Tropical Cyclone

Tropical cyclone
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"Hurricane" redirects here. For other uses, see Hurricane (disambiguation).
Hurricane Isabel (2003) as seen from orbit duringExpedition 7 of the International Space Station. The eye, eyewall and
surrounding rainbands that are characteristics of tropical cyclones are clearly visible in this view from space.
A tropical cyclone is a storm system characterized by a large low-pressure center and

numerous thunderstorms that produce strong winds and heavy rain. Tropical cyclones feed on heat released
when moist air rises, resulting in condensation of water vapor contained in the moist air. They are fueled by a
different heat mechanism than other cyclonic windstorms such as nor'easters, European windstorms, and polar
lows, leading to their classification as "warm core" storm systems.
The term "tropical" refers to both the geographic origin of these systems, which form almost exclusively
in tropical regions of the globe, and their formation in maritime tropical air masses. The term "cyclone" refers to
such storms' cyclonic nature, with counterclockwise rotation in theNorthern Hemisphere and clockwise rotation
in the Southern Hemisphere. Depending on its location and strength, a tropical cyclone is referred to by names
such as hurricane, typhoon, tropical storm, cyclonic storm, tropical depression, and simply cyclone.
While tropical cyclones can produce extremely powerful winds and torrential rain, they are also able to produce
high waves and damaging storm surge as well as spawning tornadoes. They develop over large bodies of
warm water, and lose their strength if they move over land. This is why coastal regions can receive significant
damage from a tropical cyclone, while inland regions are relatively safe from receiving strong winds. Heavy
rains, however, can produce significant flooding inland, and storm surges can produce extensive
coastal flooding up to 40 kilometres (25 mi) from the coastline. Although their effects on human populations can
be devastating, tropical cyclones can also relieve drought conditions. They also carry heat and energy away
from the tropics and transport it toward temperate latitudes, which makes them an important part of the
global atmospheric circulation mechanism. As a result, tropical cyclones help to maintain equilibrium in the
Earth's troposphere, and to maintain a relatively stable and warm temperature worldwide.
Many tropical cyclones develop when the atmospheric conditions around a weak disturbance in the
atmosphere are favorable. The background environment is modulated by climatological cycles and patterns
such as the Madden-Julian oscillation, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation.
Others form when other types of cyclones acquire tropical characteristics. Tropical systems are then moved
by steering winds in the troposphere; if the conditions remain favorable, the tropical disturbance intensifies, and
can even develop an eye. On the other end of the spectrum, if the conditions around the system deteriorate or
the tropical cyclone makes landfall, the system weakens and eventually dissipates. It is not possible to
artificially induce the dissipation of these systems with current technology.
Part of a series on
Tropical cyclones
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Tropical cyclones portal
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Contents
[hide]
• 1 Physical structure
o 1.1 Eye and center
o 1.2 Size
• 2 Mechanics
• 3 Major basins and related warning centers
• 4 Formation
o 4.1 Times
o 4.2 Factors
o 4.3 Locations
• 5 Movement and track
o 5.1 Steering winds
o 5.2 Coriolis effect
o 5.3 Interaction with the mid-latitude
westerlies
o 5.4 Landfall
o 5.5 Multiple storm interaction
• 6 Dissipation
o 6.1 Factors
o 6.2 Artificial dissipation
• 7 Effects
• 8 Observation and forecasting
o 8.1 Observation
o 8.2 Forecasting
• 9 Sunspot theory
• 10 Classifications, terminology, and naming
o 10.1 Intensity classifications
 10.1.1 Tropical
depression
 10.1.2 Tropical storm
 10.1.3 Hurricane or
typhoon
o 10.2 Origin of storm terms

o 10.3 Naming
• 11 Notable tropical cyclones
• 12 Changes due to El Niño-Southern
Oscillation
• 13 Long-term activity trends
• 14 Global warming
• 15 Related cyclone types
• 16 Tropical cyclones in popular culture
• 17 See also
• 18 References
• 19 External links
[edit]Physical structure
See also: Eye (cyclone)
Structure of a tropical cyclone
All tropical cyclones are areas of low atmospheric pressure in the Earth's atmosphere. The pressures recorded
at the centers of tropical cyclones are among the lowest that occur on Earth's surface at sea level.[1] Tropical
cyclones are characterized and driven by the release of large amounts of latentheat of condensation, which
occurs when moist air is carried upwards and its water vapor condenses. This heat is distributed vertically
around the center of the storm. Thus, at any given altitude (except close to the surface, where water
temperature dictates air temperature) the environment inside the cyclone is warmer than its outer surroundings.
[2]
[edit]Eye and center

A strong tropical cyclone will harbor an area of sinking air at the center of circulation. If this area is strong
enough, it can develop into a large "eye". Weather in the eye is normally calm and free of clouds, although the
sea may be extremely violent.[3] The eye is normally circular in shape, and may range in size from 3 kilometres
(1.9 mi) to 370 kilometres (230 mi) in diameter.[4][5] Intense, mature tropical cyclones can sometimes exhibit an
outward curving of the eyewall's top, making it resemble a football stadium; this phenomenon is thus
sometimes referred to as the stadium effect.[6]
There are other features that either surround the eye, or cover it. The central dense overcast is the
concentrated area of strong thunderstorm activity near the center of a tropical cyclone;[7] in weaker tropical
cyclones, the CDO may cover the center completely.[8] The eyewall is a circle of strong thunderstorms that
surrounds the eye; here is where the greatest wind speeds are found, where clouds reach the highest, and
precipitation is the heaviest. The heaviest wind damage occurs where a tropical cyclone's eyewall passes over
land.[3] Eyewall replacement cycles occur naturally in intense tropical cyclones. When cyclones reach peak
intensity they usually have an eyewall and radius of maximum winds that contract to a very small size, around
10 kilometres (6.2 mi) to 25 kilometres (16 mi). Outer rainbands can organize into an outer ring of
thunderstorms that slowly moves inward and robs the inner eyewall of its needed moisture and angular
momentum. When the inner eyewall weakens, the tropical cyclone weakens (in other words, the maximum
sustained winds weaken and the central pressure rises.) The outer eyewall replaces the inner one completely
at the end of the cycle. The storm can be of the same intensity as it was previously or even stronger after the
eyewall replacement cycle finishes. The storm may strengthen again as it builds a new outer ring for the next
eyewall replacement.[9]
Size descriptions of tropical cyclones
ROCI Type
Less than 2 degrees latitude Very small/midget
2 to 3 degrees of latitude Small
3 to 6 degrees of latitude Medium/Average
6 to 8 degrees of latitude Large anti-dwarf
Over 8 degrees of latitude Very large[10]
[edit]Size
One measure of the size of a tropical cyclone is determined by measuring the distance from its center of
circulation to its outermost closed isobar, also known as its ROCI. If the radius is less than two degrees of
latitude or 222 kilometres (138 mi), then the cyclone is "very small" or a "midget". A radius between 3 and
6 latitude degrees or 333 kilometres (207 mi) to 670 kilometres (420 mi) are considered "average-sized". "Very
large" tropical cyclones have a radius of greater than 8 degrees or 888 kilometres (552 mi).[10] Use of this
measure has objectively determined that tropical cyclones in the northwest Pacific Ocean are the largest on
earth on average, with Atlantic tropical cyclones roughly half their size.[11] Other methods of determining a
tropical cyclone's size include measuring the radius of gale force winds and measuring the radius at which its
relative vorticity field decreases to 1×10−5s−1 from its center.[12][13]
[edit]Mechanics
Tropical cyclones form when the energy released by the condensation of moisture in rising air causes a positive feedback
loop over warm ocean waters.[14]
A tropical cyclone's primary energy source is the release of the heat of condensation from water
vapor condensing, with solar heating being the initial source for evaporation. Therefore, a tropical cyclone can
be visualized as a giant vertical heat engine supported by mechanics driven by physical forces such as
the rotation and gravity of the Earth.[15] In another way, tropical cyclones could be viewed as a special type
of mesoscale convective complex, which continues to develop over a vast source of relative warmth and
moisture. While an initial warm core system, such as an organized thunderstorm complex, is necessary for the
formation of a tropical cyclone, a large flux of energy is needed to lower atmospheric pressure more than a few
millibars (0.10 inch of mercury). The inflow of warmth and moisture from the underlying ocean surface is critical
for tropical cyclone strengthening.[16] A significant amount of the inflow in the cyclone is in the lowest 1 kilometre
(3,300 ft) of the atmosphere.[17]
Condensation leads to higher wind speeds, as a tiny fraction of the released energy is converted into
mechanical energy;[18] the faster winds and lower pressure associated with them in turn cause increased
surface evaporation and thus even more condensation. Much of the released energy drivesupdrafts that
increase the height of the storm clouds, speeding up condensation.[19] This positive feedback loop, called
the Wind-induced surface heat exchange, continues for as long as conditions are favorable for tropical cyclone
development. Factors such as a continued lack of equilibrium in air mass distribution would also give
supporting energy to the cyclone. The rotation of the Earth causes the system to spin, an effect known as
the Coriolis effect, giving it a cyclonic characteristic and affecting the trajectory of the storm.[20][21][22]
What primarily distinguishes tropical cyclones from other meteorological phenomena is deep convection as a
driving force.[23] Because convection is strongest in a tropical climate, it defines the initial domain of the tropical
cyclone. By contrast, mid-latitude cyclones draw their energy mostly from pre-existing horizontal
temperature gradients in the atmosphere.[23] To continue to drive its heat engine, a tropical cyclone must remain
over warm water, which provides the needed atmospheric moisture to keep the positive feedback loop running.
When a tropical cyclone passes over land, it is cut off from its heat source and its strength diminishes rapidly.[24]
Chart displaying the drop in surface temperature in the Gulf of Mexico as HurricanesKatrina and Rita passed over
The passage of a tropical cyclone over the ocean causes the upper layers of the ocean to cool substantially,
which can influence subsequent cyclone development. This cooling is primarily caused by wind-driven mixing
of cold water from deeper in the ocean and the warm surface waters. This effect results in a negative feedback
process which can inhibit further development or lead to weakening. Additional cooling may come in the form of
cold water from falling raindrops (this is because the atmosphere is cooler at higher altitudes). Cloud cover may
also play a role in cooling the ocean, by shielding the ocean surface from direct sunlight before and slightly
after the storm passage. All these effects can combine to produce a dramatic drop in sea surface temperature
over a large area in just a few days.[25]
Scientists estimate that a tropical cyclone releases heat energy at the rate of 50 to 200 exajoules (1018 J) per
day,[19] equivalent to about 1 PW (1015 watt). This rate of energy release is equivalent to 70 times the world
energy consumption of humans and 200 times the worldwide electrical generating capacity, or to exploding a
10-megaton nuclear bomb every 20 minutes.[19][26]
In the lower troposphere, the most obvious motion of clouds is toward the center. However tropical cyclones
also develop an upper-level (high-altitude) outward flow of clouds. These originate from air that has released its
moisture and is expelled at high altitude through the "chimney" of the storm engine.[15] This outflow produces
high, cirrus clouds that spiral away from the center. The clouds thin as they move outwards from the center of
the system and are evaporated. They may be thin enough for the sun to be visible through them. These high
cirrus clouds may be the first signs of an approaching tropical cyclone.[27] As air parcels are lifted within the eye
of the storm the vorticity is reduced, causing the outflow from a tropical cyclone to have anti-cyclonic motion.
[edit]Major basins and related warning centers

Main articles: Tropical cyclone basins and Regional Specialized Meteorological Center
Basins and WMO Monitoring Institutions[28]
Basin Responsible RSMCs and TCWCs
North Atlantic National Hurricane Center (United States)
North-East Pacific National Hurricane Center (United States)
North-Central Pacific Central Pacific Hurricane Center (United States)
North-West Pacific Japan Meteorological Agency
North Indian Ocean India Meteorological Department
South-West Indian Ocean Météo-France
Bureau of Meteorology† (Australia)

Australian region Meteorological and Geophysical Agency† (Indonesia)
Papua New Guinea National Weather Service†
Fiji Meteorological Service

Southern Pacific
Meteorological Service of New Zealand†
†
: Indicates a Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
There are six Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMCs) worldwide. These organizations are
designated by the World Meteorological Organization and are responsible for tracking and issuing bulletins,
warnings, and advisories about tropical cyclones in their designated areas of responsibility. Additionally, there
are six Tropical Cyclone Warning Centers (TCWCs) that provide information to smaller regions.[29] The RSMCs
and TCWCs are not the only organizations that provide information about tropical cyclones to the public.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issues advisories in all basins except the Northern Atlantic for the
purposes of the United States Government.[30] The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA) issues advisories and names for tropical cyclones that approach
the Philippines in the Northwestern Pacific to protect the life and property of its citizens.[31] TheCanadian
Hurricane Center (CHC) issues advisories on hurricanes and their remnants for Canadian citizens when they
affect Canada.[32]
On 26 March 2004, Cyclone Catarina became the first recorded South Atlantic cyclone and subsequently
struck southernBrazil with winds equivalent to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. As the
cyclone formed outside the authority of another warning center, Brazilian meteorologists initially treated the
system as an extratropical cyclone, although subsequently classified it as tropical.[33]
[edit]Formation
Main article: Tropical cyclogenesis
Map of the cumulative tracks of all tropical cyclones during the 1985–2005 time period. ThePacific Ocean west of
the International Date Linesees more tropical cyclones than any other basin, while there is almost no activity in the Atlantic
Ocean south of the Equator.
Map of all tropical cyclone tracks from 1945 to 2006. Equal-area projection.
Worldwide, tropical cyclone activity peaks in late summer, when the difference between temperatures aloft and
sea surface temperatures is the greatest. However, each particular basin has its own seasonal patterns. On a
worldwide scale, May is the least active month, while September is the most active whilst November is the only
month with all the tropical cyclone basins active.[34]
[edit]Times
In the Northern Atlantic Ocean, a distinct cyclone season occurs from June 1 to November 30, sharply peaking
from late August through September.[34]The statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is 10 September.
The Northeast Pacific Ocean has a broader period of activity, but in a similar time frame to the Atlantic.[35] The
Northwest Pacific sees tropical cyclones year-round, with a minimum in February and March and a peak in
early September. In the North Indian basin, storms are most common from April to December, with peaks in
May and November.[34] In the Southern Hemisphere, the tropical cyclone year begins on July 1 and runs all
year round and encompasses the tropical cyclone seasons which run from November 1 until the end of April
with peaks in mid-February to early March.[34][36]
Season lengths and seasonal averages[34][37]
Tropical Storms Tropical Cyclones Category 3+ TCs

Basin Season start Season end
(>34 knots) (>63 knots) (>95 knots)
Northwest Pacific April January 26.7 16.9 8.5
South Indian November April 20.6 10.3 4.3
Northeast Pacific May November 16.3 9.0 4.1
North Atlantic June November 10.6 5.9 2.0
Australia Southwest Pacific November April 9 4.8 1.9
North Indian April December 5.4 2.2 0.4
[edit]Factors
Waves in the trade winds in the Atlantic Ocean—areas of converging winds that move along the same track as the
prevailing wind—create instabilities in the atmosphere that may lead to the formation of hurricanes.
The formation of tropical cyclones is the topic of extensive ongoing research and is still not fully understood.
[38]
While six factors appear to be generally necessary, tropical cyclones may occasionally form without meeting
all of the following conditions. In most situations, water temperatures of at least 26.5 °C (79.7 °F) are needed
down to a depth of at least 50 m (160 ft);[39] waters of this temperature cause the overlying atmosphere to be
unstable enough to sustain convection and thunderstorms.[40] Another factor is rapid cooling with height, which
allows the release of the heat of condensation that powers a tropical cyclone.[39] High humidity is needed,
especially in the lower-to-mid troposphere; when there is a great deal of moisture in the atmosphere, conditions
are more favorable for disturbances to develop.[39] Low amounts of wind shear are needed, as high shear is
disruptive to the storm's circulation.[39] Tropical cyclones generally need to form more than 555 km (345 mi) or
5 degrees of latitude away from the equator, allowing theCoriolis effect to deflect winds blowing towards the
low pressure center and creating a circulation.[39] Lastly, a formative tropical cyclone needs a pre-existing
system of disturbed weather, although without a circulation no cyclonic development will take place.[39] Low-
latitude and low-level westerly wind bursts associated with the Madden-Julian oscillation can create favorable
conditions for tropical cyclogenesis by initiating tropical disturbances.[41]
[edit]Locations
Most tropical cyclones form in a worldwide band of thunderstorm activity called by several names: the
Intertropical Front (ITF), the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), or the monsoon trough.[42][43][44] Another
important source of atmospheric instability is found in tropical waves, which cause about 85% of intense
tropical cyclones in the Atlantic ocean, and become most of the tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific basin.[45]
[46][47]
Tropical cyclones move westward when equatorward of the subtropical ridge, intensifying as they move. Most
of these systems form between 10 and 30 degrees away of the equator, and 87% form no farther away than
20 degrees of latitude, north or south.[48][49] Because the Coriolis effect initiates and maintains tropical cyclone
rotation, tropical cyclones rarely form or move within about 5 degrees of the equator, where the Coriolis effect
is weakest.[48] However, it is possible for tropical cyclones to form within this boundary as Tropical Storm
Vamei did in 2001 and Cyclone Agni in 2004.[50][51]
[edit]Movement and track

[edit]Steering winds
See also: Prevailing winds
Although tropical cyclones are large systems generating enormous energy, their movements over the Earth's
surface are controlled by large-scale winds—the streams in the Earth's atmosphere. The path of motion is
referred to as a tropical cyclone's track and has been compared by Dr. Neil Frank, former director of
the National Hurricane Center, to "leaves carried along by a stream".[52]
Tropical systems, while generally located equatorward of the 20th parallel, are steered primarily westward by
the east-to-west winds on the equatorward side of the subtropical ridge—a persistent high pressure area over
the world's oceans.[52] In the tropical North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific oceans, trade winds—another name
for the westward-moving wind currents—steer tropical waves westward from the African coast and towards the
Caribbean Sea, North America, and ultimately into the central Pacific ocean before the waves dampen out.
[46]
These waves are the precursors to many tropical cyclones within this region.[45] In the Indian Ocean and
Western Pacific (both north and south of the equator), tropical cyclogenesis is strongly influenced by the
seasonal movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the monsoon trough, rather than by easterly
waves.[53] Tropical cyclones can also be steered by other systems, such as other low pressure systems, high
pressure systems,warm fronts, and cold fronts.
[edit]Coriolis effect
Infrared image of a powerful southern hemisphere cyclone, Monica, near peak intensity, showing clockwise rotation due to
the Coriolis effect
The Earth's rotation imparts an acceleration known as the Coriolis effect, Coriolis acceleration, or
colloquially, Coriolis force. This acceleration causes cyclonic systems to turn towards the poles in the absence
of strong steering currents.[54] The poleward portion of a tropical cyclone contains easterly winds, and the
Coriolis effect pulls them slightly more poleward. The westerly winds on the equatorward portion of the cyclone
pull slightly towards the equator, but, because the Coriolis effect weakens toward the equator, the net drag on
the cyclone is poleward. Thus, tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere usually turn north (before being
blown east), and tropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere usually turn south (before being blown east)
when no other effects counteract the Coriolis effect.[21]
The Coriolis effect also initiates cyclonic rotation, but it is not the driving force that brings this rotation to high
speeds – that force is the heat of condensation.[19]
[edit]Interaction with the mid-latitude westerlies

See also: Westerlies
Storm track of Typhoon Ioke, showing recurvature off the Japanese coast in 2006
When a tropical cyclone crosses the subtropical ridge axis, its general track around the high-pressure area is
deflected significantly by winds moving towards the general low-pressure area to its north. When the cyclone
track becomes strongly poleward with an easterly component, the cyclone has begun recurvature.[55] A typhoon
moving through the Pacific Ocean towards Asia, for example, will recurve offshore of Japan to the north, and
then to the northeast, if the typhoon encounters southwesterly winds (blowing northeastward) around a low-
pressure system passing over China or Siberia. Many tropical cyclones are eventually forced toward the
northeast by extratropical cyclones in this manner, which move from west to east to the north of the subtropical
ridge. An example of a tropical cyclone in recurvature was Typhoon Ioke in 2006, which took a similar
trajectory.[56]
[edit]Landfall
See also: List of notable tropical cyclones and Unusual areas of tropical cyclone formation
Officially, landfall is when a storm's center (the center of its circulation, not its edge) crosses the coastline.
[57]
Storm conditions may be experienced on the coast and inland hours before landfall; in fact, a tropical
cyclone can launch its strongest winds over land, yet not make landfall; if this occurs, then it is said that the
storm made a direct hit on the coast.[57] As a result of the narrowness of this definition, the landfall area
experiences half of a land-bound storm by the time the actual landfall occurs. For emergency preparedness,
actions should be timed from when a certain wind speed or intensity of rainfall will reach land, not from when
landfall will occur.[57]
[edit]Multiple storm interaction

Main article: Fujiwhara effect
When two cyclones approach one another, their centers will begin orbiting cyclonically about a point between
the two systems. The two vortices will be attracted to each other, and eventually spiral into the center point and
merge. When the two vortices are of unequal size, the larger vortex will tend to dominate the interaction, and
the smaller vortex will orbit around it. This phenomenon is called the Fujiwhara effect, after Sakuhei Fujiwhara.
[58]
[edit]Dissipation
[edit]Factors
Tropical Storm Franklin, an example of a strongly sheared tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Basin during 2005
A tropical cyclone can cease to have tropical characteristics in several different ways. One such way is if it
moves over land, thus depriving it of the warm water it needs to power itself, quickly losing strength.[59] Most
strong storms lose their strength very rapidly after landfall and become disorganized areas of low pressure
within a day or two, or evolve into extratropical cyclones. There is a chance a tropical cyclone could regenerate
if it managed to get back over open warm water, such as with Hurricane Ivan. If it remains over mountains for
even a short time, weakening will accelerate.[60] Many storm fatalities occur in mountainous terrain, as the dying
storm unleashes torrential rainfall,[61] leading to deadly floods and mudslides, similar to those that happened
with Hurricane Mitch in 1998.[62] Additionally, dissipation can occur if a storm remains in the same area of ocean
for too long, mixing the upper 60 metres (200 ft) of water, dropping sea surface temperatures more than 5 °C
(9 °F).[63] Without warm surface water, the storm cannot survive.[64]
A tropical cyclone can dissipate when it moves over waters significantly below 26.5 °C (79.7 °F). This will
cause the storm to lose its tropical characteristics (i.e. thunderstorms near the center and warm core) and
become a remnant low pressure area, which can persist for several days. This is the main dissipation
mechanism in the Northeast Pacific ocean.[65] Weakening or dissipation can occur if it experiences vertical wind
shear, causing the convection and heat engine to move away from the center; this normally ceases
development of a tropical cyclone.[66] Additionally, its interaction with the main belt of the Westerlies, by means
of merging with a nearby frontal zone, can cause tropical cyclones to evolve into extratropical cyclones. This
transition can take 1–3 days.[67] Even after a tropical cyclone is said to be extratropical or dissipated, it can still
have tropical storm force (or occasionally hurricane/typhoon force) winds and drop several inches of rainfall. In
the Pacific ocean and Atlantic ocean, such tropical-derived cyclones of higher latitudes can be violent and may
occasionally remain at hurricane or typhoon-force wind speeds when they reach the west coast of North
America. These phenomena can also affect Europe, where they are known as European
windstorms; Hurricane Iris's extratropical remnants are an example of such a windstorm from 1995.
[68]
Additionally, a cyclone can merge with another area of low pressure, becoming a larger area of low
pressure. This can strengthen the resultant system, although it may no longer be a tropical cyclone.[66] Studies
in the 2000s have given rise to the hypothesis that large amounts of dust reduce the strength of tropical
cyclones.[69]
[edit]Artificial dissipation
In the 1960s and 1970s, the United States government attempted to weaken hurricanes through Project
Stormfury by seeding selected storms with silver iodide. It was thought that the seeding would
cause supercooled water in the outer rainbands to freeze, causing the inner eyewall to collapse and thus
reducing the winds.[70] The winds of Hurricane Debbie—a hurricane seeded in Project Stormfury—dropped as
much as 31%, but Debbie regained its strength after each of two seeding forays.[71] In an earlier episode in
1947, disaster struck when a hurricane east of Jacksonville, Florida promptly changed its course after being
seeded, and smashed into Savannah, Georgia.[72] Because there was so much uncertainty about the behavior
of these storms, the federal government would not approve seeding operations unless the hurricane had a less
than 10% chance of making landfall within 48 hours, greatly reducing the number of possible test storms. The
project was dropped after it was discovered that eyewall replacement cycles occur naturally in strong
hurricanes, casting doubt on the result of the earlier attempts. Today, it is known that silver iodide seeding is
not likely to have an effect because the amount of supercooled water in the rainbands of a tropical cyclone is
too low.[73]
Other approaches have been suggested over time, including cooling the water under a tropical cyclone by
towing icebergs into the tropical oceans.[74] Other ideas range from covering the ocean in a substance that
inhibits evaporation,[75] dropping large quantities of ice into the eye at very early stages of development (so that
the latent heat is absorbed by the ice, instead of being converted to kinetic energy that would feed the positive
feedback loop),[74] or blasting the cyclone apart with nuclear weapons.[18] Project Cirrus even involved throwing
dry ice on a cyclone.[76] These approaches all suffer from one flaw above many others: tropical cyclones are
simply too large and short-lived for any of the weakening techniques to be practical.[77]
[edit]Effects
The aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in Gulfport, Mississippi.
Main article: Effects of tropical cyclones
Tropical cyclones out at sea cause large waves, heavy rain, and high winds, disrupting international shipping
and, at times, causing shipwrecks.[78]Tropical cyclones stir up water, leaving a cool wake behind them, which
causes the region to be less favorable for subsequent tropical cyclones.[25] On land, strong winds can damage
or destroy vehicles, buildings, bridges, and other outside objects, turning loose debris into deadly flying
projectiles. Thestorm surge, or the increase in sea level due to the cyclone, is typically the worst effect from
landfalling tropical cyclones, historically resulting in 90% of tropical cyclone deaths.[79] The broad rotation of a
landfalling tropical cyclone, and vertical wind shear at its periphery, spawns tornadoes. Tornadoes can also be
spawned as a result of eyewall mesovortices, which persist until landfall.[80]
Over the past two centuries, tropical cyclones have been responsible for the deaths of about 1.9 million people
worldwide. Large areas of standing water caused by flooding lead to infection, as well as contributing to
mosquito-borne illnesses. Crowded evacuees in shelters increase the risk of disease propagation.[81] Tropical
cyclones significantly interrupt infrastructure, leading to power outages, bridge destruction, and the hampering
of reconstruction efforts.[81][82]
Although cyclones take an enormous toll in lives and personal property, they may be important factors in
the precipitation regimes of places they impact, as they may bring much-needed precipitation to otherwise dry
regions.[83] Tropical cyclones also help maintain the global heat balance by moving warm, moist tropical air to
the middle latitudesand polar regions.[84] The storm surge and winds of hurricanes may be destructive to
human-made structures, but they also stir up the waters of coastal estuaries, which are typically important fish
breeding locales. Tropical cyclone destruction spurs redevelopment, greatly increasing local property values.[85]
[edit]Observation and forecasting

[edit]Observation
Main article: Tropical cyclone observation
Sunset view of Hurricane Isidore's rainbands photographed at 7,000 feet (2,100 m)
Intense tropical cyclones pose a particular observation challenge, as they are a dangerous oceanic
phenomenon, and weather stations, being relatively sparse, are rarely available on the site of the storm itself.
Surface observations are generally available only if the storm is passing over an island or a coastal area, or if
there is a nearby ship. Usually, real-time measurements are taken in the periphery of the cyclone, where
conditions are less catastrophic and its true strength cannot be evaluated. For this reason, there are teams of
meteorologists that move into the path of tropical cyclones to help evaluate their strength at the point of landfall.
[86]
Tropical cyclones far from land are tracked by weather satellites capturing visible and infrared images from
space, usually at half-hour to quarter-hour intervals. As a storm approaches land, it can be observed by land-
based Doppler radar. Radar plays a crucial role around landfall by showing a storm's location and intensity
every several minutes.[87]
In-situ measurements, in real-time, can be taken by sending specially equipped reconnaissance flights into the
cyclone. In the Atlantic basin, these flights are regularly flown by United States government hurricane hunters.
[88]
The aircraft used are WC-130 Hercules and WP-3D Orions, both four-engineturboprop cargo aircraft. These
aircraft fly directly into the cyclone and take direct and remote-sensing measurements. The aircraft also
launch GPS dropsondes inside the cyclone. These sondes measure temperature, humidity, pressure, and
especially winds between flight level and the ocean's surface. A new era in hurricane observation began when
a remotely piloted Aerosonde, a small drone aircraft, was flown through Tropical Storm Ophelia as it passed
Virginia's Eastern Shore during the 2005 hurricane season. A similar mission was also completed successfully
in the western Pacific ocean. This demonstrated a new way to probe the storms at low altitudes that human
pilots seldom dare.[89]
A general decrease in error trends in tropical cyclone path prediction is evident since the 1970s
[edit]Forecasting
See also: Tropical cyclone track forecasting, Tropical cyclone prediction model, and Tropical cyclone rainfall
forecasting
Because of the forces that affect tropical cyclone tracks, accurate track predictions depend on determining the
position and strength of high- and low-pressure areas, and predicting how those areas will change during the
life of a tropical system. The deep layer mean flow, or average wind through the depth of the troposphere, is
considered the best tool in determining track direction and speed. If storms are significantly sheared, use of
wind speed measurements at a lower altitude, such as at the 700 hPa pressure surface (3,000 metres / 9,800
feet above sea level) will produce better predictions. Tropical forecasters also consider smoothing out short-
term wobbles of the storm as it allows them to determine a more accurate long-term trajectory.[90] High-speed
computers and sophisticated simulation software allow forecasters to produce computer models that predict
tropical cyclone tracks based on the future position and strength of high- and low-pressure systems. Combining
forecast models with increased understanding of the forces that act on tropical cyclones, as well as with a
wealth of data from Earth-orbiting satellites and other sensors, scientists have increased the accuracy of track
forecasts over recent decades.[91] However, scientists are not as skillful at predicting the intensity of tropical
cyclones.[92] The lack of improvement in intensity forecasting is attributed to the complexity of tropical systems
and an incomplete understanding of factors that affect their development.
[edit]Sunspot theory
A 2010 report correlates low sunspot activity with high cyclonic activity. Fewer sunspots appear to decrease
temperature in the upper atmosphere, creating unstable conditions that help create cyclones. Analyzing
historical data, there had been a 25% chance of at least one hurricane striking the continental US during a
peak sunspot year; a 64% chance during a low sunspot year. In June 2010, the hurricanes predictors in the US
were not using this information.[93]
[edit]Classifications, terminology, and naming

[edit]Intensity classifications
Main article: Tropical cyclone scales
Three tropical cyclones at different stages of development. The weakest (left) demonstrates only the most basic circular
shape. A stronger storm (top right) demonstrates spiral banding and increased centralization, while the strongest (lower
right) has developed an eye.
Tropical cyclones are classified into three main groups, based on intensity: tropical depressions, tropical
storms, and a third group of more intense storms, whose name depends on the region. For example, if
a tropical storm in the Northwestern Pacific reaches hurricane-strength winds on theBeaufort scale, it is
referred to as a typhoon; if a tropical storm passes the same benchmark in the Northeast Pacific Basin, or
in the Atlantic, it is called a hurricane.[57] Neither "hurricane" nor "typhoon" is used in either the Southern
Hemisphere or the Indian Ocean. In these basins, storms of tropical nature are referred to simply as "cyclones".
Additionally, as indicated in the table below, each basin uses a separate system of terminology, making
comparisons between different basins difficult. In the Pacific Ocean, hurricanes from the Central North Pacific
sometimes cross the International Date Line into the Northwest Pacific, becoming typhoons (such
as Hurricane/Typhoon Ioke in 2006); on rare occasions, the reverse will occur.[94] It should also be noted that
typhoons with sustained winds greater than 67 metres per second (130 kn) or 150 miles per hour (240 km/h)
are called Super Typhoons by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.[95]
[edit]Tropical depression
A tropical depression is an organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with a defined, closed surface
circulation and maximum sustained winds of less than 17 metres per second (33 kn) or 38 miles per hour (61
km/h). It has no eye and does not typically have the organization or the spiral shape of more powerful storms.
However, it is already a low-pressure system, hence the name "depression".[15] The practice of
the Philippines is to name tropical depressions from their own naming convention when the depressions are
within the Philippines' area of responsibility.[96]
[edit]Tropical storm
A tropical storm is an organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and
maximum sustained winds between 17 metres per second (33 kn) (39 miles per hour (63 km/h)) and 32 metres
per second (62 kn) (73 miles per hour (117 km/h)). At this point, the distinctive cyclonic shape starts to develop,
although an eye is not usually present. Government weather services, other than the Philippines, first assign
names to systems that reach this intensity (thus the term named storm).[15]
[edit]Hurricane or typhoon
A hurricane or typhoon (sometimes simply referred to as a tropical cyclone, as opposed to a depression or

storm) is a system with sustained winds of at least 33 metres per second (64 kn) or 74 miles per hour (119
km/h).[15] A cyclone of this intensity tends to develop an eye, an area of relative calm (and lowest atmospheric
pressure) at the center of circulation. The eye is often visible in satellite images as a small, circular, cloud-free
spot. Surrounding the eye is the eyewall, an area about 16 kilometres (9.9 mi) to 80 kilometres (50 mi) wide in
which the strongest thunderstorms and winds circulate around the storm's center. Maximum sustained winds in
the strongest tropical cyclones have been estimated at about 85 metres per second (165 kn) or 195 miles per
hour (314 km/h).[97]
[hide]Tropical Cyclone Classifications (all winds are 10-minute averages)[98][99]

10-minute N Indian SW Indian NE Pacific &
Beaufort Australia SW Pacific NW Pacific NW Pacific
sustained Ocean Ocean N Atlantic
scale BOM FMS JMA JTWC
winds (knots) IMD MF NHC, CHC &CPHC
<28 knots (32

Trop.
0–6 mph; 52 Depression
Disturbance
km/h)
Tropical
Tropical Depression
Depression
28–29 knots
Tropical Tropical Tropical
(32–33 mph;
Low Depression Depression
52–54 km/h)
Deep
7 Depression
Depression
30–33 knots
(35–38 mph;
56–61 km/h)
34–47 knots Moderate

Cyclonic Tropical Tropical Tropical Tropical
8–9 (39–54 mph; Tropical Tropical Storm
Storm Cyclone (1) Cyclone (1) Storm Storm
63–87 km/h) Storm
48–55 knots
10 (55–63 mph;
89–102 km/h)
Severe Severe Severe
Tropical Tropical
Cyclonic Tropical Tropical
Cyclone (2) Cyclone (2)
56–63 knots Storm Storm Storm Typhoon
(64–72 mph;
11
104–117
km/h)
Hurricane (1)
12 64–72 knots Very Severe Tropical Typhoon

(74–83 mph; Cyclonic Cyclone
119–133 Storm
km/h)
Severe Severe
Tropical Tropical
Cyclone (3) Cyclone (3)
73–85 knots
(84–98 mph;
Hurricane (2)
135–157
km/h)
86–89 knots Severe Severe Major Hurricane (3)

(99–102 Tropical Tropical
mph; 159– Cyclone Cyclone (4)
165 km/h) (4)
90–99 knots
(100–114
mph; 170–
183 km/h)
100–106
knots (120–
Intense
122 mph;
Tropical
190–196
Cyclone
km/h)
107–114
knots (123–
131 mph; Major Hurricane (4)
198–211
km/h)
Severe
115–119 Severe
Tropical
knots (132– Tropical
Cyclone
137 mph; Cyclone (5)
(5)
213–220
km/h) Very Intense
Super
Tropical
Typhoon
Cyclone
>120 knots Super

(140 mph; Cyclonic Major Hurricane (5)
220 km/h) Storm
[edit]Origin of storm terms
Taipei 101 endures a typhoon in 2005
The word typhoon, which is used today in the Northwest Pacific, may be derived
from Urdu, Persian and Arabic ţūfān (‫)طوفان‬, which in turn originates fromGreek tuphōn (Τυφών), a monster
in Greek mythology responsible for hot winds.[100] The related Portuguese word tufão, used in Portuguese for
typhoons, is also derived from Greek tuphōn.[101] It is also similar to Chinese "taifeng" ("toifung" in Cantonese)
(颱風 – literally great winds), and also to the Japanese "taifu" (台風), which may explain why "typhoon" came to
be used for East Asian cyclones.[citation needed]
The word hurricane, used in the North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific, is derived from the name of a Mayan
storm god, Huracan, via Spanish huracán.[102](Huracan is also the source of the word Orcan, another word for
the European windstorm. These events should not be confused.) Huracan became the Spanish term for
hurricanes.
[edit]Naming
Main articles: Tropical cyclone naming and Lists of tropical cyclone names
Storms reaching tropical storm strength were initially given names to eliminate confusion when there are
multiple systems in any individual basin at the same time, which assists in warning people of the coming storm.
[103]
In most cases, a tropical cyclone retains its name throughout its life; however, under special circumstances,
tropical cyclones may be renamed while active. These names are taken from lists that vary from region to
region and are usually drafted a few years ahead of time. The lists are decided on, depending on the regions,
either by committees of the World Meteorological Organization (called primarily to discuss many other issues),
or by national weather offices involved in the forecasting of the storms. Each year, the names of particularly
destructive storms (if there are any) are "retired" and new names are chosen to take their place. Different
countries have different local conventions; for example, in Japan, storms are referred to by number (each year),
such as 台風第 9 号 (Typhoon #9).
[edit]Notable tropical cyclones

Main articles: List of notable tropical cyclones, List of Atlantic hurricanes, and List of Pacific hurricanes
Tropical cyclones that cause extreme destruction are rare, although when they occur, they can cause great
amounts of damage or thousands of fatalities. The 1970 Bhola cyclone is the deadliest tropical cyclone on
record, killing more than 300,000 people[104] and potentially as many as 1 million[105] after striking the densely
populated Ganges Delta region of Bangladesh on 13 November 1970. Its powerful storm surge was
responsible for the high death toll.[104] The North Indian cyclone basin has historically been the deadliest basin.
[81][106]
Elsewhere, Typhoon Nina killed nearly 100,000 in China in 1975 due to a 100-year flood that caused
62 dams including the Banqiao Dam to fail.[107] The Great Hurricane of 1780 is the deadliest Atlantic
hurricane on record, killing about 22,000 people in the Lesser Antilles.[108] A tropical cyclone does need not be
particularly strong to cause memorable damage, primarily if the deaths are from rainfall or mudslides. Tropical
Storm Thelma in November 1991 killed thousands in the Philippines,[109] while in 1982, the unnamed tropical
depression that eventually became Hurricane Paul killed around 1,000 people in Central America.[110]
Hurricane Katrina is estimated as the costliest tropical cyclone worldwide,[111] causing $81.2 billion in property
damage (2008 USD)[112] with overall damage estimates exceeding $100 billion (2005 USD).[111] Katrina killed at
least 1,836 people after striking Louisiana and Mississippi as a major hurricane in August 2005.[112] Hurricane
Andrew is the second most destructive tropical cyclone in U.S history, with damages totaling $40.7 billion
(2008 USD), and with damage costs at $31.5 billion (2008 USD), Hurricane Ike is the third most destructive
tropical cyclone in U.S history. TheGalveston Hurricane of 1900 is the deadliest natural disaster in the United
States, killing an estimated 6,000 to 12,000 people in Galveston, Texas.[113] Hurricane Mitch caused more than
10, 000 fatalities in Latin America. Hurricane Iniki in 1992 was the most powerful storm to strike Hawaii in
recorded history, hitting Kauai as a Category 4 hurricane, killing six people, and causing U.S. $3 billion in
damage.[114] Other destructive Eastern Pacific hurricanes include Pauline and Kenna, both causing severe
damage after striking Mexico as major hurricanes.[115][116] In March 2004, Cyclone Gafilostruck
northeastern Madagascar as a powerful cyclone, killing 74, affecting more than 200,000, and becoming the
worst cyclone to affect the nation for more than 20 years.[117]
The relative sizes of Typhoon Tip, Cyclone Tracy, and theContiguous United States
The most intense storm on record was Typhoon Tip in the northwestern Pacific Ocean in 1979, which reached
a minimum pressure of 870 mbar(25.69 inHg) and maximum sustained wind speeds of 165 knots (85 m/s) or
190 miles per hour (310 km/h).[118] Tip, however, does not solely hold the record for fastest sustained winds in a
cyclone. Typhoon Keith in the Pacific and Hurricanes Camille and Allen in the North Atlantic currently share this
record with Tip.[119] Camille was the only storm to actually strike land while at that intensity, making it, with
165 knots (85 m/s) or 190 miles per hour (310 km/h) sustained winds and 183 knots (94 m/s) or 210 miles per
hour (340 km/h) gusts, the strongest tropical cyclone on record at landfall.[120] Typhoon Nancy in 1961 had
recorded wind speeds of 185 knots (95 m/s) or 215 miles per hour (346 km/h), but recent research indicates
that wind speeds from the 1940s to the 1960s were gauged too high, and this is no longer considered the storm
with the highest wind speeds on record.[97] Similarly, a surface-level gust caused by Typhoon
Paka on Guam was recorded at 205 knots (105 m/s) or 235 miles per hour (378 km/h). Had it been confirmed,
it would be the strongest non-tornadic wind ever recorded on the Earth's surface, but the reading had to be
discarded since the anemometer was damaged by the storm.[121]
In addition to being the most intense tropical cyclone on record, Tip was the largest cyclone on record, with
tropical storm-force winds 2,170 kilometres (1,350 mi) in diameter. The smallest storm on record, Tropical
Storm Marco, formed during October 2008, and made landfall inVeracruz. Marco generated tropical storm-force
winds only 37 kilometres (23 mi) in diameter.[122]
Hurricane John is the longest-lasting tropical cyclone on record, lasting 31 days in 1994. Before the advent of
satellite imagery in 1961, however, many tropical cyclones were underestimated in their durations.[123] John is
also the longest-tracked tropical cyclone in the Northern Hemisphere on record, which had a path of
7,165 miles (13,280 km). Reliable data for Southern Hemisphere cyclones is unavailable.[124]
[edit]Changes due to El Niño-Southern Oscillation

See also: El Niño-Southern Oscillation
Most tropical cyclones form on the side of the subtropical ridge closer to the equator, then move poleward past
the ridge axis before recurving into the main belt of the Westerlies.[125] When thesubtropical ridge position shifts
due to El Nino, so will the preferred tropical cyclone tracks. Areas west of Japan and Korea tend to experience
much fewer September-November tropical cyclone impacts during El Niño and neutral years. During El Niño
years, the break in the subtropical ridge tends to lie near 130°E which would favor the Japanese archipelago.
[126]
During El Niño years, Guam's chance of a tropical cyclone impact is one-third of the long term average.
[127]
The tropical Atlantic ocean experiences depressed activity due to increased vertical wind shear across the
region during El Niño years.[128] During La Niña years, the formation of tropical cyclones, along with the
subtropical ridge position, shifts westward across the western Pacific ocean, which increases the landfall threat
to China.[126]
[edit]Long-term activity trends

See also: Atlantic hurricane reanalysis
Atlantic Multidecadal Cycle since 1950, usingaccumulated cyclone energy (ACE)

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Timeseries, 1856–2009
While the number of storms in the Atlantic has increased since 1995, there is
no obvious global trend; the annual number of tropical cyclones worldwide
remains about 87 ± 10. However, the ability of climatologists to make long-
term data analysis in certain basins is limited by the lack of reliable historical
data in some basins, primarily in the Southern Hemisphere.[129] In spite of
that, there is some evidence that the intensity of hurricanes is
increasing.Kerry Emanuel stated, "Records of hurricane activity worldwide
show an upswing of both the maximum wind speed in and the duration of
hurricanes. The energy released by the average hurricane (again
considering all hurricanes worldwide) seems to have increased by around
70% in the past 30 years or so, corresponding to about a 15% increase in
the maximum wind speed and a 60% increase in storm lifetime."[130]
Atlantic storms are becoming more destructive financially, since five of the
ten most expensive storms in United States history have occurred since
1990. According to the World Meteorological Organization, “recent increase
in societal impact from tropical cyclones has largely been caused by rising
concentrations of population and infrastructure in coastal
regions.”[131] Pielke et al. (2008) normalized mainland U.S. hurricane damage
from 1900–2005 to 2005 values and found no remaining trend of increasing
absolute damage. The 1970s and 1980s were notable because of the
extremely low amounts of damage compared to other decades. The decade
1996–2005 was the second most damaging among the past 11 decades,
with only the decade 1926–1935 surpassing its costs. The most damaging
single storm is the 1926 Miami hurricane, with $157 billion of normalized
damage.[132]
Often in part because of the threat of hurricanes, many coastal regions had
sparse population between major ports until the advent of automobile
tourism; therefore, the most severe portions of hurricanes striking the coast
may have gone unmeasured in some instances. The combined effects of
ship destruction and remote landfall severely limit the number of intense
hurricanes in the official record before the era of hurricane reconnaissance
aircraft and satellite meteorology. Although the record shows a distinct
increase in the number and strength of intense hurricanes, therefore, experts
regard the early data as suspect.[133]
The number and strength of Atlantic hurricanes may undergo a 50–70 year
cycle, also known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Nyberg et
al.reconstructed Atlantic major hurricane activity back to the early 18th
century and found five periods averaging 3–5 major hurricanes per year and
lasting 40–60 years, and six other averaging 1.5–2.5 major hurricanes per
year and lasting 10–20 years. These periods are associated with the Atlantic
multidecadal oscillation. Throughout, a decadal oscillation related to solar
irradiance was responsible for enhancing/dampening the number of major
hurricanes by 1–2 per year.[134]
Although more common since 1995, few above-normal hurricane seasons

occurred during 1970–94.[135] Destructive hurricanes struck frequently from
1926–60, including many major New England hurricanes. Twenty-one
Atlantic tropical storms formed in 1933, a record only recently exceeded
in 2005, which saw 28 storms. Tropical hurricanes occurred infrequently
during the seasons of 1900–25; however, many intense storms formed
during 1870–99. During the 1887 season, 19 tropical storms formed, of
which a record 4 occurred after 1 November and 11 strengthened into
hurricanes. Few hurricanes occurred in the 1840s to 1860s; however, many
struck in the early 19th century, including a 1821 storm that made a direct hit
on New York City. Some historical weather experts say these storms may
have been as high as Category 4 in strength.[136]
These active hurricane seasons predated satellite coverage of the Atlantic

basin. Before the satellite era began in 1960, tropical storms or hurricanes
went undetected unless a reconnaissance aircraft encountered one, a ship
reported a voyage through the storm, or a storm hit land in a populated area.
[133]
The official record, therefore, could miss storms in which no ship
experienced gale-force winds, recognized it as a tropical storm (as opposed
to a high-latitude extra-tropical cyclone, a tropical wave, or a brief squall),
returned to port, and reported the experience.
Proxy records based on paleotempestological research have revealed that

major hurricane activity along the Gulf of Mexico coast varies on timescales
of centuries to millennia.[137][138] Few major hurricanes struck the Gulf coast
during 3000–1400 BC and again during the most recent millennium. These
quiescent intervals were separated by a hyperactive period during 1400 BC
and 1000 AD, when the Gulf coast was struck frequently by catastrophic
hurricanes and their landfall probabilities increased by 3–5 times. This
millennial-scale variability has been attributed to long-term shifts in the
position of the Azores High,[138] which may also be linked to changes in the
strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation.[139]
According to the Azores High hypothesis, an anti-phase pattern is expected

to exist between the Gulf of Mexico coast and the Atlantic coast. During the
quiescent periods, a more northeasterly position of the Azores High would
result in more hurricanes being steered towards the Atlantic coast. During
the hyperactive period, more hurricanes were steered towards the Gulf coast
as the Azores High was shifted to a more southwesterly position near the
Caribbean. Such a displacement of the Azores High is consistent with
paleoclimatic evidence that shows an abrupt onset of a drier climate
inHaiti around 3200 14C years BP,[140] and a change towards more humid
conditions in the Great Plains during the late-Holocene as more moisture
was pumped up the Mississippi Valley through the Gulf coast. Preliminary
data from the northern Atlantic coast seem to support the Azores High
hypothesis. A 3000-year proxy record from a coastal lake in Cape
Cod suggests that hurricane activity increased significantly during the past
500–1000 years, just as the Gulf coast was amid a quiescent period of the
last millennium.
[edit]Global warming
See also: Effects of global warming
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory performed a
simulation to determine if there is a statistical trend in the frequency or
strength of tropical cyclones over time. The simulation concluded "the
strongest hurricanes in the present climate may be upstaged by even
more intense hurricanes over the next century as the earth's climate is
warmed by increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere".
[141]
In an article in Nature, Kerry Emanuel stated that potential hurricane

destructiveness, a measure combining hurricane strength, duration,
and frequency, "is highly correlated with tropical sea surface
temperature, reflecting well-documented climate signals, including
multidecadal oscillations in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and
global warming". Emanuel predicted "a substantial increase in
hurricane-related losses in the twenty-first century".[142] In more recent
work published by Emanuel (in the March 2008 issue of the Bulletin of
the American Meteorological Society), he states that new climate
modeling data indicates “global warming should reduce the global
frequency of hurricanes.”[143] According to the Houston Chronicle, the
new work suggests that, even in a dramatically warming world,
hurricane frequency and intensity may not substantially rise during the
next two centuries.[144]
Similarly, P.J. Webster and others published an article

in Science examining the "changes in tropical cyclone number,
duration, and intensity" over the past 35 years, the period when
satellite data has been available. Their main finding was although the
number of cyclones decreased throughout the planet excluding the
north Atlantic Ocean, there was a great increase in the number and
proportion of very strong cyclones.[145]
Costliest U.S. Atlantic hurricanes
Total estimated property damage, adjusted for wealth normalization[132]
Rank Hurricane Season Cost (2005 USD)

1 "Miami" 1926 $157 billion
2 "Galveston" 1900 $99.4 billion
3 Katrina 2005 $81.0 billion
4 "Galveston" 1915 $68.0 billion
5 Andrew 1992 $55.8 billion
6 "New England" 1938 $39.2 billion
7 "Cuba–Florida" 1944 $38.7 billion
8 "Okeechobee" 1928 $33.6 billion
9 Donna 1960 $26.8 billion
10 Camille 1969 $21.2 billion
Main article: List of costliest Atlantic hurricanes
The strength of the reported effect is surprising in light of modeling

studies[146] that predict only a one half category increase in storm
intensity as a result of a ~2 °C (3.6 °F) global warming. Such a
response would have predicted only a ~10% increase in Emanuel's
potential destructiveness index during the 20th century rather than the
~75–120% increase he reported.[142] Secondly, after adjusting for
changes in population and inflation, and despite a more than 100%
increase in Emanuel's potential destructiveness index, no statistically
significant increase in the monetary damages resulting from Atlantic
hurricanes has been found.[132][147]
Sufficiently warm sea surface temperatures are considered vital to the

development of tropical cyclones.[148] Although neither study can
directly link hurricanes with global warming, the increase in sea surface
temperatures is believed to be due to both global warming and natural
variability, e.g. the hypothesized Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation (AMO), although an exact attribution has not been defined.
[149]
However, recent temperatures are the warmest ever observed for
many ocean basins.[142]
In February 2007, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change released its fourth assessment report on climate
change. The report noted many observed changes in the climate,
including atmospheric composition, global average temperatures,
ocean conditions, among others. The report concluded the observed
increase in tropical cyclone intensity is larger than climate models
predict. Additionally, the report considered that it is likely that storm
intensity will continue to increase through the 21st century, and
declared it more likely than not that there has been some human
contribution to the increases in tropical cyclone intensity.[150] However,
there is no universal agreement about the magnitude of the effects
anthropogenic global warming has on tropical cyclone formation, track,
and intensity. For example, critics such as Chris Landsea assert that
man-made effects would be "quite tiny compared to the observed large
natural hurricane variability".[151] A statement by the American
Meteorological Society on 1 February 2007 stated that trends in
tropical cyclone records offer "evidence both for and against the
existence of a detectable anthropogenic signal" in tropical
cyclogenesis.[152] Although many aspects of a link between tropical
cyclones and global warming are still being "hotly debated",[153] a point
of agreement is that no individual tropical cyclone or season can be
attributed to global warming.[149][153] Research reported in the 3
September 2008 issue of Nature found that the strongest tropical
cyclones are getting stronger, particularly over the North Atlantic and
Indian oceans. Wind speeds for the strongest tropical storms increased
from an average of 140 miles per hour (230 km/h) in 1981 to 156 miles
per hour (251 km/h) in 2006, while the ocean temperature, averaged
globally over the all regions where tropical cyclones form, increased
from 28.2 °C (82.8 °F) to 28.5 °C (83.3 °F) during this period.[154][155]
[edit]Related cyclone types

Subtropical Storm Gustav in 2002
See also: Cyclone, Extratropical cyclone, and Subtropical cyclone
In addition to tropical cyclones, there are two other classes of cyclones

within the spectrum of cyclone types. These kinds of cyclones, known
asextratropical cyclones and subtropical cyclones, can be stages a
tropical cyclone passes through during its formation or dissipation.
[156]
Anextratropical cyclone is a storm that derives energy from
horizontal temperature differences, which are typical in higher latitudes.
A tropical cyclone can become extratropical as it moves toward higher
latitudes if its energy source changes from heat released by
condensation to differences in temperature between air masses;
additionally, although not as frequently, an extratropical cyclone can
transform into a subtropical storm, and from there into a tropical
cyclone.[157] From space, extratropical storms have a characteristic
"comma-shaped" cloud pattern.[158] Extratropical cyclones can also be
dangerous when their low-pressure centers cause powerful winds and
high seas.[159]
A subtropical cyclone is a weather system that has some

characteristics of a tropical cyclone and some characteristics of an
extratropical cyclone. They can form in a wide band of latitudes, from
the equator to 50°. Although subtropical storms rarely have hurricane-
force winds, they may become tropical in nature as their cores warm.
[160]
From an operational standpoint, a tropical cyclone is usually not
considered to become subtropical during its extratropical transition.[161]
[edit]Tropical cyclones in popular culture

Main article: Tropical cyclones in popular culture
In popular culture, tropical cyclones have made appearances in

different types of media, including films, books, television, music,
and electronic games. The media can have tropical cyclones that are
entirely fictional, or can be based on real events.[162] For
example, George Rippey Stewart's Storm, a best-seller published in
1941, is thought to have influenced meteorologists into giving female
names to Pacific tropical cyclones.[163] Another example is the hurricane
in The Perfect Storm, which describes the sinking of the Andrea Gail by
the 1991 Perfect Storm.[164] Also, hypothetical hurricanes have been
featured in parts of the plots of series such as The
Simpsons, Invasion, Family Guy, Seinfeld, Dawson's Creek, and CSI
Miami.[162][165][166][167][168][169] The 2004 film The Day After
Tomorrow includes several mentions of actual tropical cyclones as well
as featuring fantastical "hurricane-like" non-tropical Arctic storms.[170][171]
[edit]See also
Tropical cyclones portal
 Cyclone  Hypercane
 Disaster preparedness  List of wettest tropical cyclones by
 HURDAT (online database) country
 Hurricane Alley
 Secondary flow in tropical cyclones
 Saffir–Simpson Hurricane
Scale
Annual seasons Forecasting an
 List of Atlantic hurricane seasons (current)  Catas

 List of North Indian Ocean cyclone seasons (current)  Hurric
 List of Pacific hurricane seasons (current)  Hurric
 List of Pacific typhoon seasons (current)  Hurric
 List of South-West Indian Ocean cyclone seasons (current)
 Tropi
 List of Australian region cyclone seasons (current)
 List of South Pacific cyclone seasons (current)

[edit]References
1. ^ Symonds, Steve (2003-11-17). "Highs and
Lows". Wild Weather (Australian Broadcasting Corporation).
Archived from the original on October 11, 2007. Retrieved 2007-
03-23.
2. ^ Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological
Laboratory, Hurricane Research Division. "Frequently Asked

Questions: What is an extra-tropical cyclone?". National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved 2007-03-23.
3. ^ a b National Weather Service (2005-10-19). "Tropical
Cyclone Structure". JetStream — An Online School for
Weather. National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration.
Retrieved 2009-05-07.
4. ^ Pasch, Richard J.; Eric S. Blake, Hugh D. Cobb III,
and David P. Roberts (2006-09-28). "Tropical Cyclone Report:
Hurricane Wilma: 15–25 October 2005" (PDF). National
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Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers
 US National Hurricane Center – North Atlantic, Eastern

Pacific
 Central Pacific Hurricane Center – Central Pacific
 Japan Meteorological Agency – NW Pacific
 India Meteorological Department – Bay of Bengal and

the Arabian Sea
 Japan Meteorological Agency – NW Pacific
 Météo-France – La Reunion – South Indian Ocean from

30°E to 90°E
 Fiji Meteorological Service – South Pacific west of 160°E,
north of 25° S
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centers
 Indonesian Meteorological Department – South Indian

Ocean from 90°E to 125°E, north of 10°S
 Australian Bureau of Meteorology (TCWC's Perth, Darwin &

Brisbane). – South Indian Ocean & South Pacific Ocean from 90°E
to 160°E, south of 10°S
 Meteorological Service of New Zealand Limited – South

Pacific west of 160°E, south of 25°S
Reference
 Hurricane Glossary of Terms
[show]
v•d•e
Cyclones and Anticyclones of the wo
Categories: Basic meteorological concepts and phenomena | Tropical

cyclone meteorology | Tropical cyclones | Types of
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Tropical Cyclone

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Tropical Cyclone

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Tropical cyclone

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

A tropical cyclone is a storm system characterized by a large low-pressure center and

Formation and naming[show]

Climatology and tracking[show]

Tropical cyclones portal

o 1.1 Eye and center

• 3 Major basins and related warning centers

• 5 Movement and track

o 5.1 Steering winds

o 5.2 Coriolis effect

o 5.3 Interaction with the mid-latitude

o 5.5 Multiple storm interaction

o 6.2 Artificial dissipation

• 8 Observation and forecasting

• 10 Classifications, terminology, and naming

o 10.1 Intensity classifications

 10.1.2 Tropical storm

o 10.2 Origin of storm terms

• 11 Notable tropical cyclones

• 12 Changes due to El Niño-Southern

• 13 Long-term activity trends

• 15 Related cyclone types

• 16 Tropical cyclones in popular culture

Structure of a tropical cyclone

[edit]Eye and center

Size descriptions of tropical cyclones

Less than 2 degrees latitude Very small/midget

2 to 3 degrees of latitude Small

3 to 6 degrees of latitude Medium/Average

6 to 8 degrees of latitude Large anti-dwarf

Over 8 degrees of latitude Very large[10]

[edit]Major basins and related warning centers

Basins and WMO Monitoring Institutions[28]

Basin Responsible RSMCs and TCWCs

North Atlantic National Hurricane Center (United States)

North-East Pacific National Hurricane Center (United States)

North-Central Pacific Central Pacific Hurricane Center (United States)

North-West Pacific Japan Meteorological Agency

North Indian Ocean India Meteorological Department

South-West Indian Ocean Météo-France

Bureau of Meteorology† (Australia)

Fiji Meteorological Service

Main article: Tropical cyclogenesis

Season lengths and seasonal averages[34][37]

Tropical Storms Tropical Cyclones Category 3+ TCs

Northwest Pacific April January 26.7 16.9 8.5

South Indian November April 20.6 10.3 4.3

Northeast Pacific May November 16.3 9.0 4.1

North Atlantic June November 10.6 5.9 2.0

Australia Southwest Pacific November April 9 4.8 1.9

North Indian April December 5.4 2.2 0.4

[edit]Movement and track

[edit]Interaction with the mid-latitude westerlies

[edit]Multiple storm interaction

The aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in Gulfport, Mississippi.

Main article: Effects of tropical cyclones

[edit]Observation and forecasting

Main article: Tropical cyclone observation

Sunset view of Hurricane Isidore's rainbands photographed at 7,000 feet (2,100 m)

[edit]Classifications, terminology, and naming

A hurricane or typhoon (sometimes simply referred to as a tropical cyclone, as opposed to a depression or

[hide]Tropical Cyclone Classifications (all winds are 10-minute averages)[98][99]