Caudales de Sequia en m^3/seg

Analisis de sequia . Rio Chicama. Metodo de Gumbel

Muestra Total 30 Años
6.00

5.00
Xi(1) = 0.190+2.179*EXP(0.52*Wi)
4.00 Xi(2) = 0.190+2.119*EXP(0.52*Wi)

3.00

Datos reales
2.00

1.00

0.00
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0
Periodo de Retorno Tr en Años
Caudal.cal1Xi m^3/seg Caudal.Excel2Xi m^3/seg Xi (Medido ) m^3/seg
 FUNCION"tN" DEL TAMAÑO DE LA MUESTRA "N" Y PARAMETRO" L"
L
N (N° Años) 0.01 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90
10 1.78 1.72 1.62 1.55 1.51 1.41 1.30 1.22 1.12 1.04 0.96
20 2.30 2.24 2.14 1.96 1.79 1.62 1.50 1.34 1.23 1.14 1.02
40 2.85 2.71 2.58 2.28 2.04 1.79 1.63 1.43 1.30 1.17 1.06
60 3.14 2.98 2.80 2.44 2.14 1.86 1.67 1.46 1.31 1.19 1.09
80 3.37 3.17 2.96 2.56 2.22 1.93 1.69 1.50 1.35 1.20 1.10
100 3.54 3.31 3.07 2.62 2.26 1.97 1.71 1.52 1.36 1.21 1.11

CALCULO EQUACIONES
VALORES "L" ECUACIONES ESTIMADAS 10 20 40 60 80 100
0.01 y = 0.7652ln(x) + 0.0155 1.78 2.31 2.84 3.15 3.37 3.54
0.05 y = 0.6883ln(x) + 0.1565 1.74 2.22 2.70 2.97 3.17 3.33
0.10 y = 0.6264ln(x) + 0.2245 1.67 2.10 2.54 2.79 2.97 3.11
0.20 y = 0.4636ln(x) + 0.530 1.60 1.92 2.24 2.43 2.56 2.66
0.30 y = 0.3273ln(x) + 0.7895 1.54 1.77 2.00 2.13 2.22 2.30
0.40 y = 0.2402ln(x) + 0.880 1.43 1.60 1.77 1.86 1.93 1.99
0.50 y = 0.1739ln(x) + 0.9438 1.34 1.46 1.59 1.66 1.71 1.74
0.60 y = 0.1275ln(x) + 0.9427 1.24 1.32 1.41 1.46 1.50 1.53
0.70 y = 0.1004ln(x) + 0.9089 1.14 1.21 1.28 1.32 1.35 1.37
0.80 y = 0.0684ln(x) + 0.9067 1.06 1.11 1.16 1.19 1.21 1.22
0.90 y = 0.0636ln(x) + 0.8218 0.97 1.01 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.11
1.00 y = 0.0366ln(x) + 0.822 0.91 0.93 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.99

VALORES DEL PARAMETRO K=1/L

L K Yp/STDx L K
0.01 100.0 80.0 0.01 105.3
0.02 50.0 40.0 0.02 50.9
0.03 33.3 26.0 0.03 32.4
0.05 20.0 16.0 0.05 19.4
0.10 10.0 8.10 0.11 9.5
0.30 3.3 3.00 0.30 3.4
0.50 2.0 1.80 0.51 2.0
1.00 1.0 1.00 0.95 1.1
 VALORES DE "tN"
FIGURA 2:FUNCION "tN" DEL TAMAÑO DE LA MUESTRA "N" Y PARAMETRO "L"
4.00
1.00
0.90 3.50
0.94 3.00
0.96
0.97 2.50
0.98 2.00
0.99
1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00
10 100
NUMERO DE AÑOS DE REGISTRO "N
0.01 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.30
0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80
0.90 1.00
VA LO R ES D E L PA R A M E T R O " L "

FIGURA 3:VALORES DEL PARAMETRO K=1/L

1.00 100.0
f(x) = 1.0572077497
0.9458878827 x^1.0500163024
x^-1.0500163024
R²
R² =
= 0.9994287466
0.9994287466

0.10 10.0

0.01 1.0
1.0 10.0 100.0
VALORES DE "Yp/STDx"
AMETRO "L"

100

0.30
0.80

100.0

10.0

1.0
100.0
Caudales Minimos m^3/seg
Transito de Sequia Rio Chira.Periodo(Julio-Diciembre 2006-2009)
Estaciones de Aforo: Macacara y Miramar
20.00

18.00 Estacion n Qb Ecuacion de estimacion

Macacara 13 7.01
Qi=7.01+6.603*EXP(0.62*W)
16.00
Miramar 13 9.93 Qi=
9.93+4.38*SXP(0.87*W)
14.00
Miramar
12.00

10.00

8.00
Macacara
6.00 n ( meses de Registro)
Qi( Caudal pronedio mensual)
Qb( Caudal Base m^3/s)
4.00

2.00

0.00
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0
Tiempo de Retorno Meses
Calculados Calculados
 JIBITO ( m^3/seg)
Años Enero Febrero Marzo Abril Mayo Junio Julio Agosto Setiem
2005
2006
2007 13.58 9.86 7.62
2008 39.82 16.5
2009

MACACARA ( m^3/seg)
Años Enero Febrero Marzo Abril Mayo Junio Julio Agosto Setiem
2005
2006
2007 25.24 13.56 11.33 70.70 29.00 61.78 14.24 11.51 10.31
2008
2009 49.24 62.47 19.33

VARGAS MACHUCA ( m^3/seg)

Años Enero Febrero Marzo Abril Mayo Junio Julio Agosto Setiem
2005
2006
2007 27.52 17.74 14.26 53.60 38.57 63.87 21.61 17.78 17.86
2008 25.78 462.4 591.93 419.6 191.31 SD 65.94 SD 18.2
2009 36.76 49.2 28.93

ARENAL ( m^3/seg)
Años Enero Febrero Marzo Abril Mayo Junio Julio Agosto Setiem
2005
2006
2007 24.42 13.02 10.37 49.02 28.73 46.7 35.63 125.62 120.24
2008 172.85 280.39 322.43 233.07 155.92 96.69 69.09 46.46
2009

MIRAMAR ( m^3/seg)
Años Enero Febrero Marzo Abril Mayo Junio Julio Agosto Setiem
2005
2006
2007 29.00 18.37 12.45 73.13 39.42 72.55 16.06 11.28 12.21
2008 28.76 11.32 11.36 71.87 38.00 SD 39.38 19.11 10.37
2009 52.12 50.07 25.52

Julio Agosto Setiem

2006
 2007 13.58 9.86 7.62
2008 39.82 16.5

2006
2007 25.24 13.56 11.33 70.70 29.00 61.78 14.24 11.51 10.31
2008
2009 49.24 62.47 19.33

2006
2007 27.52 17.74 14.26 53.60 38.57 63.87 21.61 17.78 17.86
2008 25.78 462.4 591.93 419.6 191.31 SD 65.94 SD 18.2
2009 36.76 49.2 28.93

2006
2007 24.42 13.02 10.37 49.02 28.73 46.7 35.63 125.62 120.24
2008 172.85 280.39 322.43 233.07 155.92 96.69 69.09 46.46

2006
2007 29.00 18.37 12.45 73.13 39.42 72.55 16.06 11.28 12.21
2008 28.76 11.32 11.36 71.87 38.00 SD 39.38 19.11 10.37
2009 52.12 50.07 25.52

SEQUIA MACACARA

m Xi (Medido )P(Yi>yi )%P( Yi<=yi )%Tr (Meses Wi

) (Var.Red)Macacara Macacara
m^3/seg (1-P) % Medidos Calculados

1 19.33 7.14 92.86 1.1 0.9704 19.33 19.06

2 18.34 14.29 85.71 1.2 0.6657 18.34 16.99
3 16.78 21.43 78.57 1.3 0.4321 16.78 15.64
4 14.70 28.57 71.43 1.4 0.2254 14.70 14.60
5 14.24 35.71 64.29 1.6 0.0292 14.24 13.73
6 11.51 42.86 57.14 1.8 -0.1657 11.51 12.97
7 11.29 50.00 50.00 2.0 -0.3665 11.29 12.27
8 10.98 57.14 42.86 2.3 -0.5805 10.98 11.62
9 10.69 64.29 35.71 2.8 -0.8168 10.69 10.99
10 10.31 71.43 28.57 3.5 -1.0892 10.31 10.37
11 9.96 78.57 21.43 4.7 -1.4223 9.96 9.74
12 8.94 85.71 14.29 7.0 -1.8698 8.94 9.08
13 8.17 92.86 7.14 14.0 -2.6022 8.17 8.33

Calculado F.Gama.Inv.Excel
N 13 13 Macacara V.Machuca Miramar
Xp 12.71 50.00 T.Retorno Tr 1.582 1.582 1.582
STDx 3.62 27.82 Probabilid Φ( Yi <=y) 0.632 0.632 0.632
X1 (minimo) 8.17 P.Escala β 1.030 0.401 0.577
TNp=(Xp-X1)/STDx 1.26 P.forma γ 12.344 48.840 23.473
L.est.GRAF.2( TNp,N) 0.62 D.Gama.In Γ(Φ, γ, β) 13.610 20.422 14.319
E.est=X1-(Xp-X1)/(N^ 7.01
F.Gama Γ(1+L) 0.8959 Yp/STDy 1.797 6.60 8.40 4.39
Θ.est=(Xp-E)/F.G(1+L 13.373 L 0.500
Θ-E 6.603
Xi=E+(O-E)*EXP(L*W Xi (1) 7.01+(13.61-7.01)*EXP(0.62*Wi)7.01+6.603*EXP(0.62*W) Macacara
Xi (2) 12.02+(20.422-12.02)*EXP(0.34 12.02+8.34*EXP(0.34*W) V.Machuca
Xi (3) 9.93+(14.319-9.3)*EXP(0.86*W) 9.93+4.387*EXP(0.87*W) Miramar
Xi (4) 6.79+(86.34-6.79)*EXP(0.86*W) 6.79+79.549*EXP(0.86*W) Arenal

m Xi (Medido )P(Yi>yi )%P( Yi<=yi )%Tr (Meses Wi

) (Var.Red) Arenal
m^3/seg (1-P) % m^3/seg

1 183.39 8.33 91.67 1.1 0.9102 182.72

2 174.57 16.67 83.33 1.2 0.5832 139.09
3 125.62 25.00 75.00 1.3 0.3266 112.57
4 120.24 33.33 66.67 1.5 0.0940 93.14
5 86.12 41.67 58.33 1.7 -0.1330 77.62
6 69.02 50.00 50.00 2.0 -0.3665 64.55
7 46.46 58.33 41.67 2.4 -0.6180 53.15
8 35.63 66.67 33.33 3.0 -0.9027 42.92
9 18.26 75.00 25.00 4.0 -1.2459 33.53
10 17.30 83.33 16.67 6.0 -1.7020 24.68
11 16.25 91.67 8.33 12.0 -2.4417 16.07

Arenal Calculado F.Gama.Inv.Excel

N 11 11 Macacara
Xp 81.17 50.00 T.Retorno Tr 1.582
STDx 61.95 27.64 Probabilid Φ( Yi <=y) 0.632
X1 (minimo) 16.25 P.Escala β 47.281
TNp=(Xp-X1)/STDx 1.05 P.forma γ 1.717
L.est.GRAF.2( TNp,N) 0.86 D.Gama.In Γ(Φ, γ, β) 86.340
E.est=X1-(Xp-X1)/(N^ 6.79
F.Gama Γ(1+L) 0.9487 Yp/STDy 1.809 79.55
Θ.est=(Xp-E)/F.G(1+L 85.191 L 0.480
Θ-E 78.400
6.79+(85.191-6.79)*EXP(0.86*W6.79+78.400*EXP(0.86*W)
6.79+(86.34-6.79)*EXP(0.86*W) 6.79+79.549*EXP(0.86*W)
 Octubr Novien Diciemb PROM MAX MIN
Presa Sullana
11.97 9.47 14.58 12.01 14.58 9.47
7.73 7.43 7.28 8.92 13.58 7.28

20 Km
Presa Sullana-Macacara 20 Km
Octubr Novien Diciemb PROM MAX MIN

16.78 14.7 18.34 16.61 18.34 14.7

11.29 10.98 10.69 23.39 11.29 10.69
8.94 9.96 8.17 9.02 9.96 8.17 MACACARA

Macacara-Vatgas Machuca 20 Km 22 Km
Octubr Novien Diciemb PROM MAX MIN

18.09 22.76 21.05 20.63 22.76 18.09

22.59 24.13 21.98 28.46 63.87 14.26
17.27 16.61 15.19 182.42 591.93 15.19 VARGAS MACHUCA

Octubr Novien Diciemb PROM MAX MIN

17.30 16.25 18.26 17.27 18.26 16.25

183.39 174.57 86.12 74.82 183.39 10.37 17 Km

Vargas Machuca-Miramar 17 Km
Octubr Novien Diciemb PROM MAX MIN

16.28 15.78 22.32 18.13 22.32 15.78

13.24 15.58 13.66 27.25 73.13 11.28 MIRAMAR
10.33 10.44 11.84
5.2 Km
Miramar -Mar 5.2 Km 591.33 7.28
MAR
P.Bombeo P.Bombeo
JIBITO MACAC VARGAS ARENAL MIRAMAR
Octubr Novien Diciemb
11.97 9.47 14.58 1 39.82 62.47 65.94 183.39 50.07
 7.73 7.43 7.28 2 16.50 19.33 49.20 174.57 39.38
3 14.78 18.34 28.93 125.62 25.52
4 13.58 16.78 24.13 120.24 22.32
16.78 14.7 18.34 5 11.97 14.70 22.76 86.12 19.11
11.29 10.98 10.69 6 9.86 14.24 22.59 69.02 16.28
8.94 9.96 8.17 7 9.47 11.51 21.98 46.46 16.06
8 7.73 11.29 21.26 35.63 15.78
9 7.62 10.98 21.05 18.26 15.58
18.09 22.76 21.05 10 7.43 10.69 18.20 17.30 13.66
22.59 24.13 21.98 11 7.28 10.31 18.09 16.25 13.24
17.27 16.61 15.19 12 9.96 17.86 12.21
13 8.94 17.78 11.84
14 8.17 17.27 11.28
17.30 16.25 18.26 15 16.61 10.44
183.39 174.57 86.12 16 15.19 10.37
17 10.33

16.28 15.78 22.32

13.24 15.58 13.66
10.33 10.44 11.84

SEQUIA VARGAS MACHUCA

SEQUIA MIRAMAR
V.MachucaV.Machuca MiramarMiramar SEQUIA ARENAL
Medidos Calculados Medidos
Calculados Medidos Calculados

24.13 23.76 19.11 19.00 183.39 192.19

22.76 22.59 16.28 17.17 174.57 148.96
22.59 21.77 16.06 16.01 125.62 122.76
21.98 21.10 15.78 15.14 120.24 103.63
21.26 20.50 15.58 14.42 86.12 88.39
21.05 19.95 13.66 13.80 69.02 75.63
18.20 19.43 13.24 13.25 46.46 64.55
18.09 18.90 12.21 12.74 35.63 54.69
17.86 18.37 11.84 12.26 18.26 45.74
17.78 17.80 11.28 11.80 17.30 37.47
17.27 17.18 10.44 11.35 16.25 29.69
16.61 16.45 10.37 10.89 22.22
15.19 15.48 10.33 10.40 14.83

13 13
19.60 13.55
2.80 2.80
15.19 10.33
1.57 1.15
0.34 0.86
12.02 9.93
 8.399 4.387

V.Machuca
 Analisis de Sequias del Rio Chicama . Para 30 Años de Registro. Estacion El Salinar
Metodo de analisis de Sequias Gumbel

Años m Xi (Medido ) P(Yi>yi )% P( Yi<=yi )% Tr ( Años ) Wi (Var.Red) Caudal.cal1XiCaudal.Excel2Xi

m^3/seg (1-P) % m^3/seg m^3/seg
1 5.02 3.23 96.77 1.0 1.2337 4.33 4.21
2 3.88 6.45 93.55 1.1 1.0083 3.87 3.77
3 3.25 9.68 90.32 1.1 0.8482 3.58 3.48
4 3.23 12.90 87.10 1.1 0.7167 3.35 3.27
5 3.20 16.13 83.87 1.2 0.6013 3.17 3.09
6 3.17 19.35 80.65 1.2 0.4961 3.01 2.93
7 3.08 22.58 77.42 1.3 0.3975 2.87 2.80
8 2.98 25.81 74.19 1.3 0.3035 2.74 2.67
9 2.80 29.03 70.97 1.4 0.2125 2.62 2.56
10 2.69 32.26 67.74 1.5 0.1235 2.51 2.45
11 2.38 35.48 64.52 1.6 0.0355 2.41 2.35
12 2.36 38.71 61.29 1.6 -0.0523 2.31 2.25
13 2.36 41.94 58.06 1.7 -0.1404 2.22 2.16
14 2.09 45.16 54.84 1.8 -0.2295 2.12 2.07
15 1.97 48.39 51.61 1.9 -0.3203 2.03 1.98
16 1.96 51.61 48.39 2.1 -0.4134 1.95 1.90
17 1.96 54.84 45.16 2.2 -0.5095 1.86 1.82
18 1.82 58.06 41.94 2.4 -0.6095 1.78 1.73
19 1.56 61.29 38.71 2.6 -0.7143 1.69 1.65
20 1.37 64.52 35.48 2.8 -0.8250 1.61 1.57
21 1.37 67.74 32.26 3.1 -0.9430 1.52 1.49
22 1.34 70.97 29.03 3.4 -1.0702 1.44 1.40
23 1.19 74.19 25.81 3.9 -1.2090 1.35 1.32
24 1.19 77.42 22.58 4.4 -1.3628 1.26 1.23
25 1.11 80.65 19.35 5.2 -1.5366 1.17 1.14
26 1.06 83.87 16.13 6.2 -1.7379 1.07 1.05
27 1.00 87.10 12.90 7.8 -1.9794 0.97 0.95
28 1.00 90.32 9.68 10.3 -2.2849 0.85 0.84
29 0.77 93.55 6.45 15.5 -2.7077 0.72 0.71
30 0.52 96.77 3.23 31.0 -3.4176 0.56 0.55
N 30 30.0 Calculado con F.Gama.Inv.Excel
Xp 2.123 50.0 1.761
STDx 1.049 28.4 T.Retorno Tr 1.58198 0.500
X1 (minimo) 0.52 Probabilidad Φ( Yi <=y) 0.63212
TNp=(Xp-X1)/STDx 1.53 P.Escala β 0.518
L.est.GRAF.2( TNp,N)) 0.52 P.forma γ 4.097
E.est=X1-(Xp-X1)/(N^L-) 0.190 D.Gama.Inv Γ(Φ, γ, β) 2.309
F.Gama Γ(1+L) 0.887
Θ.est=(Xp-E)/F.G(1+L) 2.369
W=LN(-LN(Pi))
Xi=E+(O-E)*EXP(L*Wi) Xi (1) 0.190+(2.369-0.190)*EXP(0.52*Wi) 2.178 0.19+2.179*EXP(0.52*W)
Xi (2) 0.190+(2.309-0.190)*EXP(0.52*W) 2.119 0.19+2.119*EXP(0.52*W)

Caudales de Sequia para Periodos de retorno Tr y Prob (Yi<=y) %

Periodo.RetornoProbabilidad Pro (Yi <=y) Variable red. Caudal Sequia ( m^3/seg )

Años Pi Yi<=y)% P( Yi>=y)% Wi Xi ( 1 ) Xi ( 2 )

1.01 99.01 0.990 1.53 5.02 4.88

2.0 50.00 50.00 -0.37 1.99 1.94
5.0 20.00 80.00 -1.50 1.19 1.16
10.0 10.00 90.00 -2.25 0.87 0.85
25.0 4.00 96.00 -3.20 0.60 0.59
50.0 2.00 98.00 -3.90 0.48 0.47
100.0 1.00 99.00 -4.60 0.39 0.38