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Proceedings, Soil and Rock America 2003, 12th Panamerican Conference on Soil Mechanics and

Geotechnical Engineering and 39th U.S. Rock Mechanics Symposium, M.I.T., Cambridge,
Massachusetts, June 22-26, 2003, Verlag Glückauf GmbH Essen, Vol. 2, pp.2777-2784.

Practical Probabilistic Slope Stability Analysis


B. K. Low
Associate Professor, School of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
639798

Abstract
A practical procedure is described for implementing Spencer’s method of slices with varying side force inclination.
The search for the noncircular critical slip surface is accomplished using spreadsheet-automated constrained
optimization. The deterministic formulation is then extended probabilistically to compute the Hasofer-Lind
reliability index via constrained optimization of the dispersion hyperellipsoid in the original space of the random
variables. Reliability analyses involving spatially correlated normal and lognormal random variables are
illustrated for an embankment on soft ground, with search for the reliability-based noncircular critical slip surface.
The probabilities of failure and the probability density functions inferred from reliability indices are compared with
Monte Carlo simulations. It is demonstrated that the hitherto complicated problems of locating noncircular critical
surface and reliability analysis involving implicit functions and correlated nonnormals can be solved with relative
ease and transparency using cell-object-oriented constrained optimization in the ubiquitous spreadsheet platform.

The next page shows Figure 1 of the paper, followed by two “guidance” sheets for creating the template of
Figure 1, and Section 2 of the paper. (The guidance sheets are not part of the paper. They are provided here
by the author in response to readers’ enquiries.)

Going through the procedures in the “guidance” sheets and reading the paper’s section 2 will give a better
appreciation of the constrained optimization approach for Spencer’s method (with automatic search for
critical circular and critical noncircular slip surfaces, for both deterministic and probabilistic approaches.)

To benefit from the experience, users should build up Figure 1 from scratch, and understand the physical
meanings of the formulas in the first “guidance” sheet, by relating the formulas to the seven equations in
Section 2 of the paper. Emphasis is on understanding the mechanics and process, and acquiring versatile
advanced spreadsheet techniques (including simple VBA skill, Solver optimization, array formulas ...) useful
beyond the slope stability context of the paper. The pedagogic objective is achieved when the worksheet is
set-up with understanding. It also affords adaptability and refinement. Interfaces and further automation can
also be done, but with some loss of transparency.

Note: When analyzing another case with different soil profile or water regime, the VBA functions Slice_c(… )
and AveGamma(…) in the paper’s Section 2 and equations in columns φ and u can be modified accordingly.

This 5-page PDF is downloadable from http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/cbklow, together with other information.

The full 8-page paper (PDF file) is also available at the same URL.
A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R
1 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 SPENCER method λ′ F DumEq
2 10
Embankment 0.105 1.287 1.287
3 x0 λi-1Ei-1
5 ytop
4 Wi ΣM ΣForces Varying λ
xn
Ω λiEi Ei-1
5 0 0.00 0.00 TRUE
6 Soft clay
-5 ybot Ei Array formulas
7 l Ti
8 -10
αi Varying side-force angle λ
9 slope angle Pi λ
10 Ω H hc γw Pw Mw ru xc yc R xmin xmax
11 27 5 1.73 10 15 61.518 0.2 4.91 7.95 13.40 -5.89 17.467
xn x0
12
Units: m, kN/m , kN/m , kN,
3 2 Center of Rotation  (xi − x0 ) 
13 λ = λ ′ sin  π
 (xn − x0 ) 
or other consistent set of units.
14 framed cells contain equations
15 # x ybot ytop γave c φ W αrad u l P T E λ σ' Lx Ly
16 0 17.47 3.27 5.00 15 0.000
17 1 16.58 1.37 5.00 20.00 10.00 30 47.4 1.136 10.73 2.10 49.72 28.50 48.1 0.012 12.98 12.12 5.63
18 2 15.70 0.00 5.00 20.00 10.00 30 76.3 0.997 17.27 1.63 80.96 36.36 96.3 0.025 32.49 11.24 7.26
19 3 14.72 -1.18 5.00 19.58 35.26 0 107.4 0.879 21.89 1.54 112.01 42.14 155.7 0.038 50.94 10.30 8.54
20 4 13.74 -2.14 5.00 19.00 27.15 0 124.2 0.770 25.31 1.37 137.12 28.84 230.5 0.050 74.97 9.32 9.61
21 5 12.76 -2.92 5.00 18.66 22.52 0 137.8 0.673 28.09 1.25 149.26 21.95 306.3 0.062 90.90 8.34 10.47
22 6 11.78 -3.56 5.00 18.43 20.00 0 149.0 0.582 30.37 1.17 156.36 18.25 377.0 0.072 102.75 7.36 11.19
23 7 10.79 -4.10 5.00 18.27 20.00 0 158.3 0.496 32.25 1.12 160.90 17.34 438.4 0.082 111.92 6.38 11.78
24 8 9.81 -4.53 5.00 18.15 20.00 0 165.8 0.415 33.80 1.07 165.06 16.66 489.6 0.090 120.14 5.40 12.26
25 9 8.83 -4.87 4.50 18.01 20.00 0 167.0 0.336 34.04 1.04 164.03 16.15 528.5 0.096 123.77 4.42 12.64
26 10 7.85 -5.13 4.00 17.84 20.00 0 161.9 0.259 33.00 1.02 158.16 15.78 553.8 0.101 122.79 3.43 12.95
27 11 6.87 -5.31 3.50 17.67 20.66 0 155.6 0.184 31.71 1.00 152.37 16.03 565.9 0.103 120.93 2.45 13.17
28 12 5.89 -5.42 3.00 17.51 21.10 0 148.1 0.110 30.18 0.99 146.54 16.19 565.9 0.105 118.26 1.47 13.31
29 13 4.91 -5.46 2.50 17.34 21.32 0 139.4 0.037 28.41 0.98 140.44 16.27 554.8 0.104 114.61 0.49 13.39
30 14 3.93 -5.42 2.00 17.17 21.32 0 129.6 -0.037 26.41 0.98 133.80 16.27 533.7 0.101 109.85 -0.49 13.39
31 15 2.94 -5.31 1.50 16.98 21.10 0 118.6 -0.110 24.18 0.99 126.36 16.19 503.7 0.097 103.81 -1.47 13.31
32 16 1.96 -5.13 1.00 16.77 20.66 0 106.5 -0.184 21.71 1.00 117.86 16.03 466.3 0.091 96.36 -2.45 13.17
33 17 0.98 -4.87 0.50 16.52 20.00 0 93.2 -0.259 19.00 1.02 107.99 15.78 423.4 0.083 87.37 -3.43 12.95
34 18 0.00 -4.53 0.00 16.20 20.00 0 78.7 -0.336 16.04 1.04 96.74 16.15 376.3 0.074 77.03 -4.42 12.64
35 19 -0.98 -4.10 0.00 16.00 20.00 0 67.7 -0.415 13.80 1.07 89.12 16.66 325.1 0.064 69.32 -5.40 12.26
36 20 -1.96 -3.56 0.00 16.00 20.00 0 60.1 -0.496 12.25 1.12 85.34 17.34 269.2 0.053 64.22 -6.38 11.78
37 21 -2.94 -2.92 0.00 16.00 20.00 0 50.9 -0.582 10.37 1.17 79.74 18.25 210.1 0.040 57.52 -7.36 11.19
38 22 -3.93 -2.14 0.00 16.00 22.52 0 39.7 -0.673 8.09 1.25 73.92 21.95 146.9 0.027 50.84 -8.34 10.47
39 23 -4.91 -1.18 0.00 16.00 27.15 0 26.1 -0.770 5.31 1.37 68.39 28.84 78.6 0.014 44.70 -9.32 9.61
40 24 -5.89 0.00 0.00 16.00 35.26 0 9.3 -0.879 1.89 1.54 67.12 42.14 0.0 0.000 41.75 -10.30 8.54
41
42 cu (kPa)
43 Undrained shear strength profile of soft clay 0 25 50 Embankment
44 depth 0 1.5 3 5 7 10 (m) 0 cm φm γm
45 cu 40 28 20 20 26 37 (kPa) 2 10 30 20
o 3
46 4 (kPa) ( ) (kN/m )
Depth

47
6
48 γclay
(kN/m ) 3 8
49 16
50 10

Figure 1. Deterministic analysis of a 5 m high embankment on soft ground with depth-dependent undrained
shear strength. The limit equilibrium method of slices is based on Spencer (1973), with half-sine variation of
side force inclination.
where v is a vector representing the set of random
Guidance for creating the paper's Figure 1 Excel template. cbklow@ntu.edu.sg

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R
1 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 SPENCER method λ′ F DumEq
2 10 0.105 1.287 1.287
Embankment
3
5 ytop
x0 λi-1Ei-1
4 ΣM ΣForces Varying λ
xn
Ω λiEi Wi
Ei-1
5 0 0.00 0.00 TRUE
6 Soft clay
-5 ybot Ei Array formulas
7 l Ti
8 -10
αi Varying side-force angle λ
9 slope angle Pi λ
10 Ω H hc γw Pw Mw ru xc yc R xmin xmax
11 27 5 1.73 10 15 61.518 0.2 4.91 7.95 13.40 -5.89 17.467
xn x0
12 Center of Rotation ⎡ ( xi − x0 ) ⎤
13 λ = λ ′ sin ⎢ π⎥
⎣ ( xn − x0 ) ⎦
3 2
Units: m, kN/m , kN/m , kN,
14 or other consistent set of units. framed cells contain equations
15 # x ybot ytop γave c φ W αrad u l P T E λ σ' Lx Ly
16 0 17.47 3.27 5.00 15 0.000
17 1 16.58 1.37 5.00 20.00 10.00 30 47.4 1.136 10.73 2.10 49.72 28.50 48.1 0.012 12.98 12.12 5.63
18 2 15.70 0.00
Formulas: 5.00 20.00
hc = 2*c10.00 30√Ka), 76.3Pw0.997
m/(γm 17.27
= 0.5*γ 1.63 80.96
w*hc^2, Mw = P w*(yc−H+0.6667*h
36.36 96.3 0.025 32.49
c) 11.24 7.26
19 3 14.72 -1.18 5.00 19.58 35.26 0 107.4 0.879 21.89 1.54 112.01
(Note: Ka =(1-sin(radians(phim)))/(1+sin(radians(phim))), in separate cell) 42.14 155.7 0.038 50.94 10.30 8.54
4 13.74 x-2.14 5.00 19.00 27.15 0 124.2
xmax 0.770 25.31 1.37 −H+h
137.12 )^2))+x
28.84 230.5 0.050 74.97 9.32 9.61
min = −√(abs(R^2−yc^2))+xc, = √(abs(R^2−(y
20 c c c
21 5 12.76 -2.92 5.00 18.66 22.52 0 137.8 0.673 28.09 1.25 149.26 21.95 306.3 0.062 90.90 8.34 10.47
x0 = xmax, x2 = xc+√(abs(R^2-yc^2)), x1 = (B16+B18)/2
22 6 11.78 -3.56 5.00 18.43 20.00 0 149.0 0.582 30.37 1.17 156.36 18.25 377.0 0.072 102.75 7.36 11.19
x3 = B18-($B$18-xmin)/22, drag downwards to autofill.
23 7 10.79 -4.10 5.00 18.27 20.00 0 158.3 0.496 32.25 1.12 160.90 17.34 438.4 0.082 111.92 6.38 11.78
24 8 9.81 bot0= −√(abs(R^2-(B16−x
y-4.53 5.00 18.15 20.00 0c
)^2))+y , autofill.
165.8c 0.415 33.80 1.07 165.06 16.66 489.6 0.090 120.14 5.40 12.26
25 9 8.83 (Columns
-4.87 4.50 ytop, γave 20.00
18.01 and c 0invoke the 0.336
167.0 user-defined
34.04 functions
1.04 164.03 shown in Fig.0.096
16.15 528.5 2 of paper.)
123.77 4.42 12.64
26 10 7.85 γ-5.13
ave1 = AveGamma(0.5*(D16+D17),0.5*(C16+C17),γ
4.00 17.84 20.00 0 161.9 0.259 33.00 1.02 ,γ
158.16
m clay ) 15.78 553.8 0.101 122.79 3.43 12.95
27 11 6.87 c-5.31
1 = 3.50 17.67 20.66 0 155.6
Slice_c(0.5*(C16+C17),max(dv),dv,cuv,cm), 0.184 31.71 1.00
or 152.37 16.03 565.9 0.103 120.93
Insert/Function/Category/UserDefined. 2.45 13.17
12
28 φ5.89 -5.42 3.00 17.51 21.10 0 148.1 0.110 30.18 0.99 146.55 16.19 565.9
1 = IF(0.5*(C16+C17)>0, $Q$45,0), autofill (also for the formulas below .)
0.105 118.26 1.47 13.31
29 13 4.91 -5.46 2.50 17.34 21.32 0 139.4 0.037 28.41 0.98 140.44 16.27 554.8 0.104 114.61 0.49 13.39
W 1 = (B16-B17)*0.5*((D16-C16)+(D17-C17))*E17,
30 14 3.93 -5.42 2.00 17.17 21.32 0 129.6 -0.037 26.41 0.98 133.80 16.27 533.7 0.101 109.85 -0.49 13.39
αrad1 =ATAN((C16-C17)/(B16-B17))
31 15 2.94 -5.31 1.50 16.98 21.10 0 118.6 -0.110 24.18 0.99 126.36 16.19 503.7 0.097 103.81 -1.47 13.31
32 16
u1.96
1 =ru*E17*0.5*(D16-C16+D17-C17),
-5.13 1.00 16.77 20.66 0
l 1 =(B16-B17)/COS(I17)
106.5 -0.184 21.71 1.00 117.86 16.03 466.3 0.091 96.36 -2.45 13.17
33 17 Enter
0.98 formulas
-4.87 0.50for 16.52
P and20.00
T as shown
0 in paper.
93.2 -0.259 (Equation
19.00 1.02of107.99
P is long,
15.78 may
423.4use 0.083
VBA coding)
87.37 -3.43 12.95
34 18 E0.00
0 = Pw ,
-4.53 E1 =16.20
0.00 N16+L17*SIN(I17)-M17*COS(I17)
20.00 0 78.7 -0.336 16.04 1.04 96.74 16.15 376.3 0.074 77.03 -4.42 12.64
35 19 0=0, -4.10λ1=IF($R$5,$N$2*SIN(($B$16-B17)/($B$16-$B$40)*PI()),$N$2)
λ-0.98 0.00 16.00 20.00 0 67.7 -0.415 13.80 1.07 89.12 16.66 325.1 0.064 69.32 -5.40 12.26
36 20 σ′
-1.96
= (P/l − u),0.00 Lx116.00
-3.56 20.00 0 60.1 -0.496
= 0.5*(B16+B17)−xc, 12.25 1.12 85.34 17.34
Ly1 =yc−0.5*(C16+C17), 269.2 = F*1
DumEq 0.053 64.22 -6.38 11.78
37 21 -2.94 -2.92 0.00 16.00 20.00 0 50.9 -0.582 10.37 1.17 79.74 18.25 210.1 0.040 57.52 -7.36 11.19
38 22 ΣM
-3.93=SUM((M17:M40*SIN(I17:I40)+L17:L40*COS(I17:I40)−H17:H40)*Q17:Q40+
-2.14 0.00 16.00 22.52 0 39.7 -0.673 8.09 1.25 73.92 21.95 146.9 0.027 50.84 -8.34 10.47
39 23 -4.91(M17:M40*COS(I17:I40)−L17:L40*SIN(I17:I40))*R17:R40)−F11,
-1.18 0.00 16.00 27.15 0 26.1 -0.770 5.31 1.37 68.39 28.84(Ctrl
78.6& Shift
0.014, then
44.70Enter )
-9.32 9.61
40 24 ΣForces
-5.89 =SUM(M17:M40*COS(I17:I40)−L17:L40*SIN(I17:I40))−E11,
0.00 0.00 16.00 35.26 0 9.3 -0.879 1.89 1.54 67.12 42.14(Ctrl0.0& Shift
0.000, then
41.75Enter )
-10.30 8.54
41 Initially λ′ = 0, F = 1, then invoke Excel's built-in Solver, see next page.
42 cu (kPa)
0 25 50
43 Undrained shear strength profile of soft clay Embankment
0
44 depth 0 1.5 3 5 7 10 (m) cm φm γm
2
45 cu 40 28 20 20 26 37 (kPa) 10 30 20
o
4 () (kN/m3)
Depth

46 (kPa)
47 dv 6
48 cuv γclay
8
49 16 (kN/m3) phim
50 10
51
Guidance (continued)

Run Excel’s built-in


Solver Parameters
Solver, to automatically
obtain the minimum F
and critical slip circle
shown in paper’s Fig. 1,
within seconds:
λ′ F
0.105 1.287

xc yc R
4.91 7.95 13.40

Critical noncircular
slip surface can also
be searched, as
explained in the paper,
to obtain a minimum
factor of safety (F) of
1.253.
The extension from deterministic factor-of-safety approach to the more
logical probabilistic approach is (computationally) relatively
straightforward and intuitive, as shown in the paper.
from Low (2003, 2001)

2 DETERMINISTIC SPENCER’S METHOD


obtained automatically within seconds by Solver via
The sketch in Figure 1 shows the forces acting on a cell-object-oriented constrained optimization.
slice that forms part of the potential sliding soil mass. Noncircular critical slip surface can also be searched
Adopting the same assumptions as Spencer (1973), using Solver as in Fig. 3, except that “By Changing
one can derive the following from Mohr-Coulomb Cells” are N2:O2, B16, B18, B40, C17, and C19:C39,
criterion and equilibrium considerations: and with the following additional cell constraints: B16
≥ B11/tan(radians(A11)), B16 ≥ B18, B40 ≤ 0,
′ ′
Ti = ⎡ci li + (Pi − ui li ) tan φi ⎤ F (1) C19:C39 ≤ D19:D39, O2 ≥ 0.1, and P17:P40 ≥ 0.
⎢⎣ ⎥⎦ Figure 4 tests the robustness of the search for
Ei = Ei −1 + Pi sin α i − Ti cos α i (2) noncircular critical surface. Starting from four
arbitrary initial circles, the final noncircular critical
⎡Wi − (λi − λi −1 )E i −1 ⎤ surfaces (solid curves, each with 25 degrees of
⎢ 1 ⎥ freedom) are close enough to each other, though not
⎢ − ⎛⎜ ci ′li − u i li tan φ i ′ ⎞⎟(sin α i − λi cos α i )⎥ identical. Perhaps more pertinent, their factors of
⎝ ⎠
Pi = ⎣ F ⎦ safety vary narrowly within 1.253 to 1.257. This
⎡λi sin α i + cos α i
compares with the minimum factor of safety 1.287 of
⎤ the critical circular surface of Fig. 1.
⎢ 1 ⎥
⎢ + tan φ i ′ (sin α i − λi cos α i )⎥ Function Slice_c(ybmid, dmax, dv, cuv, cm)
⎣ F ⎦ 'comment: dv = depth vector,
(3) ‘cuv = cu vector, Fig. 1.

∑ [T cosα − Pi sin α i ] − Pw = 0
If ybmid > 0 Then
i i (4) Slice_c = cm

⎡(Ti sin α i + Pi cos α i − Wi ) ∗ L xi ⎤


Exit Function

∑ ⎢+ (T cosα
End If
⎥ − M w = 0 (5)
i − Pi sin α i ) ∗ L yi
ybmid = Abs(ybmid)
⎣ i ⎦ If ybmid > dmax Then 'undefined domain,
L xi = 0.5( xi + xi −1 ) − xc (6) Slice_c = 300 'hence assume hard stratum.
Exit Function
L yi = y c − 0.5( y i + y i −1 ) (7) End If
For j = 2 To dv.Count 'array size=dv.Count
where Pw is the water thrust in a water-filled tension If dv(j) >= ybmid Then
crack, and Mw the overturning moment due to Pw. interp = (ybmid - dv(j - 1)) / (dv(j) - dv(j - 1))
Slice_c = cuv(j - 1) + (cuv(j) - cuv(j - 1)) * interp
Equations 4 and 5 specify overall force and moment
Exit For
equilibrium. Equations 6 and 7, required for End If
noncircular slip surface, give the lever arms with Next j
respect to an arbitrary center. End Function
Figure 1 shows the spreadsheet set-up for stability
analysis of a 5 m high embankment on soft ground. Function ytop(x, omega, H)
The undrained shear strength profile of the soft ground grad = Tan(omega * 3.14159 / 180)
is defined in rows 44 and 45. Formulas need be entered If x < 0 Then ytop = 0
only in the first or second cell (row 16 or 17) of each If x >= 0 And x < H / grad Then ytop = x * grad
column, followed by autofilling down to row 40. The If x >= H / grad Then ytop = H
columns labelled ytop, γave and c invoke the functions End Function
shown in Fig. 2, created via Tools/
Function AveGamma(ytmid, ybmid, gm, gclay)
Macro/VisualBasicEditor/Insert/Module on the Excel
If ybmid < 0 Then
worksheet menu. The dummy equation in cell P2 is Sum = (ytmid * gm + Abs(ybmid) * gclay)
equal to F*1. This cell, unlike cell O2, can be AveGamma = Sum / (ytmid - ybmid)
minimized because it contains a formula. Else: AveGamma = gm
Initially xc = 6, yc = 8, R = 12 in cells I11:K11, and End If
λ′ = 0, F = 1 in cells N2:O2. Microsoft Excel’s built-in End Function
Solver was then invoked to set target and constraints as
shown in Fig. 3. The Solver option “Use Automatic Figure 2 User-defined VBA functions, called by
Scaling” was also activated. The critical slip circle and columns ytop, γave, and c of Fig. 1.
factor of safety F = 1.287 shown in Fig. 1 were

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