Professional Documents
Culture Documents
and Synapses
James J. Heckman
University of Chicago
The Argument
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and
Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and
Sensitive
Periods
Circuits
Summary
The Argument
Argument
Many major economic and social problems
Polarization
Skills
such as crime, teenage pregnancy, dropping
Abilities and out of high school and adverse health
Outcomes
conditions can be traced to low levels of skill
Explanations
Critical and
and ability in society.
Sensitive
Periods
Circuits
Summary
The Argument
Argument
Need to recognize the multiplicity of abilities.
Polarization
Skills
Critical and
through IQ and achievement tests.
Sensitive
Periods
Argument
Cognitive abilities are important determinants
Polarization
Skills
of socioeconomic success.
Abilities and
Outcomes
So are socioemotional skills, physical
Explanations
Critical and
and mental health, perseverance,
Sensitive
Periods
attention, motivation, and self confidence.
Circuits
Argument
Ability gaps — cognitive and noncognitive—
Polarization
Skills
between the advantaged and disadvantaged
Abilities and open up early in the lives of children.
Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and
Family environments of young children are
Sensitive
Periods
major predictors of cognitive and socioemotional
Circuits abilities, as well as crime, health and obesity.
Summary
Argument
Experimental evidence on the effectiveness
Polarization
Skills
of early interventions in disadvantaged families
Abilities and is consistent in a positive way with a large
Outcomes
body of non-experimental evidence that adverse
Explanations
Critical and
family environments, especially adverse
Sensitive
Periods
parenting, substantially impair child outcomes.
Circuits
Argument
Socioemotional abilities are malleable,
Polarization
Skills
and neglected in most cognitively oriented
Abilities and intervention studies.
Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and
Early interventions promote schooling, reduce
Sensitive
Periods
crime, foster workforce productivity and reduce
Circuits teenage pregnancy.
Summary
Argument
As programs are currently configured, early
Polarization
Skills
interventions have much higher economic
Abilities and returns than later interventions focused on
Outcomes
promoting cognitive factors such as reduced
Explanations
Critical and
pupil-teacher ratios, public job training, convict
Sensitive
Periods
rehabilitation programs, adult literacy programs,
Circuits tuition subsidies or expenditure on police.
Summary
The Argument
Argument
Life cycle skill formation is dynamic in nature.
Polarization
Skills
Skill begets skill; motivation begets motivation.
Abilities and If a child is not motivated and stimulated
Outcomes
to learn and engage early on in life, the more
Explanations
Critical and
likely it is that when the child becomes
Sensitive
Periods
an adult, it will fail in social and economic life.
Circuits
Argument
A major refocus of policy is required to
Polarization
Skills
understand the life cycle of skill and health
Abilities and formation and the importance of the early
Outcomes
years in creating inequality in America,
Explanations
Critical and
and in producing skills for the workforce.
Sensitive
Periods
Circuits
Summary
Consider One
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Aspect of
Abilities and
Outcomes
Explanations
Increasing
Critical and
Sensitive
Periods
Circuits
Polarization in
Summary
American Society
Consider One Aspect of Increasing
Polarization in American Society
Argument
Schooling attainment rates.
Polarization
Skills
Explanations
Critical and
More youth going to college.
Sensitive
Periods
Argument 30%
Polarization
26
Skills
Abilities and
22
Outcomes
Explanations
18
Critical and
Sensitive
14
Periods
Circuits
10
Summary
Skills
in educational attainment diminishes and turns
Abilities and negative for more recent cohorts of Americans.
Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and
The decline in high school graduation rates
Sensitive
Periods
since 1970 (for cohorts born after 1950) has
Circuits flattened college attendance and completion
Summary rates as well as growth in the skill level of the
U.S. workforce.
Consider One Aspect of Increasing
Polarization in American Society
Argument
Annual growth in labor productivity is slowed
Polarization
Skills
by 0.17 to 0.35 percent per year by the trends
Abilities and that reduce the growth of labor force quality.
Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and
America will produce less than half of the
Sensitive
Periods
growth in college graduates than it produced in
Circuits the previous 20 years despite the growth in the
Summary size of the total population.
Circuits *Assumes that subsequent cohorts have same education at age 25 as the cohort age 25 in 2000.
Summary
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and 30
Outcomes
Explanations
Proportion
Critical and 20
Sensitive
Periods
Circuits
10
Summary
Males
Females
Note: The scale scores were grouped into five levels of increasing difficulty, with Level 1 representing functional illiteracy. Levels 4 and 5
were combined. The sample is restricted to adults who are between 16 and 65 years of age at the time of the survey (1994 for the U.S.
and Germany, 1996 for the U.K., and 1994 –1995 for Sweden). Standard errors are calculated using the methodology described in the
International Adult Literacy Survey Microdata User's Guide (2002).
Consider One Aspect of Increasing
Polarization in American Society
Argument
What forces produce these low levels
Polarization
Skills
and adverse trends?
Abilities and
Outcomes
Are the public schools mainly responsible?
Explanations
Critical and
Sensitive
Periods
Can we look to school reform to fix
Circuits the problem?
Summary
Skills
for the ability of a child at the age college
Abilities and decisions are made, tuition costs
Outcomes
and schooling quality explain a trivial
Explanations
Critical and
fraction of the gaps in educational attainment
Sensitive
Periods
by socioeconomic status.
Circuits
Summary
The Importance
Argument
Polarization
Skills
of Cognitive
Abilities and
Outcomes
Explanations
and Noncognitive
Critical and
Sensitive
Periods
Circuits
Summary
Skills
The Importance of Cognitive
and Noncognitive Skills
Argument
An emerging body of evidence shows that,
Polarization
Skills
as is intuitively obvious and commonsensical,
Abilities and much more than smarts are required.
Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and
– Motivation
Sensitive
Periods
– Sociability; ability to work with others
Circuits – Attention
Summary – Self Regulation
– Self Esteem
– Time Preference
– Health and Mental Health
The Importance of Cognitive
and Noncognitive Skills
Argument
The GED program is a second chance program
Polarization
Skills
given to secondary school dropouts.
Abilities and
Outcomes
Participation in the GED program is growing.
Explanations
Critical and
Currently 20% of U.S. high school “graduates”
Sensitive
Periods
are dropouts who exam certify.
Circuits
Summary
The Importance of Cognitive
and Noncognitive Skills
Argument
GEDs are required to pass a test of
Polarization
Skills
cognitive abilities.
Abilities and
Outcomes
Level relatively low — at the grade 8
Explanations
Critical and
to grade 10 level.
Sensitive
Periods
Polarization
30
Skills
Abilities and 25
Outcomes
Explanations 20
Critical and
Sensitive 15
Periods
Circuits 10
Summary
5
-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Polarization
35
Skills
Abilities and 30
Outcomes
25
Explanations
Critical and 20
Sensitive
Periods 15
Circuits
10
Summary
5
-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Polarization
Skills
and Outcomes
Abilities and
Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and
Sensitive
Periods
Circuits
Summary
Ever Been in Jail by Age 30, By Ability (Males)
Argument .15
Polarization
Skills
Outcomes
Probability
Explanations
Circuits
.00
Summary
0 – 20 21 – 40 41 – 60 61 – 80 81 – 100
Percentile
Cognitive
Noncognitive
Note: This figure plots the probability of a given behavior associated with moving up in one ability distribution for someone after
integrating out the other distribution. For example, the lines with markers show the effect of increasing noncognitive ability after
integrating the cognitive ability.
Argument .10
Polarization
Skills .08
Abilities and
Outcomes
Probability
.06
Explanations
Critical and
Sensitive .04
Periods
Circuits
.02
Summary
0 – 20 21 – 40 41 – 60 61 – 80 81 – 100
Percentile
Cognitive
Noncognitive
Note: This figure plots the probability of a given behavior associated with moving up in one ability distribution for someone after
integrating out the other distribution. For example, the lines with markers show the effect of increasing noncognitive ability after
integrating the cognitive ability.
Polarization
Probability and Confidence Interval (2.5 – 97.5%)
Skills
0.8
Abilities and
Outcomes
0.6
Explanations
Critical and
Sensitive
0.4
Periods
Circuits
0.2
Summary
0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Decile
Notes: The data are simulated from the estimates of the model and our NLSY79 sample. We use the standard convention that higher
deciles are associated with higher values of the variable. The confidence intervals are computed using bootstrapping (200 draws).
Mean Log Wages by Age 30 (Males)
Polarization
Log Wages and Confidence Interval (2.75 – 97.5%)
Skills 2.5
Abilities and
Outcomes 2.0
Explanations
Sensitive
Periods
1.0
Circuits
Summary 0.5
0.0
2 4 6 8 10 2 4 6 8 10
Decile
Notes: The data are simulated from the estimates of the model and our NLSY79 sample. We use the standard convention that higher
deciles are associated with higher values of the variable. The confidence intervals are computed using bootstrapping (50 draws).
Abilities and Outcomes
Argument
Controlling for ability measured at age 18,
Polarization
Skills
minorities are more likely to attend college
Abilities and than others despite their lower family incomes
Outcomes
(Cameron and Heckman, 2001).
Explanations
Critical and
Sensitive
Periods
Circuits
Summary
Can ability differences explain racial-ethnic
schooling gaps?
Argument
High School Completion Gap
Polarization
Circuits
Summary
Argument
College Entry Probabilities Given High School Completion
Polarization
Circuits
Summary
Argument
Gaps in the abilities that play such an important
Polarization
Skills
role in determining diverse adult labor
Abilities and market and health outcomes open up early
Outcomes
across income groups.
Explanations
Critical and
Sensitive
Periods
Circuits
Summary
Trend in Mean Cognitive Score by
Maternal Education
Argument 1.5
Polarization
Skills 1.0
Mean Cognitive Score
Abilities and
Outcomes
0.5
Explanations
Critical and
Sensitive 0.0
Periods
Circuits
-0.5
Summary
3 5 8 18
Age in Years
College Graduate
Some College Education
High School Graduate
Less than High School
Each score standardized within observed sample. Using all observations and assuming data missing at random.
Argument 65
Polarization
60
Skills
Score Percentile
Abilities and 55
Outcomes
50
Explanations
Critical and 45
Sensitive
Periods 40
Circuits
35
Summary
6 Yrs 8 Yrs 10 Yrs 12 Yrs
Age
Argument 65
Polarization
60
Skills
Score Percentile
Abilities and 55
Outcomes
50
Explanations
Critical and 45
Sensitive
Periods 40
Circuits
35
Summary 6 Yrs 8 Yrs 10 Yrs 12 Yrs
Age
*Residualized on maternal education, maternal AFQT (corrected for the effect of schooling) and broken home at each age.
Figure D3a. Average Percentile Rank on
Anti-Social Behavior Score, by Income Quartile
Argument 55
Polarization
50
Skills
45
Score Percentile
Abilities and
Outcomes 40
Explanations 35
Critical and
30
Sensitive
Periods
25
Circuits
20
Summary
4 Yrs 6 Yrs 8 Yrs 10 Yrs 12 Yrs
Age
Argument 60
Polarization
55
Skills
50
Abilities and
Outcomes 45
Score Percentile
Explanations 40
Critical and
35
Sensitive
Periods
30
Circuits
25
Summary
20
*Residualized on maternal education, maternal AFQT (corrected for the effect of schooling) and broken home at each age.
Abilities and Outcomes
Argument
Gaps also emerge in health. These appear
Polarization
Skills
to diverge with age, at least in the U.S.
Abilities and
Outcomes
Similar gaps by age in the U.S., Canada,
Explanations
Critical and
and United Kingdom
Sensitive
Periods
Circuits
Summary
Health and Income For Children and Adults, U.S.
National Health Interview Survey 1986 – 1995*
Argument 2.50
Polarization
2.25
Skills
Explanations 1.75
Critical and
Sensitive 1.50
Periods
Circuits 1.25
Summary
1.00
8 9 10 11
LN (Family Income)
Ages 0 – 3
Ages 4 – 8
Ages 9 – 12
Ages 13 – 17
* From Case, A., Lubotsky, D. & Paxson, C. (2002), American Economic Review, Vol.
92, 1308 – 1334.
Abilities and Outcomes
Argument
Gaps in cognitive and noncognitive skills
Polarization
Skills
of children have counterparts in gaps in family
Abilities and investments and environments.
Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and
Sensitive
Periods
Circuits
Summary
Cognitive Stimulation: Age 0 – 2,
White, by Family Type
Polarization
0.04
Skills
Abilities and
0.03
Outcomes
Density
Explanations 0.02
Critical and
Sensitive 0.01
Periods
Circuits 0.00
Single Mom
Broken
Intact
Polarization
0.05
Skills
Abilities and
0.04
Outcomes
Density
Explanations 0.03
Critical and
Sensitive 0.02
Periods
Circuits 0.01
Summary
0.00
Single Mom
Broken
Intact
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and
Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and
Sensitive
Periods
Circuits
Summary
Family
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Environments
Abilities and
Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and
Sensitive
Periods
Circuits
Summary
Percent of Children Under 18 Living with
One Parent, By Marital Status of Single Parent
Argument 35%
Polarization
Percentage of Children Under 18 in Single Parent Families
30
Skills
Abilities and 25
Outcomes
Explanations 20
Critical and
Sensitive 15
Periods
Circuits 10
Summary
5
1968 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
Never Married
Widowed
Married, Spouse Absent
Divorced
Trends in Single Motherhood, 1960 to 2000
Argument 50%
Polarization
Skills 40
Abilities and
Outcomes 30
Percentage
Explanations
Critical and 20
Sensitive
Periods
10
Circuits
Summary 0
Low Education
Middle Education
High Education
Note: Single motherhood is defined as not being married or not living with a spouse.
Argument 800
Polarization
Skills
600
Vocabulary Size (Words)
Abilities and
Outcomes
Explanations 400
Critical and
Sensitive
Periods 200
Circuits
Summary 0
12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
Age in Months
Polarization
Skills
Environment
Abilities and
Outcomes
Explanations
Interactions
Critical and
Sensitive
Periods
Circuits
Summary
Methylation Patterns in Young and Old Twins
Argument
3-year-old twins 50-year-old twins
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and
Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and
Sensitive
Periods
Circuits
Summary
Polarization
Skills
How Genes
Abilities and
Outcomes
Explanations
are Triggered
Critical and
Sensitive
Periods
Circuits
by Environments
Summary
Childhood Maltreatment
Age 3 –11 in Dunedin Cohort
Explanations
Sexual Abuse (12%)
Critical and
Sensitive
Periods
None 1 type ≥2
Circuits
Summary
No Probable Definite
Argument 100%
Polarization
Abilities and
% Conduct Disorder
Outcomes 60
Explanations
Critical and 40
Sensitive
Periods
20
Circuits
Summary 0
Polarization
Skills
Sensitive Periods
Abilities and
Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and
Sensitive
Periods
Circuits
Summary
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Argument
Sensitive and critical periods have been
Polarization
Skills
documented extensively for:
Abilities and
Outcomes
– Binocular vision in the cortex of mammals,
Explanations
Critical and
– Filial imprinting in the forebrain of ducks
Sensitive
Periods
and chickens,
Circuits – Language acquisition in humans
Summary (Newport, 2002)
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Argument
Sensitive and critical periods have been
Polarization
Skills
documented extensively for (continued):
Abilities and
Outcomes
– Early vitamin/nutrient deficiencies can
Explanations
Critical and
have substantial lasting negative effects
Sensitive
Periods
on human development.
Circuits – E.g., Iron; Vitamin A; Iodine
Summary – Blindness, Impaired IQ, etc.
– Difficult to remediate at later ages
Critical and Sensitive Periods
Argument
Enriched Early Environments
Polarization
Skills
Compensate In Part For the Risks Arising
Abilities and from Disadvantaged Environments
Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and
– Main mechanism of intervention arises from
Sensitive
Periods
noncognitive or personality investments.
Circuits
Summary
High/Scope
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Perry Preschool
Abilities and
Outcomes
Explanations
Program
Critical and
Sensitive
Periods
Circuits
Summary
High/Scope Perry
Preschool Program
Argument
The Perry preschool program enriched the
Polarization
Skills
lives of low income black children with initial
Abilities and IQs below 85 at age 3.
Outcomes
– 2.5 hours per day
Explanations
Critical and
– 5 days per week
Sensitive
Periods
– 2 years during each school year
Circuits (mid-October to May)
Summary – Home visits
– Program stops after two years
Perry Preschool Program: IQ, By Age
and Treatment Group
Argument 100
Polarization
Skills 95
Abilities and
Outcomes 90
Explanations
IQ
Critical and 85
Sensitive
Periods
80
Circuits
Summary 75
Entry 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Age
Treatment Group
Control Group
Source: Perry Preschool Program. IQ measured on the Stanford Binet Intelligence Scale
(Terman & Merrill, 1960). Test was administered at program entry and each of the ages indicated.
High/Scope Perry
Preschool Program
Argument
Yet has a statistically significant rate of return
Polarization
Skills
of around 7 – 10% per annum — for both boys
Abilities and and girls — above the post World War II stock
Outcomes
market returns to equity in U.S. labor market
Explanations
Critical and
estimated to be 5.8%.
Sensitive
Periods
Circuits
Summary
Perry Age 14 Total CAT Scores,
by Treatment Group
Polarization
Skills
30
Abilities and
Outcomes
Number of Subjects
Explanations
Critical and 20
Sensitive
Periods
Circuits 10
Summary
0 20 40 60 80 100% 0 20 40 60 80 100%
Polarization
Skills
Remediation is
Abilities and
Outcomes
Explanations
Circuits
Ineffective
Summary
Later Remediation is Costly
and Often Ineffective
Argument
As currently implemented, most adolescent
Polarization
Skills
remediation efforts, especially those
Abilities and targeted toward raising adolescent cognitive
Outcomes
abilities targeted toward the disadvantaged
Explanations
Critical and
have low returns.
Sensitive
Periods
Circuits
Summary
Later Remediation is Costly
and Often Ineffective
Argument
For example:
Polarization
Skills
– Active labor market programs
Abilities and – Class size reductions (reducing class size
Outcomes
by five pupils per classroom)
Explanations
Critical and
– Adult literacy programs
Sensitive
Periods
– Public job training programs
Circuits – Tuition reduction policy
Summary
Circuits
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and
Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and
Sensitive
Periods
Circuits
Summary
Circuits
Argument
Data from non-controlled assessments
Polarization
Skills
of Head Start and the Chicago
Abilities and Child-Parent Centers programs suggest
Outcomes
similar conclusions.
Explanations
Critical and
Sensitive
Periods
Circuits
Summary
The Abecedarian
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Program
Abilities and
Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and
Sensitive
Periods
Circuits
Summary
The Abecedarian Program
Argument
Intervening at an early enough age can actually
Polarization
Skills
raise the IQ of the participants.
Abilities and
Outcomes
In the more intensive, earlier starting
Explanations
Critical and
Abecedarian program, IQ gains were found.
Sensitive
Periods
Circuits
Summary
Abecedarian Program: IQ, by Age
and Treatment Group
Argument 100
Polarization
Skills 95
Abilities and
Outcomes 90
Explanations
IQ
Critical and 85
Sensitive
Periods
80
Circuits
Summary 75
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Age
Treatment Group
Control Group
Argument
Several observations about the evidence from
Polarization
Skills
the available intervention studies are relevant.
Abilities and
Outcomes
First, skills beget skills.
Explanations
Critical and
Sensitive
Periods
All capabilities are built on a foundation
Circuits of capacities that are developed earlier.
Summary
The Abecedarian Program
Argument
This principle stems from two characteristics
Polarization
Skills
that are intrinsic to the nature of learning:
Abilities and – Early learning confers value on acquired
Outcomes
skills, which leads to self-reinforcing
Explanations
Critical and
motivation to learn more,
Sensitive
Periods
and
Circuits – Early mastery of a range of cognitive, social,
Summary and emotional competencies makes learning
at later ages more efficient and therefore
easier and more likely to continue.
The Abecedarian Program
Argument
Second, early intervention lowers the cost of
Polarization
Skills
later investment.
Abilities and
Outcomes
Public job training programs, adult literacy
Explanations
Critical and
services, prisoner rehabilitation programs,
Sensitive
Periods
and education programs for disadvantaged
Circuits adults at current levels of expenditure produce
Summary low economic returns.
Figure 19: Returns to a Unit Dollar Invested
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and
Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and
Sensitive
Periods
Circuits
Summary
Summary
Argument
Polarization
Skills
Abilities and
Outcomes
Explanations
Critical and
Sensitive
Periods
Circuits
Summary
Summary
Argument
Skills matter.
Polarization
Skills
Critical and
this problem.
Sensitive
Periods
Argument
More than smarts is required for success.
Polarization
Skills
Explanations
Critical and
Soft skills have been documented to
Sensitive
Periods
be “hard”— we can measure them, and they
Circuits are predictive.
Summary
Argument
Schools and tuition do not matter as
Polarization
Skills
much as is often thought.
Abilities and
Outcomes
Late remediation not very effective.
Explanations
Critical and
Sensitive
Periods
Remediation can work, but is costly.
Circuits