PP 7767/09/2010(025354)

马来西亚
RHB Research
技术分析 Institute Sdn Bhd
A member of the
RHB Banking Group
Company No: 233327 -M

MARKET DATELINE

每周技术观 点 2010 年 10 月 4 日

原产品和外汇
美元处于更为看淡的利淡趋势内…

主要原产品的图表表现：
主要原产品的图表表现：

轻质原油期货 Light Sweet Crude Oil futures （ 原

图 1∶
∶轻质原油期货
轻质原油期货（
期货（周线图）
周线图）
油）

♦ 上周，美国轻质原油期货期货（US Light Sweet Crude

Oil）发动一轮出人意表的涨势，并完全冲破了 78 美元主要
阻力关口和 40 周移动平均线（即 77.55 美元）。

♦ 之前，原油连续连续超过 1 个月陷困于 74 美元至 78 美元

之间，并处于长期上升趋势线（UTL）和 40 周移动平均线
之间。

♦ 上周的多头突破蜡烛和 14 周强弱指标（14-week RSI）所

发出的一个新“买入”讯号，建议本周将出现跟进买盘动
力。

♦ 如今，它已准备就绪试叩 8 月的 82.97 美元高峰，然后才

迈向下一道位于 87 美元阻力前进。

♦ 目前，它将在 74 美元和 78 美元的强稳水平获得扶持。

原棕油期货 Crude Palm Oil futures （原棕油）

原棕油）
图 2∶
∶原棕油期货（
原棕油期货（周线图）
周线图）

♦ 原棕油期货（CPO）继续在上周复苏，并在靠近 2,760 令吉
关卡收市。

♦ CPO 一度写下 2,755 令吉的全周最高点，然后才以一根“类

似上吊线”（hangman-like）收 2,733 令吉。

♦ 技术而言，“上吊线”表示它将在近期回调。虽然如此，从动
力解读转俏和 10 周移动平均线的上升趋势看来，我们预料强
大购兴将会持续。

♦ 一旦破除 2,760 令吉阻力线，CPO 的近期展望将会转为多

头。

♦ 下一道阻力水平为 3,000 令吉和 3,300 令吉。

♦ 另一方面，稳健的扶持点落在 2,500 令吉。

请仔细阅读位于本报告尾页的重要披露（
请仔细阅读位于本报告尾页的重要披露（ IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES）

Page 1 of 3
特定外汇的图表解读：
特定外汇的图表解读：

图 3∶
∶令吉兑美元
令吉兑美元（
兑美元（周线图）
周线图） 令吉兑美元
令吉兑美元 Ringgit （令吉）
令吉）/ US$（
（美元）
美元）

♦ 一如所料，令吉兑美元汇率无法在上周发动一波技术反弹，
即使它在上周触及 3.07 目标后记录了一根“类似锤头线”
（hammer-like）。

♦ 相反地，美元却在上周创下一根黑烛，显示它将在近期维持
其利淡趋势。

♦ 这表示，尽管令吉于上周五已达到 3.07 – 即在 2009 年

10 月所形成的头肩顶型态（ Head & Shoulders）的目
标，但令吉还是有望进一步走强。

♦ 从动力指标刚向下转下看来，它即将在近日内冲破 3.07。

♦ 一旦破除 3.07，它将会迈向 3.00 心理水平前进。

图 4∶
∶日元兑美元
日元兑美元（
兑美元（周线图）
周线图） 日元兑美元
日元兑美元 Japanese Yen （日元）
日元）/ US$（
（美元）
美元）

♦ 如之前的预测一样，日元兑美元图表在上周进一步往下走
低，并以 83.30 报收。

♦ 上周的跌势已完全拖累它穿破下降趋势阻力线（DRL）（即
接近 84）。

♦ 若它无法在近日回弹至 DRL 以上，那么日元将会在近期内

进一步走强。

♦ 我们继续看好日元的技术展望，并预料它将会在近日走强，
以挑战超过 15 年高点，即 79.8。

♦ 当前的趋势将会维持下去，直到它能破除 DRL 和 87 图表阻

力水平为止。

图 5∶
∶欧元兑美元
欧元兑美元（
兑美元（周线图）
周线图） 欧元兑
欧元兑美元 Euro Dollar （欧元）
欧元）/ US$（
（美元）
美元）

♦ 上周五，欧元兑美元汇率一连第 3 周延伸其下跌趋势，并取
得第 3 根利淡黑烛，以形成一个“三只乌鸦”形态（three
black crows）。它目前处于一个空头趋势内。

♦ 此外，欧元已大力跌破 0.73 关键扶持水平。

♦ 一旦丢失这道水平，欧元将会在本周兑美元进一步发动跟进
涨潮。

♦ 我们认为，随着动力解读已转弱，欧元即将试叩 0.695 水
平。

♦ 展望未来，较强的目标为 0.695 至 0.66，至于当前阻力线

则是 0.73。

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 美元指数 US Dollar Index （DXY）
）
图 6∶
∶美元指数（
美元指数（周线图）
周线图）
♦ 美元指数（DXY）在跟进卖盘动力下于上周扩大跌势，并向
下走低至 78 扶持点。

♦ 从它划出另一根巨大利淡黑烛看来，其技术展望已明显地转
为更悲观。

♦ 由于它只稍微收在 78 扶持点以上，因此从当前疲弱的动力
指标看来，它极可能最早将在本周跌破 78 关卡。

♦ 若它确实在本周失守 78，那么接下来位于 78 的扶持水平也

将岌岌可危。

♦ 强大扶持点落在 71 至 74，即接近去年 11 月的 74.2 低

点。

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This report has been prepared by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (RHBRI) and is for private circulation only to clients of RHBRI and RHB Investment Bank Berhad
(previously known as RHB Sakura Merchant Bankers Berhad). It is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The
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be contrary to opinions expressed by other business units within the RHB Group as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. This report is not to be
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Technical recommendation framework for stocks and sectors are as follows: -

Technical Recommendation:
Trading Buy = Short-term positive opportunity spotted. It is an aggressive trading recommendation with a book to sellers’ price for short-term technical upside.
Bargain Buy = Short-term positive but technical signals have yet to trigger a rally. Traders can park and queue for their desired entry level within a small range.
Buy on Weakness = Short- to Medium-term positiveness anticipated, but technical readings are still negative. Traders can pick-up the stock for future rally.
Sell on Strength = Short-term momentum still positive, Traders are advice to lock in profit base on current strength.
Take Profit = Short-term target achieved. Traders are advice to exit before the technical readings turn bearish.
Avoid = Risky situation in the short-term and high volatility expected on the share price. Traders’ best strategy is staying away until it stabilises.

Technical Time Frame:

Immediate-term = short time frame within a contra period.
Short-term = moderate time frame within two to three contra periods. For tracking purposes, we refer to 10 trading days.
Medium-term = medium time frame usually refers to two to three weeks period. For tracking purposes, we refer to 20 trading days.

Technical recommendations are generally short-term in nature and may differ from RHBRI’s equity fundamental view and recommendation on the same company.

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