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Review of Literature
Bulk of prior research is focused on either how comparable firms are identified
for the simple multiple valuation, or which valuation multiple is superior in
terms of its valuation accuracy.
Among the studies wherein regression technique is applied for developing fo-
recasted multiples, Kisor and Whitbeck 1963 [7] developed a regression model
of P/E ratios with independent variables of growth rate in earnings, dividend
payout ratio and standard deviation of EPS changes. A similar analysis by Cragg
and Malkiel 1968 [8] established growth rate, payout ratio and beta for stocks as
independent variables. Zarowin 1990 [9] studied the relationship between P/E
ratios and analyst forecasts of growth and concluded that long-term growth has
a positive impact on P/E ratios. Chen and Chan 1991 [6] advocated that price to
book value reflects the production efficiency of a firm.
Among the studies on comparable companies’ approach, one by Agnes and
Ray 2000 [10] evaluated the valuation accuracy of PE, PBV and combined PE&
PBV multiples. Their findings revealed that PE benchmark valuation method
performs better than PBV while combined multiple outperforms the other two.
They concluded that though earnings are better indicators of a firm than book
value, neither can be substituted for the other. Kaplan and Ruback 1995 [11] es-
timated valuations for a sample of highly leveraged transactions (HLTs) based
on market value to EBITDA. The benchmark multiples were the median mul-
tiples for companies in the same industry, companies that were in similar trans-
actions, or companies in the same industry that were involved in similar transac-
tions. While their findings were that DCF valuations approximate transaction
values reasonably well, they also found that simple enterprise value to earnings
before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EV/EBITDA) multiples
results in similar valuation accuracy.
Similarly, Kim and Ritter 1999 [12] used several measures for the matching
companies in the valuation of IPO companies. The multiples used in their study
were P/E, P/BV, P/Sales, EV/sales, and EV/EBITDA. They found that all these
multiples yield positively biased estimates but that EBITDA multiple results in
the most precise valuation, particularly for the more established IPO companies.
They also showed that valuations improve when forecasted earnings rather than
historical earnings are used and advocated that comparable companies should be
identified by a specialist research firm rather than an algorithm.
Hotchkiss and Mooradian 1998 [13] used relative valuation multiples to esti-
mate the value of bankrupt companies. They compared these values with the
acquisition prices to determine the degree of discounting associated with bank-
rupt companies. The multiples they applied were the ratios of EV/sales and of
EV/assets. They reported that bankrupt companies are acquired at discounts of
40 - 70 percent. Pablo Fernandez 2002 [14] in his study on equity valuations
found that while multiples have broad dispersion, a comparison with multiples
of comparable firms helps in evaluating the reasons for differences between val-
uations across different firms. Yoo 2006 [15] examined a comprehensive ap-
proach to combine several simple multiple valuation outcomes to improve the
valuation accuracy of the simple multiple valuation techniques.
Lie and Lie 2002 [3] evaluated multiples used by practitioners for estimating a
company’s value. They opined that P/BV gives the best estimate of firm value as
compared to all other multiples. They also concluded that forecasted earnings
are better indicators of firm value as compared to trailing earnings; EBIDTA as
compared to EBIT but ultimately the performance of multiples varies with size,
profitability and several other characteristics of a firm. Nel 2009, 2010 [16] [17]
critically examined the gap between what academicians propose and what is
practiced by investment bankers and financial advisors with respect to equity
valuations. The results revealed that, although academia and investment practi-
tioners both favor the PE ratio and agree on the suitability of earnings and sales
as value drivers; they disagree significantly with regard to other multiples and
value drivers. Nissim 2013 [18] compared alternative valuation methods and
emphasized the relevance of book value multiples over earnings multiples in
valuation of insurance companies. They also stated that when book value mul-
tiples are conditioned to ROE, it improves the accuracy significantly.
Popular belief suggests that different sectors have different “best” multiples:
Liu, Nissim & Thomas 2001:135 [19]. Fernandez 2001:6 [12] found that analysts
have a preference for certain multiples in certain sectors, which supports the no-
tion that different multiples are suited to different sectors.
In the Indian context, Zahir and Khanna 1982 [20] observed dividend per
share as a significant determinant of share price. Kumar and Hundal 1986 [21]
looked at the influence of various factors such as dividend per share, EPS, net
sales per share, book value per share, net worth, retention ratio, leverage ratio
and growth in total assets on market price of shares in a regression model. The
analysis highlighted dividend per share and leverage as important factors. Sehgal
and Pandey 2007 [22] observed the behavior of multiples, their means and stan-
dard deviation for the period 1990 to 2007. Their findings were that the PE mul-
tiples do not show greater influence; rather PBV and PS showed greater rela-
tionship with these fundamentals. Their inference was that PBV value and PS
were more objective multiples—P/E could be influenced by arbitrary factors and
market sentiments. Bhargava 2014 [23] examined factors influencing price mul-
tiples in India and identified market beta, dividend payout and growth estimates
of the following year as key factors influencing stock valuations.
To the best of our knowledge, no study has explicitly examined the prediction
accuracy of different multiples by using regression technique for specific sectors
of Indian listed companies.
highly leveraged, thus, operating profits (EBIDTA) would define the sector valu-
ations best. Book value per share is a good measure to value bank stocks. The al-
ternative of comparing a stock’s price to earnings, or price-to-earnings (P/E) ra-
tio, may produce unreliable valuation results, as bank earnings can swing in
large variations from one quarter to the next due to unpredictable banking oper-
ations. In using book value per share, the valuation is referenced to equity that
has less ongoing volatility in terms of percentage changes because equity has a
much larger base, providing a more stable valuation measurement. As banks
grow larger and expand into nontraditional banking activities, especially trading,
their risk profiles become multidimensional and more difficult to construct, in-
creasing business and investment uncertainties. This is presumably the main
reason why bank stocks tend to be conservatively valued by investors who would
be concerned about a bank’s hidden risk exposures. The dataset for auto sector,
in our study includes companies from a wide spectrum with different financial
leverages, operating margins and not all companies in the sector are equally cap-
ital intensive, or growing at the same pace, therefore rather than earnings,
EBIDTA or book values, their sales would define their valuations.
Based on this rationale these three sectors are identified to test if the valuation
tools that theoretically define these sectors can be tested for their prediction ac-
curacy.
A basic criterion for short listing the companies was availability of the re-
quired data for all the three years namely, FY 14 to FY 16. A total of 639 firm
observations were there at the outset. The companies were identified on the basis
of three criteria: 1) all multiples are positive, that is, multiples with negative val-
ues were discarded; 2) the companies have at least three years of positive com-
pany year multiples; and 3) each sector has at least four observations that meet
criteria 1) and 2) above. Nel et al. 2013 [24], the first condition eliminates unrea-
listic multiples that cannot be used. The second condition ensures that selected
companies have a reasonable history as a going concern, and the third condition
ensures that the number of companies within each sector is not unnecessarily
small, preventing the situation where there are too few observations. After fil-
tering the original set for the above mentioned conditions, the total number of
firm observations for the final analysis were 470.
Defining the return on equity (ROE) = EPS0/Book Value of Equity, the value
of equity can be written as:
P0 ROE* Payout Ratio*1 gn
PBV
BV0 r g n
r gn
4) Enterprise value to EBIDTA (earnings before interest, depreciation, tax
and amortization)
Fundamental Drivers: Cost of capital, expected growth rate, tax rate,
reinvestment rate (ROC)
Firm value can be written as:
FCFF1
V0
WACC g
EBITDA WACC g WACC g WACC g
ΔWorking Capital EBITDA
WACC g
3. Empirical Findings
3.1. Descriptive Statistics
Table 2 presents the descriptive statistics of the ratios of value drivers to stock
prices. The chosen five representatives of value drivers are:
Earnings per share.
Cash flow per share.
Book value per share.
Statistics
AGE 0.0088
20.573
ROC
(0.00)
−0.013
D/P
(0.016)
showing that older companies with more established reputation and brand im-
age will have higher multiples and thus higher valuations.
size effect. Thus, the percent error will be AM-PM/AM where AM is actual mul-
tiple, PM is the predicted multiple.
As a test statistics, we consider the following two statistics simultaneously,
each of which measures the magnitude of the valuation errors by different ways:
1) Root Mean Square Error: It is used as a relative measure to compare fore-
casts or predicted values generated by a model with actual or observed values.
According to this criterion, a smaller error in a model indicates the model is
having better forecasting ability.
2) Theil Index: This measure is used more commonly in the field of econom-
ics, to identify inequalities. We have identified this measure to identify which
multiple fits the sectors best. Theil’s Inequality Coefficient is scale invariant. It
always lies between 0 and 1, where 0 indicates a perfect fit.
Through these two measures, we compare the multiples for each sector to
identify least prediction error. The price multiple where pricing error, as per
both measures, is least among the four multiples viz. P/E, P/BV, P/CF and P/S,
for most of the sectors is set as the most efficient one in forecasting prices.
It is seen from Table 9 that for auto sector, RMSE is least for EV/ EBIDATA
followed by P/S and then P/BV. For the Banking sector, the least RMSE is for
P/BV followed by EV/EBIDTA and then P/S. For Steel sector, EV/ EBIDTA has
the least RMSE followed by P/S and then P/BV. These findings are in line with
the theoretical framework used by academicians in identifying suitable multiples
for different sectors. It can also be seen that for the purpose of this study, earn-
ings are not relevant as multiple.
Table 10 on Theil index also substantiates our findings that EV/EBIDTA is
superior followed by P/BV and P/S.
We conclude from our findings of RMSE and Theil coefficient that least pre-
diction errors are observed with EV/EBIDTA and maximum errors are observed
in P/E. One reason for earnings not being significant is that historical earnings
are considered while most valuations are based on forecasted earnings. Also,
earnings are more subject to creative accounting practices and may not always
reflect the true value of a firm.
4. Conclusions
This study is conducted on an emerging market economy for Indian listed firms.
Emerging markets differ from developed markets in terms of their accounting
systems, liquidity, taxation laws among others. Thus the valuation techniques
developed and researched for developed economies may not hold true in the In-
dian context. With increasing investments by institutional investors in the
economy, it is imperative that valuations should reflect the true value of a com-
pany. This paper attempts to analyze prediction accuracy of 4 multiples across 3
sectors from 470 firm-observations.
Our findings show that revenue and EBIDTA margins are valuable indicators
of valuations and that book value is more important than earnings. This may
possibly be because the study relies on historical earnings. Prior research works
on comparable approach have also established superiority of book value over
earnings: Fama and French 1992 [26]. Even within historical earnings, the defi-
nition of earnings may give different results when it is before exceptional items,
or it is basic or diluted. A primary reason for using multiples in equity valuation
is that unlike dividend discount models and discounted cash flow techniques,
these require simpler calculations and fewer assumptions with respect to profit-
ability, growth rate, and discount rates among others. Thus, the probability of
bias is somewhat reduced. Moreover, the stock price so determined is a function
of an accounting variable that reflects the fundamentals of the company and also
a multiple which is based on comparable firms, thus providing true estimates of
the stock. However, the set of comparable firms chosen and the parameters cho-
sen are likely to impact our predicted price. Thus it is crucial that selection of
multiples, value drivers and set of comparable firms be identified with utmost
prudence.
Improved valuation practices are likely to give different perspectives to inves-
tors in their decision to invest in an emerging market economy. The techniques
used and parameters discovered can be deployed by analysts to add a perspective
to their stock analysis. They may estimate various multiples with the regression
models and compare the resultant price with the current price and bring out any
potential upside/downside. Our research is relevant to practitioners, such as in-
vestment bankers and analysts, who use multiples to value companies, as well as
to academic researchers. The results presented here may help such researchers
choose multiples that minimize the potential bias embedded in the value meas-
ures.
Funding
The infrastructure support provided by Fore School of Management, New Delhi
in supporting this research in greatly appreciated.