Forecasting

Main article: Earthquake forecasting

While forecasting is usually considered to be a type of prediction, earthquake forecasting is often
differentiated from earthquake prediction. Earthquake forecasting is concerned with the probabilistic
assessment of general earthquake hazard, including the frequency and magnitude of damaging
earthquakes in a given area over years or decades.[68] For well-understood faults the probability that
a segment may rupture during the next few decades can be estimated.[69][70]
Earthquake warning systems have been developed that can provide regional notification of an
earthquake in progress, but before the ground surface has begun to move, potentially allowing
people within the system's range to seek shelter before the earthquake's impact is felt.

Preparedness
The objective of earthquake engineering is to foresee the impact of earthquakes on buildings and
other structures and to design such structures to minimize the risk of damage. Existing structures
can be modified by seismic retrofitting to improve their resistance to earthquakes. Earthquake
insurance can provide building owners with financial protection against losses resulting from
earthquakes.
Emergency management strategies can be employed by a government or organization to mitigate
risks and prepare for consequences.

Measuring and locating earthquakes

Main articles: Seismic scale and Seismology
The instrumental scales used to describe the size of an earthquake began with the Richter
magnitude scale in the 1930s. It is a relatively simple measurement of an event's amplitude, and its
use has become minimal in the 21st century. Seismic waves travel through the Earth's interior and
can be recorded by seismometers at great distances. The surface wave magnitude was developed
in the 1950s as a means to measure remote earthquakes and to improve the accuracy for larger
events. The moment magnitude scalemeasures the amplitude of the shock, but also takes into
account the seismic moment (total rupture area, average slip of the fault, and rigidity of the rock).
The Japan Meteorological Agency seismic intensity scale, the Medvedev–Sponheuer–Karnik scale,
and the Mercalli intensity scale are based on the observed effects and are related to the intensity of
shaking.
Every tremor produces different types of seismic waves, which travel through rock with different
velocities:

 Longitudinal P-waves (shock- or pressure waves)

 Transverse S-waves (both body waves)
 Surface waves — (Rayleigh and Love waves)
Propagation velocity of the seismic waves ranges from approx. 3 km/s up to 13 km/s, depending on
the density and elasticity of the medium. In the Earth's interior the shock- or P waves travel much
faster than the S waves (approx. relation 1.7 : 1). The differences in travel time from the epicenter to
the observatory are a measure of the distance and can be used to image both sources of quakes
and structures within the Earth. Also, the depth of the hypocenter can be computed roughly.
In solid rock P-waves travel at about 6 to 7 km per second; the velocity increases within the deep
mantle to ~13 km/s. The velocity of S-waves ranges from 2–3 km/s in light sediments and 4–5 km/s
in the Earth's crust up to 7 km/s in the deep mantle. As a consequence, the first waves of a distant
earthquake arrive at an observatory via the Earth's mantle.
On average, the kilometer distance to the earthquake is the number of seconds between the P and
S wave times 8.[46] Slight deviations are caused by inhomogeneities of subsurface structure. By such
analyses of seismograms the Earth's core was located in 1913 by Beno Gutenberg.
S waves and later arriving surface waves do main damage compared to P waves. P wave squeezes
and expands material in the same direction it is traveling. S wave shakes the ground up and down
and back and forth.[47]
Earthquakes are not only categorized by their magnitude but also by the place where they occur.
The world is divided into 754 Flinn–Engdahl regions (F-E regions), which are based on political and
geographical boundaries as well as seismic activity. More active zones are divided into smaller F-E
regions whereas less active zones belong to larger F-E regions.
Standard reporting of earthquakes includes its magnitude, date and time of occurrence, geographic
coordinates of its epicenter, depth of the epicenter, geographical region, distances to population
centers, location uncertainty, a number of parameters that are included in USGS earthquake reports
(number of stations reporting, number of observations, etc.), and a unique event ID.[48]
Although relatively slow seismic waves have traditionally been used to detect earthquakes, scientists
realized in 2016 that gravitational measurements could provide instantaneous detection of
earthquakes, and confirmed this by analyzing gravitational records associated with the 2011
Tohoku-Oki ("Fukushima") earthquake.[49][50]

Philippine Institute of Volcanology and

Seismology
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Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology

Surian ng PilipinassaBulkanolohiya at Sismolohiya

 Agency overview

Formed 17 September 1982

(35 years ago)

 Commission on Volcanology (COMVOL)

Preceding
 Philippine Institute of Volcanology (PHIVOLC)
agencies

Jurisdiction Philippines

Headquarters C.P. Garcia Avenue, UPCampus, Diliman, Quezon

City
14°39′6.94″N121°3′30.68″E


Agency executive Usec. Renato U. Solidum Jr., Director

Parent agency Department of Science and Technology

Website www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph

The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Filipino: Surian ng

PilipinassaBulkanolohiya at Sismolohiya)[1]abbreviated as PHIVOLCS) is a Philippine national
institution dedicated to provide information on the activities of volcanoes, earthquakes,
and tsunamis, as well as other specialized information and services primarily for the protection of life
and property and in support of economic, productivity, and sustainable development. It is one of the
service agencies of the Department of Science and Technology.
PHIVOLCS monitors volcano, earthquake, and tsunami activity, and issues warnings as necessary.
It is mandated to mitigate disasters that may arise from such volcanic
eruptions, earthquakes, tsunamis, and other related geotectonic phenomena.[2]

Contents
[hide]

 1History
 2Classification of volcanoes in the Philippines
 o 2.1Active
o 2.2Potentially active
o 2.3Inactive
 3See also
 4References
 5External links

History[edit]
This government organization was formed after a historical merging of official functions of
government institutions.
One of its first predecessors is the Philippine Weather Bureau created in 1901 when meteorological,
seismological and terrestiial magnetic services of the Manila Observatory were transferred from the
Roman Catholic Church to the American Colonial Government. It performed earthquake monitoring
in the country and has inherited and maintained the early earthquake catalogue at that time. By
1972, the Philippine Weather Bureau was reorganized under Presidential Decree No. 78 into the
Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). A UNDP-
funded project for PAGASA established a twelve-station earthquake monitoring network in the
country.
The other predecessor to PHIVOLCS, the Commission on Volcanology (COMVOL) was created on
June 20, 1952 by Republic Act no. 766 after the disastrous eruption of Hibok-Hibok Volcano in 1952.
Under Executive Order no. 784 of March 17, 1982, the umbrella department of COMVOL, the
National Science Development Board (NSDB) was reorganized into the National Science and
Technology Authority (NSTA), and COMVOL was restructured to become the Philippine Institute of
Volcanology or PHILVOLC.
The seismological arm of PAGASA was officially transferred to PHILVOLC on September 17, 1984,
renaming the institute as the Philippines Institute of Volcanology and Seismology or PHIVOLCS.
NSTA, the umbrella department for PHIVOLCS and PAGASA, became the Department of Science
and Technology (DOST) in 1987. The technical staff and the 12-station earthquake monitoring
network was fully integrated to PHIVOLCS in 1988.
PHIVOLCS was headed by Raymundo Punongbayan from 1982 to 2003, and it is currently headed
by Renato U. Solidum Jr. from 2003 to the present.

Classification of volcanoes in the Philippines[edit]

In 1984, pyroclastic flows descend the south-eastern flank of Mayon Volcano, the most activevolcano in the
Philippines
The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology provides a classification system for the
volcanoes of the country.[3]
Active[edit]
Main article: List of active volcanoes in the Philippines

 Eruption in historic times

 Historical record within 600 years
 Radiocarbon dating (C14) dating to 10,000 years
 Local seismic activity
 Oral or folkloric history
Potentially active[edit]

Mt. Arayat, an inactive volcano in the Philippines.

Main article: List of potentially active volcanoes in the Philippines

 Active solfataras, fumaroles, or steaming activity

 Geologically young, possibly erupted < 10,000 years and for calderas and large systems,
possibly < 25,000 years.
 Young-looking geomorphology (thin soil cover or sparse vegetation; low degree of erosion and
dissection; young vent features; with or without vegetation cover).
 Suspected seismic activity.
 Documented local ground deformation.
 Geochemical indicators of magmatic involvement.
 Geophysical proof of magma bodies.
 Strong connection with subduction zones and external tectonic settings.
Inactive[edit]
Main article: List of inactive volcanoes in the Philippines

 No record of eruption and its form is beginning to change by the agents of weathering
and erosion via formation of deep and long gullies.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/237380391_Role_of_Non-
Government_Organizations_in_Earthquake_Disaster_Management_An_Asian_Perspective

National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC)

NEIC Location

1711 Illinois Street

(on the Colorado School of Mines Campus).

Our mailing address is:

U.S.Geological Survey
National Earthquake Information Center
Box 25046 MS 966
Denver Federal Center
Denver, Colorado 80225-0046

NEIC: 303-273-8500
 National Earthquake Information Center building

About the NEIC

The National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC), was established in Rockville, Maryland, in 1966 as part of
the National Ocean Survey of the Department of Commerce. The Coast and Geodetic Survey, a forerunner of
the National Ocean Survey, had coordinated the collection of seismological data in the United States for many
years. The NEIC was transferred to Boulder, Colorado, in 1972 and made part of the U.S. Geological Survey in
1973. The NEIC was moved again in 1974 to its present location in Golden, Colorado.

The National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC), a part of the Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological
Survey, is located in Golden, Colorado, 10 miles west of Denver. The NEIC has three main missions. First, the
NEIC determines, as rapidly and as accurately as possible, the location and size of all significant earthquakes
that occur worldwide. The NEIC disseminates this information immediately to concerned national and
international agencies, scientists, critical facilities, and the general public. Second, the NEIC collects and
provides to scientists and to the public an extensive seismic database that serves as a solid foundation for
scientific research, principally through the operation of modern digital national and global seismograph
networks and through cooperative international agreements. The NEIC is the national data center and archive
for earthquake information. Third, the NEIC pursues an active research program to improve its ability to locate
earthquakes and to understand the earthquake mechanism. These efforts are all aimed at mitigating the risks
of earthquakes to mankind; and they are made possible by the fine international cooperation that has long
characterized the science of seismology.

The NEIC operates a 24-hour-a-day service to determine the location and magnitude of significant earthquakes
in the United States and around the world as rapidly and accurately as possible. This information is
communicated to federal and state government agencies who are responsible for emergency response, to
government public information channels, to national and international news media, to scientific groups
(including groups planning aftershock studies), and to private citizens who request information. When a
damaging earthquake occurs in a foreign country, the earthquake information is passed to the staffs of the
American embassies and consulates in the affected countries and to the United Nations Department of
Humanitarian Affairs (DHA). The NEIC issues rapid reports for those earthquakes with magnitudes at least 3.0
in the eastern United States, 3.0 in the western United States, or 5.0 (or are known to have caused damage)
anywhere else in the world. At the present time, the NEIC staff locates and publishes approximately 30,000
earthquakes on a yearly basis. These are the most important of the many million earthquakes which are
estimated to occur each year.
 Waverly J. Person - first spokesperson for NEIC,
starting with Great Alaska Earthquake in 1964 and continuing for more than 40 years. Known by many people
in the news media as Mr. Earthquake.

The NEIC collects data through the operation of national and global networks, and through cooperative
agreements. To enable the detection and location of all felt earthquakes with the U.S., the NEIC acts as the
National Operations Center of the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS), a cooperative venture between
the NEIC and the operators of the regional seismic networks across the United States. The NEIC also relies on
the cooperation of a variety of seismic reporting networks throughout the world to gather data. The NEIC also
collects non-instrumental reports of the effects of earthquakes on people and man-made structures and
prepares isoseismal maps showing the distribution of intensities in widely felt or damaging shocks.

The data that are collected by the NEIC are published in a variety of formats and publications and are available
electronically via the Internet. The "Quick Epicenter Determinations" (QED), a very preliminary list of
earthquakes, is computed daily. The "Preliminary Determination of Epicenters" (PDE) is published weekly and
monthly. The "Earthquake Data Report" (EDR), also a monthly publication, provides additional and more
detailed information, mainly for the use of seismologists.

A wide range of research is also conducted at the NEIC. Investigations range from resolving the internal
structure of the Earth and understanding the mechanics of earthquake rupture through rapid assessment of an
earthquake's impact. These research efforts are intended to improve the data service provided by the NEIC to
the scientific community and the general public; and, ultimately, to aid in earthquake hazard mitigation.