Professional Documents
Culture Documents
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FWSchroeder
Overview of Prospect Analysis
Given the geologic framework and the results of our data analysis,
our next task is to analyze and assess viable prospects:
• Analyze prospect elements
• Source, Migration, Reservoir, Trap, Seal
• Consider the most-likely scenario
• Consider other cases - the range of possibilities
• Assess the prospect
• What volumes of HCs can we expect?
• Will it be oil or gas?
• Risk the Prospect
• What is our level of confidence that all the prospect elements
work?
4. Assessment
A “Container”
5. Risk “Plumbing” To Connect
From Which
Oil & Gas
the Container to the Kitchen Can Be
Produced
A “Kitchen”
Where Organic
Material Is
Cooked
Heather Shale
Sognefjord Shale
both organic poor
Oil
Spill Facies
Point Change
Fault
Leak
Point
Sea Water
Oil Overburden
Fill & Spill
Seal
Reservoir
Oil
Migration
Source
Basement
Oil
Generation 18 Ma
Sea Water
Overburden
Oil
Migration Seal
Reservoir
Oil
Migration
Source
Basement
10 Ma
Oil
Generation
Sea Water
Overburden
Oil
Migration Seal
Reservoir
Oil & Gas
Migration
Source
Basement
Oil
Generation Present
Gas
Generation
Oil
Oil
18 Ma
Map of the Reservoir Unit
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Most-Likely Scenario
Alpha Beta
Oil
Oil
10 Ma
Map of the Reservoir Unit
Courtesy of ExxonMobil FWSchroeder
Most-Likely Scenario
Alpha Beta
Gas
Oil Oil
Present
Map of the Reservoir Unit
Courtesy of ExxonMobil FWSchroeder
Exploration’s Task
Identify
Opportunities Capture
Prime Areas
Acquire
Seismic Data Drill
Process Wildcats
Seismic Data
Interpret
Failure Success
Seismic Data
Assess Confirmation
Prospects Well
1. Volume
Uneconomic Success
2. HC Type
3. Assessment To EMDC
Drop
4. Risk Area or EMPC
Courtesy of ExxonMobil
FWSchroeder
Outline
1. Define prospect elements
2. Estimating trap volumes
3. HC Type
4. Assessment
5. Risk
area? Base 2
Base 1
r r
• DHI Analysis
• AVO Analysis
• HC Systems Analysis
Quantitative
(AVO) between an oil-filled reservoir and a gas-filled
reservoir?
• Model response with different rock & fluid properties
Qualitative
which fluid type should we expect
• What did the source generate
• What did the trap leak or spill
Gas
Oil
Brine
AVO Crossplot
0.4 Gas
Oil
10%
Brine
0.2 Shale
20%
Slope
0.0
30%
-0.2
-0.4
-0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3
Intercept
Courtesy of ExxonMobil FWSchroeder
Questions???
Fluid Contact?
Gas over Oil?
Fluid Contact?
Oil over Water?
• Deterministic Assessment
• One value for each parameter
• One final number, e.g., 200 MBO
• Probabilistic Assessment
• A range of values for each parameter
• A range of outcomes, e.g. 200 ± 50 MBO
Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Alpha Alpha
Min ML Max
12 20 27
100
80%
Economic Minimum
60%
40%
20%
0%
25% Risk
}
• Reservoir Quality - - - - 0.85
• Trap Quality - - - - 1.0 chance of success
0.0