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MEMORANDUM

August 23, 2018

TO: INTERESTED PARTIES

FROM: PAUL GOODWIN


Goodwin Simon Strategic Research

RE: Topline Findings from AD 72 General Election Survey

In mid-August, GSSR completed a telephone poll in AD 72 on behalf of the Josh


Lowenthal for Assembly campaign. As we are seeing in other swing districts this cycle,
the 406 likely November voters we interviewed appear ready to elect a Democrat to
what has been a Republican seat.

Fundamentally, the poll showed that Republican Tyler Diep is an exceptionally weak
candidate for Assembly. In the heart of Orange County, and despite a small edge in
partisan registration, Diep trails Democrat Josh Lowenthal by 4 points, 47% to 43%.

Moreover, the poll shows that sharing relevant positive and negative information about
the candidates with voters, including Diep’s multiple (and in some cases jaw-dropping)
ethics violations and Trump connections, has the potential to give Lowenthal a double-
digit lead.

What is dragging down Diep is also affecting other Republicans in Orange County:

• Declining Republican registration,

• The immense burden placed on coastal Republican candidates by the very


unpopular President Trump.

As a result, we found that:

1. Democrats are more enthusiastic about voting than Republicans and by a notable
margin (73% of Democrats are more enthusiastic than usual about voting
compared to 65% of Republicans).

P.O. Box 366 Culver City, CA 90232 310/210-8984


email: paulg@goodwinsimon.com website: www.goodwinsimon.com
Goodwin Simon Strategic Research
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2. A majority of AD 72 voters (53%) dislike President Trump. This includes 23% of


GOP voters who dislike him. Most of the Independent voters dislike him. And at
84% unfavorable, Democrats dislike Trump far more than Republicans like him.

3. By 46% to 40%, likely voters prefer a generic Democrat over a generic Republican
for Assembly. More importantly, Independent voters split 13 points for a
Democrat. Democrats are 6 points more likely than Republicans to prefer one of
their own.

4. Democrat Josh Lowenthal starts this race with one in four voters (25%) who
already have a favorable view of him and just 8% who give him an unfavorable
rating. His GOP opponent, Tyler Diep, earns only an 18% favorable rating, and at
13%, Diep’s unfavorable rating is nearly twice Lowenthal’s.

5. As shown in the table below, Democrats start the race much more loyal to
Lowenthal than Republicans are to Diep. In fact, 21% Republicans start with
Lowenthal, which suggests a considerable weakness for Diep with his GOP base.

6. Independents, at nearly 25% of the electorate, break solidly for Lowenthal.


First Vote Results All Dems GOP Ind.
Lowenthal 47% 75% 21% 49%
Diep 43% 14% 71% 41%
Net Lowenthal +4 +62 -50 +8
Not sure 10% 11% 8% 11%

Given more information, voters move even more decisively to Lowenthal:


• After an exchange of positive paragraphs, Lowenthal’s lead doubles to 8 points.
• And after an exchange of additional negative and positive information,
Lowenthal finishes with a potential lead of 17 points.

So:
A. Democrats are more enthusiastic about Lowenthal compared to GOP support for
Diep.
B. Independent voters split 8 points for Lowenthal.
C. Diep has some very damaging negatives related to his conduct and Trump
connections.
D. Lowenthal’s business experience and his focus on consumer and environmental
protections play well in this very moderate, coastal district.

The bottom line is this district is headed Blue this fall.