Assessment of Flood Affected Population

Using Geo-Spatial Data Modelling Techniques

A Case of Monsoon Floods, Sindh Province, Pakistan

Introduction Data and Methods

Pakistan is a disaster prone country and encounters various natural or anthropogenic This study demonstrates the use of geo-spatial data analysis in disaster response and
disasters every year which result in huge human, economic and financial losses. management. A geo-spatial model assesses the flood-affected population in near real
Floods are the major cause of these losses. The 2010 monsoon floods were the worst time scenarios and gives almost a daily update of the population living in flooded
in Pakistan’s recorded history, and were followed by further flooding in the south of areas through the use of available spatial datasets particularly daily satellite images
the country only one year later. Securing timely information on the affected from MODIS Satellite, LandScan Population distribution grid and administrative
population is vital to planning a humanitarian response and optimally allocating boundaries at the provincial level. Weather permitting, MODIS data from Aqua and
available resources. Typically, this follows on-the-ground assessments and is often Terra sensors were interpreted on a daily basis to obtain the geographic extent of the
too late to contribute to initial planning. The current system of assessing the flooding. This was then superimposed onto a population distribution grid to
affected population is not making the best use of available technology, especially the determine the number of people living within flooded areas, with the regularity of
power of geo-spatial data analysis to address such problems. updates reflecting the evolution of the situation.
Results Province
Boundary
MODIS
(Aqua)
In the case of riverine flooding, the methodology proved to be both time- and cost- Zonal
Affected
Population
efficient, and greatly facilitated humanitarian response planning. The model was Spatial
Flood
Statistics
as table
by Province
(Table)
tested against ground assessment data and demonstrated 80-90% accuracy. The Algorithm
Extent
(Vector)
proposed model can be used for any rivirine flood with a confidence of ±10%. Affected
MODIS Population
16 (Terra) Clip
Water Recession Monitoring Distribution
Thousands Sq Km

14 Flood2011 - Affected (Raster)

Population
12 Population in Sindh Distribution
Error
10 Estimation Surveyed (Raster)

8 from Model data

6 Acknowledgments
5,751,116 5,441,869 5.68%
4
2 Technical support from Emergency Preparedness and Response Branch of WFP and
0
ITHACA during this study is very much appreciated. Flood extents extracted by
10-Aug 16-Nov 29-Feb UNOSAT for the same area were also used to validate the image interpretations.

Conclusion
The model is useful in situations where water remains in place for 24 hours or more
so as to be easily detected. Cloud cover is another issue during the monsoon season
which can impede the analysis. The model is not recommended for micro planning Contact
because of its coarse spatial resolution (1Km for population distribution and 250m for
satellite data). While proper planning requires social indicators best collected via Syed Fawad Raza Dr. Sajid Rasheed
field surveys, the model does provide a good estimate of affected populations which (Programme Officer – Spatial Analyst) Assistant Professor
is crucial to initial planning and resource allocation immediately after the onset of a United Nations World Food Programme, Pakistan Institute of Geology, The University of
flood. E-Mail: fawad.raza@wfp.org Cell: +92-3468563427 Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan

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