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Increasing population
Growing urbanization
Decreasing crop land
Continuing crop loss
Declining crop production
Declining bio-diversity
Climate Induced vulnerability of
Agriculture
• Plateau in Agriculture Productivity
• Fluctuating Rabi Productivity
• Kharif v/s Rabi (Rainfed v/s Irrigated)
• Contribution of Agricultural Growth in GDP
• FAO Assessment on Agricultural Productivity in India
• IPCC assessment on Ag. Productivity in India
– 2020 (2.5 to 10%)
– 2050 (5 to 30%)
Multi-decadal changes in Break days during
Monsoon
NUMBER OF BREAK DAYS DURING
1918-1947 14 36 21 55 54 25
1948-1977 22 44 64 21 33 41
1978-2003 23 32 39 6 14 37
Data of past 50 years show that number of Break days are more
in July as compared to August
Press Report on Drought
Rise in Extreme
Weather Events
• Frequency of intense
rainfall events has
increased over past
53 years. Extreme
rainfall events also
increased over the
west coast of India
(Analysis of 100
years of data; 1901-
2000).
Observed impacts in South Asia
Intense Rains and Floods
Serious and recurrent floods in Bangladesh,
Nepal and N-E India in 2002, 2003 and 2004
Rainfall in Mumbai (India), 2005: 1 million
people lost their homes
Droughts
50% of droughts associated with El Niño
Droughts in Orissa (India) in 2000-2002: crop
failures, mass starvation affecting 11 million
people
Cyclones / Typhoons
Increasing intensity of cyclones formation in Bay
of Bengal and Arabian Sea since 1970
Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar, 2008: 100, 000 deaths
Signals of Climate change
based on historic data
Climate Change Studies in India (1901-90)
Annual temp. of India. Thick line-five year Linear trend expressed as a percentage
of normal per 100 years, 1971-84 for Linear trend of mean annual
running mean monsoon rainfall. Hatched areas temp. (oC/100years). Shaded
indicates negative trend & stipped areas areas indicates significance at
indicates significance at 5% level 95% level
The temperatures are showing a decreasing trend in almost all the northern parts of the country (north of 23oN) and a rising trend in southern parts (south of
23oN).
Atmospheric pressure shows a fall between second and third decades but does not indicate any significant change after
1930.
Surface air temperature are found to be increasingly at the rate of 0.21oC per 100 years.
Maximum temperature - Trend in maximum termperature show warming by 0.4oC per 100 years based on all the 475
stations.
Minimum temperature - Trend in minimum temperature indicates an overall increase of 0.1oC/100 years
Linear trend(oC/decade) in mean temp. for 1940-90 Linear trend(oC/decade) in diurnal temp.range for
for different seasons over India based on 27 1940-90 for different seasons over India based on
stations (dots) Dot size is related to trend 27 stations (dots). Dot size is related to trend
Annual Ep anomalies (mm/day) between 1961 & 1992 wrt to the
1961-92 mean for three stations & for four seasons. Dashed
lines show best-fit linear trend
Anomaliesof average land surface maximum and minimum air temp. (oC)relative to their respective
mean (1901-2003) values in the two halves of the year over the whole of India. The smoothed curve is
obtained using 21-point binomial filter
Anomaliesof average land surface maximum and minimum air temp. (oC) relative to their
respective mean (1901-2003) values over northern parts of India. The smoothed curve is
obtained using 21-point binomial filter
Time series of rainfall in India during monsoon months of June-
September. The soild straight line indicates trend significant at
99% level
• Analysis of meteorological measurements in India
indicates large difference in trends in the minimum
temperature and cloud amounts between North and
South India.
• There is also asymmetry in the increasing temperature
trends between different seasons in a year.
• These observations along with the occurrence of
extreme weather events leads to the importance of
regional climate changes.
• The interplay between the aerosols, clouds and
mesoscale flows around Indian mountains in global
warming atmosphere may play a crucial role in the
regional climate in future.
Projection
of climate change in
India
Climate Projections
Av. Surface temperature : Increase by 2 - 4°C during 2050s
Monsoon Rainfall : Marginal changes in monsoon months (JJAS)
: Large changes during non-monsoon months
No. of rainy days : set to decrease by more than 15 days
Intensity of rains : to increase by 1-4 mm/day
Cyclonic storms : Increase in frequency and intensity of cyclonic
storms is projected
Calculated change (%) in mean seasonal PE
Calculated change (%) in mean seasonal PE for 1oC of for 1oC of global warming for the GFDL
global warming for the CCC experiment. Shaded boxes are experiment
those selected for analysis of the energy and
aerodynamices components of Penman PE
Freshwater Availability:
Decreased river flows after glaciers recede; will decrease.
Floods:
Glacier melt in Himalayas; sea level rise in deltas
Crop yield:
Increase up to 20% in E and SE; decrease up to 30% in S and
central Asia by 2050; hunger risk high
Impacts on Indian Agriculture –Literature
75
70
Production , Mtons
65
60
55
50
45
40
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Year
Source:
Source:
Aggarwal,
Lal etIARI
al., 2001
Boundary changes for Productivity of
Irrigated Wheat
Predicted climate change impacts on agriculture
Wheat Production
The study found that increase in temperature (by about 20C) reduced
potential grain yields in most places. Regions with higher potential
productivity (such as northern India) were relatively less impacted by
climate change than areas with lower potential productivity (the reduction
in yields was much smaller).
Dry savannah
Xeric Shrub land
Xeric woodland
Tropical Seasonal
Forest
Boreal Evergreen
Tundra
Adaptation to Climate Change
Adaptive capacity to multiple
stressors in India
District-level vulnerability
Lowest Double exposed
Low Urban districts
Medium Missing data
High
Highest
Response of Farming System
Crops have to cope with increased variability of
weather, extreme events, and changing climate
patterns throughout the growing season.
Agriculture may learn to adapt to climate change
but climate variability needs to be combated.
The frequency of occurrence of extreme climate
conditions dictates the response of agriculture to
climate variability/change.
Agriculture to Combat Increased
Variability in Weather & Climate
• Heat / Cold Wave
Vulnerability assessments;
Finacial needs assessments;
Capacity building and response strategies;
Integration of aaadaptation actions into sectoral and
national
planning;and
The development of risk management and risk
reduction
strategies, including insurance, and disaster reduction
strategies.
The broad areas where adaptation programme have been
developed include:
Crop Improvement
Risk financing
Drought Proofing
Disaster Management
Adaptations to Climate Change
TIER 2
National Agro Met
Service HQ (Execution)
TIER 3
State Agro Met Centres~28
coordination/monitoring
TIER 4
AMFUs
Agro Climatic Zone Level ~ 127 Drivers of Integration-
Need for Crop specific
TIER 5 District Level Advisory
District Level Extension & Training and Village Level Outreach.
Input management as advisory
Jodha (1989) using observations of adoption and technological
response in post-independent Indian agriculture estimated
response time of 5-15 years for items such as productive life of
farm assets, crop rotation cycles, and recovery from major
disasters.
Broad categories of responses - some of which could be beneficial
regardless of how or whether climate changes - include: