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ICRA predicts decent growth for domestic poultry industry
BY SUTANUKA GHOSAL, ET BUREAU | APR 04, 2018, 05.39 PM IST Post a Comment
Backed by favourable socioeconomic factors, the domestic poultry industry, comprising
chiefly of broiler meat and table eggs, is expected to grow at a steady pace in the medium
to longterm. The healthy growth registered by the industry in the past decade has made
India into one of the fastest growing poultry market, according to an ICRA note released
on Wednesday.
Globally too, the country has emerged as one of the fastest growing poultry producer over
the last decade and is currently the fourth largest in volume terms. With domestic per
capita consumption still one of the lowest in the world, the industry has the potential to
grow further.
According to ICRA analysis, India remains
Giving more insights into the industry, Mr. Ashish Modani, Assistant Vice President, predominantly a live bird market with close to 90% of
broiler sales being done at traditional retail outlets
Corporate Sector ratings, ICRA says, “The domestic poultry industry mainly consists of
given consumer preference for freshly cut broiler.
broiler meat and table egg with other poultry meat forming marginal proportion of overall
market. Based on average chick placements per month, total broiler market size is
EXPAND
estimated at 4.2 million tons (carcass weight), translating into volume growth of 7% year RELATED COMPANIES
onyear during calendar year 2017.
icra
As per ICRA’s estimate, per capita meat consumption is around 3.6 kg p.a. which puts
Big Change:
total broiler meat market size at Rs. 730 billion in terms of retail price. The domestic table The end of FiveYear Plans: All you need to know
egg production for CY2017 is estimated at 84 billion eggs translating to a per capita egg
consumption of 63 egg p.a. and market size of Rs. 420 billion. The broiler volume growth is intentionally kept at manageable levels to
avoid supply glut given industry wide supply control measures adopted like lower chick placements, hatching holidays, early liquidation
of parent stock, etc. to control supply and ensure reasonable broiler realizations.”
The industry’s profitability remained stable in FY2018, driven by low soymeal prices and remunerative broiler and table egg realisations
throughout the year. The average farm gate broiler realizations for FY2018 at Rs. 75/kg are better than Rs. 70/kg in FY2017 while
average broiler production costs at Rs. 60/kg in FY2018 is almost 67% lesser than FY2017 levels given stable soymeal prices in
FY2018, especially during 9mFY2018 post a sharp decline in FY2017. Same is expected to result in improvement in operating margins
for the poultry integrators during FY2018 with aggregate operating margins for ICRA set of companies projected to remain stable at 7.5
8% in FY2018.
As for poultry feed costs, they have witnessed a downward trend since second half of FY2017 following weak soymeal and maize
prices. And with adequate inventory coupled with tepid exports, feed prices are expected to remain modest in FY2019 though on a Yo
Y basis; there will be some increase in overall feed prices which will result in moderation in margin during FY2019.
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According to ICRA analysis, India remains predominantly a live bird market with close to 90% of broiler sales being done at traditional
retail outlets given consumer preference for freshly cut broiler. Therefore poultry processing, is still at a nascent stage with less than
10% revenue share. But it continues to register double digit growth driven by favourable socioeconomic factors and increasing
penetration of QSR chains. Large integrators continue to invest in developing infrastructure for meat processing though shift in
consumer preferences will take time.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/icra-predicts-decent-growth-for-domestic-poultry-industry/printarticle/63613459.cms 1/3
As opposed to Indian market, processed chicken market in USA, EU and Australia comprise close to 90% while China, South East Asia
6/12/2018 ICRA predicts decent growth for domestic poultry industry - The Economic Times
etc. consume 50% of processed chicken. Given the Indian consumers’ belief that fresh meat is healthy and germ free, the retailing of
live bird is limited to a small geography as it is a perishable product. Moreover, limited cold storage / transportation infrastructure renders
wide distribution uneconomical. This often results in regional poultry production and consumption imbalances accentuated by seasonal
nature of consumption across regions.
Till 2015, ICRA’s set of players had aggressive business expansion but the industry went into a consolidation mode after 2015 as capex
plans fell by 2530% of previously seen levels. This combined with sizeable debt added over the years and moderation in accruals
resulted in deterioration of capital structure and coverage indicators for the industry. With improvement in realizations and low feed
prices, profit margins have improved leading to moderation in gearing from 1.8x in FY2015 to 1.4x in FY2017.
The trend has continued in FY2018 and the gearing is expected to moderate to 1.3x. Incremental capex plans are limited and the focus
is largely towards debottlenecking and improving productivity. Credit profile of most players has however witnessed substantial
improvement, supported by two years of strong cash accruals and subsequent repayment of debt. ICRA expects credit profile of large
players in the industry to remain stable over next 12 18 months.
Adds Mr. Modani on the outlook of the poultry industry, “ICRA expects domestic broiler meat demand to continue to grow at the rate of
7%8% (in volume terms) and table egg demand to grow at 5%6% in medium to long term. Broiler volume growth is expected to remain
at 7%8% in medium to long term given favourable socioeconomic factors like low per capita consumption currently at Rs 4 kg per
annum, religious preference for chicken meat, yearround easy availability across country, increasing disposable income, changing food
habits, increasing health awareness, and poultry being one of the cheapest source of protein. However, industry’s transition from a
predominantly live bird/wet market to a chilled/frozen market would be crucial for increasing value addition as well as to increase
presence in international trade where India currently has negligible presence.”
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https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/icra-predicts-decent-growth-for-domestic-poultry-industry/printarticle/63613459.cms 2/3