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The science of hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico: A review

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 ARTICLE IN PRESS
STOTEN-11693; No of Pages 14
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Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Science of the Total Environment

j o u r n a l h o m e p a g e : w w w. e l s ev i e r. c o m / l o c a t e / s c i t o t e n v

Review

The science of hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico: A review

T.S. Bianchi a,⁎, S.F. DiMarco a, J.H. Cowan Jr. b, R.D. Hetland a, P. Chapman a, J.W. Day b, M.A. Allison c
a
Department of Oceanography, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 77843-3146, USA
b
Dept. of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences Louisiana State University Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA
c
Institute for Geophysics, University of Texas, Austin, Texas 78758-4445, USA

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: The Mississippi River is one of the world's 10 largest rivers, with average freshwater discharge into the
Received 25 August 2009 northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) of 380 km3 year− 1. In the northern GOM, anthropogenic nitrogen is
Received in revised form 19 November 2009 primarily derived from agricultural fertilizer and delivered via the Mississippi River. The general consensus is
Accepted 21 November 2009
that hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico is caused primarily by algal production stimulated by excess
Available online xxxx
nitrogen delivered from the Mississippi–Atchafalaya River Basin and seasonal vertical stratification of
Keywords:
incoming stream flow and Gulf waters, which restricts replenishment of oxygen from the atmosphere.
Hypoxia In this paper, we review the controversial aspects of the largely nutrient-centric view of the hypoxic region,
Gulf of Mexico and introduce the role of non-riverine organic matter inputs as other oxygen-consuming mechanisms.
Management policy Similarly, we discuss non-nutrient physically-controlled impacts of freshwater stratification as an alternative
mechanism for controlling in part, the seasonality of hypoxia. We then explore why hypoxia in this dynamic
river-dominated margin (RiOMar) is not comparable to many of the other traditional estuarine systems (e.g.,
Chesapeake Bay, Baltic Sea, and Long Island Sound). The presence of mobile muds and the proximity of the
Mississippi Canyon are discussed as possible reasons for the amelioration of hypoxia (e.g., healthy fisheries)
in this region. The most recent prediction of hypoxia area for 2009, using the current nutrient-centric
models, failed due to the limited scope of these simple models and the complexity of this system. Predictive
models should not be the main driver for management decisions. We postulate that a better management
plan for this region can only be reached through a more comprehensive understanding of this RiOMar
system—not just more information on river fluxes (e.g., nutrients) and coastal hypoxia monitoring programs.
© 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Contents

1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0
2. The role of nutrients and water column stratification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0
3. Spatially important “hot spots”of hypoxia in a two-plume system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0
4. Sediment organic carbon sources and memory effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0
5. Approaches in modeling hypoxia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0
6. The paradox of hypoxia and ecosystems effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0
7. Coastal bays and wetlands, diversions, and hurricanes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0
8. Climate change and hypoxia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0
9. Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0

1. Introduction
Increases in the occurrence of hypoxia, when dissolved oxygen (DO)
is b2 mg L− 1 (1.4 mL L− 1 = ∼63 μmol O2 dm− 3) in coastal waters have
made this environmental problem a global issue (Diaz and Rosenberg,
⁎ Corresponding author.
E-mail address: tbianchi@tamu.edu (T.S. Bianchi).
2008). The expansion of hypoxic zones around the world is largely
associated with eutrophication (Conley et al., 2009), where nutrient
inputs to coastal waters result in excess primary production, followed by
depletion of oxygen in waters, due to the high rates of microbial
respiration (Bianchi, 2007, and references therein). In particular, there
has been a significant debate in the literature on the processes that
control spatial and temporal variability of hypoxia in bottom waters of
the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM), purported to be the largest in the
western hemisphere (Rabalais et al., 2002a,b, 2007). Despite 25 years of

0048-9697/$ – see front matter © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.11.047

Please cite this article as: Bianchi TS, et al, The science of hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico: A review, Sci Total Environ (2010),
doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.11.047
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
2 T.S. Bianchi et al. / Science of the Total Environment xxx (2010) xxx–xxx
consistent monitoring there remains considerable uncertainty in the
processes that control hypoxia here and their relative importance (Krug,
2007; Krug and Merrifield, 2007; Dagg et al., 2007; Bianchi et al., 2008;
Hetland and DiMarco, 2008, Boesch et al., 2009). In this review, we will
compare and contrast existing data on this hypoxic zone in terms of: 1)
the spatial and temporal effects of a two-plume system (e.g., Atchafalaya
River Plume [ARP] and Mississippi River Plume [MRP]) on the hypoxic
region; and 2) the processes that are reinforcing and weakening
hypoxia.
2. The role of nutrients and water column stratification
Similar to other eutrophic systems around the world (see review
by Conley et al., 2009), excess nutrients play a significant, albeit not
exclusive, role in “fueling” hypoxia in the northern GOM—particularly
in the near-field regions of the Atchafalaya River Plume (ARP) and
Mississippi River Plume (MRP) (SAB, 2008). These nutrients are
derived from several sources, such as runoff from arable farms
(mostly corn and soybean) in the Midwest of the USA, animal feedlots,
sewage treatment plants and industrial sources (Mitsch et al., 2001;
Science Advisory Board [SAB], 2008); although the sources of nitrogen
(N) and phosphorous (P) differ (Alexander et al., 2008). Recent work
suggests that the mean annual flux is presently about 1.2 million
metric tons of N and 0.15 million metric tons of P (Aulenbach et al.,
2007), of which about 22% (for N) and 34% (for P) are from point
sources (MART, 2006; SAB, 2008). These total fluxes translate into
concentrations of between about 40 and 150 µmol L− 1 for dissolved
inorganic nitrogen (DIN) (b200 µmol L− 1 for total nitrogen), and
about 1 to 3 µmol L− 1for orthophosphate (b5–6 µmol L− 1 for total P)
by the time the water reaches Baton Rouge, LA, depending on the time
of year and the river flow (Turner and Rabalais, 2004; Turner et al.,
2007). Additionally, there is a flux of about 1.7 million metric tons of
silicate (Si), equivalent to 50 to 130 µmol L− 1 in concentration
(Turner et al., 2007). Fluxes of total N and Si appear to have decreased
from maxima in about 1990 and 1950 respectively, but total
phosphorus has apparently remained steady (Turner et al., 2007;
SAB, 2008). Understanding how these inputs of nutrients differ as
they enter the ARP and the MRP is critical in understanding the
dynamics of eutrophication and hypoxia and how they interface with
two dominant plumes that have very different stratification properties.
The standard paradigm for the onset of hypoxia depends on the
combination of high phytoplankton growth in late spring, fueled by
the highest flux of nutrients, and strong local stratification (Brunt–
Vaisala frequency N40 h− 1; Belabbassi, 2006; Kiselkova, 2008). This
high productivity increases the flux of organic material to lower in the
water column through sinking cells and zooplankton fecal pellets. The
strength of the pycnocline then prevents oxygen from diffusing down
from the upper mixed layer so that respiration causes oxygen
depletion at the bottom (Rabalais et al., 1999, 2002b). These
conditions persist until fall, when a combination of declining riverine
input and breakdown of stratification with the onset of frontal storms
takes place. The thickness of the low oxygen layer is typically around
10 m, with the highest percentage of occurrences less than 1 m thick,
and exponentially decreasing frequency of occurrence with increasing
thickness (based on 2300 observations between 1998 and 2008).
River-dominated margins (RiOMar) are highly dynamic in the
available light and suspended particle regimes that occur across/
along their respective continental shelves (Dagg et al., 2004; McKee
et al., 2004; Bianchi and Allison, 2009). Rowe and Chapman (2002)
suggested an alternative hypothesis which was structured around
three distinct zones of hypoxia, each with different controls, the size
of which will change depending on winds, currents and river flow.
Near to the river mouths, the high sediment load reduces light levels
so that phytoplankton production is reduced, but the rapid sedimen-
tation of allochthonous material, including particulate carbon, causes
hypoxia through anaerobic reactions that result in the production of
Please cite this article as: Bianchi TS, et al, The science of hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico: A review, Sci Total Environ (2010),
doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.11.047
sulfides, ammonia, and reduced iron and manganese species (Morse
and Rowe, 1999). Further offshore, light levels increase because of the
decreased turbidity, and the standard paradigm applies, but as one
moves even more distal from the river mouths the nutrient load in the
surface layer decreases almost to zero. Hypoxia in this furthest region
is controlled mainly by the continued strong stratification, which
regulates ventilation of the water column. Thus, the relative
importance of the different controls changes from east to west, with
stratification (river flow) controlling what happens west of the
Atchafalaya. Other work has suggested that this new conceptual
model ignores the role of the Louisiana Coastal Current (LCC), which
flows westward along the coast and is believed to deliver bottom
water with high nutrient concentrations to fuel continued phyto-
plankton growth (Boesch, 2003). However, as was shown by
Cochrane and Kelly (1986), Cho et al. (1998), and Nowlin et al.
(2005), the climatology of the region is such that the LCC is essentially
absent during the summer months when hypoxia develops, apart
from short (weather-band) intervals when the local wind system is
easterly. Fine-scale modeling (Hetland and DiMarco, 2008; Wang and
Justic, 2009) also agrees with the climatology of the region.
While nitrate has traditionally been regarded as the most important
nutrient that controls phytoplankton growth in the region, given its
rapid increase in flux since 1950 (Turner and Rabalais, 1991, 1994;
Goolsby et al., 1999), recent data suggest that phosphate can be limiting
inshore near the river plume, particularly at the end of the spring flood
when the N:P ratio in surface water is very high (Ammerman and
Sylvan, 2004; Sylvan et al., 2006). However, when oxygen concentra-
tions in bottom waters decrease, phosphate can be released rapidly
from the sediment (Sutula et al., 2004; Howarth and Marino, 2006). If
this can be mixed upward to the pycnocline it can fuel phytoplankton
production in areas that would otherwise be considered P-limited.
Thus, phosphorus flux from sediments, which has been shown to be
important (Sutula et al., 2004) on the Louisiana shelf, rather than from
the river, may have a significant role in maintaining primary production
—particularly in shallow regions where benthic–pelagic coupling is
greater. Thus, a better understanding the changing roles of P and N as
well as Si dynamics are needed throughout all reaches of the hypoxic
zone, not just within the plume regions, to help determine the
differential roles autochthonous and allocthonous organic carbon
sources for bacterial metabolism in the hypoxic zone.
An increase in water column stability inhibits the downward
diffusion of oxygen through the pycnocline (the layer where density
change with depth is at a maximum; Wiseman et al., 1974, 1997;
Rabalais et al., 1999). This leads to respiration below the pycnocline
exceeding photosynthesis or other source processes, so that the
oxygen concentration in the bottom layer becomes severely depleted.
On the Texas–Louisiana shelf, the physical drivers have widely varying
temporal and spatial scales. The basic description of the general
circulation of this shelf has been the subject of several investigations
(Cochrane and Kelly, 1986; Cho et al., 1996; Nowlin et al., 1998, 2005).
This basic pattern of seasonal alternating downcoast and upcoast
coastal currents is thought to be robust but shows interannual
variability. Researchers have also looked at the variability of physical
and hydrographic properties on interannual time scales (Li et al.,
1996), as well as processes at much shorter (i.e., inertial and tidal)
time scales (Chen et al., 1996; DiMarco and Reid, 1998; DiMarco et al.,
2000; Zhang et al., 2009, 2010). The long-term mean flow over the
Texas–Louisiana Shelf suggests the shelf is divided into two regimes at
roughly the 50 m isobath (Nowlin et al., 2005). In spite of high
temporal current variability at most locations on the shelf, the
standard errors of the estimates of the long-term (∼ 30 month) means
are such that qualitative direction is not in question for many of the
locations. This suggests that the ultimate fate of freshwater from the
MR and AR sources is downstream toward Texas. However, as will be
shown, many processes occurring at short time scales of days and
weeks can interrupt and even reverse the inner shelf flow. Both
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satellite observations (Salisbury et al., 2004) and numerical physical
circulation models (Morey et al., 2003, Hetland and DiMarco, 2008;
Wang and Justic, 2009) have shown that the circulation patterns in
Louisiana Bight (just west of the MR Delta) and the region west of
Terrebonne Bay and seaward of the AR respond very differently to
wind and freshwater forcing, due to the breadth of the shelf and
location of the fresh water inputs. The general effect of the seasonal
cycle of current variability promotes the development of summer
hypoxia by sustaining multiple processes that increase stability while
promoting ventilation of bottom waters in non-summer months
through processes that generally reduce stability.
Current patterns and seasonal changes in winds exert important
controlling forces on mixing dynamics that may or may not be
favorable in the formation of hypoxia events on the Louisiana shelf. In
the Louisiana Bight region west of the Southwest Pass delta and east of
Mississippi Canyon, there exists a quasi-permanent anti-cyclonic
gyre, first described by Ichiye (1960), which is formed by the
rotational modification of the MRP as it exits Southwest Pass.
Wiseman et al. (1982) described internal motions in the Bight, and
discussed the salinity and temperature variability in these waters.
Eastward winds associated with frontal passages frequently disrupt
the gyre from autumn through spring, dispersing river water across
and off the shelf (DiMego et al., 1976; Nowlin et al., 1998; Walker et
al., 2005). The wind stress decreases steadily from winter to spring
and spring to summer, however (Walker and Rabalais, 2006), leading
normally to less mixing and a situation that favors the development of
hypoxia. Even in summer, however, local wind forcing and the
propagation of swell fields produced by remote storms can cause
mixing over the Texas-Louisiana Shelf. Storm wave breaking entrains
air into the surface and sub-surface layers, thereby reducing both
stratification and hypoxia. During Hurricane Andrew in August 1992,
significant wave heights exceeded 9 m at a 16 m deep station on the
eastern Texas-Louisiana Shelf south of Terrebonne Bay (DiMarco et al.,
1995, 2001). Salinity and temperature observations during the
hurricane indicate that the water column was fully mixed to a
depth of 60 m during the storm. Although there were no measure-
ments of dissolved oxygen immediately after the storm, hypoxic
conditions on the eastern Texas-Louisiana Shelf were presumably
eliminated. Similarly, in May 2005, hypoxia was found in the near
bottom water of the eastern Texas-Louisiana Shelf from the
Southwest Pass delta region to south of Cameron, LA (Fig. 1). The
hypoxia presumably lasted until early July 2005, when Hurricane
Cindy passed over the eastern part of the shelf making landfall near
Fourchon, LA. Less than a week later Hurricane Dennis passed through
the eastern GOM, making landfall on the Florida panhandle near
Pascagoula and with the outer storm bands reaching the eastern
Texas-Louisiana Shelf. After the passage of these two hurricanes, no
hypoxia was found east of 92.5°W. However, a NOAA-NMFS SEAMAP

Fig. 1. Near-bottom (0.5–1.0 m above bottom) dissolved oxygen concentrations during May (top panel) and July (bottom panel) 2005. Hurricanes Cindy and Dennis impacted the
northern Gulf of Mexico 3–9 July. Note: hypoxic conditions were not found between 91°W and 92°W during the July cruise, presumably because of strong mixing conditions during
the storms that weakened the pycnocline. Dots are station locations.
From DiMarco et al., in press.

Please cite this article as: Bianchi TS, et al, The science of hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico: A review, Sci Total Environ (2010),
doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.11.047
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fisheries cruise and the annual cruise of Rabalais showed low
dissolved oxygen concentrations returning to the eastern shelf by
month's end (Rabalais et al., 2007).
Surface gravity waves of the Texas-Louisiana Shelf result from local
wind forcing and the propagation of swell wave fields produced by
remotely located storms. Surface waves can influence the formation,
duration, and breakup of hypoxia on the Texas-Louisiana Shelf by
reducing stratification through wave breaking and mixing and by
entraining air into the surface and sub-surface layers. Belabbassi
(2006) and Kiselkova (2008) have shown the complex relationship
between vertical stability, also known as the Brunt-Vaisala frequency,
and near-bottom dissolved oxygen concentration. In general, higher
stability leads to less ventilation and therefore lower near-bottom
oxygen. This relationship however is significantly altered by time-
varying processes that can be related to baroclinic instability, wind
forcing, bathymetric steering, and seasonality of the pycnocline
(Kieselkova, 2008). However, the relationship between stability
frequency and near bottom dissolved oxygen concentration is
seasonal. This is most apparent when looking at the relationship of
apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) (Fig. 2), 100% saturation concen-
tration minus observed oxygen concentration, versus stability
frequency. AOU allows temperature effects to be removed from the
observations and quantifies the amount of oxygen depletion in the
water. In winter, AOU and stability are generally low indicating
relative less stability and less oxygen depleted water. In spring,
atmospheric warming and freshwater discharge increase, intensifying
stratification leading to greater oxygen depletion. In summer,
stratification is strongest and oxygen depletion is greatest; fall
conditions resemble spring.
3. Spatially important “hot spots”of hypoxia in a two-plume system
Satellite observations show that the ARP and MRP are distinct and
separated in space many times throughout the year (Walker, 1996;
Fig. 2. Log10-linear plot of maximum water column stability frequency, N, versus near-bottom apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) showing seasonal variability of relationship; color
bar for symbols indicates bottom salinity values.
Please cite this article as: Bianchi TS, et al, The science of hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico: A review, Sci Total Environ (2010),
doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.11.047
Walker et al., 2006; Walker et al., 2006; Salisbury et al., 2004). Oey
(1995), in a 3-D circulation numerical modeling study of the northern
GOM using the Princeton Ocean Model, quantified the relative forcing
of wind, buoyancy from the Mississippi and Atchafalaya River
discharge, and offshore circulation features. Estimates of the spatial
scales over the continental shelves east and west of the delta are given
by Li et al. (1996). Cross-shelf scales over the western Texas–Louisiana
shelf are about 15 km but are nearer 20 km over the eastern and
central shelf. The central and eastern Texas–Louisiana shelf region is
broad with gradual bathymetric gradients similar to the West Florida
Shelf area. The central Texas Shelf has steeper topography. There is
evidence from recent cruises from the spring and summers of 2004
and 2009 that the spatial and temporal scales of biogeochemical
processes on the Texas–Louisiana Shelf in the hypoxic zone are of the
same spatial and temporal order as the physical processes.
For example, Fig. 3 shows a time-series plot of dissolved oxygen
concentration at 7 m above bottom (blue) and the difference in
salinity of the upper (8 m below the surface) and lower (8 m above
bottom) sensors (green) on the Louisiana Shelf south of Atchafalaya
Bay (water depth is 20 m). The salinity difference can be thought of as
an estimate of the water column stratification and stability. The
striking aspect of this graphic is the covariance of the two series for
high-frequency (order 1 day) variations. When stratification is high
(large negative values in graphic), dissolved oxygen concentrations
are low, suggesting the inability of the oxygen rich surface water to
mix with oxygen poor bottom water. This graphic also suggests that at
a given location bottom dissolved oxygen concentration can wildly
vary on very short time scales (hours). This would suggest that a
single observation at a given location during a monitoring cruise could
lead to confusing conclusions about the size of the hypoxic zone. For
example, if a station had been done when the bottom waters are
hypoxic, the station would be included in the regional map showing
the region to be hypoxic. If the station were done just 6 h later, the
region would not be considered hypoxic. But, if it were done perhaps
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T.S. Bianchi et al. / Science of the Total Environment xxx (2010) xxx–xxx
Fig. 3. A time series of conductivity (salinity) difference (green) between sensors placed at 8 m and 14 m below the surface and dissolved oxygen concentration (mL L− 1; blue) at
14 m depth at a location south of Atchafalaya Bay (29°N, 92°W), in Spring 2005.
24 h later it would again be considered hypoxic. In such a scenario,
should the region be considered hypoxic or not for management
purposes? The point here is that hypoxia in temporally variable over
daily and seasonal time-scales.
Another example illustrating short period (less than 1 day)
variability is shown in Fig. 4, a Hovmuller diagram showing water
column variability (y-axis) of dissolved oxygen concentration (colors)
and salinity (black contours) as a function of time in hours (x-axis)
during a prolonged (36-hour) station at the same location the time-
series observations of Fig. 3 were obtained. Here, the water column
was only weakly stratified at the beginning of the record. As time
progresses, oceanographic and atmospheric conditions changed.
Fresh water from the Atchafalaya, moved southward past the station,
while salty water from offshore moved coastward. The result was an
increase in stratification at this location. Dissolved oxygen levels near
bottom begin depleted, however, as stratification increases and
ventilation decreases, oxygen levels decrease steadily and ultimately
go hypoxic. Mixing, as indicated by the Richardson number, is mostly
confined to the near-surface (2–10 m) layers. However, around hour
20, mixing at 12 m ventilates the lower layer by mixing upward low
oxygen water, followed by a period (hours 25–29) where high oxygen
waters mix downward. These series of figures show the large
variability that can occur on very short time scales (hours) and that
the nature of mixing and ventilation on a continental shelf is subject
to the interrelationship of many processes that affect stratification and
water column stability.
Coastal current meanders associated with bathymetry variability
west of Terrebonne Bay and south of Atchafalaya Bay and along the
inner shelf (10–30 m depth) have been shown to affect the depth and
strength of the pycnocline with along-shelf spatial scales of about
15 km. Glenn et al. (2004) have observed topographic features off the
New Jersey inner shelf that are similarly co-located with historical
regions of low dissolved oxygen. A critical factor concerning the
volume of freshwater discharged onto the Texas–Louisiana Shelf is the
control of diversions operated by the U.S. Corp of Army Engineers.
Since 1963 with the opening of the Old River Control works, the ratio
of freshwater exiting on to the shelf near Morgan City, LA, i.e., the
Please cite this article as: Bianchi TS, et al, The science of hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico: A review, Sci Total Environ (2010),
doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.11.047
5
Atchafalaya River, has been constrained to 30% of the total
Mississippi-Red discharge: the distinct Red River discharge is wholly
directed into the AR. About 50% of the MR outflow goes east (Dinnel
and Wiseman, 1986; Etter et al., 2004), the consequence is that the
discharge from the AR to the Texas–Louisiana shelf roughly equals
that of the Mississippi through the Balize delta.
Many studies have reported on the dynamics of river plumes,
typically by separating the buoyant plume into dynamically defined
regions (e.g., Garvine, 1987; O'Donnell, 1990; Yankovsky and
Chapman, 1997; Hetland, 2005). Hetland and DiMarco (2008) showed
in a numerical study that physical processes may select the dominant
biological respiration pathway in the hypoxic zone. Near the
Mississippi River Delta, the shelf is steep and narrow and immediately
adjacent to the shelf break: the plume is trapped near the surface, and
water column respiration dominates. West of Terrebonne Bay and
south of Atchafalaya Bay, benthic respiration dominates over the broad
shallow shelf where the buoyant river plume often interacts directly
with the sea floor. Three-dimensional hydrodynamic models have
been used to investigate the pathways of fresh water leaving the
Texas–Louisiana shelf (Morey et al., 2003, 2005) and describe how
physical processes can select biological processes that cause hypoxia
(Hetland and DiMarco, 2008; Wang and Justic, 2009). A three-
dimensional hydrodynamic model requires inputs of river discharge
at timescales that resolve pulses in discharge (Yankovsky et al., 2000);
wind fields must resolve weather-band atmospheric processes (Pullen
and Allen, 2000; Garcia-Berdeal et al., 2002; Hetland, 2005; Hetland
and Signell, 2005; Choi and Wilkin, 2007; MacCready et al., 2009).
Riverine and near-field regions may be closely associated with
regions where river sediment loading and the associated chemical
reactions between reducing compounds in the nearshore sediments
are greatest (Morse and Rowe, 1999; Rowe et al., 2002). Further away
phytoplankton growth is fueled by high dissolved nitrogen concen-
trations (N b 120 μmol kg− 1, Si b200 μmol kg− 1: Turner and Rabalais,
1991; Hitchcock et al., 1997). D'Sa and DiMarco (2009) provide
evidence of temporal and spatial variability of chromophoric
dissolved organic matter (CDOM) during a sequence of cruises in
spring and summer 2005 that may be related to differences in
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
6 T.S. Bianchi et al. / Science of the Total Environment xxx (2010) xxx–xxx
Fig. 4. Vertical Hovmuller diagram showing dissolved oxygen concentration (mL L− 1; colors) as a function of depth (y-axis; meters) and time (x-axis; hours). Black contours show
isopleths of salinity observations concurrent with oxygen observations.
microbial activity and community structure at different locations of
the shelf.
Offshore circulation features also dramatically affect the extent,
severity, and duration of hypoxia on the shelf through the exchange of
mass, energy, and momentum and by modulating the low-frequency
wind-driven circulation. The principal offshore forcing of the shelf
regions of the northern GOM is presumed to be associated with the
Loop Current and its associated eddies (Molinari et al., 1978; Sturges
and Evans, 1983; Walker, 1996; Walker et al., 1996; Nowlin et al.,
2001; Sturges, 2005; DiMarco et al., 2005; Walker et al., 2005; Schmitz
et al., 2005). Episodic offshore circulation features can disrupt the
wind-driven circulation patterns over the shelf; this can result in the
cross-shelf transport of mass and material. The influence of these
events on the hydrography and hypoxia can be considerable as much
of freshwater can be entrained into the offshore feature and
transported directly into deep water and away from the shelf, as
has been shown to happen east of the delta by Belabbassi (2006),
Walker et al. (2005), and Morey et al. (2003). Using SeaWiFS data,
Yuan et al. (2004) demonstrated that eddies generated by hurricanes
and tropical storms entrain significant amounts of the Mississippi
River's dissolved organic carbon (DOC) into the oligotrophic GOM.
Exchange processes between the shelf and open GOM then likely
reduce coastal hypoxia by reducing stratification and transporting
nutrients and organic and particulate material from the shelf.
DiMarco and Reid (1998) found three dominant tidal constituents
that account for roughly 10% of the total variance in the 8- to 40-hour
(inertial) energy band, although this percentage can increase to nearly
50% inshore. The northeast corner of the Texas–Louisiana Shelf, near
Atchafalaya Bay, has the largest tidal constituents. Inertial currents are
known to exist widely in the ocean (Webster, 1968) and are
attributed to sudden changes of wind stress (Pollard and Millard,
1970), tidal resonance (Knauss, 1962), or bottom scattering of tidal
Please cite this article as: Bianchi TS, et al, The science of hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico: A review, Sci Total Environ (2010),
doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.11.047
energy (Hendershott, 1973). In the northern GOM, inertial currents
are driven mainly by the passage of atmospheric fronts and tropical
storms and hurricanes (Nowlin et al., 1998). Sea-breeze driven
inertial motions have been shown to be among the largest non-storm
currents on the shelf and can significantly reduce and at times
eliminate vertical stratification and enhance ventilation (Chen et al.,
1996; DiMarco et al., 2000; Wang et al., 1996; Zhang et al., 2009,
2010). The cumulative effect of tidal and, more significantly, near-
inertial current energy is to reduce the severity of coastal hypoxia on
the Louisiana Shelf by promoting mixing.
4. Sediment organic carbon sources and memory effects
Lohrenz et al. (1997) observed a direct relationship between
riverine nutrient fluxes and primary production in Louisiana conti-
nental shelf waters. Primary production across the Louisiana shelf is
highly dynamic, with rates ranging from as low as 0.5 g C m− 2 day− 1
in winter months up to 10 g C m− 2 day− 1 during the summer
(Lohrenz et al., 1990; Redalje et al., 1994; Lohrenz et al., 1999).
According to a model by Dagg and Breed (2003), nitrogen availability
in the MRP should alter the structure of the phytoplankton
community and interactions between different size classes of both
phytoplankton and zooplankton. Thus, in the ARP and MRP the flux of
phytoplankton to sediments represents a significant source of labile
organic carbon to the sediments that is important in the controlling
hypoxia within the plume regions (Breed et al., 2004; Green et al.,
2006). In regions more to the west of the ARP and MRP, upwelling
effects are also believed to be important in supporting primary
production on the shelf that may or may not influence hypoxia
(Walker, 2005; Walker et al., 2005, Nowlin et al., 1998); research is
currently underway to resolve the processes of the western shelf and
their role in hypoxia.
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As sediments are introduced to the hypoxic zone on the Louisiana
shelf the fate of important biogeochemical constituents in the benthic
boundary layer (BBL) and upper seabed is determined primarily by
two sets of processes: the rates and pathways of sediment transport;
and the associated rates of relevant biological and geochemical
transformations. Consequently, some materials are selectively se-
questered (buried) on the shelf in the hypoxia zone (∼ 20–50 m
isobaths) whereas others are transported beyond this area (e.g.,
Bianchi et al., 2006). For river-derived particulates reaching the BBL
on the shelf there are four possible fates: (a) cross-shelf transport;
(b) along-shelf transport; (c) remineralization to DOC − CO2; or,
(d) seabed burial. Shelf areas adjacent to the MR and AR mouth are
characterized by rapid deposition of relatively organic-rich riverine
muds (given that sands are typically trapped in river mouth bar/delta
front deposits) that are critical to carbon cycling. These deposits
are referred to as mobile muds, in that seasonal deposition rates
during the river flood (typically measured with radiotracers such
as 7Be and 234Th) can exceed longer-term (decadal) accumulation
rates (measured by 210Pb, 137Cs, and 14C) by an order of magnitude
due to wave-current resuspension and dispersal in this shallow
setting: this cycle is system-specific, controlled by the relative timing
of the flood pulse and storm (frontal and cyclonic) season (Corbett
et al., 2004). More importantly, mobile muds in many river-
dominated shelf regions have been shown to be dominated in benthic
biomass by bacteria (Aller and Stupakoff, 1996; Aller and Aller, 2004;
Aller and Blair, 2006). Hence, they are extremely efficient in digesting
many types of organic matter (Aller, 1998) and are thus potential
sinks for oxygen.
In the Mississippi subdelta, where most burial of plume-derived
sediments takes place in water depths N40 m (Corbett et al., 2006),
the mobile muds are confined to the adjacent inner shelf within
and inshore of the hypoxic zone (off Barataria Bay where there is
little or no long-term sediment accumulation (Corbett et al., 2006)).
In contrast, on the Atchafalaya subaqueous (clinoform) mud delta
and adjacent chenier coast, burial takes place in b10 m water depths
(Neill and Allison, 2005; Draut et al., 2005). Hence, the mobile mud
zone, where partial removal by winter frontal and tropical storm
resuspension takes place, is superimposed on the main depocenter,
but has been observed to extend to at least the 20 m isobath (Allison
et al., 2000). The transport of these mobile muds, in the form of
fluid muds, has been observed directly in this area during frontal
passage (Allison et al., 2000; Kineke et al., 2006; Jaramillo et al.,
2009) and cyclone passage (Allison et al., 2005; Sheremet et al.,
2005). This spatial difference in MR versus AR mobile mud activity,
relative to the hypoxic zone, suggests this accelerated digestion of
organic matter has a variable impact along-shelf on BBL interaction
with hypoxia. Temporal dynamics of both fluid and mobile muds
are also likely to influence hypoxia, particularly in shallow
shelf regions where benthic–pelagic coupling is enhanced (Morse
and Eldridge, 2007; Eldridge and Morse, 2008, and references
therein).
Deposition and storage of terrestrially-derived OC in the inner
Louisiana shelf sediments in the hypoxic region may also represent a
source of oxygen-consuming organic matter. Past work has shown
that there are inputs of vascular plant sources to the inner shelf from
riverine (Goñi et al., 1998; Bianchi et al., 2002; Gordon and Goñi,
2003) and wetland (Sampere et al., 2008) sources. However, despite
this extensive work on sources of OC in sediments, the role of
terrestrial (wetlands and river sources) versus phytoplankton sources
in supporting microbial respiration throughout the hypoxic region is
not well understood.
Changes in the source composition of OC and remineralization and
N/P concentration in the lower reaches of the MR and AR introduce
further complexity to the relative importance of source inputs to
sediments in the hypoxic zone on the inner Louisiana shelf. The tidal
influence within the MR channel can reach as far as Baton Rouge, LA
Please cite this article as: Bianchi TS, et al, The science of hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico: A review, Sci Total Environ (2010),
doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.11.047
7
during low discharge, with estuarine circulation (salt wedge pene-
tration) making it as far as New Orleans, LA (Soileau et al., 1989; Galler
and Allison, 2008). Channel bed storage of suspended fines takes place
for months during the lower discharge phase in both the tidal and
estuarine zones, which may trap 20–30% of the total annual sediment
discharge (Demas and Curwick, 1987; Galler, 2004; Dagg et al., 2005;
Galler and Allison, 2008). Remobilization of this stored sediment and
pore water dissolved constituents takes place during the rising
discharge phase (typically over a short period of days sometime in
January–March) (Sutula et al., 2004), impacting the timing of these
materials to the shelf. This low discharge rainout of fines in the tidal-
estuarine river reach also allows for increased phytoplankton
production in less turbid surface waters. Erosion of relict fluvio-
deltaic strata from the river bottom may introduce another particulate
OC (POC) source to the shelf (Bianchi et al., 2007). Using lignin-
phenols as biomarkers of terrigenous inputs, Bianchi et al. (2002,
2007) examined the variability of terrestrial OC sources in the lower
Mississippi River and Louisiana shelf sediments with particular
emphasis on the sorting and transport dynamics of OC within one of
the primary dispersal pathways. Similar to other studies (Goñi et al.,
1998; Onstad et al., 2000), their data indicated the dominance of
angiosperm materials within river sediments. Bulk δ13C measure-
ments in Louisiana shelf sediments have shown a general trend of δ13C
enrichment with increasing distance offshore (Bianchi et al., 2002;
Gordon et al., 2001). Bianchi et al. (2002) reported δ13C in the lower
Mississippi River sediments with a mean of −23.2‰—slightly more
depleted than the mean value of − 20.3‰ reported by Onstad et al.
(2000). Gordon et al. (2001) reported even more depleted values near
the mouth of the Atchafalaya River (−27‰), typical of C3 plant debris,
with more enriched values (− 22 to −21‰) offshore. These processes
may have become a relatively greater contributor to the hypoxic shelf
zone post-1950, given evidence of reduced sediment loading to the
shelf from the river due to damming and soil conservation in the
drainage basin (Allison et al., 2007).
The rate at which oxygen fluxes across the pycnocline is largely
controlled by stratification and the metabolism of bottom and surface
waters. In the case of metabolism, it has been generally accepted that
most of the organic matter is consumed in the water column of the
ARP and MRP (via oxic respiration) (Dortch et al., 1994), thereby
controlling hypoxia in bottom waters. However, more recent work
has shown that both aerobic and anaerobic respiration in sediments of
the northern GOM provide important sinks of oxygen and contribute
significantly to hypoxia of bottom waters, particularly in shallow
regions (Morse and Eldridge, 2007; Eldridge and Morse, 2008). As a
result, the overall paradigm of oxygen consumption in the water
column as the most important metabolic process in controlling
hypoxia in the northern GOM is changing to a more sediment-
dominated “state” as a result of the “legacy” or “memory” of organic
matter loading to these sediments (Turner et al., 2008). In fact, the
maximum efflux of ammonium from the sediments occurs in
September and October in the MRP region and may be important in
controlling the autumnal phytoplankton production, thereby extend-
ing the length of time that hypoxia occurs (e.g., memory effect) that
year (Eldridge and Morse, 2008). The ideas of sediment respiration
being important sinks of oxygen in this region are certainly not new.
Sediment Community Oxygen Consumption (SCOC), which is a
function of season, oxygen concentration, and OC input and
concentration, was suggested as an important process in this region
by Rowe et al. (2002). Using a one dimensional model that examined
the role of SCOC, water column oxygen consumption WCOC, and
stratification, led to the ‘conclusion’ that stratification was more
important than SCOC and WCOC in this system (Rowe, 2001).
However, once again, when examining the relative importance of
these processes in controlling hypoxia, we need to consider this as a
two-plume system. The division of the shelf into zones that reflect
where SCOC (and thus hypoxia) is enhanced by 1) the river itself and
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its constituents, 2) coupling to pelagic production enhanced by
nutrients (primary productivity high, with N and P alternately
limiting), and 3) stratification (primary productivity low and nitrate
limited in the far field) was first introduced by Rowe and Chapman
(2002, 2003). More recently, the relative importance of sediment
respiration was considered for the first time in the context of a two-
plume system (Hetland and DiMarco, 2008). In general, while both
plumes are affected by winds, the role of water column respiration is
stronger near the MRP, with sediment respiration being more
dominant near the ARP. The reasons for this are largely due to
differences in bottom topography within these plume regions. For
example, near the MRP, the river empties into a deeper region where
buoyancy-driven stratification produces a well-defined pycnocline
that allows for longer residence times of sinking particulates to be
consumed by aerobic respiration processes in the water column. To
the west near the ARP, interactions with bottom topography of
shallow estuaries and the shelf results in a destabilization of
buoyancy-driven flow, resulting in a less-defined pycnocline, where
hypoxia in bottom waters is largely controlled by benthic/sediment
respiration (Hetland and DiMarco, 2008).
5. Approaches in modeling hypoxia
Simple models of Texas–Louisiana shelf hypoxia (Bierman et al.,
1994; Justic et al., 2002; Scavia et al., 2003; Turner et al., 2006a) use
either riverine nutrient loading or some measure of surface nutrients as
forcing. These models (in particular the two models used for prediction
and management, Scavia et al., 2003, 2004 and Turner et al., 2006a) have
essentially the same predictive ability as a straight correlation between
river discharge and hypoxic area (Wiseman et al., 1997; Hetland and
DiMarco, 2008). However, since fresh water inputs and nutrient loading
are highly correlated, these models do not differentiate the separate
effects of stratification and nutrient loading in the formation of hypoxia.
If this ratio changes due to extreme nutrient reductions, statistical
models based on nutrient loading alone may under-predict the effects of
stratification in controlling hypoxia on the system.
Hetland and DiMarco (2008), using a three-dimensional hydro-
dynamic model, suggest that bottom hypoxia in the region west of
Terrebonne Bay affected by the ARP, may be largely controlled by
stratification, and may be less sensitive to nutrient reductions than
predicted by statistical models that do not separate the effects of
nutrient loading and stratification. Green et al. (2008), using an
ecosystem model of the MR Delta outflow, suggest that decreases in
riverine nutrient loading do not necessarily result in proportional
Fig. 5. Time-series of Mississippi River nitrogen load (red line), Mississippi River monthly average streamflow (grey fill), and hypoxic area (black dots) from 1968 to 2005. Data sources:
river discharge, nitrogen: USGS; hypoxic area: LUMCON.
Please cite this article as: Bianchi TS, et al, The science of hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico: A review, Sci Total Environ (2010),
doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.11.047
reductions in plume primary production or sedimentation. None of
the simple models discussed above contain information about how
different processes act in different shelf regions. Justic et al. (2007)
discuss the pros and cons of simple versus complex models to predict
hypoxia, and suggest that an approach that uses many different
modeling techniques will result in the best predictive ability. It is clear
that future modeling work must be directed toward creating models
that contain enough complexity to simulate the different shelf
regions, and the fundamental processes that act in each region;
simple models should be informed by realistic three-dimensional
hydrodynamic and biogeochemical models.
Both nutrient loading and Mississippi River streamflow have been
correlated with hypoxic area measured in late July (Fig. 5). For
nutrient loading, the strongest correlation is with May nutrient load
(r 2 ≈ 0.45, 0.08 to 0.72 at 95% confidence), although there is
significant correlation between June (r 2 ≈ 0.28, not significant at
95% confidence) and May–June combined (r 2 ≈ 0.47, 0.06 to 0.8 at 95%
confidence). There are very similar correlations for discharge. The
correlation with measured hypoxic area and average May streamflow
is r 2 ≈ 0.36 (0.03 to 0.65 at 95% confidence; r 2 ≈ 0.41 (0.04 to 0.77 for
95% confidence) for May–June combined streamflow. The highest
correlations is between streamflow and hypoxic area come with
integrated streamflow starting at the beginning of May and
integrating over approximately 40 to 60 days (Fig. 6). Thus, the
correlation of hypoxic area and either nutrient loading or streamflow
is similar, and indistinguishable at 95% confidence. One of the reasons
for this similarity in correlation is the high correlation between
combined May–June nutrient load and May–June streamflow
(r 2 ≈ 0.95, 0.86 to 0.98) (Fig. 7). This is unusual because the
correlation between streamflow and nutrient load (r2 = 0.7) is not
generally high throughout the year. The reasons for this high
correlation in late spring are not yet clear. Perhaps this is due to
mobilization of nutrients in watersheds during periods of high
freshwater runoff. Nevertheless, this exercise reveals the limitation
when using simple statistical models to represent complex systems
that have multiple forcing parameters (e.g., Justic et al., 2005; Greene
et al., 2009). The limitations are especially compounded when some of
the forcing parameters are highly correlated, as is the case with
nutrients and stream flow. For example, simply replacing nutrient
loading with stream flow in the simple model can lead to statistically
identical predictive power of the hypoxic area, while completing
ignoring the role of nutrients. That scenario is as misguided as a
statistical model based solely on nutrients while ignoring the role of
physical processes.
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Fig. 6. Contour plot of correlation coefficient (r-squared) for averaged Mississippi River streamflow versus observed July hypoxic area for the years 1985 through 2008. Averaging
interval for stream flow is given in days along the x-axis; y-axis shows the start-day for the interval averaged. Colorbar at right indicates r-squared value.
6. The paradox of hypoxia and ecosystems effects
Concern about potential effects of hypoxia on fisheries are justified
(Caddy, 1993), and in some cases documented: large-scale economic
consequences include reduced production of commercially and
recreationally valuable fish and shellfish (Diaz and Rosenberg, 1995;
Breitburg, 2002), changes in the relative importance of various trophic
pathways within food webs (Caddy, 1993; Breitburg et al., 2009), and
a reduction in the economic value of some fisheries (Lipton and Hicks,
2003; Mistiaen et al., 2003). However, not all ecosystems are equally
vulnerable to the consequences of hypoxia, with adverse impacts
being more likely in enclosed or semi-enclosed basins, including
estuaries (Caddy, 1993). Even large, semi-enclosed systems such as
the Chesapeake Bay and the Baltic Sea can respond quite differently to
nutrient enrichment if significant changes in food web structure have
Fig. 7. Bootstrap correlation (r-squared) between mean nutrient loading for May, May–
June, June, and July versus observed July hypoxic areas for the years 1985 through 2008.
Please cite this article as: Bianchi TS, et al, The science of hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico: A review, Sci Total Environ (2010),
doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.11.047
9
occurred in response to declines in water quality or overexploitation
of upper trophic levels (Wulf and Ulanowicz, 1989).
In the northern GOM, hypoxia on the shallow shelf due to MR
discharge does not appear to have adversely impacted fisheries in the
region, although some effects, such as changes in distributions of
mobile fishery species and the fishers that prosecute the fisheries,
are likely. To put this in perspective, fresh water surplus in the
northwestern GOM (Deegan et al., 1986) creates a unique and
separable zoogeographical province (Louisiana) with an “estuarine-
like” benthic community on the shallow shelf (Engle and Summers,
2000). The ecological environment for benthic organisms is harsh due
to natural hypoxia and high sedimentation rates, and consists of low
diversity, high productivity species capable of rapid recolonization
(Engle and Summers, 2000). Moreover, the area now affected by
anthropogenic seasonal hypoxia is trawled frequently by vessels
simultaneously towing between two and four, 10 m nets (Caillouet
et al., 2008), creating mechanical disturbances that may be more
adverse than the effects of hypoxia (NRC, 2002). As such, the benthic
community is adapted to disturbance, and many of the fisheries are
comprised of species that either take advantage of the high primary
and secondary productivity generated by river discharge in the water
column above the hypoxic bottom layer, or are estuarine-dependent
winter-spawners that rely on Louisiana's coastal wetlands as nursery
habitat (Cowan et al., 2008). Recent analyses from the GOM show that
neither declines in fisheries productivity or changes in trophic
structure (Chesney et al., 2000; Craig and Crowder, 2005; de Mutsert
et al., 2008; de Mutsert and Cowan, 2009) have occurred in response
to hypoxia or other environmental stressors, a result for hypoxia that
is consistent with global-scale results (Breitburg, 2002; Breitburg
et al., 2003, 2009).
That said, important fisheries have been overexploited (Caillouet
et al., 2008, de Mutsert et al., 2008), and penaeid shrimp landings are
now decreasing (O'Connor and Whitall, 2007), but the decreases in
shrimp landings are not related to hypoxia. Rather, decreases in
shrimp landings are due to reductions in fishing effort driven by high
fuel prices and cheap imported shrimp (Keithly and Poudel, 2008);
catch-per-unit-effort of shrimp and blue crabs are increasing rapidly.
Reductions in shrimp effort (N80% reduction in effort, personal
communication) also are reducing by-catch, and demersal fish
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10 T.S. Bianchi et al. / Science of the Total Environment xxx (2010) xxx–xxx
biomass is increasing in the shallow GOM to levels we have not
observed in recent times (4-fold increase in relative biomass since
2002, personal communication, Walter Ingram, NOAA Fisheries,
Southeast Fisheries Sciences Center, Mississippi Laboratories, Pasca-
goula, MS), making it more difficult to establish a link between
hypoxia and fisheries productivity in the GOM. This may increase the
possibility that hypoxia and other declines in habitat quality and
quantity may shift the ecological baseline such that precipitous and
perhaps irreversible (Jackson et al., 2001) declines in fisheries
productivity occur before we recognize the symptoms and identify
solutions (Cowan et al., 2008).
7. Coastal bays and wetlands, diversions, and hurricanes
The eastern section of the hypoxic shelf in Louisiana is adjacent to
three large and shallow (2-4 m water depth), deltaic inter-
distributary estuaries (e.g., Barataria, Terrebonne, and Atchafalaya
bays), whose basins contain extensive marsh-dominated fringing
wetlands. In the last century, particularly in Barataria and Terre-
bonne basins, these areas have been altered in ways that potentially
impact shelf hypoxia including loss of wetlands and expansion of
open water habitat in response to subsidence driven by sediment
compaction, lack of riverine input (Meckel et al., 2006; Day et al.,
2007; Tornqvist et al., 2008), oil–gas withdrawal (Morton et al.,
2006), and retreat of shorelines due to wave attack and extensive
canal construction (Penland et al., 2000). Other impacts include 1)
reduction of marsh area due to eustatic sea level rise, 2) progressive
decay of bay-fronting barrier islands that limit water exchange with
the adjacent shelf, and 3) loss of riverine water and sediment from
overbanking with construction of artificial levees along the MR
channel (magnitude calculated in Tornqvist et al., 2007; Day et al.
2007). The progressive removal of organic-rich marsh facies along
shorelines has been shown in Barataria Basin to yield an average
3.7 × 104 t of labile POC to the estuary, equivalent to ∼ 5% of the
annual POC flux from the MR to the margin (Wilson and Allison,
2008). The likely increase in estuary-shelf exchange, coupled with
the episodic resuspension in these bays (and mobile mud re-
distribution evidence on the inner shelf) induced by frontal and
cyclonic storms, makes it likely this wetland source is coupled to the
shelf. Hurricanes may be particularly important in this regard:
studies offshore of Barataria Bay following Hurricane Katrina and
Rita in 2005 demonstrated that seafloor erosion of the bay and
adjacent shelf extended to at least 40 m water depth and offshore-
oriented, post-storm flows caused event layer deposition across the
entire shelf and into the adjacent Mississippi Canyon (Goni et al.,
2007). It has been suggested that hurricanes are currently the most
important source of sediments deposited on coastal marshes and
that hurricane-caused deposition could be sufficient to offset some
future loss of wetlands (Turner et al., 2006b). This idea has recently
been called into question (Tornqvist et al. 2007). Baumann et al.
(1984) showed that both storm resuspension and riverine input
were important to sediment input to marshes but the river was more
important near the Atchafalaya delta.
Dagg et al. (2007) have also shown that zooplankton detritus
represents a significant contribution to bottom water hypoxia in the
northern GOM. Other recent work has shown that DOC sources from
estuaries and marshes represent significant sources of OC to the inner
Louisiana shelf (surface and bottom waters), which may also fuel
hypoxia in certain regions (Bianchi et al., 2009). Moreover, in the
future, we might expect productivity in these estuaries to change if
large (N50,000 cfs) artificial water and sediment diversions are
created in the MR and AR as proposed (Day et al., 2007). Existing
small (5000–10,000 cfs) MR diversions at Davis Pond and Caernarvon
were designed for re-introducing river water to slow saline intrusion
in bay-fringing wetlands as well as for stabilization and restoration of
wetlands. Davis Pond has lowered salinities across Barataria Bay; this
Please cite this article as: Bianchi TS, et al, The science of hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico: A review, Sci Total Environ (2010),
doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.11.047
indication of riverine influence likely also provides river-derived
nutrients to fuel Bay production. Thus, the role of marsh and estuarine-
derived OC sources to the hypoxic zone is continually changing and
needs further study.
It is not known whether larger MR diversions (and their associated
high nutrient loading), will result in a reduction or increase in nutrient
loads reaching the shelf but several studies have shown significant
reductions of nutrients as river water flowed through inshore wetlands
and bays (Lane et al., 2002, 2004, 2006). Mitsch et al. (2001) indicated
that the most nutrient reduction that could take place in the Mississippi
River delta was between 5 and 10% and further reduction would have to
come from upstream actions. White et al. (2009) showed that when the
Bonnet Carre Spillway was opened in 2008, there was a 7.5% reduction
in nutrients reaching the Gulf of Mexico. The spillway opening led to
high turbidity and freshening of Lake Pontchartrain, but there was no
algal bloom as has happened during previous openings. It is also unclear
what the effect will be on the coastal wetlands. Experiments with
nutrient additions indicate that high nutrient loading leads to reduction
in below ground biomass production (Darby and Turner, 2008a,b).
These experiments used very high nitrogen application rates on the
order of 225 gN m−2 year− 1. Loading rates into wetlands from the
introduction of river water are much lower. For the Caernarvon
diversion from the east bank of the MR (into Breton Sound), loading
rates are on the order of 10 gN m−2 year− 1 and 1 gP m−2 year− 1
(Hyfield et al., 2008). For the Atchafalaya, similar loading rates into
wetlands are reported (8 gN m−2 year− 1) but N loading to the shallow
inshore areas of Atchafalaya Bay–Vermillion Bay complex is higher
(60 gN m−2 year− 1) (Lane et al., 2002). Further, measurements of
above and below ground productivity at Caernarvon showed high levels
of production and thus no indication of negative effects of the diversion
(Day et al., 1994). Limiting factors affecting marsh growth were
moderate to low (nutrients, Eh, salinity, sulfide, water levels). Recent
observations (Greg Snedden, USGS, personal communication) at
Caernarvon suggest that outfall management involving spoil banks
and water control structures is leading to impoundment and long
duration flooding. Balanced against this, Swarenski et al. (2008)
indicated that river input into the Bayou Penchant area east of the AR
delta led to reduced marsh vigor due to sulfides in river water. However,
Sasser et al. (2004) reported that exclusion of nutria by fences
dramatically increased both above and below ground marsh growth in
this area (see also Evers et al., 1998). (OOB) Day et al. (2009) compared a
salt marsh bordering Old Oyster Bayou near Fourleague Bay that was
strongly impacted by the Atchafalaya River to one near Bayou Chitigue
in northwestern Terrebonne Bay that was isolated from riverine impact.
The OOB marsh was about 10 cm higher and had soil strength an order
of magnitude higher than the BC marsh. The OOB marsh is still a stable
landscape feature while the BC marsh disappeared in the mid 1990s.
Interestingly, when Hurricane Andrew passed over these two sites in
1992, the OOB marsh captured over 80% of sediments deposited due to
the hurricane while the BC marsh retained only 34%.
8. Climate change and hypoxia
There is almost universal agreement among climate scientists that
there have been global-scale anthropogenically induced changes in
the earth's climate during the last 100 years (IPCC, 2007). However,
climatic influences are estimated to account for only 20% of the
observed increase in nitrate flux since 1954 and account for 20% of the
variance of the area of hypoxia (Justic et al. 2003a,b). Global wind
patterns are controlled by the exchange of heat between the tropics
and the poles. The seasonal cycle of wind forcing in the GOM will
likely be affected by a change in global wind patterns. Some
investigators have reported that some global warming scenarios will
lead to more frequent and intense hurricanes (Emanuel, 2005). A
reduction in the transport through the Yucatan Channel likely means
a reduction in the Gulf Stream System transport (Bryden et al., 2005;
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Gordon, 1967; Roemmich, 1981; Schienbaum et al., 2002). Changes in
Loop Current statistics will likely result in changes with shelf-open
Gulf exchange and the freshwater budget. Decadal scale variability of
rainfall in the Great Plains regions of the United States has been linked
to major climate indices, e.g., the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El
Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (e.g., McPhaden, 1999; McPhaden
et al., 2006) and may increase or decrease the stratification (but not
necessarily the nutrient loading) on the shelf. Because of the diversity
of potential system responses, the role of future climate change on
GOM hypoxia remains unclear.
9. Conclusions
There are many physical processes that occur on the Texas–
Louisiana Shelf that affect the spatial distribution and temporal
variability of freshwater and biochemical material. Some of the
processes can enhance and strengthen stratified conditions on the
shelf, thus are hypoxia-favorable, while other processes tend to
weaken and reduce stratification and are hypoxia-unfavorable. The
physical processes have a wide range of temporal (seconds to years)
and spatial scales (meters to tens of kilometers) The relative timing
and strengths of the physical processes can often produce complicated
responses on the shelf that can vary spatially and temporally. The
general pattern of low-frequency shelf circulation, peak summer
insolation, infrequent atmospheric frontal systems in summer, weak
tides, peak spring river discharge and nutrient loading all favor the
development of summer hypoxia on the shelf. There is strong
evidence to suggest that the surface ARP and MRP are typically two
spatially distinct systems, which are discharged into contrasting shelf
environments, especially in terms of water depth and dynamics.
Yet, some questions remain, including:
• How do transformation and transports associated with the Atch-
afalaya discharge differ from those of the Mississippi River Delta?
• How often does Mississippi–Atchafalaya related-hypoxia extend
into Texas waters?
• What are the frequency of occurrence and spatial extent of hypoxic
episodes east of the delta?
• How does the transport of fine sedimentary material affect hypoxia,
and what controls the transport?
• To what extent does POC and DOC released from wetland erosion
and Bay productivity and remineralization exchange with the
adjacent shelf and fuel hypoxia?
• What is the role of bottom boundary layer in controlling hypoxia?
Are the mechanisms occurring in the bottom boundary layer
different in the eastern and western hypoxic regions?
• How will restoration activities in the Mississippi affect hypoxia,
especially large diversions further up the basin (Blum and Roberts
2009)?
Clearly, a necessary step to unwrap the complexities of the processes
that are encountered on the Texas–Louisiana Shelf is improved general
circulation numerical modeling efforts with extensive validation with in
situ observations. As previously stated, local wind forcing can have a
profound effect on the structure and duration of hypoxia on the shelf.
Because local weather is notoriously difficult to predict just a few days in
advance and impossible to predict months or years in advance, these
models should likely be run with a range of weather scenarios to
produce a distribution of possible outcomes of hypoxic area for a given
discharge, since discharge on the shelf takes from up to about a month to
emerge into the Gulf after being measured at the Tarbert Landing gage
station. A network of real-time monitoring systems positioned at key
locations across the region will assist in monitoring efforts, bring broad
spatial and temporal context to process cruises, and provide coastal
managers timely information to make relevant and informed decisions.
Please cite this article as: Bianchi TS, et al, The science of hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico: A review, Sci Total Environ (2010),
doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.11.047
11
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