange rate
the xk . For example, one can choose nk,s = (8, 23, 66)
0.58
2
z3
(Baz et al., 2015)
1
This effect can be seen in Figure 8. It shows the change
from x1 to y1 as an example. There are two peaks with
zk
0
high volatility at the end of May and July. This can be
seen in the upper part of the figure. During these high
−1
volatility phases the x1 is proportionally damped, while
−2
the x1 is proportionally amplified during the low volatility
phases before and after the peaks.
Jan 01 Mar 01 May 01 Jul 01 Sep 01 Nov 01 Dec 31
2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050
standard deviation
Date
0.008
sdmoving(63)(P)
Figure 10: zk
0.003
x1
−0.006 0.004
y1
y3 √
The denominator of 2 · e− /2 was derived as follows.
1
0.5
2
vk (zk ) = zk · e−zk/4 (9)
−1.0
6
√This means √ that 1the vk maps every zk to a value within
1.0
[− 2 · e− /2 , 2 · e− /2 ]. Since we want uk to map every zk
1
to a value
√ within [−1, 1]. This can be achieved by dividing
0.5
vk by 2 · e− /2 which leads to Equation 8.
1
Signal
0.0
every zk to a uk within [−1, 1]. Therefore, the signal always
√ −1 and 1. The
lies between √ function has its global minimum
−0.5
in zk = −√ 2 with uk√(− 2) = −1 and the global maximum
in zk = 2 with uk ( 2) = 1.
−1.0
Figure 12 shows the resulting uk from applying the
response function to zk . Jan 01 Mar 01 May 01 Jul 01 Sep 01 Nov 01 Dec 31
2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050
Date
0.0
uk
Cumulative Return
−1.0 −0.5
−0.1
−0.2
−10 −5 0 5 10
zk
−0.3
Figure 11: Response function. 1971−01−01 1990−01−01 2010−01−01 2030−01−01 2050−01−01 2069−12−31
Date
u1
u2
u3
0.5
Figure 12: uk
300
3
X
Signal = wk · uk (12)
100
k=1
4
AUD/USD
CAD/USD
CHF/USD
EUR/USD
5.2. Cross-sectional portfolio GBP/USD
3
JPY/USD
When using a cross-sectional portfolio, the signals of NOK/USD
NZD/USD
all currencies are compared on every re-balancing date. SEK/USD
2
One goes long the three currencies with the largest signal.
On the other hand, one sells the three currencies with
1
GBP/USD
EUR/USD
NZD/USD
CHF/USD
SEK/USD
JPY/USD
6. Backtest SEK/USD 0.38 0.4 0.39 1 0.77 0.58 0.64 0.64 0.31 0.2
1.0
Cumulative Return
0.8
0.6
Table 3: Summary of the G10 currencies backtest results for a time
0.4
series portfolio (TS) and a cross-sectional portfolio (CS).
0.2
0.0
TS CS
0.02
Daily Return
Annualized Return 2.45% 0.89%
−0.01
Annualized Standard Deviation 0.0458 0.0399
−0.04
Annualized Sharpe Ratio (Rf = 0%) 0.5345 0.2217
Drawdown
−0.02
−0.06
With the time series portfolio, an annualized return 1975−10−14 1980−01−02 1984−01−03 1988−01−04 1992−01−02 1996−01−02 2000−01−03 2004−01−02 2008−01−02 2012−01−03 2016−01−04
Date
of 2.45% and an annualized Sharpe ratio of 0.5345 are
achieved. Figure 18: Backtest for G10 currencies, time series portfolio.
The cross-sectional portfolio achieved an annualized
return of 0.89% and an annualized Sharpe ratio of 0.2217.
The annualized return of the time series portfolio is
nearly three times the annualized return of the cross sec-
0.6
Cumulative Return
tional portfolio. On the other hand, the annualized stan-
0.4
dard deviation of the time series portfolio is only slightly
0.2
higher than the annualized standard deviation of the cross-
0.0
sectional one.
The cumulative returns, daily arithmetic returns, and
Drawdown
−0.05
and 19. In Figure 20 the yearly returns of both portfolios 1975−10−14 1980−01−02 1984−01−03 1988−01−04 1992−01−02 1996−01−02 2000−01−03 2004−01−02 2008−01−02 2012−01−03 2016−01−04
Date
are presented for the period from 1975 to 2017.
The largest drawdown of the time series portfolio with
Figure 19: Backtest for G10 currencies, cross-sectional portfolio.
a magnitude of 7% started in December 2008 and has not
recovered since then. Before 2008 the drawdowns were
quite consistent with magnitudes around 4%. The strategy
0.10
CS
portfolio took another hit and declined ever since. Before
1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015
this huge drawdown, the drawdowns were quite consistent
Years
with magnitudes below 4% before 1990 and maximum
magnitudes of roughly 5.5% between 1990 and 2001.
Figure 20: Yearly returns of the G10 currencies for a time series
Overall we can say that the strategy worked well for the portfolio (TS) and a cross-sectional portfolio (CS).
time series portfolio up to and during the 2008 financial
crisis. In fact, the portfolio shows the highest return in the
year of the crisis. But since then the returns diminished, 8. Emerging market currencies
and the value of the portfolio stagnated. The cross-sectional
portfolio even stagnated as early as 1998 and showed a In this section, a backtest is performed on emerging
strong decline since the financial crisis of 2008. For the G10 market currencies. These currencies are generally slightly
currencies, the time series portfolio worked much better more volatile than the G10 currencies. In this category,
than the cross-sectional portfolio. The risk-adjusted returns the data for the Brazilian Real is only available from 2
were much higher. But at this point, we conclude that January 1995, whereas all other currencies have a longer
momentum returns in the G10 currencies have vanished. history. Taking into account the warm-up period, the
backtest starts on 10 April 1996 for all currencies. Figure 21
shows the exchange rates during the backtesting period.
9
The exchange rates are indexed to visualize the trends Table 4: Summary of the emerging market currencies backtest for a
time series portfolio (TS) and a cross-sectional portfolio (CS).
and volatility better. The impact of the Asian financial
crisis after 1997 and the global financial crisis of 2008 are TS CS
clearly visible. The emerging market currencies devalued Annualized Return 2.48% 1.13%
against the USD during these periods. All currencies of Annualized Standard Deviation 0.0423 0.0445
this category lost value against the USD over the 22 year Annualized Sharpe Ratio (Rf = 0%) 0.5856 0.2533
long period. MXN/USD, ZAR/USD, MXN/USD, and
INR/USD decreased by more than 50%. These currency
pairs also fell during the last five years, while TWD/USD, return of 1.13% and an annualized Sharpe ratio of 0.2533.
THB/USD, and KRW/USD trended sideways during the While the emerging market currencies are marginally
last five years. more volatile, both portfolios have an annualized standard
deviation of equal height compared to the G10 portfolios.
This occurs due to the weaker correlation between the
Exchange rate (Indexed 1996−04−10 = 1)
1.5
BRL/USD THB/USD
INR/USD TWD/USD
KRW/USD ZAR/USD returns of the currencies.
MXN/USD
The Sharpe ratio of the emerging market portfolios are
1.0
TWD/USD
MXN/USD
ZAR/USD
THB/USD
BRL/USD
INR/USD
10
change that allows short selling cryptocurrency/USD pairs
(Bitfinex, 2017). The exchange Poloniex (2017) offers short-
0.5
Cumulative Return
1996−04−10 1999−01−04 2001−01−02 2003−01−02 2005−01−03 2007−01−02 2009−01−02 2011−01−03 2013−01−02 2015−01−02 2017−01−03
per that considers cryptocurrencies in traditional trading
Date strategies.
Since the cryptocurrencies can be traded even on week-
Figure 23: Backtest for emerging market currencies, time series ends and bank holidays, a slight adjustment in the algo-
portfolio. rithm is necessary. The period for the moving standard
deviation of Equation 6 has to be extended to 91 days and
the moving standard deviation of Equation 7 has to be
extended to 365 days. This results in a warm-up period
0.3
Cumulative Return
able per year, therefore fifteen months are needed for the
0.0
−0.04
1996−04−10 1999−01−04 2001−01−02 2003−01−02 2005−01−03 2007−01−02 2009−01−02 2011−01−03 2013−01−02 2015−01−02 2017−01−03 months of 2017 is striking. BTC/USD, DASH/USD, MAID-
Date /USD and XMR/USD are upwards trending. DOGE/USD,
LTC/USD and XRP/USD are primarily sideways trending.
Figure 24: Backtest for emerging market currencies, cross-sectional It is astounding that the currencies Monero (XMR) and
portfolio. Dash increased their value by more than 40 times during
this period.
TS
0.10
CS
Exchange rate (Indexed 2015−09−21 = 1)
50
BTC/USD
DASH/USD
DOGE/USD
40
Yearly returns
LTC/USD
0.05
MAID/USD
XMR/USD
XRP/USD
30
0.00
20
10
−0.05
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
9. Cryptocurrencies
Figure 27 shows the correlations between the arithmetic
In this section, a backtest is performed on cryptocur- returns of the cryptocurrencies. There is a strong corre-
rencies. Since there are far fewer financial products for lation between the arithmetic returns of BTC/USD and
cryptocurrencies compared to the well-established fiat cur- LTC/USD. The arithmetic returns of all other cryptocur-
rencies, it is questionable whether it makes sense to apply rencies show a weak correlation.
a trading strategy to cryptocurrencies. It is difficult to The result is a 42.02% annualized return and a Sharpe
short sell these currencies. Also, liquidity can be a problem ratio of 1.4843 for the time series portfolio. The cross-
when trading cryptocurrencies. We could only find one ex- sectional portfolio achieves an annualized return of 56.94%
11
DOGE/USD
DASH/USD
MAID/USD
strategy on cryptocurrencies because of the problems men-
XMR/USD
XRP/USD
BTC/USD
LTC/USD
tioned above. In the future, cryptocurrencies are going to
1
XMR/USD 1 0.16 0.3 0.2 0.14 0.09 0.03 become better established and easier to trade. This will be
0.8
the ideal time to start trading with a momentum strategy.
DASH/USD 0.16 1 0.34 0.23 0.17 0.16 0.1 0.6
0.4
BTC/USD 0.3 0.34 1 0.73 0.2 0.32 0.12
0.2
0.8
LTC/USD 0.2 0.23 0.73 1 0.13 0.34 0.11 0
Cumulative Return
0.6
−0.2
0.4
MAID/USD 0.14 0.17 0.2 0.13 1 0.17 0.08
0.2
−0.4
0.0
DOGE/USD 0.09 0.16 0.32 0.34 0.17 1 0.21 −0.6
−0.8
Daily Return
0.05
XRP/USD 0.03 0.1 0.12 0.11 0.08 0.21 1
−1
−0.05
Figure 27: Correlations between the arithmetic returns of the emerg-
Drawdown
−0.05
ing market currencies
−0.20
2015−09−21 2015−12−01 2016−02−01 2016−04−01 2016−06−01 2016−08−01 2016−10−01 2016−12−01 2017−02−01
Table 5: Summary Cryptocurrencies
Date
TS CS
Figure 28: Backtest for cryptocurrencies, time series portfolio.
Annualized Return 42.02% 56.94%
Annualized Standard Deviation 0.2831 0.3391
Annualized Sharpe Ratio (Rf = 0%) 1.4843 1.6793
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2
Cumulative Return
−0.05
tocurrencies have heavier tails compared to traditional fiat 2015−09−21 2015−12−01 2016−02−01 2016−04−01 2016−06−01 2016−08−01 2016−10−01 2016−12−01 2017−02−01
this risk, and therefore one should take these results with
a grain of salt. Figure 29: Backtest for cryptocurrencies, cross-sectional portfolio.
In comparison to the time series portfolios containing
traditional fiat currencies, much higher drawdowns were
measured. As shown in Figure 28 the largest drawdown in
0.6
TS
the time series portfolio with a magnitude of 23% occurred CS
0.5
0.3
12
10. Results strategy has not been profitable anymore when trading
G10 currencies.
The momentum strategy combined with a time series For emerging market currencies, the strategy is effec-
portfolio achieves the highest Sharpe ratios for traditional tive up to this day, with returns of up to 2.48% p.a and
fiat currencies. For cryptocurrencies, the cross-sectional a Sharpe ratio of 0.59. This underpins the findings of
portfolio offers higher risk-adjusted returns. Pukthuanthong-Le et al. (2007), who assumed that the
In the G10 currencies, the returns diminished in the profits in the traditional currencies (G10) vanished but
recent years. It seems that there is no momentum in G10 investing in exotic currencies (emerging markets) is prof-
currencies anymore. Therefore, the strategy is not useful itable.
anymore. As yet, no one has investigated momentum strategies
When comparing the G10 currencies time series portfo- in cryptocurrencies. We find that the algorithm generates
lio performance to the FX Momentum USD Index of the returns of up to 56.94% p.a. and a Sharpe ratio of 1.68
Deutsche Bank (2017), one can see a similar performance. for a cryptocurrency portfolio. However, the backtest only
The Deutsche Bank (DB) has achieved higher returns, but covers a period of 18 months. More data and a long-term
also suffers higher drawdowns. The index of the DB starts backtest are needed to make a more reliable statement
on the 19 June 1989, while our backtest starts in 1975 about the returns of a cryptocurrency momentum strategy.
already. The start of the performance of the DB Index is Our calculations overestimate the returns, since trans-
set to the same value as the performance of our backtest action costs and bid-ask spreads were not considered. The
on the 19 June 1989. transaction costs could be included in a next step. However,
they are comparatively low when one trades in sufficient
quantity, hence the results will not change completely.
● G10 momentum time series portfolio
An explanation for the outstandingly high returns for
1.2
Cumulative Return
algorithm to follow.
Drawdown
1975−10−14 1980−01−02 1986−01−02 1990−01−02 1994−01−03 1998−01−02 2002−01−02 2006−01−02 2010−01−01 2014−01−01
that the returns could be seen as compensation for the
Date
risk taken to hold these currencies. This explains why the
returns rise as the risk rises. G10 currencies are less risky
Figure 31: Comparison between our G10 time series portfolio and
the Deutsche Bank FX Momentum USD Index
than other currencies, and therefore G10 currencies have
lower returns than other currencies. The same applies to
cryptocurrencies. Investing in these currencies involves
However, in emerging market currencies, a decrease in much more risk than investments with traditional fiat cur-
returns could not be observed. The strategy has worked rencies. On the other hand, the return of cryptocurrencies
well for many years up to this day. is much higher when using the momentum strategy.
In the cryptocurrencies, strong momentum and remark-
ably high returns can be seen. Trading cryptocurrencies
with a momentum strategy could become a very popular
trading strategy.
In general, the strategy generates higher risk-adjusted
returns for currency types with higher volatility. Draw-
downs can usually be explained by unexpected events in
the financial markets. During calm periods the strategy
works well, but sudden market crashes cause drawdowns
of up to 18% in traditional fiat currencies and up to 23%
in cryptocurrencies.
11. Conclusion
13
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14
Appendix A. Data overview
Table A.1 shows an overview of the data used for the calculations and figures in this paper.
Base currency Currency pair Code Source Period Start date End date
Australian Dollar AUD/USD DEXUSAL FRED daily 1971-01-04 2017-03-20
Bitcoin BTC/USD BNC2 GWA BTC Quandl daily 2014-04-01 2017-03-20
Brazilian Reals BRL/USD DEXBZUS FRED daily 1995-01-02 2017-03-20
Canadian Dollar CAD/USD DEXCAUS FRED daily 1971-01-04 2017-03-20
Dash DASH/USD BNC2 GWA DASH Quandl daily 2014-04-07 2017-03-20
Dogecoin DOGE/USD BNC2 GWA DOGE Quandl daily 2014-04-01 2017-03-20
Euro EUR/USD DEXUSEU FRED daily 1999-01-04 2017-03-20
European Currency Unit ECU/USD ert bil eur d Eurostat daily 1974-07-02 1998-12-20
Indian Rupees INR/USD DEXINUS FRED daily 1973-01-02 2017-03-20
Japanese Yen JPY/USD DEXJPUS FRED daily 1971-01-04 2017-03-20
Litecoin LTC/USD BNC2 GWA LTC Quandl daily 2014-04-01 2017-03-20
Maidsafecoin MAID/USD BNC2 GWA MAID Quandl daily 2014-06-22 2017-03-20
Mexican New Pesos MXN/USD DEXMXUS FRED daily 1993-11-08 2017-03-20
Monero XMR/USD BNC2 GWA XMR Quandl daily 2014-05-19 2017-03-20
New Taiwan Dollars TWD/USD DEXTAUS FRED daily 1983-10-03 2017-03-20
New Zealand Dollar NZD/USD DEXUSNZ FRED daily 1971-01-04 2017-03-20
Norwegian Krone NOK/USD DEXNOUS FRED daily 1971-01-04 2017-03-20
Pound Sterling GBP/USD DEXUSUK FRED daily 1971-01-04 2017-03-20
Ripple XRP/USD BNC2 GWA CRP Quandl daily 2014-04-01 2017-03-20
South African Rand ZAR/USD DEXSFUS FRED daily 1971-01-04 2017-03-20
South Korean Won KRW/USD DEXKOUS FRED daily 1981-04-13 2017-03-20
Swedish Krona SEK/USD DEXSDUS FRED daily 1971-01-04 2017-03-20
Swiss Franc CHF/USD DEXSZUS FRED daily 1971-01-04 2017-03-20
Thai Baht THB/USD DEXTHUS FRED daily 1981-01-02 2017-03-20
15
100
Annualized Std Dev: 0.11
1.4
80
1.2
60
Density
1.0
40
0.8
20
0.6
0
Jul 01 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 04 −0.15 −0.10 −0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15
1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 2016
100
Annualized Std Dev: 0.16
1.0
80
0.8
60
Density
40
0.6
20
0.4
Jan 03 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 02 Jan 04 −0.10 −0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
20
800
Density
15
600
10
400
5
200
Jun 22 Dec 01 Jun 01 Dec 01 Jun 01 Nov 30 −0.2 −0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2
2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016
150
100
0.9
Density
0.8
50
0.7
Jul 01 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 04 −0.04 −0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04
1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 2016
16
1.4
60
1.0
Density
40
0.8
20
0.6
0.4
0
Jul 01 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 04 −0.15 −0.10 −0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15
1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 2016
12
Annualized Std Dev: 1.14
100
10
80
8
Density
60
6
40
4
20
2
0
0
Jun 22 Dec 01 Jun 01 Dec 01 Jun 01 Nov 30 −1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016
15
3e−04
Density
10
2e−04
5
1e−04
Jun 22 Dec 01 Jun 01 Dec 01 Jun 01 Nov 30 −0.6 −0.4 −0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6
2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016
60
1.2
Density
40
1.0
20
0.8
Jul 01 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 04 −0.06 −0.04 −0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06
1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 2016
17
100
2.4
80
2.0
60
Density
1.8
1.6
40
1.4
20
1.2
0
1.0
Jul 01 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 04 −0.05 0.00 0.05
1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 2016
250
Annualized Std Dev: 0.07
0.030
200
0.025
150
Density
100
0.020
50
0.015
Jan 03 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 02 Jan 04 −0.04 −0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
80
60
Density
40
20
0
Jul 01 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 04 −0.06 −0.04 −0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06
1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 2016
60
0.0010
Density
40
0.0008
20
0.0006
Jan 03 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 02 Jan 04 −0.2 −0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
18
10
20
8
15
Density
6
10
4
5
2
0
Jun 22 Dec 01 Jun 01 Dec 01 Jun 01 Nov 30 −0.4 −0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4
2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016
10
0.20
8
0.15
6
Density
0.10
4
0.05
2
0
Jun 22 Dec 01 Jun 01 Dec 01 Jun 01 Nov 30 −0.4 −0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4
2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016
50
40
Density
30
0.10
20
10
0.05
Jan 03 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 02 Jan 04 −0.2 −0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
80
0.18
60
Density
0.16
40
0.14
20
0.12
0.10
Jul 01 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 04 −0.06 −0.04 −0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06
1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 2016
19
100
Annualized Std Dev: 0.12
1.4
80
1.2
60
1.0
Density
40
0.8
0.6
20
0.4
0
Jul 01 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 04 −0.2 −0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2
1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 2016
80
60
0.20
Density
40
0.15
20
0.10
Jul 01 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 04 −0.15 −0.10 −0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15
1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 2016
100
Density
0.030
50
0.020
Jan 03 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 02 Jan 04 −0.2 −0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
300
200
Density
150
0.032
100
50
0.028
Jan 03 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 02 Jan 04 −0.04 −0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
20
10
Annualized Std Dev: 1.21
20
8
15
6
Density
10
4
2
5
0
0
15
Density
10
0.015
5
0.005
Jun 22 Dec 01 Jun 01 Dec 01 Jun 01 Nov 30 −0.4 −0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4
2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016
50
0.20
40
Density
30
0.15
20
0.10
10
0
Jan 03 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 02 Jan 04 −0.10 −0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
21
Appendix B. Histograms of the signal generating steps
Density
100
0
−0.010 −0.005 0.000 0.005 0.010 −1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
x1 y1
60 120
Density
Density
0.6
0.0
0
−0.010 −0.005 0.000 0.005 0.010 −1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
x2 y2
0.8
100
Density
Density
0.4
0 40
0.0
−0.010 −0.005 0.000 0.005 0.010 −1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
x3 y3
Density
1.5
0.3
0.0
0.0
−2 −1 0 1 2 −1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
z1 u1
3.0
0.0 0.6 1.2
Density
Density
1.5
0.0
−2 −1 0 1 2 −1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
z2 u2
1.2
Density
0.6
0.0
z3 u3
0.4
0.2
0.0
signal
22