y = b1x + b0

b1 = cov(x,y) stdDev(x)/stdDev(y)

b1 is proportional to correlation

correlation is about association but doesn’t help predict

covariance —> Correlation —> regression

residual sum of squares

error sum of squares

TSS
RSS
ESS

GRG non linear

coefficients are point estimates

R square -> total variance explained

in single variable model F and T test brings the same thing

sales = a + b1(Ads) + b2(Price)

Ho : b1 = 0
H1 : b1 not 0

Ho : b1 = 0 , b2 = 0
H1 : b1 not 0 OR b2 not 0

F test for model level T test at variable level

P(actual error) less than Alpha(allowed error) -> reject H0

T test reveals which coefficient is non zero
HAT is fitted value

Tail test

model to give least variance on the test data.

Bias -> how much model doesn’t fit the historical data

Multiple regression model is about partial correlation coefficient.

Uncorrelated
Regression in two stages … get the residual and run regression

KNN logistic regression decision tree

to have a very good model you need variable with large variance .
Larger the variance , standard error is low.

Logistic Regression :

KNN impact of X on Y needs to be understood

model doesn’t tell the above.

explanatory modeling (impact of X on Y is known)

predictive modeling (classifying … how is to important)

Maximum likelihood scenario for logistic regression

variance comes down with correlation

31 Aug
SVM :

Hyperplane = inputs *
separate classes by drawing hyoerplane.
Draw a hyperplane such that the margins are maximized

Functional Margin -

Geometric Margin -